Author Topic: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....  (Read 186464 times)

Opportunity

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3100 on: March 25, 2024, 05:09:23 AM »
Personally (but this is just my opinion) I very much doubt that it was ISIS.
There is no point in real religious fanatics trying to escape during a terrorist attack; on the contrary, they will be ready to die on the spot, becoming martyrs.
But the terrorist attack could well have been carried out “under the banner of ISIS.” In any case, ISIS is ready to take responsibility for any high-profile terrorist attack, because ISIS is now in decline and needs any publicity it can get.
I think we are unlikely to ever find out the real masterminds of this terrorist attack. In any case, this is one of the most senseless terrorist attacks in recent times...

WLJ

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3101 on: March 25, 2024, 07:51:19 AM »
Assuming they have the right guys then I’m trying to work up an outrage but I just can’t manage it.


Yep
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Ben

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3102 on: March 25, 2024, 08:06:20 AM »
Personally (but this is just my opinion) I very much doubt that it was ISIS.
There is no point in real religious fanatics trying to escape during a terrorist attack; on the contrary, they will be ready to die on the spot, becoming martyrs.
But the terrorist attack could well have been carried out “under the banner of ISIS.” In any case, ISIS is ready to take responsibility for any high-profile terrorist attack, because ISIS is now in decline and needs any publicity it can get.
I think we are unlikely to ever find out the real masterminds of this terrorist attack. In any case, this is one of the most senseless terrorist attacks in recent times...

I think that's a really interesting response from you as a Russian citizen vs what we're seeing from the Russian government. Or I should say, what the US and Western media are reporting out of Russia, to include the suspects currently being interrogated. Is yours a common view among Russian citizens regarding the attack?
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cordex

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3103 on: March 25, 2024, 08:54:23 AM »
In any case, this is one of the most senseless terrorist attacks in recent times...
With all respect and without trying to minimize in any regard that this was absolutely a horrific terrorist attack against innocent targets, I'm not sure what sets it apart from other terrorist attacks on innocent noncombatants in terms of senselessness.

Opportunity

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3104 on: March 25, 2024, 10:21:44 AM »
I think that's a really interesting response from you as a Russian citizen vs what we're seeing from the Russian government. Or I should say, what the US and Western media are reporting out of Russia, to include the suspects currently being interrogated. Is yours a common view among Russian citizens regarding the attack?

I have not yet heard categorical statements from the Russian government regarding those who ordered the terrorist attack, except that Putin said that the terrorists “were given a window to escape to Ukraine.” But the "window" and the customer of the crime - can be two different things.
In any case, the Russian special services clearly deliberately delayed the capture of the terrorists until the last moment and allowed them to escape to the Russian border with Ukraine.
As for the majority opinion, I cannot answer for everyone, but absolutely all my close colleagues and acquaintances believe that this is definitely not ISIS.

WLJ

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3105 on: March 25, 2024, 10:45:53 AM »
As for the majority opinion, I cannot answer for everyone, but absolutely all my close colleagues and acquaintances believe that this is definitely not ISIS.

What are they basing that on considering pretty much everyone's intel is saying it was ISIS, ISIS says it was ISIS, ISIS has a beef with Russia (several actually), and this fits ISIS SOP?

SOP (Standard Operating Procedure)
« Last Edit: March 25, 2024, 11:01:14 AM by WLJ »
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MechAg94

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3106 on: March 25, 2024, 12:23:59 PM »
The Rising Incompetence of the Russian System || Peter Zeihan
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uJZcIrBCrqs
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dogmush

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3107 on: March 25, 2024, 02:59:49 PM »
What are they basing that on considering pretty much everyone's intel is saying it was ISIS, ISIS says it was ISIS, ISIS has a beef with Russia (several actually), and this fits ISIS SOP?

SOP (Standard Operating Procedure)

It's pretty far afield for ISIS-K.  They aren't known for their force projection capabilities.  Hell all the ISIS variants have been pretty much tied into the mid-east by the GWOT, but ISIS-K specifically is generally geographically pretty limited.

Not saying they couldn't have done it, or done it by themselves, but it's outside their generally shown operational capabilities.

