War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....

[RocketMan]

Hopefully they will demilitarize the M1’s before handing them over.  By that I mean some of the state of the art software for target acquisition and such. Know you can’t do much with the armor or feed/aiming capability but I’m sure we have some proprietary stuff we’d prefer Russia not capture, which I’m sure they’ll try to do.

The Abrams tanks that are exported are significantly different than the ones in the US inventory.  A number of classified systems on the M1, including some electronic technology items and armor packages cannot be exported.  From what I have read, Ukraine will receive a stripped down version of the M1A2.  They may get some of the M1 Abrams from the recently disbanded USMC tank battalions.

[MechAg94]

Weren't we already sending them Bradley's? 

I saw a video about the Bradley's and the thought was the more advanced infrared sights could help spot Russian armor or infantry for other vehicles to target.  I don't know what the export M1A2 tanks would have, but it is likely better than the captured Russian tanks the Ukrainians have.

[K Frame]

It's become glaringly evident that the Leopards and Abrams will be head and shoulders above anything that the Russians are currently deploying for a couple of reasons:

1. Russian training. It's become painfully evident that even Russia's supposedly elite units aren't well trained, and many of the run of the mill units simply aren't trained. This includes their armor units.

2. Maintenance. It's become obvious just how badly Russian corruption has affected its military at all levels. This is especially true of more advanced systems such as armor, where widespread inability to maintain Russian tanks in Ukraine has been reported. Combine that with the sanctions that have cut off Russia from many critical components and the problem becomes worse.

3. Troop morale. I think this one speaks for itself. There have been quite a few verified instances of Russian troops abandoning functional equipment, much to the delight of the Ukrainians. Troops with good morale don't flee and leave serviceable equipment behind.

4. Design. The Russians have touted the T-90 and the most up to date version, the T-90M, as being in the top level of today's main battle tanks. Now that observers have been able to get a good look at the T-90 in action, it's becoming more and more evident that it's not even remotely as capable as the Russians have claimed it to be.

Which leads the discussion to the T-14 Armata. Russia has been touting its new MBT as a world beater, but it's becoming glaringly evident that the Armata has BIG problems -- design issues, reliability issues and, from a production standpoint, big issues with getting the technology needed for its component systems, much of which comes from the West.

Allegedly Russia was going to sent a unit of Armatas to Ukraine, but that's apparently been scrapped because of fears that they would become a complete embarrassment.

[MechAg94]

I have also heard people have seized Russian equipment and found commercial grade electronics from the West installed or military jets using cell phones or commercial GPS units to navigate. 

I am sure Russia could build a 1st class tank, but it sounds like there is no will or money (left over after corruption) to take it from prototype to general issue (assuming that would be reliable).  They seem to have a good number of fairly advanced missiles and artillery along with fighter jets. 

[K Frame]

I have also heard people have seized Russian equipment and found commercial grade electronics from the West installed or military jets using cell phones or commercial GPS units to navigate. 

I am sure Russia could build a 1st class tank, but it sounds like there is no will or money (left over after corruption) to take it from prototype to general issue (assuming that would be reliable).  They seem to have a good number of fairly advanced missiles and artillery along with fighter jets. 

Yep, T-90s have been found with sighting systems made in France that are leagues behind the ones deployed in NATO tanks.

Russia depended heavily on Western-sourced electronics components for its weapons systems. Those are completely shut off now, and the ones that they've been able to source from nations that are still friendly to them are vastly inferior.

One only needs to look at the plight of the Russian aircraft carrier, Adm. Kuznetzov. It's essentially a drydocked hulk that had to travel with a seagoing tug because its propulsion systems were so unreliable. It's been in drydock since 2018, work hampered by an almost endless series of "accidents," including at least one major fire, and a lack of funds because appropriated money and equpment keeps being siphoned off by Putin cronies.

Then you've got the recently lost Moskva. Russia says it was an ammunition fire, Ukraine says it hit the ship with two missiles.

According to later articles on the ship (I THINK I posted one here on the boards somewhere) the real reason the ship sank was because it was, in large part, a floating hulk manned by untrained conscripts. Allegedly a large number of her major systems were inoperative, including missile defense, firefighting, lifesaving, and others. Basic ship's equipment was missing and showing up on the black markets.

The Russian incursion into Ukraine has made one thing very clear -- that Russia isn't the military power many in the west thought it was, or feared it to be.

[RoadKingLarry]

The Russian incursion into Ukraine has made one thing very clear -- that Russia isn't the military power many in the west thought it was, or feared it to be.

