Author Topic: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....  (Read 130983 times)

K Frame

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #2400 on: May 13, 2023, 08:21:09 AM »
"We're assuming here tha Ukrainian culture is far enough from Russian culture they wouldn't just shoot the prisoners?"

And if they were to do that...

Who gives a *expletive deleted*ck?
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Pb

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #2401 on: May 13, 2023, 08:52:10 AM »
Refraining from killing POWs is a good idea.  It would be easier for the Ukrainians to get Russians to surrender, if the Russians did not believe they were going to be murdered afterwards.

I do agree that if a foreign army invaded the USA, Americans (military or civilian) would gleefully murder enemy POWs with regularity.

sumpnz

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #2402 on: May 13, 2023, 11:58:30 AM »
I always felt that Putin's greatest desire (turns out to have been pretty correct) has been to reassemble the Soviet Union …

Assuming Zeihan is right, the last 400 years of Russian history has been a constant push by them to get to defensible territory.  Most of Russia is flat, wide open plains that a Mongol horde or Panzer division can easily race across.  The desire to expand their borders to geographical gaps they can plug with what has always been a limited population of soldiers has defined that history.  The Soviet era, when they controlled ALL of the important geographic gaps was the most secure the Russians have ever been, and all of the adventurism of the last 30 years has been to try to recreate that same feeling of security.

cordex

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #2403 on: May 13, 2023, 12:08:53 PM »
Refraining from killing POWs is a good idea.  It would be easier for the Ukrainians to get Russians to surrender, if the Russians did not believe they were going to be murdered afterwards.
Also, and continuing the pragmatic reasoning, killing Russian POWs encourages reprisals against Ukrainian POWs (and civilians). Not the best move for the smaller country who is hosting the war on its own territory.

WLJ

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #2404 on: May 13, 2023, 12:13:43 PM »
Refraining from killing POWs is a good idea.  It would be easier for the Ukrainians to get Russians to surrender, if the Russians did not believe they were going to be murdered afterwards.



Could also make it more likely for under trained and undisciplined conscripts to break and run if things look like they may be starting to go south even when they're not.
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MechAg94

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #2405 on: May 15, 2023, 09:21:04 AM »
Ukraine War Q&A: What Happened to the 500k Russian Soldiers? || Peter Zeihan
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mOGfw_Hx2-A

Thinks incompetent people around Putin are lying to him and the troop buildup isn't actually happening. 
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WLJ

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #2406 on: May 15, 2023, 09:35:53 AM »
Ukraine War Q&A: What Happened to the 500k Russian Soldiers? || Peter Zeihan
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mOGfw_Hx2-A

Thinks incompetent people around Putin are lying to him and the troop buildup isn't actually happening.

If true someone and/or several someones will be having an unfortunate accident from a high rise balcony.

Someone should start painting bingo grids on the sidewalks.
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JTHunter

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #2407 on: May 15, 2023, 05:31:06 PM »
Assuming Zeihan is right, the last 400 years of Russian history has been a constant push by them to get to defensible territory.  Most of Russia is flat, wide open plains that a Mongol horde or Panzer division can easily race across.  The desire to expand their borders to geographical gaps they can plug with what has always been a limited population of soldiers has defined that history.  The Soviet era, when they controlled ALL of the important geographic gaps was the most secure the Russians have ever been, and all of the adventurism of the last 30 years has been to try to recreate that same feeling of security.

An interesting theory that sounds logical as well.  You could be on to something.
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Pb

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #2408 on: May 15, 2023, 06:16:03 PM »
So, has Ukraine started an big counteroffensive?

MechAg94

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #2409 on: May 15, 2023, 10:54:21 PM »
An interesting theory that sounds logical as well.  You could be on to something.
One issue is all that territory lacks a lot of navigable rivers.  Without rail and roads, they have a lot more issues making all that territory productive.  The Mongol Hordes could live off the land.  The Germans struggled to keep their army supplied. 

I would also say that it is in the nature of powerful nations to seek to control the areas and nations around them.  We do that.  I think that is a lot of China's motivation.  I think Japan had that in mind pre-WWII. 

The question of Russia is how much of the Soviet era power do they truly possess?  A lot of people are saying they don't have the industrial capability to produce modern electronics needed for the latest generation weapons.  They seem to have fumbled the process of building a the T-14.  They didn't do a lot better with their newest AK rifle.  They do seem to have some capable fighter jets, but they are struggling to supply modern electronics for those also.  From what I heard, a big chunk of their stockpile of weapons and armor has been sold off to other nations over the last 20 years.  I don't know how much of a reserve they really have. 