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3108 on: March 26, 2024, 03:35:51 PM »
It's pretty far afield for ISIS-K.  They aren't known for their force projection capabilities.  Hell all the ISIS variants have been pretty much tied into the mid-east by the GWOT, but ISIS-K specifically is generally geographically pretty limited.

Not saying they couldn't have done it, or done it by themselves, but it's outside their generally shown operational capabilities.

Promise 4 guys money if they live and 70 virgins if they don't. Hand them 4 AKs, ammo, some petrol bombs, and tell them to go shoot up a concert hall. If they don't make it there's plenty more where they came from.
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WLJ

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3109 on: March 26, 2024, 03:38:04 PM »
Death toll could go up, way up. They're finding bodies in the burnt out ruble. Some saying it could as high as 361

Quote
The death toll could yet increase dramatically with Russian news outlets reporting the charred remains of dozens more people may remain trapped under the rubble. Baza suggested the real toll could be as high as 361.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13239199/putin-moscow-terror-russia-intelligence-services-isis-attack.html
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dogmush

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3110 on: March 26, 2024, 04:21:44 PM »
Promise 4 guys money if they live and 70 virgins if they don't. Hand them 4 AKs, ammo, some petrol bombs, and tell them to go shoot up a concert hall. If they don't make it there's plenty more where they came from.

If the concert hall is in Kabul, sure.  Operationally, there's a little more to it to get it done in Moscow.

Sure, ISIS (main branch) has managed to get some ops done in mainland Europe, mostly in France and Belgium (lots of easy to radicalize Muslims there) but they've been hit pretty hard by more recent uptick of violence in the mid-east proper and have been having problems even spinning up the lone wolves for 3 or 4 years now.  ISIS-K, which I've seen mentioned hasn't ever struck outside their home geography.

Could they have done it alone?  Sure, with some luck.  But it's not a conspiracy theory to point out that A coordinated attack in Moscow, with an exfiltration plan and coordination with another country to receive them is outside the operational capabilities ISIS has previously shown, and not really consistent with their previous attack's TTPs (use local migrants that have been radicalized and martyr them).

It bears noting that ISIS has released some video from inside the attack that wasn't publically available to bolster their claim of responsability.  That would imply either live streaming back to ISIS PAO, or someone living long enough to email a video file, something that while not technically difficult, is new for ISIS, and dangerous.

I guess the real question is not was ISIS involved, but were they aided.  If they were not aided in this attack what caused the shift in operational capabilities, and can they carry that shift to other targets.  If they were aided, who did it, and do we care enough to prevent that from happening again?

MechAg94

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3111 on: March 26, 2024, 04:42:56 PM »
I did see a comment the other day that one of the attackers said someone on Telegram offered them money.  Money showed up and they were told where to pick up the weapons.  Probably just BS but a similar scenario wouldn't surprise me.
« Last Edit: March 29, 2024, 11:59:47 AM by MechAg94 »
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WLJ

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3112 on: March 29, 2024, 08:39:21 AM »
Came across this this morning and just found it interesting
KSG in the hands of a Russian soldier in Ukraine. Note: Someone needs to teach him trigger discipline.
Another picture further down of more in the hands of Ukrainian soldiers. Before you ask about the stop sign in the 2nd picture I googled it and apparently according to what I found that style is mandated by the EU and I guess it's carried over to Ukraine.

https://www.thektog.org/threads/ksg-in-ukraine-russia.277449/

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WLJ

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3113 on: April 01, 2024, 12:25:02 PM »
9 reportedly arrested, "detained", in Tajikistan for suspected connection to the concert hall attack

Quote
“Nine residents of the Vakhdat district were detained for contact with the persons who committed the terrorist attack at Crocus City Hall on March 22,” the RIA Novosti news agency reported on Friday, citing information from an unnamed source in Tajikistan’s special services, who said that Russian security forces were also involved in the operation to detain the suspects.
Quote
Those detained are also suspected of having connections with ISIL (ISIS), according to RIA Novosti.

Plus more reportedly charged in Russia

Quote
This came as a court in Moscow charged another suspect in the deadly concert hall attack – Lutfulloi Nazrimad – and ruled that should be held in custody until at least May 22, pending investigation and trial.
Quote
Russian officials previously said that 11 suspects had been arrested in the country, including four who allegedly carried out the attack.

