Author Topic: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....  (Read 131029 times)

RocketMan

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #2200 on: March 24, 2023, 01:36:06 PM »
I will point out, we just need to put a few destroyers/subs in the Indian Ocean near the Straits of Malacca and sink any oil tankers heading to China.  Lob a few Tomahawks at any oil/gas pipelines going into China for good measure.  Light go out within a month and famine sets in within 6 months killing half a billion Chinese.  They would cease to function as a country, let alone one able to project military force very quickly.

And if you really want to *expletive deleted*ck up China use some penetrator type weapons to hit the 3 Gorges Dam and breach it.  The major percentage of the population, and the basis for their whole economy is downstream of that dam. 

Do both and within a year China will be a pre-industrial country of maybe 100-200 million.  And all that without firing a single nuke or engaging in a land war.

All without us firing a single nuke, certainly.  I'm not so sanguine about China not resorting to nukes when their back is against the wall.
Any war with China is going to be fought over protecting Taiwan from invasion.  That war will be over quickly, though probably not within the two week time frame our main weapons stocks would last.  Following your suggestions would lead to China owning Taiwan, and them likely using nukes when things get so tough for them that they start thinking an existential threat is hanging over their head.
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RoadKingLarry

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #2201 on: March 24, 2023, 01:53:24 PM »
I suspect that much like Russia, China has a major problem with graft and corruption.
Also much like Russia, their "enlisted" work force is made up largely of low skilled conscripts. Their officer ranks are heavy with nepotism and corruption.
I classify the Russian military as a "paper tiger". China's military as a "poster board tiger". And the US military as a "double wall corrugated cardboard tiger".
All three are due to corruption, graft, hubris and incompetence.

Interesting take from Aljazeera, an obviously unbiased source...

 https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/10/29/just-how-strong-is-the-chinese-military
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RocketMan

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #2202 on: March 24, 2023, 02:19:45 PM »
I suspect that much like Russia, China has a major problem with graft and corruption.
Also much like Russia, their "enlisted" work force is made up largely of low skilled conscripts. Their officer ranks are heavy with nepotism and corruption.
I classify the Russian military as a "paper tiger". China's military as a "poster board tiger". And the US military as a "double wall corrugated cardboard tiger".
All three are due to corruption, graft, hubris and incompetence.

Interesting take from Aljazeera, an obviously unbiased source...

 https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/10/29/just-how-strong-is-the-chinese-military

I have a vague recollection of a time that we underestimated the military abilities of another Asian foe.  If I remember correctly, that little dust-up took almost five years and many tens of thousands of casualties to resolve.
If there really was intelligent life on other planets, we'd be sending them foreign aid.

Conservatives see George Orwell's "1984" as a cautionary tale.  Progressives view it as a "how to" manual.

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Liberals believe one should never let reason, logic and facts get in the way of a good emotional argument.

Ben

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #2203 on: March 24, 2023, 03:03:41 PM »
Before their recent adventure, Russia had over 11,000 tanks compared to the US's 8,000.  Would you say that they had tank superiority?

Sure, one can say that comparing raw numbers is simplistic, but so is comparing vessels and tanks, or Russians and Chinese. We've certainly now seen that Russia is a paper tiger, at least excluding nukes, which kinda level everyone up. I don't think we know about China, them not being in any major conflicts where we could get data.

I have no expertise in the area, so if someone has more sources and analyses to read, I'm eager to learn about any data with contrary views. I'd sincerely like to learn more. What I've read so far suggests that China has newer and more modern vessels, and that we are falling behind with no real plans for attrition. I've also read that Aircraft carriers may not be, in the future, the force multipliers we see them as now, so us being superior there might not count for what we think it does.

On the other hand, China seems to prioritize "homeland security" as far as their fleet operations (hence all the corvettes, I guess). The US has experience all over all the oceans of the world.

I suppose much comes down to what kind of war it would be. It might (and I guess it has already started) be predominately non-kinetic Fifth Generation warfare, though it sure seems like that's an area where the CCP has us beat. Or it might be nukes and then everybody loses.

