War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....

[WLJ]

This is intresting
Reportedly someone has been cutting comm cables in the Baltic and this just popped up on X

Remember to take with a internet/X size grain of salt.

WarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧
@WarMonitor3
3 Danish navy ships are converging on the Chinese vessel suspect of cutting communication cables right now!

https://x.com/WarMonitor3/status/1858880510275002504

[Ben]

This is intresting
Reportedly someone has been cutting comm cables in the Baltic and this just popped up on X

Remember to take with a internet/X size grain of salt.
https://x.com/WarMonitor3/status/1858880510275002504

S2 Underground has an interesting brief on this today:

https://youtu.be/HNPhukcleKM

Firstly, there is the Occom's Razor of accidental anchor dragging. However, these cables are supposedly placed outside areas where most large ships would normally anchor. Also, it is unconfirmed, but reported that the cable owners claim the two cables were cut within meters of each other but a day apart. That would certainly rule out "accident" if true. Again, this is unconfirmed.

S2U suggests current top potential culprits if it's not an accident: China, Russia, United States. Also potentially China working with Russia. Interestingly, severing enemy comms is supposed to be a primary initial tactic for the Russian military pre-engagement if they're gearing up for war.

[WLJ]

Car go BOOM!

Now whether or not what they say is happening in the video is what actually happened is an open question.

https://x.com/Tendar/status/1858796910976336202

[K Frame]

Apparently the US has shut down the embassy in Kiev as there are claims of credible information of an air strike targeting it.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/20/us-closes-embassy-in-kyiv-warning-of-potential-air-attack.html

Gee, I wonder who would do that?

Not Trump's erstwhile pal Mr. Putin! They butt buddies according to everyone on the left ever...

And yes, still seeing the occasional claim of "Trump's Russian collusion!" on Facebook.

They still just can't accept that Robert Muller, who was going to save democracy from Trump/Putin, was in fact a Putin plant...

[WLJ]

This is intresting
Reportedly someone has been cutting comm cables in the Baltic and this just popped up on X

Remember to take with a internet/X size grain of salt.
https://x.com/WarMonitor3/status/1858880510275002504

More from that same source.
The fact I'm not seeing this being reported anywhere else could mean either it's fake news or they're trying to keep it quiet. 

Visegrád 24
@visegrad24
BREAKING:

The Chinese vessel Yi Peng 3 has been chased, intercepted, and boarded by Danish Navy vessel Y311 Søløven after the Chinese vessel destroyed 2 undersea telecom cables linking Finland-Germany and Sweden-Lithuania.

The vessel sailed from Russia & the captain is Russian

https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1859132263746744367

[WLJ]

But how about a little humor for a change of pace

Uh-Oh: Biden Authorizes Ukraine To Use Holy Hand Grenade Against Russia
https://babylonbee.com/news/uh-oh-biden-authorizes-ukraine-to-use-holy-hand-grenade-against-russia

[Ben]

The fact I'm not seeing this being reported anywhere else could mean either it's fake news or they're trying to keep it quiet. 
https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1859132263746744367

It's actually being reported all over the place. Just not much in the MSM. Much of it might be that the effect is mostly contained to Eurasia, so the US MSM isn't prioritizing it, though they should.

[WLJ]

It's actually being reported all over the place. Just not much in the MSM. Much of it might be that the effect is mostly contained to Eurasia, so the US MSM isn't prioritizing it, though they should.

I must not be going to the right places then.

[Ben]

Actually the MSM is picking it up now too. 

https://duckduckgo.com/?q=baltic+cables+cut&atb=v314-1&ia=web

[Ben]

Mike Baker has a pretty consolidated review in today's Daily Brief:

https://youtu.be/G7K7RuecG7c

It's looking like multiple government sources from different countries are now saying sabotage. Most are pointing at Russia (which could still mean that US Intel did something). The weird part to me is the cutting of cables right next to each other at different times. I know nothing about subsea cable infrastructure, but I'm assuming there are sensors to narrow down where line breaks are. Why cut a second one in the same location later with a risk of someone being on-site to investigate the first one?

Apparently Russia has been ramping up oceanic comms infrastructure sabotage teams for months, using DSRVs and UAVs. Or at least that's what US intel agencies are reporting.

Germany is ramping up strategic response protocols for war in Europe. Sweden is distributing checklists of war preparations to citizens. It seems the Euros are much more worried about things right now than we are.

[Cliffh]

Germany is ramping up strategic response protocols for war in Europe. Sweden is distributing checklists of war preparations to citizens. It seems the Euros are much more worried about things right now than we are.

Things are more likely to go south in Europe first, so they don't want to take their sweet time getting ready.  That would give us some time to do some last minute, OMG, S really has HTF!  preps. 

