War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....

[dogmush]

There's also the issue that PRC doesn't actually have the sealift needed to pull off that invasion,  even if everything they have works perfectly.

Their long range strike capabilities are suspect as well.

[charby]

An all-out war with China would be some major suckage, for both both the US military and US citizens. Probably end up with a long lasting economic global depression for the survivors.

[WLJ]

There's the very real possibility their economy will crash in short order being so import (oil) and export depended. Won't do ours much good but it would be a disaster for them. Could throw the country into turmoil for years.

[HankB]

From the link MillCreek posted about wargaming US vs Chicoms

In every exercise the U.S. uses up all its long-range air-to-surface missiles in a few days, with a substantial portion of its planes destroyed on the ground.

I've been reading for years that our ammo supplies aren't what they should be if we're going to fight a major war - and we've funneled a lot of heavy munitions to Ukraine. Even our latest and greatest destroyers - the Zumwalt class - which cost over 7 billion each (IF you include R&D costs) have never taken to the high seas with a full load of ammo for their cannon since each round cost $800k. And the ships don't otherwise perform up to expectations, either.

I worry a bit about how China perceives US leadership - if they think our next POTUS will NOT be Biden, they may push up their timetable for attacking Taiwan. A second term for Joe would extend their window of opportunity by another 4 years.

[sumpnz]

An all-out war with China would be some major suckage, for both both the US military and US citizens. Probably end up with a long lasting economic global depression for the survivors.

It would be bad for sure, “long lasting” global depression though is not so likely.  We’re already well on the way a de-globalized world.  A devastated China would be a very bad thing regionally but probably not globally.  A deindustrialized China would mean a lower global demand for oil.  A lot of production is moving out of China anyway already. 

[K Frame]

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/06/09/america-weapons-china-00100373

If things get exciting with the PRC, it is not going to be pretty for us. Says the man who is seven miles downwind of the Jim Creek Naval Radio Station, one of the very first command, control and communication targets.

I remember reading so goddamned many similar articles in the 1970s and 1980s...

Only about the Soviet Union...

SOVIETS WILL CRUSH THE US IN A WAR! THEIR WEAPONS ARE NOT ONLY BETTER THAN OURS, BUT THERE ARE MORE OF THEM!!!

along with...

THE UNITED STATES IS IN TERMINAL NADIR! WE NEED TO EMBRACE THE FACT THAT THE SOVIET UNION IS IN PERMANENT ASCENDANCY AND THE US IS NOW JUST A HAS BEEN!

All of those fucksticks whose hopes, dreams, and expectations for the glorious rise of Soviet Communism crushing evil Western capitalism were left bereft by the collapse of the Soviet Union... but now they have a new hope upon which to hang their hatred of capitalism -- China.

They've picked up the torch and are using it to light fires of doom, gloom, and secretly, hope that the death of American capitalism is just a hairsbreadth away.

THE CHINESE HAVE MORE, AND BETTER, WEAPONS THAT WE DO! THEY'VE PASSED US IN EVERY TECHNOLOGICAL AND MILITARY CATEGORY THERE IS! WE NEED TO ACCEPT THAT AMERICA IS IN NADIR, AND COMMUNIST CHINA IS NOW THE NEW WORLD LEADER IN EVERY CATEGORY THERE IS!

Yeah... .whatever.

Our biggest enemy in an all out war with China?

It's not China.

It's our own Government. As in Joe Biden, Kamela Harris, AOC and her squad of America haters.

If the US were to really hope to win a war against China, those elements would have to be marginalized and minimized quickly and effectively, or as active lovers of all things Chinese they could quickly derail any effective response to Chinese aggression.

[Ben]

Our biggest enemy in an all out war with China?

It's not China.

It's our own Government. As in Joe Biden, Kamela Harris, AOC and her squad of America haters.

Sadly a major consideration. Regardless if you believe that we or China have the superior assets and warfighting capability, the bureaucratic is always the enemy of the operational.

I'm still of the opinion that China is on its way to passing us in warfighting assets, but their training still seems to be focused on homeland defense. I'd be more worried if we took the war to them versus them taking the war to us, or to anywhere outside their EEZ.

Edit: I'm talking conventional warfare. Nukes would of course be game over for everyone. Sadly, it's something to consider in the current environment.

[MillCreek]

Let’s say all of the leftists and Chinese propagandists (redundancy alert) are right, and our military equipment would get utterly smoked by the PLA in a head to head fight.  Still, all we have to do is either by ourselves or with help from (or even if we don’t help they can accomplish this on their own) India, Australia, Indonesia, Vietnam put destroyers, subs, etc in the Gulf of Oman, Indian Ocean, Straights of Malacca, South China Sea and Philippine Sea (out of range of most Chinese warships) and put an embargo on oil tankers going to China and China would deindustrialize and go into famine in 6 months.