At any rate, as I said, I'm only commenting based on articles I have read. THis is an area where I'd like to do a lot more reading.
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dogmush

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #2204 on: March 24, 2023, 03:19:46 PM »
More importantly than carriers the PLAN submarine force is a tiny few, noisy nuke boats and a bunch of brown water diesel boats.  Their ASW assets and tech are 80s-90@ level soviet gear, with some upgrades.

They can defend their coast, but can not project force or hold any blue water areas. Even the relatively narrow Tiawan straight we could shut down without too much trouble just with subs, and a carrier group 300 miles the other side of tiawan.

It's also worth noting that despite the US Navy's  manning and training issues in INDOPACOM, they still have more time being there and doing that than any other navy in the world  The PLAN can just barely make it to exercises off the west coast of India.

We would lose some ships, to be sure, especially since we have to let them start the fun, but once the shooting started any PLAN vessel more than land based missle coverage from the shore would die a quick and fiery death.

HankB

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #2205 on: March 24, 2023, 03:53:29 PM »
US Navy has made a few serious & expen$ive blunders in recent years . . . e.g., Littoral Combat Ships and the Zumwalt class. We'll see what happens with the proposed DDG(X) ships.

I've also read that war stocks of munitions are low, and that ships routinely deploy without full ammo load outs. And this is before we began supplying Ukraine.
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MillCreek

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #2206 on: March 24, 2023, 04:20:35 PM »
I've also read that war stocks of munitions are low, and that ships routinely deploy without full ammo load outs. And this is before we began supplying Ukraine.

On you way in or out of Puget Sound, and the Naval Base Kitsap and Naval Base Everett stations is Naval Magazine Indian Island. I have heard sailors from the Burke class destroyers homeported in Everett that they stop at the Magazine and that the missiles taken from a ship coming into port, are loaded onto the destroyers going out from port on deployment who stop at the Magazine.  I don't know if this is intentional or not, or if it shows munition shortages.
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RocketMan

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #2207 on: March 24, 2023, 04:27:58 PM »
If you read into the matter, you will find the first place the Puzzle Palace on the Potomac looks to cut budgets is almost always for munitions replenishment.  This frees up funds for high dollar pet projects that put money into congresscritter and former flag-officers-turned-lobbyists pockets.
This has been going on for decades.
If there really was intelligent life on other planets, we'd be sending them foreign aid.

Conservatives see George Orwell's "1984" as a cautionary tale.  Progressives view it as a "how to" manual.

My wife often says to me, "You are evil and must be destroyed." She may be right.

Liberals believe one should never let reason, logic and facts get in the way of a good emotional argument.

MechAg94

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #2208 on: March 24, 2023, 10:21:58 PM »
The biggest concern I had was how well the Chinese anti-ship missiles work and how good our anti-missile systems work.  I figure we would win an all out naval engagement, but we would take damage doing it. 
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HankB

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #2209 on: March 25, 2023, 12:01:17 AM »
I'd be a bit more worried about the RoE's our Navy would be saddled with by POTUS . . . after all, it's beginning to look like the Chicoms may have paid him & his family more than the salary he gets as POTUS . . .
Trump won in 2016. Democrats haven't been so offended since Republicans came along and freed their slaves.
Sometimes I wonder if the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on, or by imbeciles who really mean it. - Mark Twain
Government is a broker in pillage, and every election is a sort of advance auction in stolen goods. - H.L. Mencken
Patriotism is supporting your country all the time, and your government when it deserves it. - Mark Twain

sumpnz

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #2210 on: March 25, 2023, 12:45:55 AM »
I'd be a bit more worried about the RoE's our Navy would be saddled with by POTUS . . . after all, it's beginning to look like the Chicoms may have paid him & his family more than the salary he gets as POTUS . . .

The only wars we’ve lost were because the politicians wouldn’t let us win.

If we’re going to fight a war it shouldn’t be with the slightest reluctance.  The idea should be to so overwhelm the enemy that they sue for peace in short order.  And while the civilian population may not necessarily love the war, hitting targets that make their life hell has to be part of it or they won’t actively oppose their own government.  Avoiding directly killing civilians is fine.  But wrecking everything that makes an industrialized society possible is another matter.

Afterwards, like in WWII, we can help them rebuild.

If we’re not willing to engage in “total war” we might as well start learning Mandarin and Chinese etiquette.