Given who is/isn't in charge here right now, they probably don't even see this as a probable problem.

[WLJ]

Is Putin crazy enough to start lobbing nukes at Ukraine?
Which way is the wind blowing there right now?

I for one am hoping if he is someone, maybe a general, is going to pop him first.

[dogmush]

If he does, do you think any western nation with nukes has the balls and/or political will to do something about it?  Maybe more UN sanctions?

[WLJ]

If he does, do you think any western nation with nukes has the balls and/or political will to do something about it?  Maybe more UN sanctions?

Cut off their McDonald's!
Wait they already did that.

Okay, serious mode on

What more could they do that they're not already doing short of war?

[HankB]

If he does, do you think any western nation with nukes has the balls and/or political will to do something about it?  Maybe more UN sanctions?

I don't see any NATO nation responding with nukes unless Putin pops a nuke IN a NATO nation.

Ukraine isn't part of NATO.

Ukraine is probably contemplating dirty bombs - there's plenty of really "hot" material available at Chernobyl. And they probably have pilots who'd volunteer to dust Moscow with it if Putin nuked Ukraine. (No doubt it would be a one-way flight.)

[MechAg94]

Is Putin crazy enough to start lobbing nukes at Ukraine?
Which way is the wind blowing there right now?

I for one am hoping if he is someone, maybe a general, is going to pop him first.

What would be worse: Russia using a nuke or Russia attempting to use a nuke that doesn't work? 

[WLJ]

What would be worse: Russia using a nuke or Russia attempting to use a nuke that doesn't work?

Be a nasty dirty bomb type problem but they got a few thousand more where that one came from, keep firing until one works. Consider the contamination from the ones that didn't a bonus.

[dogmush]

I'm seeing reports this morning (unconfirmed, or at least not high confidence yet) that Russia launched an Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile or Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (no one's sure exactly which yet) armed with conventional MIRVS into Ukraine last night.

Video: https://x.com/KoskovicsZ/status/1859582573757804948

Different angle: https://x.com/MyLordBebo/status/1859535860946878862

This would have set off every early warning system in the world, and certainly would have got the US DOD and NATO wound up.  Unless they called us first we would have assumed that missile was a nike.  Very early on (like in a minute or two) we would have known somewhere in Ukraine was the target, but the use of this particular weapon is a pretty damn clear message.

*expletive deleted*it be getting spicy.

[cordex]

That looks like six clusters of at least six separate warheads.  I'm not aware of any Russian missile capable of carrying a 36 warhead payload, but maybe the use of conventional warheads changes the game?  There are plenty that could deliver a single cluster of that barrage, so maybe they just launched six missiles with six MIRVs each.

I wonder how accurate their MIRVs are.  If they were designed to be accurate enough with nukes, would they still be accurate enough to be useful with conventional warheads?

I didn't see major surface explosions, so maybe these were primarily penetrators?

[dogmush]

Yeah, I don't know.  As I mentioned Open Source reporting is still kinda all over the place, and the folks that know for sure don't seem to be making statements.

I did see a couple folks hypothesize that since conventional warheads don't really exist for those reentry vehicles they may have just put in the testing weights that simulate warheads and let them be kinetic weapons.  It would definitely send the same message, and explain the lack of secondaries. I don't know off the top of my head the velocities of reentry vehicles and if that makes since with the observed results.

I'm seeing the story has been picked up by legacy media, but people are still arguing over what it was.  Kiev says ICBM and "Western officials" say IRBM.  Either way our launch notification system would have tracked it.  I suspect we know exactly what was used, and what it's capabilities are.  Waiting on Ol' John Kirby to give us the official spin.

[Ben]

Waiting on Ol' John Kirby to give us the official spin.

So we're going to blame it on SpaceX.

[WLJ]

I wonder how accurate their MIRVs are.  If they were designed to be accurate enough with nukes, would they still be accurate enough to be useful with conventional warheads?

Accurate enough for nukes but with conventional warheads not so much. But IMHO this was more about sending a message than causing actual damage

[WLJ]

So we're going to blame it on SpaceX.

Orange rocket bad. Oh wait, that's SLS.

[dogmush]

Another possibility:

Putin DID escalate to using Nukes, and Russia thought that missile had live warheads on it till it landed.  Now they are simultaneously looking for the General that sold the warheads and trying to figure out how to spin this as a show of force.

 

[K Frame]

Another possibility:

Putin DID escalate to using Nukes, and Russia thought that missile had live warheads on it till it landed.  Now they are simultaneously looking for the General that sold the warheads and trying to figure out how to spin this as a show of force.

 

Russian corruption 101!