Author Topic: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....  (Read 282685 times)

K Frame

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3300 on: January 11, 2025, 08:34:04 PM »
They still are on that path.

They are literally building an amphib invasion fleet.

And they've been building nuclear weapons, including nuclear-capable ICBMs, almost as long as I've been alive (7 decades now)...

So the point is? The second their fleet of Ding Dongs hits the water they're going to war?

Just because they're building an amphibious fleet doesn't mean that they WILL use it the second it comes on line.
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Ron

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3301 on: January 11, 2025, 08:35:52 PM »
They've been saying that since before Russia invaded Ukraine.

Things like Russia's going to roll over Ukraine in 3 days, and By next week there won't be a Ukraine.

At every turn it's RUSSIA'S GONNA TAKE THEM DOWN ANY DAY NOW!

I've said it before, I'll say it again -- ship Ukraine weapons, all the weapons they want, and LET. RUSSIA. BLEED.
We must let Ukraine be destroyed in order to save it.
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K Frame

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3302 on: January 11, 2025, 08:48:08 PM »
Don't underestimate the Chinese and they have been taking notes.

 :facepalm:


Please show me where anyone in this thread is underestimating the Chinese...

So, cranial exercise time, especially since the Chinese have been "taking notes."

Which would be more noteworthy to the Chinese

A United States that shrugs its shoulders and professes complete indifference when a known unfriendly nation decides to flex its muscles and not only threaten a neutral nation but also multiple allied nations?

Or a United States that responds positively and strongly to said threat and moves strongly to counter it?

As an example, Dean Acheson and his speech that South Korea was not a particularly important part of America's security zone.

That off-handed dismissal was all the North Koreans, Chinese, and Soviets needed to justify the invasion of South Korea less than 6 months later.


« Last Edit: January 11, 2025, 09:02:58 PM by K Frame »
MAGA unto others as you would have them MAGA unto you!

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K Frame

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3303 on: January 11, 2025, 08:54:56 PM »
We must let Ukraine be destroyed in order to save it.

Well, sometimes blowtorch and corkscrew is an effective method.
MAGA unto others as you would have them MAGA unto you!

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The gift which I am sending you is called a dog, and is in fact the most precious and valuable possession of mankind
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MechAg94

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3304 on: January 11, 2025, 10:17:18 PM »
I wouldn't want to underestimate the Chinese.  Expect the worst and all that.  But I also wouldn't underestimate how much how their dictatorial communist govt has undermined their ability and readiness.  They just had a new submarine under construction sink in the harbor last year.  Most of their weapons are copies of Russian weapons pre-Ukraine.  I figure they are like the Russians.  Decent first line forces that fall apart the deeper you go.  All designed to look good.  Actual performance may vary.  And Russian armed forces had some fighting experience prior to the Ukraine invasion as compared to the Chinese.  They won't be able to use artillery and human wave tactics to invade Taiwan. 

I am a bit curious what China (as well as other countries) are learning from the Ukraine conflict about drones and drone tactics.  Seems to me that could change things both ways.

Also, from what I understand, we have been upgrading airfields and logistics bases in the South Pacific that are secondary from the main chain of islands facing China.  Now we just need to make sure our weapon inventories are in better condition.
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cordex

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3305 on: January 11, 2025, 11:18:02 PM »
China operates their military on a different level than Russia. Compare the ships of the Kuznetzov class and variants as operated by Russia and China (or India) as an example …

Granted, first in class is going to have teething problems, but it has spent more than half its operational lifespan in dry dock, which is not the case for any of the other ships in class operated by China and India.  China’s Soviet hull ran great for an experimental testbed and their domestic variant better still.

When the pride of your fleet is a 34 year dumpster fire that relies on tugs as primary propulsion, and the same hull runs fine for all other operators (including an operator with a budget half the size) it says a lot about the Russian military.

Russia excels in a number of military fields, but corruption is endemic, the Russian military does what is inspected, not expected … and inspections are subject to corruption too.

dogmush

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3306 on: January 12, 2025, 05:38:18 AM »
And they've been building nuclear weapons, including nuclear-capable ICBMs, almost as long as I've been alive (7 decades now)...

