Author Topic: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....  (Read 186470 times)

WLJ

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Ben

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3076 on: March 23, 2024, 09:15:43 AM »
Okay, I guess I am out of the loop. Can someone educate me on current Russian/ISIS beefs that would lead to this?
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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3077 on: March 23, 2024, 09:16:47 AM »
The Russians are going to lose their *expletive deleted*it over this.

Best case it's some Islamic terrorists from one of the hinterlands, and we just get some old fashioned gulags and mass killings.

Worst case it's a group with ties to Ukraine  and those weapons can be traced to a NATO military aid package.  That probably would mean a real war.



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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3078 on: March 23, 2024, 09:26:33 AM »
Okay, I guess I am out of the loop. Can someone educate me on current Russian/ISIS beefs that would lead to this?
Russian involvement in Syria maybe?

HankB

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3079 on: March 23, 2024, 09:28:22 AM »
I think the Ukrainians are smart enough not to deliberately attack & kill a bunch of civilians - if they had operatives ready to go in Moscow, I'd expect them to either hit something like a power plant or oil/gas facility, or start sniping at uniformed Russians, either soldiers or police. A directed campaign against infrastructure or the Russian military/police establishment wouldn't cause the s***storm of negative publicity that a concert attack would. My money is on some kind of Moslem group.

Interesting that huge signage in English - CROCUS CITY HALL - was so very prominent on the building in Moscow. Makes me wonder if the venue was designed to attract tourists.

. . . Worst case it's a group with ties to Ukraine  and those weapons can be traced to a NATO military aid package.  That probably would mean a real war. . . .
From what I could make out in the available videos, all the weapons appeared to be AK-pattern, I didn't spot any AR-pattern long arms.
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WLJ

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3080 on: March 23, 2024, 09:29:22 AM »
Okay, I guess I am out of the loop. Can someone educate me on current Russian/ISIS beefs that would lead to this?

From the BBC
Note Chechnya being mentioned. A lot of attacks in Russian have had a Chechnya connection

Quote
Why would Islamic State attack Russia?

Will Vernon

BBC News, Washington DC

An Islamic State affiliate's claim that it was behind the Moscow attack would, if proved correct, be the latest in a number of Islamist-linked attacks in or against Russia in recent years.

A Russian plane was blown up over Egypt’s Sinai desert in 2015 with 224 people on board, most of them Russian citizens.

That attack was claimed by Islamic State, which later published a photograph of the explosive device.

In 2017, a bomb attack on the St Petersburg metro that killed 15 people was also linked to radical Islamists.

Militant groups have been fighting Russian forces in the North Caucasus region of the country for decades.

Large numbers of them flocked to Syria to join IS when the group was formed 10 years ago. Some militants that operate in the Russian North Caucasus have declared allegiance to IS, say experts.

But the specific group that has claimed today’s attack, ISIS-K, is the Islamic State affiliate in Khorasan - an old term for a region that includes parts of Iran, Turkmenistan and Afghanistan.

Counterterrorism experts say Russia has found itself “in the crosshairs” of ISIS-K, which frequently criticises President Putin in its propaganda.

It accuses the Kremlin of atrocities against Muslim people in military campaigns in Chechnya and Syria, as well as in the Soviet-era invasion of Afghanistan.
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-68642036?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=65fe306cb26acd1fbf32f832%26Why%20would%20Islamic%20State%20attack%20Russia%3F%262024-03-23T02%3A04%3A17.231Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:5bedb4a1-41f7-4d60-af91-128fd3a686dd&pinned_post_asset_id=65fe306cb26acd1fbf32f832&pinned_post_type=share
« Last Edit: March 23, 2024, 09:41:55 AM by WLJ »
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WLJ

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3081 on: March 23, 2024, 09:45:21 AM »
Quote
Baza - with close law enforcement contacts - showed images of four suspects, all from ex-Soviet republic Tajikistan, which borders Afghanistan.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13230367/russia-arrest-moscow-massacre-crocus-concert-death.html
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WLJ

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3082 on: March 23, 2024, 09:54:09 AM »
143 reported dead now
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WLJ

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3083 on: March 23, 2024, 09:58:26 AM »
From Putin's speech

Quote
They tried to hide and moved towards Ukraine, where, according to preliminary data, a window was prepared for them from the Ukrainian side to cross the state border."

