Where do you place the odds of a 50 state sweep by Trump?

[Perd Hapley]

Leftist District Attorneys Announce Across The Country They WILL NOT Charge Rioters And Far Left
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Q6FcuVuNE0


Here is the article he references.  
https://nypost.com/2020/09/05/growing-numbers-of-us-attorneys-general-are-out-to-undermine-the-law/
Growing numbers of district attorneys are out to undermine the law

Soros' prosecutors.

[just Warren]

This site gives Trump a 91% chance of winning: http://primarymodel.com/

Their model has correctly predicted 25 of the last 27 presidential elections. Not that it's been in use that long but rather that by applying it to past elections it shows the strength of their model.

It does not predict a sweep for Trump, it shows Biden winning some states and some EVs but that was before the riots and the huge shift of minority and suburban voters to Trump.

They won't update their model based on recent events but for me it's a place to start.

I think we can take that 91% and increase it to darn near 100% because of recent events.

In some polls Trump has pulled even in Wisconsin and Minnesota two states that historically are bluer than California.

Now California seems out of reach but there's still two months to go and that's two months of of gaffes from Biden as well as relentless attacks on him and Harris for their stance on the riots.

[DittoHead]

Their model has correctly predicted 25 of the last 27 presidential elections. Not that it's been in use that long but rather that by applying it to past elections it shows the strength of their model.

That doesn't really mean much.

It’s not a prediction if you already know what happened. These modelers have a lot of choices to work with — literally millions of plausible combinations of economic variables, alongside other factors like polls, variables to indicate wartime and peacetime, incumbency, and so forth. It’s easy to fit these past data well just by testing out one specification after another until you come across a lucky one, like the robber who depresses every buzzer in a 15-story apartment complex until someone lets him in. It’s much harder actually to make good predictions.

[zxcvbob]

Now California seems out of reach but there's still two months to go and that's two months of of gaffes from Biden as well as relentless attacks on him and Harris for their stance on the riots.

California, New York, and Illinois will not go for Trump even if that's who the people vote for.  New York City, Chicago, Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Sacramento will manufacture millions of fake Democrat votes if they have to.  They won't even be embarrassed or admit fraud if voter turnout is well over 100% of registered voters.

[Perd Hapley]

I tried to watch one of this guy's videos a while back.  Couldn't make it through without wanting to tear my already nonexistent hair out.
Good message, very poor delivery.

I just realized that if you slow that guy down to 3/4 speed on YouTube, he sounds hilariously stoned. 

[Perd Hapley]

https://news.unclesamsmisguidedchildren.com/amish-enthusiasm-the-cow-horse-wagon-carriage-parade-for-trump/

If I had to guess, I would have thought Amish didn't vote. Maybe it's a good thing I was wrong.

[Ron]

https://news.unclesamsmisguidedchildren.com/amish-enthusiasm-the-cow-horse-wagon-carriage-parade-for-trump/

If I had to guess, I would have thought Amish didn't vote. Maybe it's a good thing I was wrong.

There is a fair amount of diversity among the Amish as far as different levels of engagement with the world system. 

They don't have strong central hierarchies dictating down to the local level, much is decided among the local elders.



 

[Perd Hapley]

https://youtu.be/957h1jVcnms

That is a lot of cringe. Watch for the part where Stephen Curry talks about who he's voting for. 

[DittoHead]

This poll has Trump and Biden tied in Iowa at 47% each, but the crazy thing is that gender gap.

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2020/09/22/iowa-poll-donald-trump-joe-biden-tied-iowa-presidential-race-2020/5839311002/
Trump leads by 21 percentage points with men, 57% to 36% over Biden. And Biden leads by 20 percentage points with women, 57% to 37% over Trump.

If that's accurate it's ~2x what it was in 2016.

[Ron]

Democrats are targeting women and minorities almost exclusively.

I actually had a lady friend tell me how she felt a Handmaids Tale reminded her of America under Trump.

How do you even begin to unpack that?

