COVID19 predictions

[Jamisjockey]

And I'm sure that MSNBC's headline will be something along the lines of TRUMP: "I hope I can keep the number of people I murder to under 100,000"

Oh the left has already labeled his inner circle as a "Death cult".  *expletive deleted*it's all over reddit.

[Jamisjockey]

Sounds good to me.  Better than a million.

Watching how aggressive Italy has been yet they're at a 10% mortality rate among known cases....
At this point, anything under 100k would probably be a good outcome for the US.  We waited too long to mount any kind of unified response.  Some states are still in complete denial. 
I didn't believe China before, but now I'm super suspect of their data.  I don't buy the 20 million number, that's a farce.  But hearing about the cremations and urn orders from Wuhan calls their numbers into serious doubt.

[Ron]

Panic! Panic! Panic!

Herds rarely make good decisions when they're spooked and panicked.

What little media I consume seems designed to induce panic.

Even stipulating this is a dangerous deadly disease what I'm seeing is not adding up.

The bug is real and it is being used as cover for a lot more than suppressing the spread.

Remember now, PANIC!

 

[Jamisjockey]

Jesus the longer this goes on, the more unhinged your posts become.

[makattak]

Jesus the longer this goes on, the more unhinged your posts become.

That can be said about people on both sides of the concern (THE VIRUS IS GOING TO KILL US ALL! vs. THE GOVERNMENT IS GOING TO STEAL ALL OUR RIGHTS)

I still hold we are over-reacting in some areas of the country. Lockdown is prudent in some areas, but unnecessary in others.

I think part of the reaction (by people, the government, and posters here) is we haven't really had to deal with dangerous, contagious diseases in 3-ish generations, I think. (Does the math.... that puts us back into the 60s. That seems right.)

We've had the illusion (black swans) that diseases aren't really a concern for us any more. Like a lot of modern life, it's an assumption that's been resting on faulty data. I'm among them- I pointed out other issues with the reliance on global trade and didn't see this one coming.

Some day, we're likely to get an actual plague that can't be treated as easily. HOPEFULLY (I'm not sanguine on it, though), this will serve as a wake-up call and we won't try to go back to business as usual.

[Ron]

Jesus the longer this goes on, the more unhinged your posts become.

Everytime I watch the news Im flabbergasted by the insanity.

That and the continued Trump derangement makes me really question all the info we are being fed.

I'm doing everything we're supposed to do like all of us here.

But every day that goes by the sinking suspicion that this is being used as a tool to fundamentally transform this nation becomes stronger.

Look at your own posts Jamis, you've been in panic mode from the beginning.

You must be exhausted from living in hair on fire mode for weeks

[lee n. field]

Oh the left has already labeled his inner circle as a "Death cult".  *expletive deleted*it's all over reddit.

   
"Takes one to know one."

[Jamisjockey]

Everytime I watch the news Im flabbergasted by the insanity.

That and the continued Trump derangement makes me really question all the info we are being fed.

I'm doing everything we're supposed to do like all of us here.

But every day that goes by the sinking suspicion that this is being used as a tool to fundamentally transform this nation becomes stronger.

Look at your posts Jamis, you've been in panic mode from the beginning.

You must be exhausted from living in hair on fire mode for weeks

Perhaps my posts make it seem that way, but I'm not living like my hair is on fire.  I didn't even wear a mask to walmart last week.  I've been pragmatic about this from the start.

Other than filling my pantry and freezer in a timely fashion, and living life in slow motion, not much has changed in my life and household.

I get very little of my news from the MSM, especially now.  I have been watching and keeping an eye out for a lot of front line, unedited videos.

And I've watched this since it got loose in China.

Anyone who isn't concerned about this bug running rampant without any attempt to slow it down is living with their head in the sand.

I've said from the beginning, it's not the total infections that matter. It's the hospitalization rate, which leads to a high mortality rate.

If you you can't understand the absolute unpreparedness of our health care system to handle every possible bed or ventilator being occupied...well... I really don't know what else to say.

And all our "freedoms"...that ship sailed with the Whiskey Rebellion being put down by federal troops.  It's really cute how people think they're free....