So the point is? The second their fleet of Ding Dongs hits the water they're going to war?

Just because they're building an amphibious fleet doesn't mean that they WILL use it the second it comes on line.

Well sure.  I hope they don't use it. But increasing g aggression,  ramming ships from other countries,  and building an invasion fleet are not indicative of a country that has been given pause by our actions, as you claim.

I wouldn't want to underestimate the Chinese.  Expect the worst and all that.  But I also wouldn't underestimate how much how their dictatorial communist govt has undermined their ability and readiness.  They just had a new submarine under construction sink in the harbor last year.  Most of their weapons are copies of Russian weapons pre-Ukraine.  I figure they are like the Russians.  Decent first line forces that fall apart the deeper you go.  All designed to look good.  Actual performance may vary.  And Russian armed forces had some fighting experience prior to the Ukraine invasion as compared to the Chinese.  They won't be able to use artillery and human wave tactics to invade Taiwan. 


That is the big question. I would mention that the "most of their weap9ns are copied from the Soviets" thing is no longer true.  Or if it is technically true by sheer numbers of stockpiled gear, their frontline stuff is pretty much all domestically designed and/or copied from us.

How all of it works in real life will cost us to find out.

K Frame

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3307 on: January 12, 2025, 06:52:50 AM »
"Well sure.  I hope they don't use it. But increasing g aggression,  ramming ships from other countries,  and building an invasion fleet are not indicative of a country that has been given pause by our actions, as you claim."

The Soviets used to pull that crap as well, primarily against US ships, but also Norwegian, Swedish, and others.

They had also built an amphibious fleet that could have supported invasions (not as large, the Soviets didn't have nearly the open sea access that China has). I remember clearly such incidents leading to predictions of imminent conflict... which didn't happen.

Chinese actions definitely bear watching and strong response, but my read is, again, that their overt actions are more probing just to see how far that they can go, how big a bully they can seem to be, but they know that there's an equally capable counter to their bullying. The US response to the Ukraine invasion has, as I noted below, given them a lot to think about.

I fully believe that they did not expect a US/NATO response of the kind that was levied against Russia. No one had done diddly when Russia annexed Crimea, literally nothing other than half-hearted League of Nations kinds of protests, and I'm thinking that the Chinese expected the same international response this time.
MAGA unto others as you would have them MAGA unto you!

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MechAg94

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3308 on: January 12, 2025, 12:14:58 PM »
Well sure.  I hope they don't use it. But increasing g aggression,  ramming ships from other countries,  and building an invasion fleet are not indicative of a country that has been given pause by our actions, as you claim.

That is the big question. I would mention that the "most of their weap9ns are copied from the Soviets" thing is no longer true.  Or if it is technically true by sheer numbers of stockpiled gear, their frontline stuff is pretty much all domestically designed and/or copied from us.

How all of it works in real life will cost us to find out.
On the first, I agree with K Frame.  They are acting more like the Soviets in the 70's and 80's.  Always pushing and putting up the image of power.  IMO, the Soviets backed it up better, but that was a different time. 

On the second, most of China's main weapon systems were copied from the Russians.  Yes, they have a few that are not, but those are more or less copying everyone else.  None of that has really been tested in combat so no one knows if those weapons are any good.  They still have same outlook on things as the Russians.  It is more important for their military to look good and powerful than to actually be good and powerful. 
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dogmush

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3309 on: January 12, 2025, 04:54:39 PM »
It's a mistake to think of China as like the Soviets in the 70 and 80s. 

Just based on what they can put out for export, we know they are closer to our level than the Soviets ever got.

The Soviets couldn't mass produce the 80's version of an iPhone, for instance, and the Chinese certainly can.

K Frame

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3310 on: January 12, 2025, 05:20:59 PM »
"The Soviets couldn't mass produce the 80's version of an iPhone, for instance, and the Chinese certainly can."

By literally stealing and copying non-native designs.

The Chinese aren't some incredible engineering whiz kids on par with the best of the west.

The Soviets never mass produced an 80's version of an iPhone because US companies NEVER PAID THEM to do so.