Those four, identified as Tajik nationals, appeared in a Moscow court on Sunday on terrorism charges and showed signs of severe beatings. One appeared to be barely conscious during the hearing.

Nine detained in Tajikistan in relation to Moscow concert hall attack
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/3/29/nine-detained-in-tajikistan-in-relation-to-moscow-concert-hall-attack
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RocketMan

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3114 on: April 01, 2024, 01:55:38 PM »
I wonder how many of the arrestees were actually connected to the bombing, and how many might have just fallen afoul of the, "Round up the usual suspects", routine.  Does the ex-SovUnion do that sort of thing?
Then again, maybe I've just watched "Casablanca" too many times.
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MechAg94

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3115 on: April 01, 2024, 05:33:32 PM »
I wonder how many of the arrestees were actually connected to the bombing, and how many might have just fallen afoul of the, "Round up the usual suspects", routine.  Does the ex-SovUnion do that sort of thing?
Then again, maybe I've just watched "Casablanca" too many times.
Everybody does that sort of thing. 
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dogmush

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3116 on: April 01, 2024, 07:30:39 PM »
I wonder how many of the arrestees were actually connected to the bombing, and how many might have just fallen afoul of the, "Round up the usual suspects", routine.  Does the ex-SovUnion do that sort of thing?
Then again, maybe I've just watched "Casablanca" too many times.

Well Russia is an oppressive government that routinely violates human rights.  I suspect they have used this as an opportunity to round up anyone that was even near the building whose politics they don't like.  Leaders of groups that are critical of the government will be arrested for their statements, even if they were never even in the same city as the attackers. Also this is an opportunity to snatch up and jail any members of the press that are sympathetic to the group.

You know, the normal stuff oppressive dystopian governments do.

WLJ

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3117 on: April 02, 2024, 10:44:15 AM »
Well Russia is an oppressive government that routinely violates human rights.  I suspect they have used this as an opportunity to round up anyone that was even near the building whose politics they don't like.  Leaders of groups that are critical of the government will be arrested for their statements, even if they were never even in the same city as the attackers. Also this is an opportunity to snatch up and jail any members of the press that are sympathetic to the group.

You know, the normal stuff oppressive dystopian governments do.

*cough* J6 *cough*
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Ben

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3118 on: April 04, 2024, 12:44:26 PM »
We probably need more sources and a confirmed translation. Otherwise, fast-tracking Ukrainian membership in NATO right this second kinda makes me want to order some potassium iodide tablets.

https://twitchy.com/rickrobinson/2024/04/04/ukraine-joining-nato-n2394750
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Jim147

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3119 on: April 05, 2024, 01:46:14 PM »
https://twitter.com/FunkerActual/status/1775928114805080430

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Angel Eyes

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3120 on: April 05, 2024, 02:11:34 PM »
https://twitter.com/FunkerActual/status/1775928114805080430

Know who gets to be the one with the hammer hitting them on the nose to check for duds.

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Ben

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3121 on: April 20, 2024, 04:06:21 PM »
I 100% agree with Rand Paul here. Get those *expletive deleted*ing Ukrainian flags out of that building. I'm sick of seeing respect for, and everyone's flag but ours flying in America.

https://twitchy.com/dougp/2024/04/20/sen-rand-paul-blasts-priorities-of-flag-wavers-on-the-house-floor-and-they-were-not-us-flags-n2395334
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Ben

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3122 on: April 21, 2024, 10:41:52 AM »
Rather than list it all myself, here's a link to where the Uki aid money is going:

https://twitchy.com/samj/2024/04/21/oilfield-rando-ukraine-spending-bill-n2395356

I notice a half BILLION dollars are going towards assisting illegal immigrants to enter the country. Considering that most of the "no" votes to this bill were based on only voting "yes" if there was money for border enforcement, that's a nice slap in the face.

Lots of other maddening stuff too, including pretty much guaranteed loan forgiveness for the money going directly to Ukraine. Which I guess was expected regardless. Nothing called a "loan" going there will ever be paid back.
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WLJ

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3123 on: April 22, 2024, 08:31:20 AM »
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Ron

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3124 on: May 04, 2024, 08:13:09 AM »
The war of attrition seems to have dropped out of the headlines.

Russia's inability to maintain a long sustained operation appears to have been oversold to us.

 
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