Author Topic: SpaceX News  (Read 123157 times)

WLJ

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Re: SpaceX News
« Reply #2900 on: November 28, 2023, 11:30:16 AM »
I rather doubt that.

Musk has aimed for an aspirational cost of $500k per engine, but those first 78 certainly did not all reach that cost threshold.  Even then, the market value of the Raptor as an engine is far higher than its cost... and the market value of an RS-25 is far higher than its cost.

You cannot compare cost of an object to the market price (however convoluted by government procurement) of another.

Last I heard Rs where around 1 mil.
Current NASA figures for new production tax payer funded RS-25s is around $100 mil a pop with hopes to get it down to 70 mil each. Reportedly the original RS-25s used on the shuttle cost ~40 mil each. (probably 1980s dollars.)
SLS has 4 RS-25s plus the boosters. Each SLS launch currently costs $2-3 bil each.
The RS-25s as used on SLS are one use only while Raptors are designed to be reusable. NASA has said SLS is unsustainable. Gee, I wonder why.

« Last Edit: November 28, 2023, 12:48:39 PM by WLJ »
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WLJ

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Re: SpaceX News
« Reply #2901 on: November 28, 2023, 02:47:51 PM »
ULA - First BE-4 engined launch scheduled for Dec 23
BO - First BE-4 engined launch scheduled for Aug 24

ULA you go first and let us know if our engines work.
Sign BO
« Last Edit: November 28, 2023, 03:19:36 PM by WLJ »
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WLJ

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Re: SpaceX News
« Reply #2902 on: November 30, 2023, 02:49:58 PM »
G WAY TO MARS
Hmmm, wonder what that means?  :P

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dogmush

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Re: SpaceX News
« Reply #2903 on: November 30, 2023, 08:44:15 PM »
ULA - First BE-4 engined launch scheduled for Dec 23
BO - First BE-4 engined launch scheduled for Aug 24

ULA you go first and let us know if our engines work.
Sign BO

How do you think the owners of the Peregrine Moon Lander that's on that rocket are feeling?

WLJ

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Re: SpaceX News
« Reply #2904 on: November 30, 2023, 08:50:29 PM »
How do you think the owners of the Peregrine Moon Lander that's on that rocket are feeling?

Hoping all the Is are dotted and the Ts crossed on the insurance forms.
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WLJ

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Re: SpaceX News
« Reply #2905 on: November 30, 2023, 08:54:01 PM »
Odds of a BE-4 caused RUD? Maybe 50-50 in my mind at this point without knowing more what went on in testing.
Don't get me wrong I wish both BO and ULA the best on the this.
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WLJ

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Re: SpaceX News
« Reply #2906 on: November 30, 2023, 08:58:32 PM »
"Sometimes I think the surest sign that intelligent life exists elsewhere in the universe is that none of it has tried to contact us".
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WLJ

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Re: SpaceX News
« Reply #2907 on: November 30, 2023, 09:07:42 PM »
I'm hoping ULA betting the farm on BO engines isn't going to bite them in the arse, that's my biggest fear in this.
I want the the BE-4 to work for ULA's sake at least but I would have liked to have seen at least 1 or 2 test flights before putting a $$$$$ payload on top but that's me.
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AZRedhawk44

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Re: SpaceX News
« Reply #2908 on: December 01, 2023, 01:33:56 AM »
I'm hoping ULA betting the farm on BO engines isn't going to bite them in the arse, that's my biggest fear in this.
I want the the BE-4 to work for ULA's sake at least but I would have liked to have seen at least 1 or 2 test flights before putting a $$$$$ payload on top but that's me.

BO's credibility rides on that same first Vulcan launch.

I'd love to be a fly on the wall for the negotiations with BO representatives.  Dollars to donuts, Boeing and LockMart have BO at a fixed, non-negotiable price that is not open to renegotiation based on performance of debut Vulcan launches.

