From Putin's speech
That makes zero sense. Why would they move toward an area they know contains high concentrations of Russian troops? And besides Ukraine isn't exactly across the street from Moscow, much better to flee into the forests east of Moscow regroup and maybe attack again.
It makes pretty decent sense. The only closer international border to Moscow is Belarus, and they would definitely help the Russians and turn over the terrorists if caught. North eastern Ukraine is only 3 or 4 hours drive from Moscow if they had cleared the city, if you have contact with someone in Ukraine it'd be pretty easy to find somewhere without active combat, and once in Ukraine you're probably home free. Staying in Russia is a horrible idea, as once they recover from the shock of the attack, Russia has a huge security apparatus to mobilize (as evidenced by the capture of the folks they got). The Suburban and Semi-rural Moscow area is also not ethnically diverse, so those shooters would stick out like a sore thumb trying to hide in the forest anywhere near Moscow. They'd damn near have to cross the Volga to find somewhere in Russia to blend in. Ukraine, while a long shot, was probably their best bet.
Interesting that huge signage in English - CROCUS CITY HALL - was so very prominent on the building in Moscow. Makes me wonder if the venue was designed to attract tourists.
From what I could make out in the available videos, all the weapons appeared to be AK-pattern, I didn't spot any AR-pattern long arms.
It seems like this is shaping up to be more standard Islamic violence and my concerns look to be unfounded, but remember NATO, and even the US, give out a lot of AK pattern weapons to our proxies all over the world. Makes it easier for them to find ammo a lot of places.
That said, if ISIS-K is actually behind this it's pretty unlikely we helped them in any way. We're still pretty pissed about the bomb they set off outside Kabul Airport in 2021
