US signs peace deal with the Taliban

[MillCreek]

https://www.npr.org/2020/02/29/810537586/u-s-signs-peace-deal-with-taliban-after-nearly-2-decades-of-war-in-afghanistan?utm_medium=social&utm_term=nprnews&utm_campaign=npr&utm_source=facebook.com&fbclid=IwAR3Tm8jJmcapPOYfYA0O88kJ5rD6qspgD50Kasy5WBuiueL9K8gW5CM0hlc

All US, Coalition and security contractor forces to be out of Afghanistan within 14 months.  The Afghanistan war has cost almost 2400 American lives and over $1 trillion. I wish the Afghans well and will be curious to see if the country holds together.  Much respect to President Trump for accomplishing this.

[WLJ]

curious to see if the country holds together.  

Afghanistan is nothing more than a collection of tribes that have hated each other long before we got involved and will remain so long after we're gone. They have no national identity in any way shape or form as we understand it and I seriously doubt they ever will. The other thing they hate more than each other is outsiders. Ask the British and the Russians.

[Ben]

Afghanistan is nothing more than a collection of tribes that have hated each other long before we got involved and will remain so long after we're gone. They have no national identity in any way shape or form as we understand it and I seriously doubt they ever will. The other thing they hate more than each other is outsiders. Ask the British and the Russians.

Yeah, I'm kinda of "meh" on the whole thing. I agree that it's  good Trump did this, but history shows it's always a losing proposition dealing with these people. They hate everybody in general, and always take turns hating each other. It's a millennia length game that I don't see changing anytime soon.

[RocketMan]

Agreed that nothing will change in A-stan.  Hopefully we'll actually withdraw instead of sticking around when the Taliban eventually renege on the deal.

[Ron]

They are not the enemy of our country we need to be so concerned with that we need to occupy their land.

Bigger fish to fry out there.

[RoadKingLarry]

Has the Taliban violated the terms of the deal yet?

[sumpnz]

About all it should say is "Don't start nothin', won't be nothin'.  We'll be gone in x weeks.  *expletive deleted*ck with us and we won't have the mercy you've been used to getting.  Have a nice day."

[MechAg94]

I am happy to hear this.  I don't think there is anything there worth US lives.

[lee n. field]

They must have found some other way to protect the opium investments.

[Andiron]

About all it should say is "Don't start nothin', won't be nothin'.  We'll be gone in x weeks.  *expletive deleted*ck with us and we won't have the mercy you've been used to getting.  Have a nice day."

Should've sent you instead of Pompeo.  That's Mattis level rhetoric Afghan goat herders and poppy growers should be able to grasp.

[AJ Dual]

Should've sent you instead of Pompeo.  That's Mattis level rhetoric Afghan goat herders and poppy growers should be able to grasp.

Despite my Libertarian/AnCap leanings, I'm not totally opposed to invading portions of the Middle East whenever there's something going on there that's a credible threat to Western Civilization.

I'm just opposed to occupying anything in the Middle East.

For the price of the Iraq and Afghanistan occupations, we could have invaded those places, or others as needed, repeatedly, and with the higher body count (I mean theirs) and op-tempo we normally get during the initial contact, killed lots and lots of Islamist militants in the process, and not exposed our forces to attrition due to garrison strategy.

Invade, kill, leave, repeat. That should be our strategy. If moderate/pro-Western forces or governments can then exploit the power vacuum and take up shop, all the better. If not, we just invade, kill, and leave again and again.

[MechAg94]

I think the body count would be lower with a plan like that.  It seems to me it was the occupation and roadside bombs that ramped up our casualty count.  I don't have numbers though. 

[HankB]

Maybe there's merit in the old saying that "Rubble doesn't make trouble" . . .

Boots on the ground tends to up our casualties.

[AJ Dual]

I think the body count would be lower with a plan like that.  It seems to me it was the occupation and roadside bombs that ramped up our casualty count.  I don't have numbers though. 

I meant their body count. And yes, you're absolutely right. Ours goes up through long term attrition.

[Angel Eyes]

Has the Taliban violated the terms of the deal yet?

Well ...

https://globalnews.ca/news/6619648/taliban-afghanistan-troops-attacks/

The Taliban military commission on Monday issued an order to its fighters on the ground to resume attacks against Afghan forces and the “the Kabul puppet administration,” but not against foreigners.

[Andiron]

Despite my Libertarian/AnCap leanings, I'm not totally opposed to invading portions of the Middle East whenever there's something going on there that's a credible threat to Western Civilization.