[MechAg94]

Perhaps my posts make it seem that way, but I'm not living like my hair is on fire.  I didn't even wear a mask to walmart last week.  I've been pragmatic about this from the start.

Other than filling my pantry and freezer in a timely fashion, and living life in slow motion, not much has changed in my life and household.

I get very little of my news from the MSM, especially now.  I have been watching and keeping an eye out for a lot of front line, unedited videos.

And I've watched this since it got loose in China.

Anyone who isn't concerned about this bug running rampant without any attempt to slow it down is living with their head in the sand.

I've said from the beginning, it's not the total infections that matter. It's the hospitalization rate, which leads to a high mortality rate.

If you you can't understand the absolute unpreparedness of our health care system to handle every possible bed or ventilator being occupied...well... I really don't know what else to say.

And all our "freedoms"...that ship sailed with the Whiskey Rebellion being put down by federal troops.  It's really cute how people think they're free....

Yet saying stuff like that makes it sound like you have given up.  But you tend to fall into a pessimistic view of everything so no big deal. 

I don't mind a variety of views.  Some of that early concern over the virus got me off my butt to go ahead and stock up on some extra stuff in February.  I didn't need to buy much in March when everyone else was doing so. 

[Jamisjockey]

Yet saying stuff like that makes it sound like you have given up.  But you tend to fall into a pessimistic view of everything so no big deal. 

I don't mind a variety of views.  Some of that early concern over the virus got me off my butt to go ahead and stock up on some extra stuff in February.  I didn't need to buy much in March when everyone else was doing so. 

Waco.  Ruby Ridge.  Patriot act with secret fisa courts.  Corporate bailouts.  Gun control.  Cash for clunkers.
*expletive deleted*it, the fact that Bernie is even a viable candidate is enough to make me question the freedoms we have, the ones we supposedly have, and look long and hard at the ones we've lost.
We are one bad election cycle away from a full Australian style gun ban.
Makes it hard to be optimistic about anything that's outside of my immediately daily control.

[MillCreek]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/29/us/seattle-washington-state-coronavirus-transmission-rate.html?action=click&module=Well&pgtype=Homepage&section=US%20News

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/coronavirus-daily-news-updates-march-30-what-to-know-today-about-covid-19-in-the-seattle-area-washington-state-and-the-nation/

Preliminary data out of Seattle indicates that the rate of increase has slowed somewhat.  The Washington state 'stay at home' order was to expire at the end of this week.  It will likely be extended at least another two weeks, to cover the expected peak of cases and hospitalizations in mid-April.

[Ben]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/29/us/seattle-washington-state-coronavirus-transmission-rate.html?action=click&module=Well&pgtype=Homepage&section=US%20News

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/coronavirus-daily-news-updates-march-30-what-to-know-today-about-covid-19-in-the-seattle-area-washington-state-and-the-nation/

Preliminary data out of Seattle indicates that the rate of increase has slowed somewhat.  The Washington state 'stay at home' order was to expire at the end of this week.  It will likely be extended at least another two weeks, to cover the expected peak of cases and hospitalizations in mid-April.

This, as much as the same parameters being applied to all geographic locations, helps confuse people. Not you, Millcreek, rather conflicting info from various sources. We have Seattle saying things are slowing down. At the same time, to my surprise, Dr Fauci this weekend was making official statements about 200,000 US deaths.

While I continue to lean to the "not the end of the world" side, statements like Fauci's certainly make me glad I'm something of a prepper, and at least taking some precautions.

I do wish we could get more information from the MSM and our politicians that wasn't political or TDS, and I also wish that free people would voluntarily take more personal responsibility to do smart things, so that stuff like localized spring break doesn't cascade into forced national orders from our government that people are happy to comply with for "safety".

[Perd Hapley]

And all our "freedoms"...that ship sailed with the Whiskey Rebellion being put down by federal troops.  It's really cute how people think they're free....

I think that's your second Whiskey Rebellion reference in this thread. Does saying "we haven't been free since [semi-obscure historical event]" mean you're libertarian woke or something?

Fair enough, I guess. At least you're not beating the dead horse, of "them hippies really screwed things up in the 60s."

[Ben]

Fair enough, I guess. At least you're not beating the dead horse, of "them hippies really screwed things up in the 60s."

