COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread

[De Selby]

Following much of the "reasoning," would might see a major urban area where 50 people would be shot on a "party weekend," with 5 of them fatal...
 
The "reasoning," therefore, is that there is a 10% chance of dying in that urban area.
 
Using only presented cases as a yardstick, one sees a significantly higher fatality rate. But that must be ignored, because to point out the bias in the data selection is now science denial.
 
"Reasoning" such as this goes back to the initially publicized Seattle nursing home cases - Something like 30% of the residents died...
 
But they didn't publicize how none of the help did... Or that many of the help were also working in other facilities. It is common for medical professionals, especially in fields such is wound prevention/care, to consult in multiple venue.

Lies. Damn lies... And manipulated statistics.

Here’s what you’re missing - if each shooting leads to three more shootings the following week, do the math and see how that becomes big numbers inside 90 days. That’s more like COVID - if you don’t take measures to contain it, the numbers keep growing.

Which is again why you have hundreds of thousands dead, and continuing spread of covid and attendant 1 percent death rate.

[Jim147]

Here’s what you’re missing - if each shooting leads to three more shootings the following week, do the math and see how that becomes big numbers inside 90 days. That’s more like COVID - if you don’t take measures to contain it, the numbers keep growing.

Which is again why you have hundreds of thousands dead, and continuing spread of covid and attendant 1 percent death rate.

Can you show your math on that?

[kgbsquirrel]

I know you like to say that your former colleagues thought you had a Ph.D, but you don't, do you?  Do you have any academic credentials in STEM or healthcare that make you an expert on the subject?  Or are you self-taught?

Defaming someone's expertise for lacking specific approval of others sounds an awful lot like an appeal to authority.

[Nick1911]

Here’s what you’re missing - if each shooting leads to three more shootings the following week, do the math and see how that becomes big numbers inside 90 days. That’s more like COVID - if you don’t take measures to contain it, the numbers keep growing.

Per your example, 3,542,940 dead in 90 days.  By week 20, the death toll exceeds the worlds population.  Unless some of them develop a natural immunity to being killed by bullets with a regiment of monoclonal antibodies, ivermectin, zinc, Vitamin C and desethylhydroxychloroquine.   

[zxcvbob]

Is it vitamin C or D3?  I can't keep up.

[Nick1911]

Is it vitamin C or D3?  I can't keep up.

I don't know, I just pulled up what Aaron Rogers claimed kept him safe from COVID-19.  He also hasn't died of being shot with bullets, so maybe his cure works for that too.

[De Selby]

Per your example, 3,542,940 dead in 90 days.  By week 20, the death toll exceeds the worlds population.  Unless some of them develop a natural immunity to being killed by bullets with a regiment of monoclonal antibodies, ivermectin, zinc, Vitamin C and desethylhydroxychloroquine.   

This! Looking at COVID’s R0, I only wish every investment I ever made multiplied dollars as fast as that disease infects.

But apparently the laws of mathematics do not apply in St Louis. Or more likely, some residents of St Louis are making very bad decisions about the risk covid presents based on their inability to understand said laws.

[bedlamite]

Is it vitamin C or D3?  I can't keep up.

Both.

https://covid19criticalcare.com/covid-19-protocols/i-mask-plus-protocol/

[Bogie]

No, it is not - The math of cases vs deaths works out like everywhere else. Your hard math fail is why you can’t see that.

Again: looking at some locality, ignoring infection rates and outcomes of those infections, and declaring “only .2 percent died” is exactly the same flawed reasoning that would lead you to conclude Ebola is not that bad.

There is no strawman here - that’s exactly what Bogie is claiming. You can only arrive at such a wrongheaded position by not examining the rate of spread, and the outcomes for the number of cases you have.

Why aren't we all dead? It couldn't be the play quarantines, or the "not for medical use" masks...
 
I know this may bother you, but if you can get up, by yourself, walk out your front door, go to a stadium, and make it to your seat without assistance - you ain't the target market of the bug...

[Bogie]

Gee, I'm really sorry that real life hasn't agreed with academia...