Everyone has to go through sensitivity training, bad speak bad think isn't allowed in public places, BLM, LGBT etc and pretty every minority group has a special protected status even if they engage in disruption and violence. We live in a feminized culture where the guys are asking swmbo how we should act and what they want us to do next.

A Filipino friend of mine was marveling at the beat down white men are taking in the media/news/HR depts. He see's it and said to me "sucks to be you". This was pretty much an unsolicited comment on his part, we were talking about a work related outreach they've started where we work. As an aside, he is pretty conservative and I wouldn't be surprised if Trump pulls in 25% of the Filipino vote if my Filipino friends/acquaintances are representative of the whole.



  

[Ben]

A Filipino friend of mine was marveling at the beat down white men are taking in the media/news/HR depts. He see's it and said to me "sucks to be you". This was pretty much an unsolicited comment on his part, we were talking about a work related outreach they've started where we work. As an aside, he is pretty conservative and I wouldn't be surprised if Trump pulls in 25% of the Filipino vote if my Filipino friends/acquaintances are representative of the whole.

Filipinos seem to be reliably conservative. Kinda a history thing I guess. :)

Also, because of that, they're not a minority. Wrongthink.

[freakazoid]

Also, because of that, they're not a minority. Wrongthink.

It's also like that with the Japanese. If you push the conversation correctly when debating with a leftist you can often times get them to admit that they hate them.

[Pb]

It's also like that with the Japanese. If you push the conversation correctly when debating with a leftist you can often times get them to admit that they hate them.

Leftists hate the Japanese?  Why?   

[BlueStarLizzard]

I seriously doubt that any woman who claims living under Trumps presidency has been like The Handmaiden's Tale, has never actually read The Handmaiden's Tale.

Unless they are are talking about some bizarro world leftist version that I've never read...

[Ron]

I seriously doubt that any woman who claims living under Trumps presidency has been like The Handmaiden's Tale, has never actually read The Handmaiden's Tale.

Unless they are are talking about some bizarro world leftist version that I've never read...

I think she was watching a series on her computer IIRC.

[Perd Hapley]

I seriously doubt that any woman who claims living under Trumps presidency has been like The Handmaiden's Tale, has never actually read The Handmaiden's Tale.

Unless they are are talking about some bizarro world leftist version that I've never read...

I think we can lay odds they're talking about the TV series. Not sure how it adheres to the novel.

Anyway, this is Trump's America, so shouldn't you be ironing your hubby's shirts or something? 

[Perd Hapley]

Casual theorizing: what if presidential elections today are so heavily weighted to personality that Trump wins on that alone? When Joe manages to have a personality these days, it's just frustration and anger and looking forlorn and tired. Last time, Trump ran against thoroughly unlikable Clinton. Before Trump, we had Obama vs Romney & McCain, Bush vs Kerry & Gore, Clinton vs Dole & Bush. I'm barely old enough to remember the elections before that, and of course personality has always been a factor. Is it possible, with video footage of the candidates so ever-present, that personality trumps anything else? Or has it always been true?

[RoadKingLarry]

I've seen analysis of the Kennedy/Nixon debates where people that listened to it on the radio claimed Nixon was the clear winner but people that watched it on TV said Kennedy was the shining star.

[TommyGunn]

I've seen analysis of the Kennedy/Nixon debates where people that listened to it on the radio claimed Nixon was the clear winner but people that watched it on TV said Kennedy was the shining star.

Nixon was sick and refused tv makeup.  He looked horrible on tv,  while Kennedy was young and comparatively much more handsome.  Nixon looked like a bulldog even when healthy,  and he might have been almost as smart as a dog. 
Unfortunatly,  while radio forces one to pay attention to what's said and process that,  tv presents pretty images and many people respond to that without really processing the info presented.

[Perd Hapley]

I know people and property are being attacked. I get that. Not everyone can take that chance.

I'm not immune from timidity, either, but it's pretty clear we are letting ourselves be intimidated into silence. We're basically admitting that on every corner of the internet. The sad thing is, we seem to be OK with it.


