War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....

[K Frame]

Putin just announced that:

A) He's being successful in outlasting the west's waning interest in the Ukraine situation and because of that he's going to win, and

B) Russia is entitled to the entirety of Ukraine's Black Sea coast.

In other words, Putin has no intention of making any concessions at all.

[charby]

Nope.

But I'm also not convinced it is going to be a good thing if Russia loses.

I think it is less f**ked if Ukraine comes out on top, but Mother Russia will continue to have a perpetual chip on her shoulder about the Ukraine region.

[Ron]

Trusting "our" globalist neocon geopolitical strategists who are running our foreign policy is as crazy as trusting Putin to have our best interests at heart.

[K Frame]

I think it is less f**ked if Ukraine comes out on top, but Mother Russia will continue to have a perpetual chip on her shoulder about the Ukraine region.

Mother Russia will continue to have a chip on its shoulder about everything.

They're still frosted that Finland is its own independent country.

[Ron]

The war is over, now is just jockeying for the size of the partition Russia keeps.

[cordex]

The war is over, now is just jockeying for the size of the partition Russia keeps.

Probably, but that was the case from the moment Russia crossed the border. Or when they marched into Crimea, for that matter.

Doesn’t mean that if we were in Ukrainian shoes we wouldn’t fight to keep whatever we could.

[Ron]

Russia and the USA both took absolutist positions and the Ukrainians chose poorly, if they really had a choice.

There has been plenty of Western and Russian interference in Ukraine's domestic situation and elections. It would be naive to think otherwise.

It really never was about the Ukrainian people, it's been about the West vs Russia all along.

[dogmush]

The war is over, now is just jockeying for the size of the partition Russia keeps.

This is 100% untrue and dangerous to think.  The war is stalemated,  and currently just chewing up people and terrain. Neither side fighting, nor the third parties propping up Ukraine think it's over, and there's plenty of escalation still available on both sides.

When both sides are at a table negotiating in good faith, THEN Ron's statement will be correct.

[Ron]

It's not a stalemate if one side is dying faster than the other. They're running out of Ukrainians.

You think NATO or the US is going to "officially" commit troops and in numbers enough to face the Russians on the ground?

Our uni-party globalists and NATO screwed the pooch on this one big time.


 

[Hawkmoon]

Our uni-party globalists and NATO screwed the pooch on this one big time.

THAT is correct.

[dogmush]

It's not a stalemate if one side is dying faster than the other. They're running out of Ukrainians.

You think NATO or the US is going to "officially" commit troops and in numbers enough to face the Russians on the ground?

Our uni-party globalists and NATO screwed the pooch on this one big time.

I'd say 30% or so chance we escalate. Depends on what our election and economy do, and what the European energy market does this winter.

It's a stalemate in that they aren't losing Ukrainians fast enough that the war will be over before any of the current math changes.

If what you think was accurate,  then Putin would be gearing up to head back to Kiev, and he's not.

[MillCreek]

https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-has-likely-suffered-480k-casualties-in-ukraine-uk-intel-2023-10

Interesting estimates of Russian casualties by the UK.

[WLJ]

Even if they win in the end the Russians should ask themselves was it worth the cost?
And also even if they win there's going to be one heck of an insurgency for years maybe even decades to come further draining Russian manpower.
And this is not even counting the damage done to relations with Russia's neighbors. Who on Russian's borders is going to trust them any time soon?

[WLJ]

Meanwhile Putin is throwing thinly veiled threats Finland's way

Russian President Vladimir Putin has vowed "problems" for Finland after he says the Nordic country was "dragged into NATO" amid the war in Ukraine.

"Look, Finland was taken and dragged into NATO," Putin said in a new on-camera interview. "What did we have, some kind of dispute with Finland? All disputes, including those of a territorial nature in the middle of the 20th century, were all resolved a long time ago. We had the best, most heartfelt relations. Economically, everything was developing. Yes, in the timber industry, there were some problems linked to the necessity to develop timber processing within the country. But that was all. Just a small detail in reality."

Yeah, they were dragged 

Putin promises 'problems' for Finland after it was 'dragged into NATO'
https://www.foxnews.com/world/putin-promises-problems-finland-dragged-nato

[Ron]

I'd say 30% or so chance we escalate. Depends on what our election and economy do, and what the European energy market does this winter.

