Let's Go Brandon!

[K Frame]

We are a LONG way from a collapse of the supply chain.

We were one hell of a lot closer to a collapse of the supply chain April-July 2020 and even then it didn't collapse -- it just groaned. To say the situation today is anything like those special months at the height of the pandemic is not based in reality.

More importantly, the commodities that were off the shelves -- toilet paper, dairy products, meat, hand sanitizer, etc.? Supply of those items is, for the most part, back to something near normal.

And the primary cause for that wasn't supply chain issues, it was caused by people being retarded panic monkeys and buying 2,000 rolls of toilet paper, 250 pounds of ground beef (and not having a freezer to store it in).... in other words, being hoarding aholes.

We're nowhere near the kind of supply chain collapse suffered by Venezuela or many of the other nations that have experienced hyperinflation. In those instances the supply wasn't sitting on a ship waiting to be unloaded or rotting in a field, it was non-existent.

Those nations suffered a supply chain collapse because the production end of the supply chain failed.

I'll say that again... the PRODUCTION END of the supply chain failed.

In both nations farmers quit selling their produce because government policies made money worthless. Manufacturers couldn't get raw materials because, again, the money was worthless.

Those ships sitting in LA Harbor full of TVs and computers and other goods waiting to be unloaded?

That means that the production end of the supply chain has not collapsed.

The record and near record harvest figures for many US agricultural products in 2020 and 2021?

That means that the production end of the supply chain has not collapsed.

[K Frame]

"The Federal Reserve is not printing money in absolute record amounts right now?  Congress is not passing multi-trillion dollar legislation packages as we speak with no way to pay for them aside from the FR just printing more money?"

Sure it is.

But here's an exercise for you.

Why don't you do a comparative analysis between the actions of the Venezuelan government vs the actions of the United States government in regards to government spending, the respective GDPs, and the increase in the monetary supply.

That's where you see just what constitutes the groundwork for Venezuela's hyperinflation and how their actions were so far beyond what US policy is that there is no realistic basis for comparison.

And in doing so hopefully that will prevent you from becoming a retarded panic monkey.

[zxcvbob]

Had a guy call trying to find a sensor for a 2009 Nissan... Forklift...

How many did you have in stock?  Three? :D

[RocketMan]

Panic monkey?  No.  Very concerned about what I am seeing systemically in the supply chain?  Yes.  Spent a lot of years working near the tail end of the chain and gained what I believe to be a fair amount of insight into its strengths and weaknesses.
And the fact that it relies very much on itself for its proper functioning is something most folks don't consider.  Many types of failures can provide a sort of negative feedback that can cascade through the system, seriously disrupting its function.
If the supply chain doesn't work, it does not matter a whit whether producers are still producing.  The economy still tanks hard.

Very concerned about the fiscal shenanigans of our feral government?  Yes.  Many trillions of dollars the government does not have that they insist on spending, 20x growth in money supply in the last few years, deliberate destruction of the nation's energy independence, reestablishment of high tax rates, etc. ad infinitum, is all cause for much concern.  These behaviors by the feds is behind much of the inflation we are seeing right now.
Panic monkey?  Not so much.

[MechAg94]

We are a LONG way from a collapse of the supply chain.

We were one hell of a lot closer to a collapse of the supply chain April-July 2020 and even then it didn't collapse -- it just groaned. To say the situation today is anything like those special months at the height of the pandemic is not based in reality.

More importantly, the commodities that were off the shelves -- toilet paper, dairy products, meat, hand sanitizer, etc.? Supply of those items is, for the most part, back to something near normal.

And the primary cause for that wasn't supply chain issues, it was caused by people being retarded panic monkeys and buying 2,000 rolls of toilet paper, 250 pounds of ground beef (and not having a freezer to store it in).... in other words, being hoarding aholes.

We're nowhere near the kind of supply chain collapse suffered by Venezuela or many of the other nations that have experienced hyperinflation. In those instances the supply wasn't sitting on a ship waiting to be unloaded or rotting in a field, it was non-existent.

Those nations suffered a supply chain collapse because the production end of the supply chain failed.

I'll say that again... the PRODUCTION END of the supply chain failed.

In both nations farmers quit selling their produce because government policies made money worthless. Manufacturers couldn't get raw materials because, again, the money was worthless.

Those ships sitting in LA Harbor full of TVs and computers and other goods waiting to be unloaded?

That means that the production end of the supply chain has not collapsed.

The record and near record harvest figures for many US agricultural products in 2020 and 2021?

That means that the production end of the supply chain has not collapsed.

There was also the problem of those govts seizing certain businesses/factories and gifting them to cronies who then looted them and sold off the spare parts so they soon shut down. 

[RocketMan]

In hindsight, perhaps I shouldn't have said Venezuela-style hyperinflation.  Poor choice of words.  But that doesn't negate my concern whether we're nearing some kind of tipping point where we slip into a hyperinflationary spiral.