[Former Californian] Them hippies really screwed things up in the 60's. [/Former Californian]

[charby]

Everytime I watch the news Im flabbergasted by the insanity.

That's an easy fix, just watch the evening news on what ever network/local channel you like, don't watch or read anymore. I think a lot of our problem is we have too much information/disinformation available in a moment at any time. People think they are in the know by consuming all of this, yet they add to the disinformation by regurgitating either in person or online. I long for the days when there was "breaking news" followed by the line "film at 11".

[Kingcreek]

My predictions are not based on deep data analysis, main scream news, or ouija board inquiries.
I think as more and more of the almost instant results testing become available, we just might find that most of us were exposed or will soon be exposed, that it's possibly been around longer and is more widespread but less deadly than we thought. Especially if we reach a point when we can test asymptomatic people.
I expect health care workers and first responders will be the first wave of "healthy" or asymptomatic people tested with the "results in minutes" tests when the supply of those tests gets beyond the number needed for the acute symptomatic patients.

[Jamisjockey]

I think that's your second Whiskey Rebellion reference in this thread. Does saying "we haven't been free since [semi-obscure historical event]" mean you're libertarian woke or something?

Fair enough, I guess. At least you're not beating the dead horse, of "them hippies really screwed things up in the 60s."

"semi obscure historical event"
Yes it is.  But it's also when Washington ordered federal troops to put down armed protests over whiskey taxes. 

Speaking of hippies, remember when national guard troops shot a bunch of them at a college in the 60's?  Peppridge farm remembers.

[cordex]

jamis,

Are there degrees of freedom or is it a strict binary?  If there are degrees, is it a good thing or bad thing to move incrementally away from freedom and towards totalitarianism?  If it is a bad thing to move away from freedom and towards totalitarianism then is it possible someone might legitimately have a gripe about seeing that kind of move today, even if there are other freedoms that have already been lost?

[Jamisjockey]

jamis,

Are there degrees of freedom or is it a strict binary?  If there are degrees, is it a good thing or bad thing to move incrementally away from freedom and towards totalitarianism?  If it is a bad thing to move away from freedom and towards totalitarianism then is it possible someone might legitimately have a gripe about seeing that kind of move today, even if there are other freedoms that have already been lost?

I agree it's a bad thing to move towards further depredations of freedoms, or totalitarian rule. 
I think what we're seeing is a lot of powers already stolen by government being used for once. Much of this is stuff that's been sitting in federal and state codes already, just never applied.
And of course, the no crisis gone to waste crowd will sneak anything under the radar they can with this going on.

[cordex]

I agree it's a bad thing to move towards further depredations of freedoms, or totalitarian rule. 
I think what we're seeing is a lot of powers already stolen by government being used for once. Much of this is stuff that's been sitting in federal and state codes already, just never applied.
And of course, the no crisis gone to waste crowd will sneak anything under the radar they can with this going on.

Right on.  That being the case, there really isn't an issue if someone complains about further depredations of freedoms or the actual use (or abuse) of long disused authority, right?

[Perd Hapley]

"semi obscure historical event"
Yes it is.  But it's also when Washington ordered federal troops to put down armed protests over whiskey taxes. 

Speaking of hippies, remember when national guard troops shot a bunch of them at a college in the 60's?  Peppridge farm remembers.

I have no idea what you're trying to say here.

[RocketMan]

Speaking of hippies, remember when national guard troops shot a bunch of them at a college in the 60's?  Peppridge farm remembers.

Kent State University, Kent, Ohio, May 4, 1970.  Stupidity on the part of poorly trained NG troops.

[makattak]

Kent State University, Kent, Ohio, May 4, 1970.  Stupidity on the part of poorly trained NG troops.

ALSO stupidity by protesters attacking poorly trained NG troops.

[WLJ]

ALSO stupidity by protesters attacking poorly trained NG troops.

Gee, wonder why the media never mentions that or what the protesters had been up to for the past two days.

[zxcvbob]

Kent State University, Kent, Ohio, May 4, 1970.  Stupidity on the part of poorly trained NG troops.

I remember it too (not well) and knew the reference, but I still don't know what point Jamis was making.