That makes zero sense. Why would they move toward an area they know contains high concentrations of Russian troops? And besides Ukraine isn't exactly across the street from Moscow, much better to flee into the forests east of Moscow regroup and maybe attack again.
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RocketMan

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3084 on: March 23, 2024, 10:37:08 AM »
From Putin's speech

That makes zero sense. Why would they move toward an area they know contains high concentrations of Russian troops? And besides Ukraine isn't exactly across the street from Moscow, much better to flee into the forests east of Moscow regroup and maybe attack again.

Could be Putin is trying to justify to the world heavier action against Ukraine.  I think he would love to use WMDs if he thought he could get away with it.  Given his megalomania, this might push him past whatever has been holding him back until now.
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dogmush

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3085 on: March 23, 2024, 11:54:04 AM »
From Putin's speech

That makes zero sense. Why would they move toward an area they know contains high concentrations of Russian troops? And besides Ukraine isn't exactly across the street from Moscow, much better to flee into the forests east of Moscow regroup and maybe attack again.

It makes pretty decent sense.  The only closer international border to Moscow is Belarus, and they would definitely help the Russians and turn over the terrorists if caught.  North eastern Ukraine is only 3 or 4 hours drive from Moscow if they had cleared the city, if you have contact with someone in Ukraine it'd be pretty easy to find somewhere without active combat, and once in Ukraine you're probably home free.  Staying in Russia is a horrible idea, as once they recover from the shock of the attack, Russia has a huge security apparatus to mobilize (as evidenced by the capture of the folks they got).  The Suburban and Semi-rural Moscow area is also not ethnically diverse, so those shooters would stick out like a sore thumb trying to hide in the forest anywhere near Moscow.  They'd damn near have to cross the Volga to find somewhere in Russia to blend in.  Ukraine, while a long shot, was probably their best bet.


Interesting that huge signage in English - CROCUS CITY HALL - was so very prominent on the building in Moscow. Makes me wonder if the venue was designed to attract tourists.
From what I could make out in the available videos, all the weapons appeared to be AK-pattern, I didn't spot any AR-pattern long arms.

It seems like this is shaping up to be more standard Islamic violence and my concerns look to be unfounded, but remember NATO, and even the US, give out a lot of AK pattern weapons to our proxies all over the world.  Makes it easier for them to find ammo a lot of places.


That said, if ISIS-K is actually behind this it's pretty unlikely we helped them in any way.  We're still pretty pissed about the bomb they set off outside Kabul Airport in 2021

Jim147

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3086 on: March 23, 2024, 03:02:03 PM »
Anyone ever heard of the CIA? Puten will hit them hard and then the house will cave on a huge check to send to uncle Z. I bet they even cut their break short to come back and vote on it.
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Ben

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3087 on: March 23, 2024, 05:06:24 PM »
Sounds about right:

Quote
ISIS: “We did it.”
Russia: “ISIS did it.”
USA: “ISIS did it.”

People on social media:
“Israel did it.”
“Ukraine did it.”
“The CIA did it.”
“The Russians did it to themselves.”
“It didn’t even happen.”
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WLJ

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3088 on: March 23, 2024, 05:22:59 PM »
"Sometimes I think the surest sign that intelligent life exists elsewhere in the universe is that none of it has tried to contact us".
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Opportunity

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3089 on: March 24, 2024, 06:59:10 AM »
gentlemen, I suggest at least today not to dance on the bones, we already know about 133 dead and today is a day of national mourning, let's just pray for those killed...

WLJ

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3090 on: March 24, 2024, 07:31:34 AM »
gentlemen, I suggest at least today not to dance on the bones, we already know about 133 dead and today is a day of national mourning, let's just pray for those killed...

No one here as far as I know is dancing on the bones.
I myself am horrified 

This was definitely ISIS's MO
ISIS says it was ISIS
Russia says it was ISIS
US says it was ISIS
The British says it was ISIS

Meanwhile you got goofballs on the internet saying it was everyone from the Israelis to Mary Poppins.
The above was mocking that.