Ironically if we made it obvious we had no compunction reducing China to a pre-industrial nation with 10-50% of their current population we’d be unlikely to have to actually do so.

Ben

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #2211 on: March 25, 2023, 07:49:24 AM »
If we’re going to fight a war it shouldn’t be with the slightest reluctance.  The idea should be to so overwhelm the enemy that they sue for peace in short order.  And while the civilian population may not necessarily love the war, hitting targets that make their life hell has to be part of it or they won’t actively oppose their own government.  Avoiding directly killing civilians is fine.  But wrecking everything that makes an industrialized society possible is another matter.

Carl von Clausewitz covers this in "On War". I recall that he built his philosophy on Sun Tzu or another ancient tactician.  Sort of "shock and awe", but done better than Bush did it. As you said, don't target civilians, but don't consider them. You hit your enemy quickly, savagely, and horrifically, to the point that they are in fact in shock and can think of nothing else to do but surrender. With the idea being that you have much less loss of life and physical assets on both sides in the long run.

It would be interesting to view an alternate reality where we dropped the bombs on Japan in year one, especially given their complete faith in their god emperor, which probably had them fighting much longer than say, the krauts. Though I wonder how this would work on certain Middle Eastern cultures.
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HankB

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #2212 on: March 25, 2023, 11:53:08 AM »
The only wars we’ve lost were because the politicians wouldn’t let us win.

If we’re going to fight a war it shouldn’t be with the slightest reluctance.  The idea should be to so overwhelm the enemy that they sue for peace in short order.   . . .
I remember reading that former President Eisenhower had a meeting with LBJ in which he offered the new POTUS a piece of advice on Vietnam: unless you're willing to fight a war all-out and do whatever it takes to win - don't get involved at all.

Johnson didn't listen.
Trump won in 2016. Democrats haven't been so offended since Republicans came along and freed their slaves.
Sometimes I wonder if the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on, or by imbeciles who really mean it. - Mark Twain
Government is a broker in pillage, and every election is a sort of advance auction in stolen goods. - H.L. Mencken
Patriotism is supporting your country all the time, and your government when it deserves it. - Mark Twain

Boomhauer

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #2213 on: March 25, 2023, 12:11:43 PM »
When it comes to the American Civil War there is a lot of criticism of the Union’s tactics especially with Sherman of cutting deep into the Southern cities and resource areas and terrorizing the civilians but he didn’t do it for fun he did it to cut the heart out of the Confederacy and bring the war to a halt as quickly as possible. It wasn’t nice and it wasn’t polite but it got the job done. It’s also the same reason the RAF firebombed cities, the USAAF firebombed Japanese cities, and finally the nuking of Hiroshima and Nagasaki instead of “demonstration” or not using it at all (the nukings were a mercy to what was the alternative)
 





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K Frame

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #2214 on: March 25, 2023, 12:24:03 PM »
Same with Sheridan's Shenandoah Valley Campaign.

The lesson here is, if you're not able to fight a war, a REAL war, it's best not to start one at all.

The Confederacy didn't understand that.

The Russians understood that when Napoleon invaded, but that lesson and its implications were lost.
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HankB

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #2215 on: March 25, 2023, 01:10:46 PM »
. . . and finally the nuking of Hiroshima and Nagasaki instead of “demonstration” or not using it at all (the nukings were a mercy to what was the alternative)
We DID a demonstration - it was called Hiroshima. IT WASN'T ENOUGH. A "demonstration" of dropping a bomb on some island and roasting a few coconuts wouldn't have been more convincing than wiping out a city.

The Japs didn't surrender until the Soviets declared war AND we dropped a second bomb. Then - and ONLY then - did the Japs surrender. Even so, there was nearly a coup against Hirohito by elements of the Jap military who didn't want to give up. In fact, The History Channel made a docudrama about just how close to success this coup came in The Last Mission. https://thetvdb.com/series/history-channel-documentaries/episodes/8602577
Trump won in 2016. Democrats haven't been so offended since Republicans came along and freed their slaves.
Sometimes I wonder if the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on, or by imbeciles who really mean it. - Mark Twain
Government is a broker in pillage, and every election is a sort of advance auction in stolen goods. - H.L. Mencken
Patriotism is supporting your country all the time, and your government when it deserves it. - Mark Twain

Pb

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #2216 on: March 27, 2023, 10:42:29 AM »
The last time we fought China (Korea) is was pretty bad.  Now they have nukes.  I can't imagine this would be better.