Part of the requirement of any company wanting to manufacture their products in China is that they have to turn over their technology... not just the chips, for instance, but the engineering schemas and protocols down to the design level.

That requirement alone has boosted Chinese capabilities dramatically.
MAGA unto others as you would have them MAGA unto you!

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dogmush

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3311 on: January 12, 2025, 06:30:14 PM »
Sure.

But their capabilities HAVE been boosted dramatically.

De Selby

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3312 on: January 12, 2025, 07:13:59 PM »
"Well sure.  I hope they don't use it. But increasing g aggression,  ramming ships from other countries,  and building an invasion fleet are not indicative of a country that has been given pause by our actions, as you claim."

The Soviets used to pull that crap as well, primarily against US ships, but also Norwegian, Swedish, and others.

They had also built an amphibious fleet that could have supported invasions (not as large, the Soviets didn't have nearly the open sea access that China has). I remember clearly such incidents leading to predictions of imminent conflict... which didn't happen.

Chinese actions definitely bear watching and strong response, but my read is, again, that their overt actions are more probing just to see how far that they can go, how big a bully they can seem to be, but they know that there's an equally capable counter to their bullying. The US response to the Ukraine invasion has, as I noted below, given them a lot to think about.

I fully believe that they did not expect a US/NATO response of the kind that was levied against Russia. No one had done diddly when Russia annexed Crimea, literally nothing other than half-hearted League of Nations kinds of protests, and I'm thinking that the Chinese expected the same international response this time.


I guess you think Kissinger was a deluded peacenik.

The bone headedness of thinking “well, we didn’t kick of WWIII the last time we expanded NATO and engaged in a proxy war, so there’s no reason to believe we’ll kick it off again by expanding NATO into Russia’s industrial and agriculturally crucial neighbour!” should need no rebuttal.

Of course WWIII hasn’t been caused until it starts. But it’s a display of equal levels ignorance and hubris to believe that the USA’s hard power is so great that no country would ever take on a direct confrontation.
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MechAg94

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3313 on: January 13, 2025, 09:43:57 AM »
It's a mistake to think of China as like the Soviets in the 70 and 80s. 

Just based on what they can put out for export, we know they are closer to our level than the Soviets ever got.

The Soviets couldn't mass produce the 80's version of an iPhone, for instance, and the Chinese certainly can.
I was referring specifically to their behavior not their capabilities.  On the capabilities side, the recent trade history changes things a bit.  We never encouraged companies to export their manufacturing to Russia (at least post-WWII).   
« Last Edit: January 13, 2025, 11:45:25 AM by MechAg94 »
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dogmush

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3314 on: January 13, 2025, 10:01:09 AM »
I was referring specifically to their behavior not their capabilities.  On the capabilities side, the recent trade history changes things a bit.  We never encourage companies to export their manufacturing to Russia (at least post-WWII).   

I would argue that it's even worse to compare their behaviors.  While both countries are (nominally) Communist the Russian culture and version of Communisim in the USSR is VASTLY different than the Chinese culture and version of Communisim in the PRC.  Enough so they were antagonistic to wards each other when both existed. Russia is now allied with the PRC, but I think that's more "The enemy of my enemy" than actual friendship.  The CCP is pretty deeply Chinese culturally, and that influence shapes much of the Communism inspired expansionism we see today.

WLJ

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3315 on: January 13, 2025, 10:30:13 AM »
China has long referred to itself as the middle kingdom, the center of the world, kind of sort of their version of American exceptionalism but with a much longer and deeper history. For much of human history they were the top dog in terms of power and tech and they view the recent (to them) western dominance of the world as merely transitory and they're just resuming their rightful place in the natural order of things. They view countries like the US as really not much more than ungraceful barbarians who in time will resume their place in the tributary system.

I'm greatly over simplifying it but if You've spend any time with Chinese people that mindset is nearly always there with some hiding more than others but even then it can be found often be right under the surface in virtually every interaction you have with them.
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K Frame

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3316 on: January 13, 2025, 11:01:20 AM »
Sure.

But their capabilities HAVE been boosted dramatically.


I've never said that China's capabilities haven't been boosted dramatically over the past few decades.

The question is, does that dramatic boost in capabilities bring them to PARITY.