It's really a shame, but ULA was buried in the field out back when the first F9 landed, and they didn't pursue an equivalent vehicle.  Vulcan isn't that vehicle.  SMART is a wish list, not an action item.  They have to stage lower to have a reasonable chance of booster re-use, and that means they need to redesign their 2nd stage, which is currently their only competitive advantage.  Anything Vulcan can do, F9/FH can also do and at lower cost.  And at this point with over 200 consecutive successful LANDINGS in a row, not just launches and insertions, F9/FH is the safe and proven bet while Vulcan is very much the wild card, as well as more expensive.  All that keeps them afloat is DOD desire for launch vendor redundancy, which RocketLab is very hungry to take away from ULA in the next year or so.  If Neutron can fly for less than Vulcan, it's over for ULA.

My money is on a mission failure for the first Vulcan, though.  Jeff's engines seem to be very temperamental, and one particular regime they haven't gotten any flight data on is riding in tandem with several SRB's.  There will be a pair of GEM 63XL SRB's strapped alongside Jeff's engines, shaking the *expletive deleted*it out of the whole stack.  Those SRB's are each putting out about 450k pounds of thrust (900k total) where the two BE-4's are each putting out about 550k pounds of thrust (1.1 million total).  They're big SRB's.
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WLJ

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Re: SpaceX News
« Reply #2909 on: December 01, 2023, 11:53:25 AM »
Speaking of which

Quote
Tory Bruno
@torybruno
Our brand new large solid rocket motor storage facility at Camp Blanding FL is starting to fill up. It’ll be SRMs stacked like cord wood soon!
https://twitter.com/torybruno/status/1730610105245470749
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WLJ

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Re: SpaceX News
« Reply #2910 on: December 01, 2023, 01:52:19 PM »
And speaking of engines going boom

Something exploded powerfully at the Chinese cosmodrome
https://vpk.name/en/801043_something-exploded-powerfully-at-the-chinese-cosmodrome.html

Edit: had the wrong link for the photos

« Last Edit: December 01, 2023, 03:36:19 PM by WLJ »
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AZRedhawk44

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Re: SpaceX News
« Reply #2911 on: December 01, 2023, 03:25:42 PM »
https://www.aboutamazon.com/news/innovation-at-amazon/amazon-project-kuiper-spacex-launch

Amazon orders 3 Falcon 9 launches to support Project Kuiper.

Watch for more orders to come for SpaceX, and more schedule slip for Vulcan and New Glenn.
"But whether the Constitution really be one thing, or another, this much is certain - that it has either authorized such a government as we have had, or has been powerless to prevent it. In either case, it is unfit to exist."
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WLJ

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Re: SpaceX News
« Reply #2912 on: December 01, 2023, 03:43:36 PM »
https://www.aboutamazon.com/news/innovation-at-amazon/amazon-project-kuiper-spacex-launch

Amazon orders 3 Falcon 9 launches to support Project Kuiper.

Watch for more orders to come for SpaceX, and more schedule slip for Vulcan and New Glenn.

The Amazon article doesn't mention one of the possible reasons why
A lawsuit had been filed over the launch contract

I posted this back in Sept

Quote
Speaking of BO

Quote
    A pension fund has filed suit against the board of directors of Amazon, claiming they “acted in bad faith” in approving launch contracts for the Project Kuiper broadband constellation that awarded billions of dollars to Blue Origin, the company founded by Amazon’s Jeff Bezos.

    The suit, a public version of which was filed with Delaware’s Court of Chancery Aug. 28, alleges that Amazon’s board and one of its committees spent “barely an hour” reviewing contracts with Blue Origin and United Launch Alliance, whose Vulcan Centaur rocket uses engines from Blue Origin, before approving them in March 2022. Delaware Business Court Insider first reported the lawsuit.