FWIW, I'm going to put my sticker where my mouth is. Just ordered this:
https://shop.donaldjtrump.com/products/veterans-for-trump-bumper-sticker-set-of-2

Just following up:

[Ben]

Just following up:

Not nearly big enough and you didn't include your license plate in the image so that we can dox you. 

Good on you for putting your money where your mouth is though. :)

[Andiron]

Leftists hate the Japanese?  Why?  

Functional enthostate that doesn't apologize for it's culture.  Or at least that's my impression from stuff I've read.  Never been.  Narrowly avoided Oki by EAS.

The Japs probably laugh their asses off at our "Diversity is our strength"  BS.

[just Warren]

Here's a site where you can play around with sliders for race, age, and education to see what needs to change for a candidate to win.

https://www.nbcnews.com/specials/swing-the-election/

Whoever said that, because of DC, Trump could not sweep is likely right as black votes would have to break like 80% in his favor for that to happen and that ain't happening.

But even a little increase in black support gets him the win. As does a slightly larger increase in the Latino vote. But get a little increase in both and Trump squeaks by.

Just getting 2% more from non-college educated whites swings it heavily in Trump's favor. Just getting 5-6% more turnout from that group give Trump a narrow win. Do both and it's a runway for Trump.

It's not very in-depth as there's no rural vs urban slider and blacks and Latinos are not undifferentiated masses that think the same way but it's fun to play with the numbers. There's no issues listed so you cannot sort that way, which would be interesting.

[Ron]

An article that I believe is pretty darn accurate as to why they hate Trump so very very much.

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/there-are-trillions-stake-how-washington-really-works-why-its-denizens-despise-trump

The “America First” policies represented by candidate Donald Trump were not within the legislative constructs coming from the K-Street authors of the legislation. There were no MAGA lobbyists waiting on Trump ideology to advance legislation based on America First objectives....

...Think about the larger ramifications within that truism. That is also why there was/is so much opposition.

No legislation provided by outside interests means no work for lobbyists who sell it. No work means no money. No money means no expense accounts. No expenses means politicians paying for their own indulgences etc.

Politicians were not happy without their indulgences, but the issue was actually bigger. No K-Street expenditures also means no personal benefit; and no opportunity to advance financial benefit from the insider trading system. Republicans and democrats hate the presidency of Donald Trump because it is hurting them financially.

President Trump is not figuratively hurting the financial livelihoods of DC politicians; he’s literally doing it. President Trump is not an esoteric problem for them; his impact is very real, very direct, and hits almost every politician in the most painful place imaginable, the bank account.

In the pre-Trump process there were millions upon millions, even billions that could be made by DC politicians and their families. Thousands of very indulgent and exclusive livelihoods attached to the DC business model. At the center of this operation is the lobbying and legislative purchase network. The Big Club.

[DittoHead]

Kevin Williamson weighs in on the possibility of a Trump landslide.

Strange things happen, and “statistically unlikely” is not a synonym for “impossible.” But the story of Donald Trump’s underground landslide is not serious analysis — it is wishful thinking for fun and profit.

One of the deathless myths of the 2016 election is that the polls were wildly off. They weren’t, neither at the national level nor at the state level, though the national polls were a little closer to the final tally than the state polls were, as historically has been the case. In fact, the national polls in 2016 were slightly more accurate than they were in 2012. The difference is that in 2012 the polls understated the vote for the candidate who was expected to win and did, while in 2016 they understated, by a slightly smaller margin, the performance of the candidate who was expected to lose but didn’t. But from a polling point of view, a five-point error is a five-point error; the fact that one error produces the right “call” is, as a technical polling matter, not especially important.
...
Pouring scorn on the polls and on unwelcome news reports, predicting a Trump landslide with very little hard evidence to back up that wishful thinking, and, above all, reassuring conservatives that our ideas are more popular than they actually are, that the vast majority of Americans are on our side even if they don’t seem to know it, is a good way to build audience share and a social-media following. And if — as is likely though not certain — this is revealed on Election Day as a fraud and a fantasy, then you can always complain that the election was rigged and that the Deep State has done you wrong.