[K Frame]

"And the fact that it relies very much on itself for its proper functioning is something most folks don't consider.  Many types of failures can provide a sort of negative feedback that can cascade through the system, seriously disrupting its function."

Yes, they certainly can. And yet we've seen, in stark detail, supply chain's resilience in the face of the worst of the pandemic from April to August 2020. The supply chain didn't collapse. If was assaulted on virtually all fronts, and it didn't collapse.

The fact that a bunch of hard goods, a significant portion of which are legitimately luxury goods, are sitting in ships waiting to be unloaded, is no good reason for anyone to start messing their drawers.

Fortunately, if they DO mess their drawers, toilet paper is once again in good supply. 





"There was also the problem of those govts seizing certain businesses/factories and gifting them to cronies who then looted them and sold off the spare parts so they soon shut down."

Yes, it's all part of the rich tapestry of the Joys of Socialism.

[HankB]

We are a LONG way from a collapse of the supply chain.

We were one hell of a lot closer to a collapse of the supply chain April-July 2020 and even then it didn't collapse -- it just groaned. To say the situation today is anything like those special months at the height of the pandemic is not based in reality.

More importantly, the commodities that were off the shelves -- toilet paper, dairy products, meat, hand sanitizer, etc.? Supply of those items is, for the most part, back to something near normal.
 . . .

With many types of ammo that used to be readily available simply absent from normal retail channels, the supply chain for ammunition may not be broken - but it's definitely bent.  And it has been for quite some time. The limited quantities of common caliber ammunition available are priced at roughly double what prices were 18-24 months ago. (Triple in some instances.) And it's not just demand cleaning retailer's shelves as soon as they're stocked as even the biggest retailers (e.g., Cabela's, Bass Pro Shops, Academy, etc.) are not getting more than a small trickle at best of inventory in to restock their shelves with.

The ammo absence seems to be easing a little bit of late - but only a little. (Still high prices.)

And as for the supply chain not being broken for some things like primers - 

[dogmush]

I have not once in the past 24 months been unable to by the ammo I was looking for.  Expensive?  Yes, but demand has skyrocketed, and supply was artificially cut by excluding Russia.

But you can get ammo if you want it.

[Unisaw]

Auto dealers have backed away from Costco's pre-negotiated price service.  For the few cars they have in stock, they have no interest in selling them at a negotiated, group price.

[K Frame]

With many types of ammo that used to be readily available simply absent from normal retail channels, the supply chain for ammunition may not be broken - but it's definitely bent.  And it has been for quite some time. The limited quantities of common caliber ammunition available are priced at roughly double what prices were 18-24 months ago. (Triple in some instances.) And it's not just demand cleaning retailer's shelves as soon as they're stocked as even the biggest retailers (e.g., Cabela's, Bass Pro Shops, Academy, etc.) are not getting more than a small trickle at best of inventory in to restock their shelves with.

The ammo absence seems to be easing a little bit of late - but only a little. (Still high prices.)

And as for the supply chain not being broken for some things like primers - 

OMG! Ammo you want isn't available?

END TIMES! WE GONNA DIE!

Really? That's going to be the basis for assessing the totality of the health of the supply chain -- you can't get .45 ACP?

Sigh.

[K Frame]

I have not once in the past 24 months been unable to by the ammo I was looking for.  Expensive?  Yes, but demand has skyrocketed, and supply was artificially cut by excluding Russia.

But you can get ammo if you want it.

Yep. 4 months ago I bought 100 rounds of Federal 9 mm. More expensive than I wanted it to be, but it was available.

Is anyone forgetting that the same ammo and component shortages happened during Obama's years in office?

This isn't any freaking different. Then, as now, the primary force behind it was freaking panic buying. The rumors that were flying around back then were just... precious.

OBAMMA'S BANNED AMMUNITION MANUFACTURE WITH AN EXECUTIVE ORDER! I HEARD IT FROM MY UNCLE'S BROTHER'S SISTER'S DOG'S COUSIN'S CAT!  HE KNOWS, MAN, HE KNOWS!

And a lot worse.

[WLJ]

Yep. 4 months ago I bought 100 rounds of Federal 9 mm. More expensive than I wanted it to be, but it was available.

Is anyone forgetting that the same ammo and component shortages happened during Obama's years in office?

This isn't any freaking different. Then, as now, the primary force behind it was freaking panic buying. The rumors that were flying around back then were just... precious.

OBAMMA'S BANNED AMMUNITION MANUFACTURE WITH AN EXECUTIVE ORDER! I HEARD IT FROM MY UNCLE'S BROTHER'S SISTER'S DOG'S COUSIN'S CAT!  HE KNOWS, MAN, HE KNOWS!

And a lot worse.