[De Selby]

Why aren't we all dead? It couldn't be the play quarantines, or the "not for medical use" masks...
 
I know this may bother you, but if you can get up, by yourself, walk out your front door, go to a stadium, and make it to your seat without assistance - you ain't the target market of the bug...

This is staggeringly bad risk assessment.

Why didn’t the challenger blow up the first few times it flew with a bad o ring?

Why didn’t the guy refusing to wear a seatbelt die?

How many people didn’t wear body armor in Iraq and Afghanistan but still didn’t cop bullet holes or blast wounds???

The answer to your question lies in the math - not every person who does something stupid gets killed every time for it. But one of the things we learned in modern times is that mathematics can show us the relative risk of events happening, and that leads to good things like insurance pools and then safety measures like seatbelts that reduce that relative risk.

1 percent of St Louis hasn’t died because 100 percent hasn’t yet caught covid. And maybe those masks and shut downs were part of the reason why - you literally cite a good explanation for why the brakes are on the biology of covid, then through handwavium dismiss it as impossible.

Reading stuff like this makes me think I should’ve gone into the gambling business - if a substantial number of people are this bad at math it must be child’s play to fleece them.

[Bogie]

And you are completely discounting the people who were immune off the bat, along with the number of people (supposed to be the vast majority, according to Karen, who is damn scared of "asymptomatic carriers"), who never bothered to get tested, who never went to see a doctor, because they... never showed any symptoms.
 
And I figure you hate them.

[zxcvbob]

I think they are making such a big deal about "omicron" because it is so contagious (like measles) but not particularly dangerous.  It puts those making money off the vaccines at great risk; what if omicron sweeps across America and everybody gets it and recovers without any drama?  Now we all have robust natural immunity that may well carry over to all the variants and don't need a vaccine. 

Can you imagine anything worse?  My company is peddling a "vaccine passport" app.  It would be a catastrophe for them.

[Bogie]

Just tell someone that their chance of dying from the bug are less than half of what they've been told.
 
They'll get angry at you.

[De Selby]

And you are completely discounting the people who were immune off the bat, along with the number of people (supposed to be the vast majority, according to Karen, who is damn scared of "asymptomatic carriers"), who never bothered to get tested, who never went to see a doctor, because they... never showed any symptoms.
 
And I figure you hate them.

Hahahahahaha are you actually pulling the “THEY HATE OUR FREEDOM!” line?

Hard math fail backed up by decent history fail

[Bogie]

Uh... Your "hard math" is based on what?
 
You're ASSUMING, based upon  your model, that each patient will infect three others, if I am able to understand that...
 
And so forth.
 
That has not happened. That didn't even happen in isolated populations.
 
And no, it wasn't because of masks that you could drive a road train through.

You are also ASSUMING that 1% of those infected will die... (down from 2%, but hey...)

And completely disregarding that you are ASSUMING that everyone who catches the bug will present for treatment.

And you are now IGNORING the big bugaboo of "zomg, the asymptomatic walk among us" of the people who catch it, and beat it like a rented stepchild...

In your sick world, all of the non-compliant catch it, and many of them die.

In what seems to have been happening? Some folks get sick. Most don't. Life will go on. Because you don't need to be sick to be immune.

And it has been two years. Not two weeks.

While all the time, we have bureaucrats who are frickin' HOPING for huge numbers to use to justify their programs - and their existence.

Maybe that's why anyone who differs, and looks at "hard math," gets shouted down by the people who have now redefined "science."

They never named every new version of the common cold before. Now they have that power - the power for headlines, and research grants and... power...

How many colds have you had in your life? Here's another one. Don't go visit Gramma if you have the snifflies.

[Ben]

This is interesting. The research hasn't gone through peer review yet, but it suggests that covid both infects fat cells and also "hides" in them.

https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-may-infect-fat-tissue

[Ben]

Another paper awaiting peer review. It bolsters the mounting evidence regarding the robustness of natural immunity.

https://www.theepochtimes.com/natural-immunity-more-protective-over-time-than-covid-19-vaccination-study_4149953.html

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.04.21267114v1.full.pdf

[sumpnz]

This is interesting. The research hasn't gone through peer review yet, but it suggests that covid both infects fat cells and also "hides" in them.

https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-may-infect-fat-tissue

So the food pyramid, which is partly responsible for the obesity epidemic, was part of the Covid conspiracy?!!??eleventy???