In this area, we see a lot of coal trains headed up for Vancouver BC to be loaded onto bulk carriers and shipped off to the PRC to run power plants.  That would be gone as well.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/roslynlayton/2022/06/01/up-700-chinas-consumption-of-us-coal-drives-shortages-not--railroads/?sh=468c41d51168

[MillCreek]

I do think the article made some good points about the decline of our defense manufacturing base, and even if on a war footing, I think the capacity for rapid output is just not there.

[MechAg94]

The best comment I heard was that China is watching the Russia/Ukraine war with interest since most all of their weapons are copied from Russian designs.  Ukraine had 7 or 8 years to prepare and stopped Russia.  Taiwan has had decades to prepare and China can't simply walk into Taiwan. 

That article sounds like fear mongering in order to push for more defense funding. 

[charby]

It would be bad for sure, “long lasting” global depression though is not so likely.  We’re already well on the way a de-globalized world.  A devastated China would be a very bad thing regionally but probably not globally.  A deindustrialized China would mean a lower global demand for oil.  A lot of production is moving out of China anyway already.

Supposedly US has 44.5 Billion barrels of crude oil in the ground, just to run the US economy uses it 7.4 Billion barrels a year. All out war, well the use of that oil is switched to defense and severely rationed to everything else, like during WW2. I figure Canada and Mexico will at least sell us oil, if the rest of the world can't or won't. Both have quite a bit of reserves, but eventually the easy stuff will be consumed powering the war machine if it is a lengthy conflict.

China will destroy some of our infrastructure and we will destroy theirs. Probably at the same levels of Europe and Japan during WW2. It will take years to rebuild, much like Japan and Europe.

Just the loss of easy petroleum and infrastructure will send us into a global depression, because the global economy is extremely dependent on crude oil.

If nukes are dropped, even worse.

[sumpnz]

The best comment I heard was that China is watching the Russia/Ukraine war with interest since most all of their weapons are copied from Russian designs.  Ukraine had 7 or 8 years to prepare and stopped Russia.  Taiwan has had decades to prepare and China can't simply walk into Taiwan. 

That article sounds like fear mongering in order to push for more defense funding. 

Well, we probably do need more defense funding just to replenish our stockpiles.  Plus, technology doesn’t stop advancing so if we don’t want to find ourselves at a disadvantage in a decade or three we have to keep advancing our weapons capabilities.

The fact that I would personally profit from such spending is irrelevant.

[sumpnz]

Supposedly US has 44.5 Billion barrels of crude oil in the ground, just to run the US economy uses it 7.4 Billion barrels a year. All out war, well the use of that oil is switched to defense and severely rationed to everything else, like during WW2. I figure Canada and Mexico will at least sell us oil, if the rest of the world can't or won't. Both have quite a bit of reserves, but eventually the easy stuff will be consumed powering the war machine if it is a lengthy conflict.

China will destroy some of our infrastructure and we will destroy theirs. Probably at the same levels of Europe and Japan during WW2. It will take years to rebuild, much like Japan and Europe.

Just the loss of easy petroleum and infrastructure will send us into a global depression, because the global economy is extremely dependent on crude oil.

If nukes are dropped, even worse.

You’re about 50% low based my 5 seconds of googling, and that’s for “proven” reserves.  Which is usually a very conservative estimate, and is based on current extraction methods.  There’s always lots more that is just a bit more expensive to extract. 

Rebuilding is inflationary but also highly stimulating to the economy.  Not saying it would be a good thing, but it’s not depression causing.  Besides you’re stuck on globalism as though it will be the status quo forever.  Globalization is coming to an end and regionalism is going to become the norm over the next decades.  And whether we (or any other major country) fight a war with China or not (hopefully not) China will cease to be an economic entity of consequence for us within a decade or so.

[K Frame]

The best comment I heard was that China is watching the Russia/Ukraine war with interest since most all of their weapons are copied from Russian designs.  Ukraine had 7 or 8 years to prepare and stopped Russia.  Taiwan has had decades to prepare and China can't simply walk into Taiwan. 

That article sounds like fear mongering in order to push for more defense funding. 

And the NATO weapons that the are being forwarded to the Ukrainians are showing themselves to be leaps and bounds ahead of what the Russians are fielding.

[K Frame]

"All out war, well the use of that oil is switched to defense and severely rationed to everything else, like during WW2."

Oddly enough, gasoline and oil rationing during World War II wasn't due to need to conserve distillates for the war effort.

It was to cut down on civilian use of rubber and make sure that only those people who NEEDED to drive were driving.

During WW II the US was producing more oil than the rest of the world combined, and even with the war economy had pretty significant reserves. By 1945 the US was pumping over 60% of the world's crude oil production.

Rubber, on the other hand? The Japanese push into the Pacific interdicted over 90% of the US's pre-war supply of natural rubber. Synthetic rubber was an up and coming technology, but it was still largely in its infancy and what was being manufactured truly WAS needed for the war economy.

Civilian use of rubber was virtually eliminated during the war.

Interestingly enough, though, one civilian use did have a very high priority -- home canning seals.

With the push to get Americans to grow as much of their own food as possible, there needed to be a way to preserve it, and in the age before widespread home freezers, the primary way was canning.