MechAg94

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #2217 on: March 27, 2023, 11:27:59 AM »
The last time we fought China (Korea) is was pretty bad.  Now they have nukes.  I can't imagine this would be better.
That would be the problem with doing things like destroying dams in mainland China.  I figure any conflict would at least start with a battle over Taiwan or something about disputed territorial waters similar to Libya a few decades ago. 
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sumpnz

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #2218 on: March 27, 2023, 11:53:01 AM »
That would be the problem with doing things like destroying dams in mainland China.  I figure any conflict would at least start with a battle over Taiwan or something about disputed territorial waters similar to Libya a few decades ago. 

If we were to breach the 3 gorges dam it would probably be with stand-off range weapons with warheads designed to penetrate large amounts of reinforced concrete.  If Tomahawks have such a warhead they’d be a possibility, as would the AGM-154C.  Or whatever weapon system is more appropriate if those aren’t up to the task. 

cordex

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #2219 on: March 27, 2023, 12:24:48 PM »
I don't think a breach of 3 Gorges Dam would be as easy to do as has been suggested.  That's an awful lot of concrete for a little TLAM to punch through, and a 700 mile standoff considerably limits your options.  The only non-nuclear US weapon I'm aware of that would have a chance is a Massive Ordinance Penetrator.

Unless you trust a flight of B-2s equipped with MOPs to breach airspace.

HankB

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #2220 on: March 27, 2023, 01:22:47 PM »
I don't think a breach of 3 Gorges Dam would be as easy to do as has been suggested.  That's an awful lot of concrete for a little TLAM to punch through, and a 700 mile standoff considerably limits your options.  The only non-nuclear US weapon I'm aware of that would have a chance is a Massive Ordinance Penetrator.

Unless you trust a flight of B-2s equipped with MOPs to breach airspace.
Time to dust off some old plans?  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aHGgXi4Kwqw
Trump won in 2016. Democrats haven't been so offended since Republicans came along and freed their slaves.
Sometimes I wonder if the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on, or by imbeciles who really mean it. - Mark Twain
Government is a broker in pillage, and every election is a sort of advance auction in stolen goods. - H.L. Mencken
Patriotism is supporting your country all the time, and your government when it deserves it. - Mark Twain

MechAg94

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #2221 on: March 27, 2023, 02:09:26 PM »
If we were to breach the 3 gorges dam it would probably be with stand-off range weapons with warheads designed to penetrate large amounts of reinforced concrete.  If Tomahawks have such a warhead they’d be a possibility, as would the AGM-154C.  Or whatever weapon system is more appropriate if those aren’t up to the task.
Whether it works or not, I just think if it got to the point that we were going after Chinese infrastructure, then China would probably have no issue using their own nuclear weapons. 
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sumpnz

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #2222 on: March 27, 2023, 02:16:23 PM »
Whether it works or not, I just think if it got to the point that we were going after Chinese infrastructure, then China would probably have no issue using their own nuclear weapons. 

While we could absolutely defeat the Chinese, if for no other reason that the vulnerability of their energy supply chains, they can definitely do plenty of damage before they fully collapse.

JTHunter

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #2223 on: March 27, 2023, 03:27:22 PM »
Time to dust off some old plans?  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aHGgXi4Kwqw

Thanks for posting this historical reminder.  IIRC, there was a Hollywood movie made about this mission as well but I don't remember the title.
If the U.S. already has a "hypersonic" cruise-type missile, would it have enough kinetic energy to fly into the downstream face of the dam and penetrate the dam if it had a nose of tungsten carbide?
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RocketMan

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #2224 on: March 27, 2023, 04:11:58 PM »
^^^  The movie was called "Dambusters" if I remember correctly.
If there really was intelligent life on other planets, we'd be sending them foreign aid.

Conservatives see George Orwell's "1984" as a cautionary tale.  Progressives view it as a "how to" manual.

My wife often says to me, "You are evil and must be destroyed." She may be right.

Liberals believe one should never let reason, logic and facts get in the way of a good emotional argument.