That said expect criticism of Putin and Russian Security since they were given warnings that this exact type of attack by ISIS was in the works and apparently chose to blow it off and Putin has been trying to pin this at least partially on Ukraine since the attack. Such criticism is IMHO NOT bone dancing.
« Last Edit: March 24, 2024, 08:03:44 PM by WLJ »
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WLJ

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3091 on: March 24, 2024, 08:05:38 AM »
It seems like this is shaping up to be more standard Islamic violence and my concerns look to be unfounded, but remember NATO, and even the US, give out a lot of AK pattern weapons to our proxies all over the world.  Makes it easier for them to find ammo a lot of places.


A lot of NATO members that are former Warsaw Pact members have been converting to 5.56x45 rifles and have stockpiles of 5.45 and 7.62x39 AKs. Many probably have been shipping some of those stockpiles to Ukraine. I'm sure that will come up.

That said the AK in the only close up photo I've seen so far of one appeared to an AK-12 variant. Has Russia shipped AK-12s to anyone? Of course there always the possibility they were capture in Syria. How easy is it to get AK-12s in Russia?
« Last Edit: March 24, 2024, 08:25:52 AM by WLJ »
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dogmush

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3092 on: March 24, 2024, 08:51:53 AM »
gentlemen, I suggest at least today not to dance on the bones, we already know about 133 dead and today is a day of national mourning, let's just pray for those killed...

I wasn't grave dancing, and I hope my posts didn't come off that way.  I was fervently hoping we didn't have anything to do with it, and I am concerned about the repercussions when you guys (justifiably) take vengeance,  but that's more a statement on my government than yours.

I am sorry for the loss of life your country experienced.  Terrorists deserve to be shot like dogs. In a sane world our countries could cooperate to remove ISIS-K from this planet since they are have hit us both, sadly the world is far from sane.

Hawkmoon

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3093 on: March 24, 2024, 04:57:12 PM »
gentlemen, I suggest at least today not to dance on the bones, we already know about 133 dead and today is a day of national mourning, let's just pray for those killed...

Nobody here is dancing on any bones.
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WLJ

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3094 on: March 24, 2024, 05:29:34 PM »
Their 70 virgins will had to wait for the Russians to be done with them.

Quote
The Russian Investigative Committee detained four suspected terrorists and their barbaric torture techniques have been seen on social media, including one video which shows a Russian agent severing a man's ear off before trying to force him to eat it.

Another photograph shows one of the suspected terrorists, named as Shamsuddin Fariddun, lying on a gym floor with his trousers pulled down and wires evidently attached to his groin area.

He is visibly foaming from the mouth and appears to be clenching his teeth, while a man in military uniform stands with his foot on the leg of the suspect.

Image shows Russian forces torturing Moscow terror suspect by hooking his genitals up to 80v battery leaving him foaming at the mouth - as new footage emerges of the slaughter that left more than 140 dead
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13233511/Russian-forces-torturing-Moscow-terror-suspect-hooking-genitals-battery.html
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cordex

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3095 on: March 24, 2024, 07:55:31 PM »
Assuming they have the right guys then I’m trying to work up an outrage but I just can’t manage it.

That said, it would have been nice if Putin would have heeded the specific warnings he got so the bad guys could have been stopped before they did their work.

Ben

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3096 on: March 24, 2024, 08:05:21 PM »
Assuming they have the right guys then I’m trying to work up an outrage but I just can’t manage it.

That said, it would have been nice if Putin would have heeded the specific warnings he got so the bad guys could have been stopped before they did their work.

Agree with all the above, but I have to wonder if Russian warned us if we would act (or act enough) or not.
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WLJ

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3097 on: March 24, 2024, 08:18:11 PM »
I have to wonder if Russian warned us if we would act (or act enough) or not.

I've wondered that myself but I'm sure a lot depends on the nature of the warning.
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MechAg94

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3098 on: March 24, 2024, 09:53:33 PM »
Warnings can often sound a lot more specific in hindsight than they do before an incident. 
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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3099 on: March 25, 2024, 12:05:00 AM »
Daniel Davis does a deep dive into the concert massacre (spoiler alert: he doubts that it was ISIS-K):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vxZxFfe6tbU
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