COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread

[TommyGunn]

In covid-world,  you have to be dead in order to write an epitaph.    

[Nick1911]

Remind me why I have to ignore what is front of our faces, mountains of lies in the form of "official" numbers from the beginning, and accept a bullshit stat like half the folks didn't have to die?

Remind me why I have to let an obviously well written tear jerking heart wrenching story overrule my reason?

Your appeal to authority fails because the guy outed himself as a hack as soon as he squirted out his half the folks didn't have to die BS.

I agree that the article was an emotional appeal.  Was the declaration that "half the covid deaths didn't have to happen" true?  Unknown, but it's certainly not substantiated.  The article is a shot in the dark - "Hey, bad things are happening with COVID, a major public holiday is this week... PLEASE stop spreading disease!"

Ron, you claim the official numbers are garbage.  I'm skeptical of that claim - I think that there are certainly some inaccuracies, but I don't think (non-china) numbers are a wholesale fabrication.  My wife works in research at a local hospital, and as an employee receives regular updates of the hospitals operation and status.  They are reaching capacity due to covid patients who require hospitalization, and having issues shifting patients around to make room.  This, I know, is not a fabrication.

The community college where I teach at in the evenings sends out regular status updates internally.  While our students don't appear to be spreading COVID at the college (we're now mostly virtual), the incidents of our students having covid which is caught off-campus have increased substantially.  Most of these guys are young, and will be fine, so there's that.  But, it's another indicator that this disease is spreading.

You ask why we should ignore what's in front of our faces.  But, this is what's in front of my face.

So tell me... what's in front of yours?

[Perd Hapley]

I accept no guilt, shame, or responsibility for the possibility that I might unwittingly transmit an easily communicable disease to another human being, by going about my life as I have for the previous 40-some years. It is what humans have always done, and cannot be entirely avoided. This should be your attitude as well, unless you want to retroactively punish yourself for all the other diseases you may have passed on, by failing to keep a 6-foot distance with all other humans, wearing a mask your entire life, eating inside restaurants, etc.

Maybe for a few weeks all this was reasonable, but it's well past time to end this travesty.

Christ said the poor you will always have with you. I'm not correcting Him, but He could also have included the sick, and those with comorbidities.

[MechAg94]

^^^Ron, remind us again of your medical degrees, board certifications and experience in critical care?  I must have missed that part, and it allows us to give your opinions appropriate weight.

That is almost to the level of Godwin's Law.  


Either way, the emotion and a few BS facts in that article are thick.  It provides no useful information.  He ends it crapping on US pandemic response without offering any useful ideas on what he would change.  Same thing we have been hearing all year from the hypocrites who tell us what we should do and don't do it themselves.  He may not be one of those, but he is taking their side whether it is intentional or not.

[MechAg94]

I agree that the article was an emotional appeal.  Was the declaration that "half the covid deaths didn't have to happen" true?  Unknown, but it's certainly not substantiated.  The article is a shot in the dark - "Hey, bad things are happening with COVID, a major public holiday is this week... PLEASE stop spreading disease!"

Ron, you claim the official numbers are garbage.  I'm skeptical of that claim - I think that there are certainly some inaccuracies, but I don't think (non-china) numbers are a wholesale fabrication.  My wife works in research at a local hospital, and as an employee receives regular updates of the hospitals operation and status.  They are reaching capacity due to covid patients who require hospitalization, and having issues shifting patients around to make room.  This, I know, is not a fabrication.

The community college where I teach at in the evenings sends out regular status updates internally.  While our students don't appear to be spreading COVID at the college (we're now mostly virtual), the incidents of our students having covid which is caught off-campus have increased substantially.  Most of these guys are young, and will be fine, so there's that.  But, it's another indicator that this disease is spreading.

You ask why we should ignore what's in front of our faces.  But, this is what's in front of my face.

So tell me... what's in front of yours?

I have a niece that started to go off to college this Fall.  I think it is all virtual now.  For a while she was doing the COVID dance back and forth as someone would test positive and everyone who may have been in contact with them had to leave or isolate. 

The only part of the numbers I have suspicions about is the total infections.  I am just suspicious the tests are either inaccurate or too sensitive and flagging people that don't have it.  What percentage that might be I have no idea.  That and the issue has been politicized in an election year which makes me automatically suspicious. 

