COVID19 predictions

[Ron]

That's not just the numbers from long ago either. The deaths for recent years, that are so commonly used as comparison for Covid19, are "fake statistics" too.

We don't know the actual flu death numbers either, they are extrapolated after the fact.

They don't run antibody tests every year to get the numbers.

[MillCreek]

Based on the health department briefings, there does not yet seem to be very much medical research findings supporting the concept of herd immunity from being infected by the virus. There are certainly numbers of people who have had COVID as confirmed by testing, and then contracted it again.  Herd immunity will work once a substantial percentage of the population gets an effective vaccine.

[charby]

The article is far less dogmatic than you or the fearmongers.

They actually give three divergent scenerios admitting they don't know.

If I'm a "fearmonger" does that make you an ostrich?

[makattak]

Based on the health department briefings, there does not yet seem to be very much medical research findings supporting the concept of herd immunity from being infected by the virus. There are certainly numbers of people who have had COVID as confirmed by testing, and then contracted it again.  Herd immunity will work once a substantial percentage of the population gets an effective vaccine.

If you can get it again after being infected, how is a vaccine going to be effective?

[Ron]

If I'm a "fearmonger" does that make you an ostrich?

Questioning the use of bad data, incomplete data as well as questioning the worst models ever, maybe even worse than the climate models, is using good judgement not being an ostrich.

Questioning the narrative being promulgated by the treasonous press and their treasonous Democrat lackeys is smart and wise, not being an ostrich.

One thing you can count on being true, the official media and government narrative is never true.   

[charby]

Questioning the use of bad data, incomplete data as well as questioning the worst models ever, maybe even worse than the climate models, is using good judgement not being an ostrich.

Questioning the narrative being promulgated by the treasonous press and their treasonous Democrat lackeys is smart and wise, not being an ostrich.

One thing you can count on being true, the official media and government narrative is never true.   

The data is so new, disease hasn't run it current course and it's been 102 years since the last real global pandemic (and we are a very global world). You can't make a final answer on what you are given in minutes, hours or even days.

Perhaps aren't your curious why this hasn't exploded like predicted back in March because the social/economic controls actually worked?

[Ron]

The data is so new, disease hasn't run it current course and it's been 102 years since the last real global pandemic (and we are a very global world). You can't make a final answer on what you are given in minutes, hours or even days.

Perhaps aren't your curious why this hasn't exploded like predicted back in March because the social/economic controls actually worked?

Social economic controls were built into the models already. They failed spectacularly. Garbage, could have picked numbers out of a hat and done better.

[TommyGunn]

Based on the health department briefings, there does not yet seem to be very much medical research findings supporting the concept of herd immunity from being infected by the virus. There are certainly numbers of people who have had COVID as confirmed by testing, and then contracted it again.  Herd immunity will work once a substantial percentage of the population gets an effective vaccine.

A report I heard today stated that people in Stockholm Sweden already have @25%  herd immunity.

[cordex]

A report I heard today stated that people in Stockholm Sweden already have @25%  herd immunity.

25% tested positive for antibodies.
Whether previous infections are enough to prevent future infections we don't know yet.

[TommyGunn]

25% tested positive for antibodies.
Whether previous infections are enough to prevent future infections we don't know yet.

Maybe the Swedes know ..... 

[MillCreek]

Maybe the Swedes know ..... 

If they do, they have not published any case reports or papers in the peer-reviewed medical literature.  Which is what is typically done to share valid findings.

[RocketMan]

The data is so new, disease hasn't run it current course and it's been 102 years since the last real global pandemic (and we are a very global world). You can't make a final answer on what you are given in minutes, hours or even days.

Perhaps aren't your curious why this hasn't exploded like predicted back in March because the social/economic controls actually worked?

While not absolutely impossible, it is incredibly difficult to prove a negative.  In this case, the lack of any controls does make it impossible to prove that social distancing and other preventive measures had any real effect.  It's guesswork and supposition at best.

[TommyGunn]

If they do, they have not published any case reports or papers in the peer-reviewed medical literature.  Which is what is typically done to share valid findings.

That doesn't mean it isn't true.   First,  it may be a bit early to expect peer-reviews and medical publication.    Also,  covid 19 isn't the only Corona virus,  and it is genetically very close to others;  it's singular unusual trait seems to be it's much more easily transmited.  There is no reason not to believe there is  some immunity resulting from surviving the Andromeda Strain ...ooooops,  I mean covid 19 (I keep making that mistake; silly me )  just from previous experience with what we know.

I'm NOT trying to say there is such immunity, only that I think we have good reason to believe it is happening.  Time will tell, I guess.

Another thing;  it's typical for viruses to get weaker as time goes on.  Killing off hosts is a very bad strategy from a evolution/survival of the organism  point of view.