I'm just opposed to occupying anything in the Middle East.

For the price of the Iraq and Afghanistan occupations, we could have invaded those places, or others as needed, repeatedly, and with the higher body count (I mean theirs) and op-tempo we normally get during the initial contact, killed lots and lots of Islamist militants in the process, and not exposed our forces to attrition due to garrison strategy.

Invade, kill, leave, repeat. That should be our strategy. If moderate/pro-Western forces or governments can then exploit the power vacuum and take up shop, all the better. If not, we just invade, kill, and leave again and again.

I'm generally opposed to just quoting something and saying that I agree with it, but that's all i've got here.  Add that to Sumpnz's doctrine and I think you've got a workable foreign policy for the 3rd world.  *expletive deleted*ck with us and we'll destroy you.  Anything else,  you do you.

[French G.]

Returns to deal with breaches of the agreement should be a drogue chute pulling a MOAB out of the back of a Herc. No boots, no ground. Another 9/11 here? Tactical nuke. Say that up front at the talks.

[Ben]

Well, that didn't last long:

https://twitchy.com/gregp-3534/2020/03/04/new-us-forces-launched-an-airstrike-overnight-against-the-taliban/

[MechAg94]

Returns to deal with breaches of the agreement should be a drogue chute pulling a MOAB out of the back of a Herc. No boots, no ground. Another 9/11 here? Tactical nuke. Say that up front at the talks.

I doubt it will be too many more years before we have hypersonic missiles and orbital weapons to use. 

[MechAg94]

Well, that didn't last long:

https://twitchy.com/gregp-3534/2020/03/04/new-us-forces-launched-an-airstrike-overnight-against-the-taliban/

I have my doubts that are exit will be peaceful or clean, but we should get out anyway.  I am sure they will still be fighting when we leave.

[Ben]

I have my doubts that are exit will be peaceful or clean, but we should get out anyway.  I am sure they will still be fighting when we leave.

Of the latter, there is no doubt.

[kgbsquirrel]

Well, that didn't last long:

https://twitchy.com/gregp-3534/2020/03/04/new-us-forces-launched-an-airstrike-overnight-against-the-taliban/

Cue anditsgone.jpg

[dogmush]

Returns to deal with breaches of the agreement should be a drogue chute pulling a MOAB out of the back of a Herc. No boots, no ground. Another 9/11 here? TacticalStrategic  nuke. Say that up front at the talks.

FTFY. 

In many place in the world there's room for garrison, and limited engagement where needed.  The Mideast has a different culture.  Our mideast policy should be titled "*expletive deleted*ck Around and Find Out".

Cause here's the deal: You want to really slow down violence in the mideast?  You need to remove the fighter part of the culture.  We even have a template for that.  What percentage of the Japanese population in 1941 was still alive in 1945?  What percentage of the military age male population died in the same time period?  There's your base numbers for "Remove warrior from warrior culture".  Extrapolate to the population of the mid east and you have a rough order of magnitude who we need to kill.

Otherwise, let's just take our toys and go home.

[WLJ]

FTFY.  

In many place in the world there's room for garrison, and limited engagement where needed.  The Mideast has a different culture.  Our mideast policy should be titled "*expletive deleted*ck Around and Find Out".

Cause here's the deal: You want to really slow down violence in the mideast?  You need to remove the fighter part of the culture.  We even have a template for that.  What percentage of the Japanese population in 1941 was still alive in 1945?  What percentage of the military age male population died in the same time period?  There's your base numbers for "Remove warrior from warrior culture".  Extrapolate to the population of the mid east and you have a rough order of magnitude who we need to kill.

Otherwise, let's just take our toys and go home.

Huge different though. Japan was a one nation state with an extreme national identity and where the emperor pointed the nation went as one. Afgan is just a collection of tribes 90%+ of whom have a 12th century mindset as far as these things go and want to remain that way.

[dogmush]

Certainly it's not a direct translation.  That's why I used the words "template" and "rough order of magnitude".

But the Afghans, and other jihadists in the mideast, are just as steeped in their cultural identity and being fighters/warriors as the Japanese were.  Maybe more.  I throw that example out there as a way of saying pointing out how much it takes to force an extreme cultural shift.  That's what it would take.  Short of that and we're pissing up a rope.  I don't think the US, or the West at large, has the appetite to actually kill enough people that we can leave and they'd just leave us alone.  Probably better for all concerned to just get ready for the next attack.