They could turn things around and outlast the Ukrainians in the end, but I think they have shown NATO countries that their ability to project military power is pretty weak.  At this point, I don't think Putin's govt has the ability to recover from their current status. 
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MechAg94

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #2410 on: May 15, 2023, 10:59:11 PM »
So, has Ukraine started an big counteroffensive?
From what I hear, there is some sort of limited attack around Bakmut(sp).  I am not sure there is anything else going on. 

Russia had 4 aircraft shot down a bit inside their own territory over the weekend.  They were all inside a 20 mile circle.  I think they claimed it was man portable missiles.  I heard speculation their own anti-aircraft may have done it. 

There was also a big explosion in Ukraine.  Hopefully that wasn't a big chunk of the supplies they were trying to stockpile. 
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K Frame

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K Frame

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #2412 on: May 16, 2023, 07:28:53 AM »
Assuming Zeihan is right, the last 400 years of Russian history has been a constant push by them to get to defensible territory.  Most of Russia is flat, wide open plains that a Mongol horde or Panzer division can easily race across.  The desire to expand their borders to geographical gaps they can plug with what has always been a limited population of soldiers has defined that history.  The Soviet era, when they controlled ALL of the important geographic gaps was the most secure the Russians have ever been, and all of the adventurism of the last 30 years has been to try to recreate that same feeling of security.

Yeah, I think there's a lot to be said for that. That's one of the big reasons why Poland has been continually invaded over the last few hundred years -- it's either a pathway or a buffer zone.

That said, Putin's adventurism has done nothing to expand Russia's security and I, for one, am glad for it.
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MechAg94

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #2413 on: May 16, 2023, 03:30:37 PM »
More evidence that Russia's "unstoppable" hypersonic missiles are very... stoppable.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/humiliation-for-putin-s-unstoppable-superweapons-blasted-out-of-sky-by-u-s-defense-system/ar-AA1bfvjM?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=2af11e88bfbe4786aa234888c80f13c5&ei=72
One of those cultural differences between the US and Russia (Soviet?) maybe.  Russia almost always claimed better capabilities of vehicles and weapons than actual.  The US was the opposite, often the published capabilities were less than what they could actually do. 
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cordex

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #2414 on: May 16, 2023, 03:37:57 PM »
Having Russia’s relative impotence repeatedly hammered home is as worrying as it is comforting. Are their nukes similarly ineffective, or is that their last bastion of strength?

Angel Eyes

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #2415 on: May 16, 2023, 03:43:53 PM »
Having Russia’s relative impotence repeatedly hammered home is as worrying as it is comforting. Are their nukes similarly ineffective, or is that their last bastion of strength?

Stating the obvious here, but ...  if only 10% of Russia's nukes are functional, that's still roughly 600 warheads ... more than enough to *expletive deleted*ck up your day.
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cordex

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #2416 on: May 16, 2023, 03:52:22 PM »
Stating the obvious here, but ...  if only 10% of Russia's nukes are functional, that's still roughly 600 warheads ... more than enough to *expletive deleted*ck up your day.
Sure, I've said pretty much exactly that in this very thread:
I was thinking along those lines as well, but with their nuclear stockpile it's really just a numbers game.  It doesn't take very many functional nukes to ruin our day, and even one that fails to go nuclear still makes a mess.  If a mere one out of ten in their actual deployed force actually work then they have plenty to target all major population centers in the US and Europe and plenty to go around for extra hits.  Allegedly they're also in the middle of a nuclear modernization effort, so some are pretty new.

What do you do if your only viable tool is a hammer?

dogmush

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #2417 on: May 16, 2023, 04:22:46 PM »
I wonder, as a thought experiment, how bad the Russians are actually doing.

How do you think We would have done in Iraq without Air superiority and if the Iraqi's had been willing to stand and fight, and had been provided with $200bn in state of the art military hardware?


I fully agree the Red Army is not covering itself in glory, but I think everyone agrees if NATO hadn't decided to make this a proxy war, it'd be long over by now.

cordex

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #2418 on: May 16, 2023, 05:11:52 PM »
I wonder, as a thought experiment, how bad the Russians are actually doing.
This is a fair point.  They're attacking and it isn't unusual for attackers to take more casualties and there are plenty of dead and injured Ukrainians.  And we're getting a heavily slanted propaganda-infused filtration of the war.

How do you think We would have done in Iraq without Air superiority and if the Iraqi's had been willing to stand and fight, and had been provided with $200bn in state of the art military hardware?
Don't forget top-notch intel.  It wasn't luck that lead to Russian generals getting killed at every turn from the very beginning.  If I had to guess, I'd wager western intel was probably one of the biggest external contributors to Ukraine's survival in the first weeks of the war.

That said, Russia being unable to establish air superiority in its next door neighbor in the first place isn't a very good sign, is it?  Sure, the conflict has dragged on a lot longer because we keep pumping military resources into Ukraine, but the fact that Ukraine was able to survive the initial invasion before western equipment started pouring in does not speak well of Russian capabilities.