Russia and it's previous USSR incarnation have been essentially paper tigers for a long time. In large part (mostly?) because of the graft and corruption as mentioned above.
In a conventional peer to peer conflict, US or NATO ally, I think Russia would get it's ass handed to them in short order. They would probably make a strong initial showing but they have no bench to fall back on as we have seen in Ukraine.  Unfortunately if that were to happen I suspect the nukes would start flying out of a psychopathic need for revenge.
I tend to think China is in pretty much the same category

[Perd Hapley]

Can anyone suggest a historical parallel to Russia's embarrassing showing in this war, now about to enter its second year? I'm not a military history buff, so I don't know.

Obviously, there are similarities to Afghanistan or Vietnam, but even in the last 2, the U.S. didn't have the same kind of widespread breakdown of morale, equipment, training, etc.

Another example that springs to mind is China's skirmish with India just recently, but they didn't keep getting humiliated over and over again, for months on end, I don't think. Also, I know the Union Army didn't look so hot for the first part of our Civil War.

[Pb]

It's become glaringly evident that the Leopards and Abrams will be head and shoulders above anything that the Russians are currently deploying for a couple of reasons:

Well, are the ukrainians going to be using our tanks competently?

[WLJ]

Also, I know the Union Army didn't look so hot for the first part of our Civil War.

To be frank neither army looked so hot at first, just the southern army looked a little less not so hot than the Union army. Once the Union Army got it's act together it was game over.

[sumpnz]

McClellan was huge part of the problem.  He was fantastic at training the troops, but a horrible battlefield tactician and was almost completely unwilling to commit troops to any battle.  Once they got Grant in command there was no real hope of a southern military victory.  Even if he lost a battle he kept on advancing whereas McClellan would retreat and kick his wounds, and then refuse to engage again until he get he had overwhelmingly superior numbers.

[WLJ]

McClellan was huge part of the problem.  He was fantastic at training the troops, but a horrible battlefield tactician and was almost completely unwilling to commit troops to any battle.  Once they got Grant in command there was no real hope of a southern military victory.  Even if he lost a battle he kept on advancing whereas McClellan would retreat and kick his wounds, and then refuse to engage again until he get he had overwhelmingly superior numbers.

Remember something somewhere that when Lee found out Grant was in charge Lee knew there was no way for the south to win at that point or something to that effect. He knew Grant, unlike McClellan, was a fighter.

[K Frame]

"Can anyone suggest a historical parallel to Russia's embarrassing showing in this war, now about to enter its second year? I'm not a military history buff, so I don't know."

Well, there's the first year of the war between Germany and Russia in World War II, but that's not entirely analogous. Russia wasn't the aggressor, and certainly wasn't perceived to be the stronger of the two forces.

Maybe Germany vs France/Britain after the end of the Phony War in 1940?

France was, at that time, considered to be the world's best military, and Germany comprehensively defeated it in a matter of weeks.

But this particular situation, in which the perceived larger, more capable military aggressor essentially crashed and burned after the initial thrust?

I can't think of anything quite like this at all until you roll back to the Persians dashing themselves to pieces against the Greeks a number of times in ancient history.


Vietnam and Afghanistan proved, in large part, the same point. The two largest, most capable militaries in the world at the time simply had no concept of how to fight against, or win against, what was essentially an asymmetrical guerilla war, where repeated massive application of force is essentially useless.

Both America and the USSR should have studied the British war against the Communist guerillas in Malay to see how to prosecute an asymmetrical war.

[K Frame]

Well, are the ukrainians going to be using our tanks competently?

Given what I'm seeing from them so far, I'd say they're going to make very good use of the armor NATO sends them.

[K Frame]

"McClellan would retreat and kick his wounds, and then refuse to engage again until he get he had overwhelmingly superior numbers."

McClellan would often refuse to engage even when he knew that he had overwhelmingly superior numbers.

Typical McClellan telegram to Lincoln.

Confederates have 1,000 men. STOP.

I need an additional 250,000 men to ensure victory STOP.

Make that 750,000 men. STOP.


Lincoln's response...

General McClellan, please stop. STOP.

Just stop. For the love of God, STOP. STOP.

[WLJ]

McClellan
Retreating STOP
There are two of them STOP

Lincoln
Grant you're up STOP

[sumpnz]

From listening to Peter Zeihan he says that the first year of the war is pretty much par for the course for Russia.  After this they’ll throw bodies at the problem, and have a roughly 50% success rate in that strategy.