By 1944 almost 70% of the fruit and vegetables consumed on the home front were being grown in home gardens.

[WLJ]

Yeah but don't too complacence about the superiority of our equipment.  Bit us in the behind in 1941/42 when we found about the A6M, Type 91, and that the Japanese were far superior in naval night fighting the hard way.

[K Frame]

Read my posts again and show me where I'm complacent about the capabilities of Chinese military hardware.

I've really not said, well, anything about Chinese equipment, other than repeating what the CHINA IS NOW GOD FOR ALL TIME!!! aholes have been saying for years.

[MechAg94]

I am not necessarily saying our equipment is superior, simply that China's equipment/weapons are certainly NOT superior and we shouldn't put them up on some sort of pedestal.  IMO, our Navy is a significant step above China in power in total.  They might be close in total platforms, but most of our ships are open ocean capable ships where theirs are not.  Doesn't mean they can't hurt us badly, especially if we are stupid.  I would also point out that China is a one-man dictatorship these days and I hear that anyone with the potential to challenge his leadership has been removed.  I imagine that doesn't do much for your subordinate leadership. 

The other part is all we really have to do in the event of a conflict is keep them off Taiwan.  We don't have to conquer them.  Given time, we can easily cut off their imports for energy, food, raw materials, and fertilizer.  I heard the point made that India had the navy to do that in the event of a war as China's ships can't operate that far. 

The Deck of Fujian Aircraft Carrier Cracked? Google Earth Caught It!China VS US Aircraft Carrier
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pEdHOt7nnVo

I saw video the other day talking about the Taiwan navy and air force.  It made the claim their armed forces was better trained and more professional than China's even if their jets and ships are not as new.  Hopefully, we don't have to see that tested.

[WLJ]

Read my posts again and show me where I'm complacent about the capabilities of Chinese military hardware.

I've really not said, well, anything about Chinese equipment, other than repeating what the CHINA IS NOW GOD FOR ALL TIME!!! aholes have been saying for years.

Wasn't aimed at you but people in general

[French G.]

There's a weapon we aren't sending Ukraine, MK48 ADCAPs. South China Sea sinkex. Any dust up with China needs to be day one shock and awe. Anything that flies or floats ceases to do so. Send every SSGN and empty them of tomahawks on any good target. As soon as air defenses are neutralized the B-52s from Andersen show up. No half measures.

[MechAg94]

Ukraine lessons make China unlikely to risk Taiwan invasion: Peter Zeihan
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ZoqlIHvO7g

This guy runs down a few of the reasons he thinks China is rethinking plans to invade Taiwan and how vulnerable they are if the entire world sanctions them like they are doing to Russia.

[WLJ]

Ukraine lessons make China unlikely to risk Taiwan invasion: Peter Zeihan
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ZoqlIHvO7g

This guy runs down a few of the reasons he thinks China is rethinking plans to invade Taiwan and how vulnerable they are if the entire world sanctions them like they are doing to Russia.

Apples and oranges IMHO putting the sanctions aspect aside. Not only would the invasion be primarily amphibious in nature but you also have to consider that if China can establish even partial local naval and superiority Taiwan can be far more isolated. Russia really can't do much about the flow of arms and other supplies into Ukraine unless they start attacking NATO counties directly without all hell breaking loose.

[sumpnz]

Apples and oranges IMHO putting the sanctions aspect aside. Not only would the invasion be primarily amphibious in nature but you also have to consider that if China can establish even partial local naval and superiority Taiwan can be far more isolated. Russia really can't do much about the flow of arms and other supplies into Ukraine unless they start attacking NATO counties directly without all hell breaking loose.

Most China watchers expect that the strategy for an invasion of Taiwan will start by hitting as much of the USN as is in range of non-nuclear weapons.  Then invade and conquer Taiwan before the US pacific fleet can respond (it’s like 6 weeks to sail from the west coast to China, probably 2-3 weeks from Hawaii).  The idea being to take the USN out of the fight before it starts and by the time they can get back in the fight it would be over. 

That presupposes that A) they can sink/cripple that much of our fleet that quickly, B ) there won’t be any non-conventional retaliation, C) we won’t go after them just like we did Japan in 1942-45 afterwards (excluding nukes), D) the world at large won’t care/sanction/retaliate, E) they can invade and conquer Taiwan in under a month.

All of that is suspect at best. 

[dogmush]

Tiawan is less than a week sailing time from Pearl.  Plus if a shooting war starts 5th fleet is7 or 8 days away, the Air Force has forward deployed long range strike assets.

If a "Pearl Harbor repeat" surprise attack is their plan they'd have 3-6 days to finish the invasion,  and that's assuming they actually kill all the attack boats in the area. At any given time 7th fleet has 10-12 boats running around out there.

It is extremely unlikely that the PLA could transport and supply an invasion force big enough to forcefully conquer Taiwan unless the US Navy decided to let them.

[cordex]

Plus, the build-up to such an attack would be something we'd be likely to notice, just like we did with Putin's Ukraine invasion.