Remember going to gun shows where someone on the hall's loud speakers kept repeating over and over " This could be your last chance to a gun"

[K Frame]

Remember going to gun shows where someone on the hall's loud speakers kept repeating over and over " This could be your last chance to a gun"

Jesus wept... 

[cordex]

Is anyone forgetting that the same ammo and component shortages happened during Obama's years in office?

I remember shortages.  I don't remember prices increasing anything remotely like as fast as we are seeing or staying elevated for nearly as long.

[Ben]

I remember shortages.  I don't remember prices increasing anything remotely like as fast as we are seeing or staying elevated for nearly as long.

Yes, this is the big difference. While it's moderating a bit now, we were looking at literally double pre-panic prices on ammo for a good long while.  I don't recall any previous shortages doubling ammo prices, outside of some of the charlatan gun show vendors. And there were good stretches this time where it was in fact impossible to get certain calibers, regardless of price.

As of now, it appears I can go to places like S&G ammo and get whatever calibers I shoot at around 30-50% over "normal". That is doable if you need ammo, but personally, I would only buy "as-needed" quantities at current prices. You won't see me buying 5000 round cases right now.

Also, the primer shortage is definitely serious. For me, it has been the only thing holding me back from shooting my normal amounts at the range. I've got plenty of other components.

[K Frame]

"I remember shortages.  I don't remember prices increasing anything remotely like as fast as we are seeing or staying elevated for nearly as long."

I remember things being distinctly different during the Obama years.

Many types of ammo, such s .22, 9, and .38, were in short supply, literally for years.

The price of .22 in many cases quadrupled.

Primers went from $12-$15 per brick to approaching $100 per brick and wavered around that point for several years.

Many of the most popular powders were virtually unavailable, and prices also spiked and stayed high.


But, this time is quite different in one important respect.

Mouth breathing panic monkeys sucked up the ammo on the sales end of the spectrum, causing artificially generated shortages, the same as happened with other commodities, like toilet paper. That was the same as before.

But this time Covid cut into the raw materials production side of the equation.

Effectively, the supply has been squeezed at both ends. But that's already being worked through as raw materials supplies come back on line.

[K Frame]

[cordex]

But this time Covid cut into the raw materials production side of the equation.

Effectively, the supply has been squeezed at both ends.

So in the Obama era there was panic buying.  Now we have panic buying and added on to that is widespread unavailability of the necessary raw materials both domestically and imports, as well as the reduction of importation of finished goods through a ban on Russian ammo.  Sounds like a kind of significant difference to me. 

It's sort of like the difference between maxing the credit card and maxing the credit card the day you get fired.

But that's already being worked through as raw materials supplies come back on line.

There are a lot of raw materials stuck out there on boats with those luxury goods you were talking about earlier, aren't there?

[French G.]

The local slimy charlatan....errrr, I mean veteran owned business has a roadside ammo stand. For the low low price of $25 you too can own your very own box of .22 lr. By this new economy path I am about to become a millionaire.

[Jim147]

During Obama I could still shoot every week. If I was doing that now I would have to live on the computer waiting for primers to come in.

I have a few thousand of each now but the replacements are hard to find and way to high.

[RoadKingLarry]

The local slimy charlatan....errrr, I mean veteran owned business has a roadside ammo stand. For the low low price of $25 you too can own your very own box of .22 lr. By this new economy path I am about to become a millionaire.

One of local farm and ranch stores just opened a new location in the next town over. Stopped in today while I was out running errands just to see the layout. The ammo shelf was fairly well stocked compared to recent times. 5 box limit. They had 5 boxes of Winchester 525 rd bulk .22 Lr. $39.95 a box, I bought 1. Also grabbed a 20 rd box of Aguila 12 Ga. Minishell slugs. I'm not optimistic but I'll see if they'll feed through my 870. If not I've got a single barrel 12 gauge to feed them to. First time I've seen the Minishells or bulk .22 Lr in the wild in quite a while.

[Angel Eyes]

[Cliffh]

Local Walmart has 300 rd boxes of .22lr, they got something like 50 boxes a couple weeks ago.  Normally, they would be gone by now even with a 3 box limit.

Problem is they're asking $40 per box.  Granted, it's a "special anniversary edition", 40gr @~1250fps.

But, very few people want to spend that much.

[HankB]

OMG! Ammo you want isn't available?

END TIMES! WE GONNA DIE!

Really? That's going to be the basis for assessing the totality of the health of the supply chain -- you can't get .45 ACP?

Sigh.

Oh, boy . . . 

Re-read the first line of my post - I didn't attempt to assess the totality of the health of the supply chain, I very specifically wrote  ". . . the supply chain for ammunition may not be broken - but it's definitely bent."

That's pretty far short of an "END TIMES" pronouncement, so calm down and don't hyperventilate.