[MillCreek]

Here is something I suspect we could all support: a call for a uniform data standard and reporting on COVID.  We could accomplish a lot more if we were certain to compare apples to apples.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/23/opinion/coronavirus-testing.html

[MechAg94]

Here is something I suspect we could all support: a call for a uniform data standard and reporting on COVID.  We could accomplish a lot more if we were certain to compare apples to apples.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/23/opinion/coronavirus-testing.html

It is a good idea if it can be done right.  Do you think that is likely? 

[MillCreek]

That is almost to the level of Godwin's Law

[kgbsquirrel]

^^^Ron, remind us again of your medical degrees, board certifications and experience in critical care?  I must have missed that part, and it allows us to give your opinions appropriate weight.

Utter *expletive deleted*ing fail.

[dogmush]

The numbers are garbage as we know (garbage in, garbage out) because they admit it, dying with covid is coded dying from covid. Not to mention all the other ambiguities like folks getting coded covid deaths not even being tested, the super sensitivity of common tests popping positive where there is no replicating virus etc. 

And yet some 300,000 more people died in the US in 2020 (so far) than would have been expected.  The US death rate has been pretty stable and predictable for decades, and we have double digit percentages of excess deaths this year.  Certainly *some* deaths were reported as from COVID instead of with COVID, but that's by no means all of them.  It's beginning to look like it wasn't even many of them.  Something definitely killed an extra 300,000 people this year.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

I accept no guilt, shame, or responsibility for the possibility that I might unwittingly transmit an easily communicable disease to another human being, by going about my life as I have for the previous 40-some years. It is what humans have always done, and cannot be entirely avoided.

You can refuse to accept responsibility for easily foreseeable outcomes to your actions, but you still contributed to those outcomes.  The part of your comment I bolded is objectively bullshit.  "Humans have always" reacted to disease and pandemics as best they could at the time, by curtailing activities, quarantining folks, blockading whole cities, and in at least one case I can think of locking someone up on an island for the rest of her life because she refused to stop "going about her life as she always had" and spreading a disease*.  Human history is literally rife with people changing the way they live, temporarily or forever, in an attempt to stop the spread of disease.  Just because a risk can't be entirely avoided does not mean actions shouldn't be taken to mitigate it.


*No COVID-19 is not as bad as Typhoid, and I'm not saying we lock people up and throw away the key.  The point is Humans *normally* change how they live their lives in response to disease.  Refusing to is the outlier.

[makattak]

And yet some 300,000 more people died in the US in 2020 (so far) than would have been expected.  The US death rate has been pretty stable and predictable for decades, and we have double digit percentages of excess deaths this year.  Certainly *some* deaths were reported as from COVID instead of with COVID, but that's by no means all of them.  It's beginning to look like it wasn't even many of them.  Something definitely killed an extra 300,000 people this year.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm


You can refuse to accept responsibility for easily foreseeable outcomes to your actions, but you still contributed to those outcomes.  The part of your comment I bolded is objectively bullshit.  "Humans have always" reacted to disease and pandemics as best they could at the time, by curtailing activities, quarantining folks, blockading whole cities, and in at least one case I can think of locking someone up on an island for the rest of her life because she refused to stop "going about her life as she always had" and spreading a disease*.  Human history is literally rife with people changing the way they live, temporarily or forever, in an attempt to stop the spread of disease.  Just because a risk can't be entirely avoided does not mean actions shouldn't be taken to mitigate it.


*No COVID-19 is not as bad as Typhoid, and I'm not saying we lock people up and throw away the key.  The point is Humans *normally* change how they live their lives in response to disease.  Refusing to is the outlier.

Excess mortality is, sadly, a poor way to measure the impact of the virus.

Without the lockdowns, it could work. Using thrle virus to scare people (or legally prevent them) from getting necessary medical care means that we may have killed more people with the lockdown than the virus.

And not only will we not know for years, the powers that be will actively suppress that conclusion.

[dogmush]

Excess mortality is, sadly, a poor way to measure the impact of the virus.

Without the lockdowns, it could work. Using thrle virus to scare people (or legally prevent them) from getting necessary medical care means that we may have killed more people with the lockdown than the virus.

