COVID19 predictions

[bedlamite]

https://swarajyamag.com/insta/japan-to-pay-its-firms-2-billion-from-covid-19-stimulus-package-to-shift-production-out-of-china

[RoadKingLarry]

That's a plan I would love to see implemented in the US.

[MillCreek]

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/04/04/kurzarbeit-coronavirus-pandemic-america-unemployment-apocalypse-europe-not/

It will be interesting to see how this shakes out in Europe vs. the USA.

[Jamisjockey]

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/04/04/kurzarbeit-coronavirus-pandemic-america-unemployment-apocalypse-europe-not/

It will be interesting to see how this shakes out in Europe vs. the USA.

We choose to spend $2T mostly to bail out businesses.  We could have paid every person in the US $24,000 with that money.  Do I agree with it? No.  But we'd have a lot of people with money ready to spend in 2 months.  Instead, we'll have a lot of businesses pulling stunts like buying up their own stock, cutting salaries, and paying CEO bonuses.  And double digit unemployment will still be there at the end of this year.

[dogmush]

We choose to spend $2T mostly to bail out businesses.  We could have paid every person in the US $24,000 with that money.  Do I agree with it? No.  But we'd have a lot of people with money ready to spend in 2 months.  Instead, we'll have a lot of businesses pulling stunts like buying up their own stock, cutting salaries, and paying CEO bonuses.  And double digit unemployment will still be there at the end of this year.

Might want to check your decimal places there.

[Jamisjockey]

Might want to check your decimal places there.

Oops you're right.  $6116.  So it would need to be capped and only go to adults to make a real impact. 
$6116 is still more than most are getting from the stimulus though.  For a lot of people that's 3 months of rent plus utilities.

[Ben]

My understanding is that the money going to businesses comes with caveats like no bonuses for execs.

I just don't know where I stand on all this spending, but if companies and small businesses go out of business due to mandatory gov shutdowns, there are no jobs to go back to for the unemployed. I don't think you can help just one without helping the other.

I'm much more concerned with the money that goes to the Kennedy Center and other commie pinko causes. We'll see if my math is right, but $25 million/$25,000 = 1000 small businesses that could get $25,000, which could be the difference between hanging on and going under before this is over.

[MechAg94]

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/04/04/kurzarbeit-coronavirus-pandemic-america-unemployment-apocalypse-europe-not/

It will be interesting to see how this shakes out in Europe vs. the USA.

America Is Having an Unemployment Apocalypse. Europe Chose Not to.

What was the unemployment % in Europe before all this? 

[dogmush]

America Is Having an Unemployment Apocalypse. Europe Chose Not to.

What was the unemployment % in Europe before all this? 

Don't know about the EU as a whole, but since the article mostly talked about Germany:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/375209/unemployment-rate-in-germany/

Low 3%'s last year and under 5% since 2014.

[Fly320s]

Does the EU and/or Germany have strict labor laws where firing or furlough employees is almost impossible?

[Ben]

Benny
✔
@bennyjohnson

During this crisis people have been arrested for:

- Going to church
- Playing with their own kids
- Being in their own yard
- Paddle boarding
- Not wearing a mask
- Jogging on a beach

Perhaps the biggest victory for China during China Virus has been the world turning into China

[charby]

Does the EU and/or Germany have strict labor laws where firing or furlough employees is almost impossible?

Great Britain does, friend over there told me if your unemployed you get assigned a job.

[dogmush]

Does the EU and/or Germany have strict labor laws where firing or furlough employees is almost impossible?

It was mentioned in the linked article that Germany has made it pretty difficult to fire and/or furlough workers.

[MechAg94]

I have heard France has OT rules that strictly limit the amount of overtime an hourly worker can put in.  It forces industrial plants to hire more workers to cover vacation, etc. 

[Jamisjockey]

It was mentioned in the linked article that Germany has made it pretty difficult to fire and/or furlough workers.

Pretty much most EU countries have gone that way.  Can't work too many hours, mandatory sick time and vacation, etc.

On paper, they will look better than us coming out of lockdown. 

[Viking]

Pretty much most EU countries have gone that way.  Can't work too many hours, mandatory sick time and vacation, etc.

On paper, they will look better than us coming out of lockdown. 

We have yet to get locked down here in Sweden. Only restriction is that they banned all gathering of more than 500 people to begin with, and then lowered it to 50. But bars and pubs and restaurants are still open for business as usual, although they have been seeing fewer patrons since the start of the outbreak. But no businesses have been closed due to government orders, no travel restrictions etc. We´ll see how it goes. Right now we aren´t doing too well compared to Denmark and Norway, who both have roughly half of our population each but only 1/4 of the deaths that we do. As of the latest figures we have just over 900 confirmed dead and 10500 confirmed infected.

[Ben]

We have yet to get locked down here in Sweden. Only restriction is that they banned all gathering of more than 500 people to begin with, and then lowered it to 50. But bars and pubs and restaurants are still open for business as usual, although they have been seeing fewer patrons since the start of the outbreak. But no businesses have been closed due to government orders, no travel restrictions etc. We´ll see how it goes. Right now we aren´t doing too well compared to Denmark and Norway, who both have roughly half of our population each but only 1/4 of the deaths that we do. As of the latest figures we have just over 900 confirmed dead and 10500 confirmed infected.

Interesting on many fronts. That's a ~10% mortality rate for reported infections. What is the percentage of people over say, 60 years of age in your total population?

[BobR]

I just heard that Finland closed down their borders today.











That means no one can cross the Finnish line!!!




Bada-bing….. I'll be here all week, tip your waitress on the way out!!


bob

[Viking]

Interesting on many fronts. That's a ~10% mortality rate for reported infections. What is the percentage of people over say, 60 years of age in your total population?

Yep, but only for reported infection - keep in mind our government has been playing catching up with trying to get people tested. As for % of population over the age of 60 I have not found any easy statistics to look at right now. Interestingly, in the beginning while we still had merely 50 or so dead, the majority of these were in Stockholm, which is not unusual. The unusual thing was that half of those dead in Stockholm were of Somali heritage. Interestingly, by today´s statistics,about half of the confirmed cases are in Stockholm, which is the capital and biggest city. The casualty rates mirror this quite well. However, my region/county (Think British county, not American county) which also covers Gothenburg, aka second biggest city, only has somewhat less than 1100 cases in total and 50 or so dead. Likewise, Stockholm has almost 200 cases per 100k citizens, my county/region has just over 60/100k. Whether this disrepancy is because of testing I do not know.

Edit to add: Not the exact age range, but 20% of our population is above the age of 65.

[Ben]

Edit to add: Not the exact age range, but 20% of our population is above the age of 65.

US reports ~15% above 65, so you do have more older people than we do, though there are of course, other factors as well. The Somalis are interesting given China's recent quarantine of black people.

[Perd Hapley]

About a week old, but Bill Whittle has some predictions in this vidja:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1iPOlKCGtY0

[Ron]

The CDC actually breaks down the numbers.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

[Andiron]

I just heard that Finland closed down their borders today.


That means no one can cross the Finnish line!!!

Russians could've told you that...

[Jim147]

32T in debt before this year is done.

[bedlamite]

I was wondering when this would go rodeo

https://ktla.com/news/nationworld/michigan-police-probe-whether-security-guard-killed-at-family-dollar-store-was-shot-for-refusing-entry-to-customer-without-mask/