    The suit is filed by the Cleveland Bakers and Teamsters Pension Fund, an Amazon shareholder, and sheds new light on how Amazon selected Blue Origin and ULA, along with Arianespace, for contracts announced in April 2022 to launch the 3,236-satellite constellation. It also suggests that personal animus between Bezos and Elon Musk, founder of SpaceX, prevented Amazon from considering SpaceX for those contracts.
https://spacenews.com/lawsuit-claims-amazons-board-erred-in-awarding-kuiper-launch-contracts-to-blue-origin-and-others/

While it really wasn't any surprise they selected BO I guess someone else may have noticed BO doesn't even have a working launch vehicle. Open question whether or not Elon would have even wanted the contract.

Meanwhile  [popcorn]



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MechAg94

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Re: SpaceX News
« Reply #2913 on: December 01, 2023, 03:48:54 PM »
If there is one thing SpaceX has done right, they have gotten a lot of experience with rocket engine design and operation with all their smaller rocket operations.  Even if you think you have a better design, it is hard to beat that.  I guess it is obvious everyone else is catching up (falling further behind at this point as they aren't yet moving).
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WLJ

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Re: SpaceX News
« Reply #2914 on: December 02, 2023, 09:22:08 AM »
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RoadKingLarry

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Re: SpaceX News
« Reply #2915 on: December 02, 2023, 12:03:33 PM »
And speaking of engines going boom

Something exploded powerfully at the Chinese cosmodrome
https://vpk.name/en/801043_something-exploded-powerfully-at-the-chinese-cosmodrome.html

Edit: had the wrong link for the photos



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WLJ

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Re: SpaceX News
« Reply #2916 on: December 03, 2023, 09:12:40 AM »
quote]Chris Bergin - NSF
@NASASpaceflight
And touchdown on A Shortfall of Gravitas.

177th consecutive landing for SpaceX's 91st launch of the year![/quote]
https://twitter.com/NASASpaceflight/status/1731163854820778168

100 here we come
Here's a list of upcoming launches https://nextspaceflight.com/launches/agency/upcoming/1/
Note some say NET (No Earlier Than) so they may or may not launch by the end of the year in fact many are highly doubtful
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WLJ

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Re: SpaceX News
« Reply #2917 on: December 03, 2023, 09:18:42 AM »
Looking at the above chart how long before the admin and certain congress critters start screaming monopoly particularly if BE-4s go boom?
Many in the current administration have it out for Elon in case you hadn't noticed  :P

But I wonder how much of that 381,278 is Starlinks?
« Last Edit: December 03, 2023, 10:08:46 AM by WLJ »
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dogmush

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Re: SpaceX News
« Reply #2918 on: December 03, 2023, 09:49:29 AM »
Looking at the above chart how long before the admin and certain congress critters start screaming monopoly particularly if BE-4s go boom?
Many in the currently administration have it out for Elon. In case you hadn't noticed  :P

But I wonder how much of that 381,278 is Starlinks?

I've already seen articles in MSM and Space media calling SpaceX a monoploy.  The groundwork has been laid.  The Catch22 for the gov and bankers is that they need SpaceX to launch their stuff right now.  Once there are actual other choices and the "issue" is just that SpaceX is an order of magnitude cheaper, I expect we'll see more pushes for price controls or subsidizing of SpaceX competitors to ensure "fairness".

WLJ

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Re: SpaceX News
« Reply #2919 on: December 03, 2023, 11:48:23 AM »
I've already seen articles in MSM and Space media calling SpaceX a monoploy.  The groundwork has been laid.  The Catch22 for the gov and bankers is that they need SpaceX to launch their stuff right now.  Once there are actual other choices and the "issue" is just that SpaceX is an order of magnitude cheaper, I expect we'll see more pushes for price controls or subsidizing of SpaceX competitors to ensure "fairness".

I know I posted a link to an article along those lines a few pages back.