I agree, it's not great, but it sidesteps the whole "All deaths are reported as COVID, Therefore no numbers are to be believed!" argument so beloved by some.  You'll note I carefully said something killed a lot of extra people.  I did not claim COVID-19 killed 300,000 people.  Certainly some of them were suicides and/or murder brought on by stress, some were other health issues that were deferred and caught up to people, as you say.  But a lot of extra people died this year, and Occam's Razor would imply at least a large portion of those people died of complications from COVID-19.

On your specific hypothesis, if people didn't go to the Dr. out of fear, and died of a different medical condition, we'd expect to see an up tic in non COVID disease deaths.  I can find a Washington Post article from mid summer that I can not read due to not subscribing that claims to see an increase in heart disease deaths over the summer.  (heart disease and stroke being the biggest single cause of death in the US, I figured any data blip would be seen there first), but I can't look at their data due to the paywall.  I found an article from England and Wales showing an increase  in at home heart attack deaths during the lockdown, but it's accompanied by a decrease in hospital deaths, suggesting that while some died that wouldn't have, some more just transferred their death to home from the ER. (https://www.eurekalert.org/multimedia/pub/244268.php)

Total cause of death statistics tend to lag a couple years, so as you said, it may be a while before we really know.

But a bunch of extra people in the US died this year, one way or another.

[Ron]

The fatality rate is well under 1%, remember all the high numbers we told for half the year? 2 1/2%, 3% and even higher were bandied about in the media.

My contention is that even that number is high, the covid fatality rate reported is death WITH covid, nobody denies this.

How about fatality from covid alone? Anyone have the numbers?

Is it true the CDC stopped reporting deaths from flu and pneumonia sometime around the middle of the year?

If someone dies with pneumonia OR any other comorbidity with covid it's a covid death. Why not a pneumonia etc death instead?

Nobody here denies covid exists.

Millcreeks article is just leftist fear porn.

It doesn't help us understand what is going on at all.

Here is a hilarious "fact check" on the low percentage numbers of covid fatalities.

They just can't admit it is low so they twist themselves in knots.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/06/05/fact-check-cdc-estimates-covid-19-death-rate-0-26/5269331002/

*Nick, I've been very forthcoming in the other thread about the impact at work of folks being out due to covid and the contact tracing keeping others out due to our quarantine standards.
  

 

[dogmush]

Then why are so many extra people dying of pneumonia?


and for the record:

My contention is that even that number is high, the covid fatality rate reported is death WITH covid, nobody denies this.

Yes, people do deny it.  In fact the people that are DOING the recording of deaths deny it.  Cases are not counted as a COVID death unless COVID-19 is found to be a contributing cause of death (at minimum).  So if you have a heart attack caused by chronic high blood pressure, while asymptomatic with COVID, that's not a COVID death.

[Ron]

Then why are so many extra people dying of pneumonia?


and for the record:

Yes, people do deny it.  In fact the people that are DOING the recording of deaths deny it.  Cases are not counted as a COVID death unless COVID-19 is found to be a contributing cause of death (at minimum).  So if you have a heart attack caused by chronic high blood pressure, while asymptomatic with COVID, that's not a COVID death.

Well if you have pneumonia AND covid of course covid contributes, how can it not?

Same with the flu, hypertension, COPD and all the other comorbidities.

They aren't even reporting flu and pneumonia deaths as far as I can tell, so how can we say so many more are dying of pneumonia?

Excess deaths is another statistical analysis number being pushed as a hard number.

After the first of the year passes it will be interesting to see how that shakes out.

The "excess deaths" by definition is "more deaths than we predicted".

So once again we are at the mercy of the prognosticators.

[Angel Eyes]

Looks like a growing number of Americans have had enough:

https://idahonews.com/news/coronavirus/boise-mayor-says-protests-planned-in-front-of-her-home

https://www.dailywire.com/news/watch-protesters-gather-in-california-beach-city-to-defy-gov-newsoms-curfew-order

[Ben]

On the first link, the Boise Mayor should have expected it. Her recent statements about arresting people are almost worse than what Coumo is rattling on about.

Also, I guess "Dark Winter" is the new buzz phrase.

[MechAg94]

Yes, people do deny it.  In fact the people that are DOING the recording of deaths deny it.  Cases are not counted as a COVID death unless COVID-19 is found to be a contributing cause of death (at minimum).  So if you have a heart attack caused by chronic high blood pressure, while asymptomatic with COVID, that's not a COVID death.

Except there have been documented cases this year where that is NOT true.  It may not be happening in your area and some of it may have been fixed, but it did happen. 