It's a stalemate in that they aren't losing Ukrainians fast enough that the war will be over before any of the current math changes.

If what you think was accurate,  then Putin would be gearing up to head back to Kiev, and he's not.

It probably is an overoptimistic supposition on my part that NATO and the USA won't escalate to officially moving troops into Ukraine.

[cordex]

If what you think was accurate,  then Putin would be gearing up to head back to Kiev, and he's not.

Putin has a significant amount of what I think he wanted. If true, holding it is sufficient.

[dogmush]

Putin has a significant amount of what I think he wanted. If true, holding it is sufficient.

I think he actually has a little more land than he planned for at the onset.  He would probably be open to negotiations to end hostilities, but the other side isn't.

Just speculating based on what I know of Russian strategic interests.

For whatever reason(s) the west is unwilling to accept Russia increasing their territory again, so it seems like we're committed to pushing Russia back to the pre war borders. If Ukraine starts to really run out of people we'll need to decide how committed we are.

On the home front, I wouldn't put a "Wag the Dog" play past an embattled uniparty this coming year.  They'll need an inciting incident of some kind to justify it to the normies, but that can be arranged.

I also would not put it past the Ukraine, if they think they are really losing the war or losing Western aid to find some Russian uniforms and a Russian body or two, and stage an "attack" on something NATO cares about.

[WLJ]

Normally this wouldn't go here but after a spate of high profile people connected to Putin falling off of high rises one wonders what did Santa have on Putin? Santa does know if you'll been naughty or good.

'Father Christmas' falls to his death from 24-storey building in front of horrified children: Climber dressed as Santa is killed during Russian abseil stunt
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12893033/father-christmas-death-fall-children-russian-abseil-stunt.html

[WLJ]

I'm starting to see a pattern here

Putin Ally Found Dead After Falling From Third-Floor Window: Reports
https://www.newsweek.com/vladimir-egorov-putin-ally-found-dead-window-1856059

[Hawkmoon]

I'm starting to see a pattern here

Putin Ally Found Dead After Falling From Third-Floor Window: Reports
https://www.newsweek.com/vladimir-egorov-putin-ally-found-dead-window-1856059

Vlad isn't even trying to be subtle.

[Pb]

Why are Putin's critics so awful at washing windows? 

[Ben]

Over $1 Billion in weapons and equipment unaccounted for. Gee, what a shocker. I wouldn't be surprised if the oligarchs are selling it all to Hamas and African warlords.

https://twitchy.com/brettt/2024/01/11/a-billion-in-military-hardware-is-unaccounted-for-in-ukraine-n2391666

[WLJ]

Cue the speculation

A journalist who took aim at Russian officials and promised to release details of "gigantic corruption" was found dead near a roadside over the weekend, but the circumstances of his death remain shrouded in mystery.

"It will be almost impossible to determine whether foul play was involved Rybin’s death or whether he died of heart disease as some Russian media outlets claim," Rebekah Koffler, a strategic military intelligence analyst and the author of "Putin's Playbook," told Fox News Digital.

Russian journalist who criticized Putin's admin of 'gigantic corruption' found dead
Alexander Rybin promised to release details of corruption in Mariuopol
https://www.foxnews.com/world/russian-journalist-who-criticized-putins-admin-gigantic-corruption-found-dead

[RocketMan]

That's one of Fox News stories that requires you to give them your email address to read.  It started out as just the occasional story.  Now it's up to roughly 2/3rds of the stories that require an email address.  Their site is darn near unreadable now.  Not going to do it.  I don't want their spam clogging my inbox.

[Ben]

That's one of Fox News stories that requires you to give them your email address to read.  It started out as just the occasional story.  Now it's up to roughly 2/3rds of the stories that require an email address.  Their site is darn near unreadable now.  Not going to do it.  I don't want their spam clogging my inbox.

Same here. I could give them a throwaway email, but at this point it's the principle of the thing. Not just with Fox, but with all of them. They certainly have a right to require email addresses or put up paywalls, but I just don't jump through their hoops anymore, even if it looks like an interesting story.

What I have done in the past with fox every morning is open up their main page, then scan for interesting stories and right click them each into a new tab, then read through them. Now that so many require access, I just close out the tabs on all of them that do.