[Perd Hapley]

The reasoning you’re using is horribly flawed here. If you applied the same method to Ebola you would conclude it’s not really that bad, since 0 percent of St Louis died of it last year. That example is what’s wrong with your entire approach to COVID.

Hard math is not enough. Mighty big reasoning fail here, so maths won't help you.

As an aside, is it math or maths in Australia?

[MechAg94]

Hard math is not enough. Mighty big reasoning fail here, so maths won't help you.

As an aside, is it math or maths in Australia?

It is whatever the Australian Govt tells De Selby it is. 

[De Selby]

Uh... Your "hard math" is based on what?
 
You're ASSUMING, based upon  your model, that each patient will infect three others, if I am able to understand that...
 
And so forth.
 
That has not happened. That didn't even happen in isolated populations.
 
And no, it wasn't because of masks that you could drive a road train through.

You are also ASSUMING that 1% of those infected will die... (down from 2%, but hey...)

And completely disregarding that you are ASSUMING that everyone who catches the bug will present for treatment.

And you are now IGNORING the big bugaboo of "zomg, the asymptomatic walk among us" of the people who catch it, and beat it like a rented stepchild...

In your sick world, all of the non-compliant catch it, and many of them die.

In what seems to have been happening? Some folks get sick. Most don't. Life will go on. Because you don't need to be sick to be immune.

And it has been two years. Not two weeks.

While all the time, we have bureaucrats who are frickin' HOPING for huge numbers to use to justify their programs - and their existence.

Maybe that's why anyone who differs, and looks at "hard math," gets shouted down by the people who have now redefined "science."

They never named every new version of the common cold before. Now they have that power - the power for headlines, and research grants and... power...

How many colds have you had in your life? Here's another one. Don't go visit Gramma if you have the snifflies.

Okay man, I’m the one posting medical journals and actual statistics. You’re sitting here calling that assumption, and then making up your own reasons why all the numbers are fake.

There’s a whole lot of assuming going on, but it’s being done by you - you are assuming that your defective reasoning hasn’t been accounted for in medical research on covid (probably because you’re not reading any of it), and then assuming the risks of the disease are in line with your own completely fabricated beliefs about it.

[De Selby]

Hard math is not enough. Mighty big reasoning fail here, so maths won't help you.

As an aside, is it math or maths in Australia?

You’re welcome to explain how it’s a “reasoning fail” to posit that the best way to assess covid risk is to look at published research about it.

Australians tend to say maths.

[Bogie]

We've had two years of handwavium...
 
One of the CSOs I worked for called it the "and now magic happens!" moment when a researcher had something that couldn't be explained - and that was NOT a good thing...

Why aren't we all dead? Especially the untouchable essentials, who haven't been having everything delivered?

Explain that?
 
Because the vanity masks don't do anything to stop the spread. The vaccine doesn't do anything to stop the spread. Fighting over toilet paper sure doesn't do anything to stop the spread.

I figure that most people have either had it, or won't catch it, but hey, there will mutations forever. Just like other viruses which have always caused what we call "the common cold."
 
One does not "believe" in science. One either proves, or disproves, the theories.
 
And the instant you assume that your theories are engraved in stone, and cannot be questioned, you have lost.

[dogmush]

 
Because the vanity masks don't do anything to stop the spread. The vaccine doesn't do anything to stop the spread.

These two statements  are demonstrably,  provably false.  And have been so proven, several times on this site alone. 

Just because a control measure isn't 100% effective,  or even 50% effective,  doesn't  mean it does nothing.  Several people on this site have brought legitimate questions about whether or not the usefulness of masks are worth the costs, which is a conversation I wish the country had actually had.

But to say they and vaccines "don't do anything" is just idiotic. It shows cult like belief in untruths.