Author Topic: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....  (Read 302489 times)

dogmush

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3500 on: March 06, 2025, 05:16:15 PM »
Say what you will about their manuver force and logistics, the Russians are *very* good at information warfare.  And this is a topic where Bogie's hypothesis is correct: Ukrainians and Russians are both acting like Soviets.

WLJ

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3501 on: March 06, 2025, 08:13:24 PM »
“Liberals claim to want to give a hearing to other views, but then are shocked and offended to discover that there are other views.”
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Perd Hapley

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3502 on: March 07, 2025, 08:53:27 AM »
I'm not saying the Russians are bad at being expansionist, but let's just say there's more than a few hectares between them and the North Sea. And are they going to be renaming the Bay of Biscay the Bay of Russian Europe any time soon? Apparently not. I guess it's the terrifying prospect of the Belgian military keeping them in their place.

I just don't think the Russians have what it takes to put "from sea to shining sea" in their patriotic songbook. That's for real countries.  :P
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Angel Eyes

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3503 on: March 07, 2025, 11:53:06 PM »
nvm.  Wrong thread.
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Ron

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3504 on: March 12, 2025, 04:13:10 PM »
For the invisible things of him since the creation of the world are clearly seen, being perceived through the things that are made, even his everlasting power and divinity, that they may be without excuse. Because knowing God, they didn’t glorify him as God, and didn’t give thanks, but became vain in their reasoning, and their senseless heart was darkened. Professing themselves to be wise, they became fools.

Angel Eyes

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Ron

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3506 on: March 12, 2025, 05:25:08 PM »
Ran across this link in an article I was reading, it's an interesting wikileaks document from 2/08 discussing Russia and Ukraine joining NATO. 

Quote
A 2008 classified diplomatic cable (WikiLeaks reference: 08MOSCOW265_a) from then-Ambassador Burns explicitly warned that "Ukrainian entry into NATO is the brightest of all redlines for the Russian elite (not just Putin)... I have yet to find anyone who views Ukraine in NATO as anything other than a direct challenge to Russian interests."

https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/08MOSCOW265_a.html
For the invisible things of him since the creation of the world are clearly seen, being perceived through the things that are made, even his everlasting power and divinity, that they may be without excuse. Because knowing God, they didn’t glorify him as God, and didn’t give thanks, but became vain in their reasoning, and their senseless heart was darkened. Professing themselves to be wise, they became fools.

Hawkmoon

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3507 on: March 12, 2025, 08:25:10 PM »
Ran across this link in an article I was reading, it's an interesting wikileaks document from 2/08 discussing Russia and Ukraine joining NATO.

Quote
A 2008 classified diplomatic cable (WikiLeaks reference: 08MOSCOW265_a) from then-Ambassador Burns explicitly warned that "Ukrainian entry into NATO is the brightest of all redlines for the Russian elite (not just Putin)... I have yet to find anyone who views Ukraine in NATO as anything other than a direct challenge to Russian interests."

https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/08MOSCOW265_a.html

And yet Russia's annexing of the Crimean peninsula could hardly make a stronger argument for exactly why Ukraine should be allowed to join NATO.
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Ron

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3508 on: March 13, 2025, 07:00:12 AM »
https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/08MOSCOW265_a.html


And yet Russia's annexing of the Crimean peninsula could hardly make a stronger argument for exactly why Ukraine should be allowed to join NATO.

The very real prospect of NATO moving into Ukraine and grabbing Russia's most important Black Sea port is the reason it was annexed. 

This isn't a "chicken or the egg" dilemma. 

There had been Russian spy vs Western spy shenanigan's going on in Ukraine for years. When Russia lost a friendly government in Ukraine (thanks in part to USAID money), they moved in to protect their "interests" in Crimea, the sea port they've pretty much controlled since the 1700's.

I guess I just disagree with those who don't think the wests policies regarding Russia have been provocative. Our FP "experts" seem to be molded in the model of Dr Strangelove. 

The end of history where the west takes over the rest of the world seems to have hit a speed bump. The whole concept is just a megalomaniac deep state delusion. 



 
For the invisible things of him since the creation of the world are clearly seen, being perceived through the things that are made, even his everlasting power and divinity, that they may be without excuse. Because knowing God, they didn’t glorify him as God, and didn’t give thanks, but became vain in their reasoning, and their senseless heart was darkened. Professing themselves to be wise, they became fools.

cordex

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3509 on: March 13, 2025, 08:00:23 AM »
I guess I just disagree with those who don't think the wests policies regarding Russia have been provocative.
I guess I just disagree with those who think the world started with western policies provoking Russia.

You are critical of Ukrainian intervention in one direction only.  By what fundamental principles are you offended by western provocation while totally ignoring the much longer, bloody, and provocative history of Russian intervention in Ukraine?  Why is Russian interventionism cool but Western interventionism evil?

Don't get me wrong - I can absolutely see the argument that the US shouldn't have helped fund pro-Western politicians rise to power. 