[dogmush]

Except there have been documented cases this year where that is NOT true.  It may not be happening in your area and some of it may have been fixed, but it did happen. 

Sure.  It happened.  Some were fixed, and some, I'm sure have still not been.  But Ron was claiming that it's a matter of course, which is untrue. 

[Ron]

Sure.  It happened.  Some were fixed, and some, I'm sure have still not been.  But Ron was claiming that it's a matter of course, which is untrue.  

It's true for the state of Illinois.

Pretty sure I've posted the video in this thread of the person in charge explaining how things get coded.

If Illinois, New York and California all use the same loosey goosey non standards in coding just how accurate are the overall numbers?

[Jim147]

Dr Brix has said many times that if you die within 90 days of testing positive for covid, it is a covid death. Doesn't matter if it's a car crash or a gangbang shooting.

As far as excess deaths go, many cities have complained about lockdowns because of the rise of suicide and overdoses while having no or few covid deaths.

Then add in the people dying at home because they are afraid of going to doctor.

I am high risk. I rarely go out. This has killed my income and it is hurting my daughter and friends kids and grandkids.

The information we have on this is so bad I would like to kick everyone that calls themselves an expert in the ass.

[MillCreek]

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/need-covid-nurse-ll-be-8-000-week-n1248652

If you are a critical care nurse and willing to travel, now is the time to cash in.

[ConstitutionCowboy]

I agree that the article was an emotional appeal.  Was the declaration that "half the covid deaths didn't have to happen" true?  Unknown, but it's certainly not substantiated.  The article is a shot in the dark - "Hey, bad things are happening with COVID, a major public holiday is this week... PLEASE stop spreading disease!"

Ron, you claim the official numbers are garbage.  I'm skeptical of that claim - I think that there are certainly some inaccuracies, but I don't think (non-china) numbers are a wholesale fabrication.  My wife works in research at a local hospital, and as an employee receives regular updates of the hospitals operation and status.  They are reaching capacity due to covid patients who require hospitalization, and having issues shifting patients around to make room.  This, I know, is not a fabrication.

The community college where I teach at in the evenings sends out regular status updates internally.  While our students don't appear to be spreading COVID at the college (we're now mostly virtual), the incidents of our students having covid which is caught off-campus have increased substantially.  Most of these guys are young, and will be fine, so there's that.  But, it's another indicator that this disease is spreading.

You ask why we should ignore what's in front of our faces.  But, this is what's in front of my face.

So tell me... what's in front of yours?

This may be anecdotal, but compared to the total deaths in the US from 2018 and 2019, we need around 92,000 more deaths this year to fall in line with those two years.

2018 deaths in the US was 2,839,205
2019 deaths in the US was 2,852,609
2020 deaths in the US as of 11/13/2020 is 2,427,881

At the current rate of deaths, 2020 will top out at approximately 2,774,721. Taking into account the normal upward trend each year during the last 2 prior years, that makes us around 92,151 deaths behind the curve! That's that many extra mouths to feed! Funeral homes on the brink! Inheritances delayed! More reckless old geezers on the roads fouling up traffic! More scam artists feeding on the larger number of the feeble minded! It never stops with the unintended consequences!

It's not nice to subvert the process of natural selection!

Woody

[BobR]

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/need-covid-nurse-ll-be-8-000-week-n1248652

If you are a critical care nurse and willing to travel, now is the time to cash in.

Holy cow, it may be time to come out of retirement! Of course it is one of those jobs where you may contract a disease that could kill or debilitate you. 

bob

[dogmush]

It's true for the state of Illinois.

Pretty sure I've posted the video in this thread of the person in charge explaining how things get coded.

If Illinois, New York and California all use the same loosey goosey non standards in coding just how accurate are the overall numbers?

It's not true.  There was an issue with disparate standards for declaring COVID deaths in the beginning of the pandemic.  CDC realized this and issued nation wide standards early summer.  I linked to those standards in my post.  Unless your argument is that they are just lying.  That's pretty retarded as an argument, because there's no discussion to it.  Any contrary evidence offered is just "a lie".  As we discussed earlier in the pandemic there are verifiable numbers out there, that one can sanity check off of what's actually happening in cities from first hand reports.  You are just to unwilling to go find them, because it counters what's "in front of your face", as if you have first hand knowledge of the entire country.