[MechAg94]

While not absolutely impossible, it is incredibly difficult to prove a negative.  In this case, the lack of any controls does make it impossible to prove that social distancing and other preventive measures had any real effect.  It's guesswork and supposition at best.

It is also highly likely that social controls could have had a great effect on things while the shutting down small businesses all across the country was not necessary at all. 

[MechAg94]

A question for this group:  How many large businesses are completely shut down right now?  I know some like gun companies are shut down for other reasons.  Most larger companies I can think of are still operating even if at a lower capacity.  I may be missing quite a few so I thought I would ask the question and see what y'all think.

[cordex]

My company isn't very large (~140 employees) and it never stopped operating, although a number of employees are either working from home, have had hours reduced, or have been furloughed.

[MechAg94]

My company isn't very large (~140 employees) and it never stopped operating, although a number of employees are either working from home, have had hours reduced, or have been furloughed.

My company is doing the same.  Our corporate office is 100% work from home.  I work at a plant and we are doing an A team/B team split.  Most of the chemical plants down here have not shut down.  They have deferred work and minimized contractors coming on site, but they are still operating.  The only businesses I come in contact with that were shut down were restaurants and barber shops.  Seems like this whole shut down is disproportionately affecting small businesses.

[charby]

A question for this group:  How many large businesses are completely shut down right now?  I know some like gun companies are shut down for other reasons.  Most larger companies I can think of are still operating even if at a lower capacity.  I may be missing quite a few so I thought I would ask the question and see what y'all think.

I think all the kill plants are up and running here in Iowa again. A couple ethanol plants are shut down or running lower capacity due to demand. One is shutdown for upgrading and expansion, was supposed to over the summer but they started early due to demand reduction. Haven't heard of any manufacturing shutting down or than Winnebago did for a couple weeks in early April. Anything involved with Agronomy inputs is running at full capacity.

[RoadKingLarry]

My company (a  very, very large telecom company) has everyone that can work from home doing so. I'm not one of those. Other than that we are pretty much business as usual. But company business travel is shut down and some install jobs were temporarily delayed to avoid bring contractors in from out of state.
A little ironic on the work from home deal, last year they had a big push to return remote workers to crowded cube farms because it's more productive. Anyone that didn't live within xx miles of a designated work center was laid off.

[zxcvbob]

My company (a  very, very large telecom company) has everyone that can work from home doing so. I'm not one of those. Other than that we are pretty much business as usual. But company business travel is shut down and some install jobs were temporarily delayed to avoid bring contractors in from out of state.
A little ironic on the work from home deal, last year they had a big push to return remote workers to crowded cube farms because it's more productive. Anyone that didn't live within xx miles of a designated work center was laid off.

We went thru that same purge here about a year ago.  What my execs are really *trying* to get to (and one building is converted already) is everybody working in "agile spaces", where everybody is packed in about 2 or 3 feet apart.  I'm not sure they even have an assigned locker for their stuff.  

I refuse to even try that; if forced, I will just find an unused break area or conference room in a distant building to camp out in seclusion.  "Where's Bob?"  "I dunno, he's online and his status says he's onsite"

[Perd Hapley]

My prediction: the tiny house movement is never heard from again.

[Boomhauer]

My company (a  very, very large telecom company) has everyone that can work from home doing so. I'm not one of those. Other than that we are pretty much business as usual. But company business travel is shut down and some install jobs were temporarily delayed to avoid bring contractors in from out of state.
A little ironic on the work from home deal, last year they had a big push to return remote workers to crowded cube farms because it's more productive. Anyone that didn't live within xx miles of a designated work center was laid off.

Is it me or are all the major telecom companies run by morons?

[RoadKingLarry]

Is it me or are all the major telecom companies run by morons?

aholes for sure but some must be less moronic than others. Consider the AT&T/T-Mobile merger attempt. The failed merger bid resulted in AT&T paying T-Mobile $4 BILLION as penalty for the failed merger bid. That $4 Billion payday for T-Mobile funded the growth of their network and infrastructure to the point where they are now set to over shadow AT&T in the wireless world when they complete their merger with Sprint. So...AT&T- Idiots, T-Mobile maybe not so much.
But si certainly the CEO of AT&T didn't even forfeit his annual bonus for that flusterlcuck and remained as CEO for almost another decade it didn't matter much to him anyway.

[Jim147]

When I had the money to invest T kicked its own ass several times

[charby]

Iowa has changed how they present the data. Added more info to the state's Covid-19 website

https://coronavirus.iowa.gov/pages/case-counts?fbclid=IwAR1MNAZGsYrqJBslom2S9JxMfwIIINld7784EQ01pIk7szJoqKEFEUJuDOc