MechAg94

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #2419 on: May 16, 2023, 05:20:54 PM »
Stating the obvious here, but ...  if only 10% of Russia's nukes are functional, that's still roughly 600 warheads ... more than enough to *expletive deleted*ck up your day.
My next question would be if they know which are the 10%.  If not, that is a lot of dud warheads. 

Not sure what design differences there are, but my understanding is that we have had to rebuild a lot of our Cold War era nukes to be certain they worked. 
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WLJ

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #2420 on: May 16, 2023, 05:29:22 PM »
My next question would be if they know which are the 10%.  If not, that is a lot of dud warheads. 


Russian roulette with cities. That sounds fun.

« Last Edit: May 16, 2023, 05:54:26 PM by WLJ »
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dogmush

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #2421 on: May 16, 2023, 05:48:07 PM »

That said, Russia being unable to establish air superiority in its next door neighbor in the first place isn't a very good sign, is it?  Sure, the conflict has dragged on a lot longer because we keep pumping military resources into Ukraine, but the fact that Ukraine was able to survive the initial invasion before western equipment started pouring in does not speak well of Russian capabilities.

The Ukraine, not being imbeciles, had dumped a *expletive deleted*it ton of money into MANPADS and other Air Defense since 2014.  The Red Air Force's inability to establish air superiority over a whole country in a week or two isn't that unsurprising.

I also think we are seeing (again) the result between a lot of less sophisticated weapons, and comparatively fewer really good weapons.  Our strategy of less really good stuff does pretty well in the real world.  Except for the whole "we'd need to be at war again" thing I'd really like to see us turn Raptors and current gen AWACS loose on someone.  I think it'd be ugly for whomever we were upset at.

RoadKingLarry

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #2422 on: May 16, 2023, 06:24:24 PM »
Quote
The Red Air Force's inability to establish air superiority over a whole country in a week or two isn't that unsurprising.

Imagine the US not being able to establish air superiority over the state of Texas to more or less put it in perspective. (Texas being slightly larger area wise)
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dogmush

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #2423 on: May 16, 2023, 06:48:48 PM »
Imagine the US not being able to establish air superiority over the state of Texas to more or less put it in perspective. (Texas being slightly larger area wise)

If Texas had integrated air defenses and every redneck there had a case of Stingers, it might be pretty tough.
Air Combat and DEAD as a mission isn't my specialty, and I only have passing familiarity with it.  AFAIK, the last time the US saw even half-ass decent air defense was Baghdad.  In 1991 we had F-117's, a till then unknown capability that we used to great surprise, and in 2003, after 12 years of embargos they had a pasted together system of 25 year old rockets and sensors, which we, again, used stealth to take apart.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying the USAF couldn't have taken down the Ukrainian air defenses B2's F35's and F22's would have *expletive deleted*ed them up, but not being as good as the USAF isn't automatically *expletive deleted*it tier.  I am saying that if we had to try and provide CAS with A-10s and F/A-18's, against an enemy well supplied with Stingers, it might be ugly.

The Red Air Force does seem to be really lacking in ISR and Command and Control, even when they can manage to keep a Mainstay in the air.  Which goes back to my earlier point about fewer, more technologically advanced weapons (i.e. NATO strategy) seeming to be a winning strategy.

Mostly I'm thinking out loud, because it's likely we'll get to see what's left of the Russians, or the Chinese, or both up close this decade, and I don't want to fall into the trap of "those guys couldn't even beat Ukraine" when what they couldn't beat was the Ukraine, and all of NATO's logistics and reserve weaponry.  And all that crap hasn't beaten the Russians yet either.

THe Ukrainians are fighting a hell of an asymmetric war, and well utilizing the resources they have managed to get, and props to them for defending their homes as best they can.  I guess we'll see what this summer brings in terms of Russian troop commitment and NATO's fickle citizen's funding desires.

WLJ

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #2424 on: May 17, 2023, 08:12:02 AM »
More evidence that Russia's "unstoppable" hypersonic missiles are very... stoppable.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/humiliation-for-putin-s-unstoppable-superweapons-blasted-out-of-sky-by-u-s-defense-system/ar-AA1bfvjM?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=2af11e88bfbe4786aa234888c80f13c5&ei=72

Something straight out of Stalin's playbook

As usual when it's The Sun so have a grain of salt handy just in case.

VLAD’S PURGE Paranoid Putin arrests another hypersonic missile chief for ‘treason’ after his ‘unstoppable’ Kinzhals are downed
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/22385498/putin-arrests-another-hypersonic-missile-chief-treason/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sunyoutubestories
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