All indications point to... no. Their primary weapons systems still lag behind their US counterparts.

But that also doesn't mean that they don't have lethal potential.
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K Frame

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3317 on: January 13, 2025, 11:04:51 AM »
"I guess you think Kissinger was a deluded peacenik."

Aren't you still in mourning for Kamala, your goddess of woke socialism? Or are you just coming up momentarily for air and a rousing bout of "All hail the Chinese, our lords and masters!"


The most destructive war in world history kicked off because no one had the fortitude to make a strong, early stand against Adolph Hitler.

There are many other, fortunately smaller, similar examples that have stained the "peace at any price" tapestry with lots and lots of blood.

MAGA unto others as you would have them MAGA unto you!

Dogs are our link to paradise. They don’t know evil or jealousy or discontent. To sit with a dog on a hillside on a glorious afternoon is to be back in Eden, where doing nothing was not boring—it was peace. — Milan Kundera


The gift which I am sending you is called a dog, and is in fact the most precious and valuable possession of mankind
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MechAg94

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3318 on: January 13, 2025, 11:52:22 AM »
It also seems to me the Cold War was won because the US armed up in the 1980's.  Appeasement never works with dictators and totalitarian govts.  They only understand power.  Approaching them from a position of weakness gains you nothing. 
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K Frame

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3319 on: January 13, 2025, 12:08:51 PM »
It also seems to me the Cold War was won because the US armed up in the 1980's.  Appeasement never works with dictators and totalitarian govts.  They only understand power.  Approaching them from a position of weakness gains you nothing. 


DISGUSTING MAGA WARMONGER!
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MechAg94

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3320 on: January 13, 2025, 12:35:36 PM »
I find it funny that Trump does the same thing as a matter of standard negotiations.  He says something aggressive.  The media goes nuts about Trump saying crazy things.  And he almost instantly gets the other side to react and start adjusting their position when they wouldn't budge previously.  The media ignores that and keeps focusing on the original story. 
“It is much more important to kill bad bills than to pass good ones.”  ― Calvin Coolidge

Pb

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3321 on: January 14, 2025, 09:34:06 AM »
Yes, Trump is good at that.   =)

Opportunity

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3322 on: January 14, 2025, 09:44:26 AM »
It also seems to me the Cold War was won because the US armed up in the 1980's.  Appeasement never works with dictators and totalitarian govts.  They only understand power.  Approaching them from a position of weakness gains you nothing.

Very correct words. The whole world over the last few years (and especially months) is proof of this.

De Selby

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3323 on: January 14, 2025, 07:48:22 PM »
"I guess you think Kissinger was a deluded peacenik."

Aren't you still in mourning for Kamala, your goddess of woke socialism? Or are you just coming up momentarily for air and a rousing bout of "All hail the Chinese, our lords and masters!"


The most destructive war in world history kicked off because no one had the fortitude to make a strong, early stand against Adolph Hitler.

There are many other, fortunately smaller, similar examples that have stained the "peace at any price" tapestry with lots and lots of blood.

I don’t know why you’re referencing Kamala  when I’ve never backed her, and you’re the one here promoting her policy on Ukraine. You’ve been a consistent and vocal supporter of the Biden Harris (and before that Obama/Clinton) policy on this war. I personally am a Trump supporter and agree with his openness to negotiate an end to the conflict.

Comparing this to England and Germany is ridiculous. Russia is not an expansionist state, and the conflict goes to the placement of US weapons on the Russian border. Indeed from their perspective they are the ones stopping the expansion of a global power. Failing to recognise that fact is one of the causes of the war and a fundamental misjudgment that has in fact brought the entire world closer to nuclear conflict than it’s been since the Cuban missile crisis.
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dogmush

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3324 on: January 14, 2025, 08:28:28 PM »

 Russia is not an expansionist state, and the conflict goes to the placement of US weapons on the Russian border. Indeed from their perspective they are the ones stopping the expansion of a global power. Failing to recognise that fact is one of the causes of the war and a fundamental misjudgment that has in fact brought the entire world closer to nuclear conflict than it’s been since the Cuban missile crisis.

[Georgia has entered the chat]