However, should we simultaneously ignore that Russia funded pro-Russian politicians?  Or poisoned pro-Western politicians?  Or leveraged gas pricing, trade wars, and outright cutting off gas supplies to punish Ukraine when they didn't toe the line with Moscow?  Or financing, arming, and fomenting open rebellion in Ukrainian territories they wanted to conquer?  Or deploying military "volunteers" to train and lead separatist fighters? 

Why is the exertion of influence and supporting friendly governments only a problem when we do it?

MechAg94

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3510 on: March 13, 2025, 10:32:34 AM »
I guess I just disagree with those who think the world started with western policies provoking Russia.

You are critical of Ukrainian intervention in one direction only.  By what fundamental principles are you offended by western provocation while totally ignoring the much longer, bloody, and provocative history of Russian intervention in Ukraine?  Why is Russian interventionism cool but Western interventionism evil?

Don't get me wrong - I can absolutely see the argument that the US shouldn't have helped fund pro-Western politicians rise to power. 

However, should we simultaneously ignore that Russia funded pro-Russian politicians?  Or poisoned pro-Western politicians?  Or leveraged gas pricing, trade wars, and outright cutting off gas supplies to punish Ukraine when they didn't toe the line with Moscow?  Or financing, arming, and fomenting open rebellion in Ukrainian territories they wanted to conquer?  Or deploying military "volunteers" to train and lead separatist fighters? 

Why is the exertion of influence and supporting friendly governments only a problem when we do it?
For me, I don't think we alone caused the war, but the intervention we funded is on the list of causes.  I get the impression the people doing the intervening were not interested in a diplomatic solution to prevent a war.  I remember Russia was talking about US doing bio-warfare research there and given all we have learned about Fauci, there was very likely some truth to that. 
“It is much more important to kill bad bills than to pass good ones.”  ― Calvin Coolidge

cordex

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3511 on: March 13, 2025, 11:45:43 AM »
For me, I don't think we alone caused the war, but the intervention we funded is on the list of causes.  I get the impression the people doing the intervening were not interested in a diplomatic solution to prevent a war.
I'm sure you could point to a thousand different things that were remote or contributing causes to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.  Some would be geopolitical, some would be economic, some would be historical, and I'm sure that the US is responsible for a few of them.  At the same time, those US interventions took place in the context of massive, bloody, and ongoing Russian interventions both overt and covert.

Mid-century Poland is an interesting analogy.

Prior to the German invasion of 1939, Britain, Romania, and to a lesser extent the US and Soviet Union provided an element of support to Poland.  Germany justified their invasion by insisting they needed to reclaim historically German territory (Danzig and the Polish corridor), protect ethnic Germans in Poland, and defend themselves from encirclement.  Funny how familiar those sound.

Anyway, someone feeling very sympathetic toward mid-century Germany might say "Ah ha!  If those Brits hadn't supported Poland, then Germany wouldn't have felt so threatened and wouldn't have had to invade!"  While no doubt Poland being friendly with someone Germany planned to oppose militarily contributed to their desire to conquer Poland, that wasn't the proximate cause of the invasion.  Likewise, the US supporting a Ukrainian government friendly with the West is not the proximate cause of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

I remember Russia was talking about US doing bio-warfare research there and given all we have learned about Fauci, there was very likely some truth to that.
I can't discount it entirely, but the Russian government has proven to be about as truthful and forthcoming as Baghdad Bob, so I wouldn't put any faith in their claims either.

K Frame

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3512 on: March 13, 2025, 01:58:24 PM »
Wait...

does De Selby have an acolyte all of a sudden?
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Ron

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3513 on: March 13, 2025, 06:14:19 PM »
I guess I just disagree with those who think the world started with western policies provoking Russia.

You are critical of Ukrainian intervention in one direction only.  By what fundamental principles are you offended by western provocation while totally ignoring the much longer, bloody, and provocative history of Russian intervention in Ukraine?  Why is Russian interventionism cool but Western interventionism evil?

Don't get me wrong - I can absolutely see the argument that the US shouldn't have helped fund pro-Western politicians rise to power. 

However, should we simultaneously ignore that Russia funded pro-Russian politicians?  Or poisoned pro-Western politicians?  Or leveraged gas pricing, trade wars, and outright cutting off gas supplies to punish Ukraine when they didn't toe the line with Moscow?  Or financing, arming, and fomenting open rebellion in Ukrainian territories they wanted to conquer?  Or deploying military "volunteers" to train and lead separatist fighters? 

Why is the exertion of influence and supporting friendly governments only a problem when we do it?

NATO was the counterbalance to the USSR.
NATO continually expanded onto and close to the Russian border after the USSR broke apart.
The Black Sea port was apparently Russia's red line they wouldn't tolerate losing.

Ultimately, I've become increasingly opposed to our role as world police for "democracy". I'm not an isolationist but I no longer fall in line every time we are persuaded to go to war on the other side of the globe.

I haven't read a single argument that has convinced me that pursuing the integration of Ukraine into the EU and NATO over Russian objections, even to the point of military conflict, is GOOD FOR THE USA.

