COVID19 predictions

[HeroHog]

Age group 60-69: 37.41 million Americans  * 50% infection rate * 4.5% CFR = 800k dead.

Lesse, 63 next month, morbidly overweight, cancer, Type II Diabetes, Blood pressure "ok" with meds, some heart issues, and LOTS of other stuff that probably won't kill me but make life pretty sucky.
I'll be fine. Everything's just fine.

[Nick1911]

[HeroHog]

21 Million Fewer Cellphone Users in China May Suggest a High CCP Virus Death Toll
https://youtu.be/wfDAcuSMSZo

[HeroHog]

CDC says coronavirus survived in Princess Cruise ship cabins for up to 17 days after passengers left
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/23/cdc-coronavirus-survived-in-princess-cruise-cabins-up-to-17-days-after-passengers-left.html

[Jamisjockey]

I shouldn’t have resorted to name calling and I apologize.  And yes 1) it violates the code of conduct of APS 2) I’ve been called out by other moderators on it.

[RocketMan]

I shouldn’t have resorted to name calling and I apologize.  And yes 1) it violates the code of conduct of APS 2) I’ve been called out by other moderators on it.

Thanks, Jamis.  Apology accepted.

[brimic]

https://twitter.com/ndrew_lawrence/status/1242245135129346050?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1242245135129346050&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fworld%2F2020%2Fmar%2F24%2Folder-people-would-rather-die-than-let-covid-19-lockdown-harm-us-economy-texas-official-dan-patrick

Well, here's one guy who is willing to sacrifice the elderly on the altar of the almighty dollar.

[makattak]

https://twitter.com/ndrew_lawrence/status/1242245135129346050?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1242245135129346050&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fworld%2F2020%2Fmar%2F24%2Folder-people-would-rather-die-than-let-covid-19-lockdown-harm-us-economy-texas-official-dan-patrick

Well, here's one guy who is willing to sacrifice the elderly on the altar of the almighty dollar.

From the quote, he said they were willing to take a risk and NOT shut down the entire economy.

That's a far cry from, "Let's kill off Grandma!" It's a measured risk that can be rationally disagreed about. Those elderly can much more easily, with much smaller disruptions, self-quarantine. Few of them have jobs and have to go out.

If they're really concerned, the state/city/county/neighbors/etc... can provide delivery services to the at risk population and allow them to self-quarantine more easily.

[brimic]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/23/fed-announces-a-slew-of-new-programs-to-help-markets-including-open-ended-asset-purchases.html

Make America 2009 Again!

or

Welcome to ZimbabwUSA

[Ron]

I read this guy pretty regularly, he's been running a series about this event.

He, like some here, is absolutely mortified by the government/social response and unreasonable panic.

In a couple weeks we'll have a better idea of who is right.

A lot of his discussion is well out of my wheel house, he's a statistician.

https://wmbriggs.com/post/29886/

[MechAg94]

https://twitter.com/ndrew_lawrence/status/1242245135129346050?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1242245135129346050&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fworld%2F2020%2Fmar%2F24%2Folder-people-would-rather-die-than-let-covid-19-lockdown-harm-us-economy-texas-official-dan-patrick

Well, here's one guy who is willing to sacrifice the elderly on the altar of the almighty dollar.

Listening to the actual interview, that is not at all what he said.  He said he was told by elderly people that they were not willing to destroy the country just to guarantee their own survival.  That makes some sense.  

If we are going to sacrifice Liberty and the Pursuit of Happiness in order to guarantee Life, I think most will find that isn't a very good trade in the long run.  Short term events like this can have very lasting impact.  I think there is a way to get through this without that sort of trade off.