Edit: here it is

Quote
Some small companies are accusing SX of pricing below cost but I would like real see data on that. Considering SX is reusing boosters and engines thus greatly lowering costs while everyone else is not there may be some sour grapes in their accusations.
Plus BO has yet to launch a single gram to orbit and ULA is basically almost at a standstill now relying on BO to deliver working engines.
Oh and some think the government should "increased government investment might be needed to bolster competition in the launch market" Yeah

The Accidental Monopoly
How SpaceX became (just about) the only game in town
https://spacenews.com/the-accidental-monopoly/
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AZRedhawk44

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Re: SpaceX News
« Reply #2920 on: December 04, 2023, 10:16:13 AM »
I'm waiting for the evidence that the SpaceX monopoly is harmful.  With launch prices falling and SpaceX demonstrating that they are pushing more mass to orbit alone than the global capacity of every nation any time in human history, there's no argument to be made that they are exclusionary.  I suspect that if ULA and BO caved this year and declared bankruptcy, SpaceX would be at the auction proceedings to buy their launch pads and would have them converted to send more F9's within 6 months of acquisition, effectively doubling their already astounding upmass capability.
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WLJ

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Re: SpaceX News
« Reply #2921 on: December 04, 2023, 10:21:35 AM »
I'm waiting for the evidence that the SpaceX monopoly is harmful. 

I'm with you on that but do you think this administration needs evidence when they have feeeeelings as in Elon Musk bad!?
« Last Edit: December 04, 2023, 10:36:38 AM by WLJ »
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dogmush

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Re: SpaceX News
« Reply #2922 on: December 04, 2023, 01:36:25 PM »
I'm waiting for the evidence that the SpaceX monopoly is harmful.  With launch prices falling and SpaceX demonstrating that they are pushing more mass to orbit alone than the global capacity of every nation any time in human history, there's no argument to be made that they are exclusionary.  I suspect that if ULA and BO caved this year and declared bankruptcy, SpaceX would be at the auction proceedings to buy their launch pads and would have them converted to send more F9's within 6 months of acquisition, effectively doubling their already astounding upmass capability.

As much as I like watching Elon tell Disney to Go *expletive deleted*ck Themselves, I watch too much dystopian sci-fi to be comfortable with allowing one, privately owned company be the only way Humans have to reach the bases we're planning on the Moon and Mars.  Even if Elon turns out to be Mostly Harmless, whomever takes over SpaceX next is unlikly to be.  I would like to see checks and balences on something as important as putting humans on other planets.  Not enough to force a breakup of SpaceX, but enough to be concerned no one else can seem to land a rocket.

cordex

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Re: SpaceX News
« Reply #2923 on: December 04, 2023, 02:07:00 PM »
SpaceX has plenty of smart people, move very quickly, and have developed some cool stuff, but I'm not convinced that their tech is so far beyond the capability of the other big players.  Granted, those other big players would have to iterate faster and go through their own development cycle, but they could get there I'm sure.

I'm guessing the bigger problem is that there is significant financial incentive for the other big players to continue to build and burn very lucrative single-use rockets.

dogmush

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Re: SpaceX News
« Reply #2924 on: December 04, 2023, 02:23:43 PM »
SpaceX has plenty of smart people, move very quickly, and have developed some cool stuff, but I'm not convinced that their tech is so far beyond the capability of the other big players.  Granted, those other big players would have to iterate faster and go through their own development cycle, but they could get there I'm sure.

I'm guessing the bigger problem is that there is significant financial incentive for the other big players to continue to build and burn very lucrative single-use rockets.

Maybe, but there aren't THAT many big .gov contracts laying around to do nothing with.

I think the real problem is no one is willing to take several years and blow up a couple billion dollars of hardware with no income to get over that initial couple iterations and have a reusable rocket.  I guess that's what Blue Origin has been supposedly doing for a while, but I think we all expect a fair amount of crashed New Glenn's before they have a reliable, reusable rocket.  Maybe they've got all the kinks worked out in simulations and the thing will work right, who knows.

Talking about financial incentive: I googled it and the internes says SpaceX is currently charging $1520/kg to LEO.  Based on that graph up there they could have taken in half a billion or so in Q3.