[WLJ]

From listening to Peter Zeihan he says that the first year of the war is pretty much par for the course for Russia.  After this they’ll throw bodies at the problem, and have a roughly 50% success rate in that strategy.

The old hoping they run out of bullets before we run out of warm bodies strategy.
And this is assuming they don't throw Putin first.

[WLJ]

U.S. Tanks In Ukraine Already Destroyed After Being Easily Recognized By Their Rainbow Camouflage
https://babylonbee.com/news/31-us-tanks-in-ukraine-already-destroyed-after-being-easily-recognized-by-their-rainbow-camo/

"These tanks are state of the art, boasting the latest and greatest in firepower, mobility, and of course LGBTQ-affirming camouflage," said Biden's Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin. "The fact the Russians would dare fire upon our rainbow-printed tanks shows how hateful, bigoted and on the wrong side of history these Russians truly are."

[K Frame]

"After this they’ll throw bodies at the problem, and have a roughly 50% success rate in that strategy."

They've been throwing bodies at the problem for the last 6 months.

They went that route when the Ukrainians started stopping them cold. 

The really telling thing is that wounded Russians are being pulled out of hospitals and sent right back to the front line while not even remotely close to being through initial healing.

[sumpnz]

"After this they’ll throw bodies at the problem, and have a roughly 50% success rate in that strategy."

They've been throwing bodies at the problem for the last 6 months.

They went that route when the Ukrainians started stopping them cold. 

The really telling thing is that wounded Russians are being pulled out of hospitals and sent right back to the front line while not even remotely close to being through initial healing.

By our standards they’ve been throwing bodies at the problem, but by Russian standards it’s barely at the foreplay stage.  Again, according to Zeihan, the Russians have never abandoned an invasion with less than half a million dead.  They’re only at ~100k now.  Come May when the mud season ends and the Ukrainians have a lot of additional equipment fielded and soldiers trained, and the Russians have an additional 500k men to throw at the problem we’ll quickly find out which way things will go.

[MechAg94]

"Can anyone suggest a historical parallel to Russia's embarrassing showing in this war, now about to enter its second year? I'm not a military history buff, so I don't know."

Well, there's the first year of the war between Germany and Russia in World War II, but that's not entirely analogous. Russia wasn't the aggressor, and certainly wasn't perceived to be the stronger of the two forces.

Maybe Germany vs France/Britain after the end of the Phony War in 1940?

France was, at that time, considered to be the world's best military, and Germany comprehensively defeated it in a matter of weeks.

But this particular situation, in which the perceived larger, more capable military aggressor essentially crashed and burned after the initial thrust?

I can't think of anything quite like this at all until you roll back to the Persians dashing themselves to pieces against the Greeks a number of times in ancient history.


Vietnam and Afghanistan proved, in large part, the same point. The two largest, most capable militaries in the world at the time simply had no concept of how to fight against, or win against, what was essentially an asymmetrical guerilla war, where repeated massive application of force is essentially useless.

Both America and the USSR should have studied the British war against the Communist guerillas in Malay to see how to prosecute an asymmetrical war.

I was thinking of the Persians as well.  The only other group that comes to mind is maybe the Italian Army from WWII.  I am sure there are many in between, but they are largely forgotten for that reason. 

[MechAg94]

Remember something somewhere that when Lee found out Grant was in charge Lee knew there was no way for the south to win at that point or something to that effect. He knew Grant, unlike McClellan, was a fighter.

The impression I got from the little stuff I have seen is McClellan would get his army beat up and then withdraw.  Grant might take just as many casualties but bring up reinforcements and hold the ground he had.  I know there was a lot more to it, but that was one impression I got. 

[WLJ]

The impression I got from the little stuff I have seen is McClellan would get his army beat up and then withdraw.  Grant might take just as many casualties but bring up reinforcements and hold the ground he had.  I know there was a lot more to it, but that was one impression I got.

McC was always looking for that one glorious battle that would cement his reputation as the American Napoleon.
Grant on the other hand was entirely focused on how do we win and end this bloody mess as soon as possible.

[K Frame]

I'm not sure that the Russians can field 500,000 extra troops right now. Sure, they've got the people, but it's becoming painfully clear that they don't have the ability to arm them, equip them, feed them or, from what I've been hearing, transport them in a timely manner.

I'm really wondering, though, at what point a cabal of Russian generals is going to finally say enough is enough and remove Putin.

In some ways this mess is playing out a lot like some of the scenarios in Tom Clancy's Red Storm Rising.

[sumpnz]

There’s a technical term for troops that are poorly trained, poorly equipped, poorly led, and poorly fed.  Russian.