[Ron]

Epidemiologist bucking the trend.

https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-03-22/coronavirus-outbreak-nobel-laureate?fbclid=IwAR0KTjKo-TO06FbceRno2yptgSmnBSe9BX80NztGXNCRf6UCIc5cgJiFffw

[brimic]

Epidemiologist bucking the trend.

https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-03-22/coronavirus-outbreak-nobel-laureate?fbclid=IwAR0KTjKo-TO06FbceRno2yptgSmnBSe9BX80NztGXNCRf6UCIc5cgJiFffw

Except he's relying on Chinese data...
The Chinese death toll stopped at around 3000 because the Winnie the Pooh declared that the COVID-19 deaths would stop.

[Ron]

Except he's relying on Chinese data...
The Chinese death toll stopped at around 3000 because the Winnie the Pooh declared that the COVID-19 deaths would stop.

That's one reason I'm not freaking about the shutdown.

As a plebe I have very unreliable sources of information in general.

My hueristic is if a politician or China says it, beware! If the media reports it consider the opposite of the reporting as the potential truth 😁

[charby]

A quote from a friend, he's an really annoying numbers engineering guy.

Tuberculosis is the only disease that kills more people per day, as of today. By this weekend covid-19 will be the deadliest disease on our planet in terms of daily deaths. #1 spot in 8 weeks. I sincerely hope that its decline is as fast as its rise.

The chart he referenced (global not just USA)

[Sindawe]

21 Million Fewer Cellphone Users in China May Suggest a High CCP Virus Death Toll
https://youtu.be/wfDAcuSMSZo

Well, I *AM* in a days walking distance from Boulder CO.  So I got that going for me. 

My gut tells me this is gonna get REAL ugly in the U.S. REAL soon.  Numbers of cases are on the up-slope, I'm reading of Hospitals on the East coast near the breaking point and staff getting sick due to no PPE for them.

But then, back in the day my gut told me that one of our male friends visiting my ex in the evening while I was at work was not a problem.

Does that seam right to you? 

[K Frame]

"21 Million Fewer Cellphone Users in China May Suggest a High CCP Virus Death Toll"

 

It could also suggest something else... say... China shutting down huge numbers of cell phone users to keep them from easily getting information out about the virus. But China wouldn't do that, would they?

[Jamisjockey]

"21 Million Fewer Cellphone Users in China May Suggest a High CCP Virus Death Toll"

 

It could also suggest something else... say... China shutting down huge numbers of cell phone users to keep them from easily getting information out about the virus. But China wouldn't do that, would they?

Hell, the simplest answer is they lost jobs and can't pay the bill.

I don't believe China at all. They need the world economy to start back up more than Trump does.  But I really doubt that 15million+ died in china and there's not been a peep about it.
Not even China could hide 15 million deaths.

[Ben]

Not even China could hide 15 million deaths.

With Tor, etc., even in a clamped down society like China, something that big would get out. If nothing else, all those "incinerator" images would be about 1000X more prevalent.

[RocketMan]

The Chinese phone thing could be the government mandating everyone change over to 5G so they could have the latest and greatest phone tech to better control their citizens.  Corona virus may have thrown a wrench in the process.

[MillCreek]

15 million dead is a lot of mass graves, and you would think that various governments or private industry would be releasing the satellite images.

[bedlamite]

15 million dead is a lot of mass graves, and you would think that various governments or private industry would be releasing the satellite images.

Ashes don't require mass graves you can see from space.

https://prepforthat.com/china-coronavirus-mobile-incinerators/

[AJ Dual]

I think that some portion of the Chinese figures for lost cell phone lines is the dead, but I'm guessing that number is going to be in the 6 figures, not 7 or 8. Whatever Italy has for a CFR, multiplied by their population difference. I personally peg China's death number from Covid to be around 200,000 +/- 20%.

Despite all their censorship, we're too connected and rumors and testimony through personal phone calls to family etc. would be leaking out.

[Pb]

People are working on ways to convert CPAP machines to ventilators... there is a supposed to be a working prototype being submitted to the FDA.  Let's hope it gets approved asap.  Then the plans can be distributed to whoever needs them.

[Nick1911]

US data, plotted on a log scale:



We can break this with VERY aggressive action, but judging by what a lockdown looks like in Kansas City, it doesn't seem aggressive enough.