If you guys feel that that Ukraine being integrated into the western economic and military sphere is worth going to war over, I just disagree. 
 
For the invisible things of him since the creation of the world are clearly seen, being perceived through the things that are made, even his everlasting power and divinity, that they may be without excuse. Because knowing God, they didn’t glorify him as God, and didn’t give thanks, but became vain in their reasoning, and their senseless heart was darkened. Professing themselves to be wise, they became fools.

K Frame

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3514 on: March 13, 2025, 06:53:11 PM »
"NATO continually expanded onto and close to the Russian border after the USSR broke apart."

At the specific request of multiple former "voluntary members" of the Soviet Union who wanted some level of surety that Russia wouldn't once again revisit its expansionist past and try to once again make them "voluntary members" of whatever land grabbing cluster *expletive deleted*ck Russia's dictator du jour had in mind.

Hard to blame them for wanting to join NATO and enjoy its protections.

MAGA unto others as you would have them MAGA unto you!

Dogs are our link to paradise. They don’t know evil or jealousy or discontent. To sit with a dog on a hillside on a glorious afternoon is to be back in Eden, where doing nothing was not boring—it was peace. — Milan Kundera


The gift which I am sending you is called a dog, and is in fact the most precious and valuable possession of mankind
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cordex

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3515 on: March 13, 2025, 08:08:31 PM »
Ultimately, I've become increasingly opposed to our role as world police for "democracy". I'm not an isolationist but I no longer fall in line every time we are persuaded to go to war on the other side of the globe.
I don’t disagree with any of this.

I haven't read a single argument that has convinced me that pursuing the integration of Ukraine into the EU and NATO over Russian objections, even to the point of military conflict, is GOOD FOR THE USA.

If you guys feel that that Ukraine being integrated into the western economic and military sphere is worth going to war over, I just disagree.
Come back here with those goalposts, Ron. I think it is clear that is not what I was disagreeing with. Nor have your criticisms of the conflict been anything like limited to “the US shouldn’t go to war over this.”

Live Life

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3516 on: March 13, 2025, 10:07:52 PM »
And we are moving towards peaceful end to Ukraine war ...

Russia Ukraine cease-fire deal: Putin says he agrees with US proposal (AI generated highlights) - https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-ukraine-cease-fire-deal-162822654.html

- Russian President Putin agrees in principle to a U.S. ceasefire proposal, but emphasizes the need for terms that ensure lasting peace and address root causes of the crisis.

- Ukrainian President Zelenskyy accuses Putin of essentially preparing to reject the ceasefire, claiming that Russia is surrounding the idea with preconditions that will delay or prevent its implementation.

- U.S. President Trump expresses guarded optimism about Putin's statement on the ceasefire, noting that it is a promising development but emphasizing the need for Russia to follow through on its commitments.
Quote
Russia has said it will not accept peacekeepers from any NATO members to monitor a prospective truce.

Ron

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3517 on: March 13, 2025, 11:00:54 PM »

... Nor have your criticisms of the conflict been anything like limited to “the US shouldn’t go to war over this.”
My criticisms are that our policies and the types of of support we provided Ukraine provoked Russia into action.

I haven't read anything that fits the sequence of events better than what John Mearsheimer laid out in the video I posted early on, I think in this thread actually.

This article is a more recent breakdown of his assertions with which I mostly tend to agree.

https://www.unz.com/article/who-caused-the-ukraine-war/




 
For the invisible things of him since the creation of the world are clearly seen, being perceived through the things that are made, even his everlasting power and divinity, that they may be without excuse. Because knowing God, they didn’t glorify him as God, and didn’t give thanks, but became vain in their reasoning, and their senseless heart was darkened. Professing themselves to be wise, they became fools.

Hawkmoon

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3518 on: March 14, 2025, 01:09:27 AM »
And we are moving towards peaceful end to Ukraine war ...

Russia Ukraine cease-fire deal: Putin says he agrees with US proposal (AI generated highlights) - https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-ukraine-cease-fire-deal-162822654.html

- Russian President Putin agrees in principle to a U.S. ceasefire proposal, but emphasizes the need for terms that ensure lasting peace and address root causes of the crisis.

- Ukrainian President Zelenskyy accuses Putin of essentially preparing to reject the ceasefire, claiming that Russia is surrounding the idea with preconditions that will delay or prevent its implementation.

- U.S. President Trump expresses guarded optimism about Putin's statement on the ceasefire, noting that it is a promising development but emphasizing the need for Russia to follow through on its commitments.

I saw that Putin wants assurances that Ukrainian troops will withdraw from Kursk. I didn't see anything about Putin promising to withdraw Russian troops from the Ukrainian territories they occupy.
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Opportunity

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3519 on: March 14, 2025, 03:33:47 AM »
I saw that Putin wants assurances that Ukrainian troops will withdraw from Kursk. I didn't see anything about Putin promising to withdraw Russian troops from the Ukrainian territories they occupy.
Excuse me, what does Putin want? Guarantees that Ukraine will withdraw its troops from Kursk?))) When did he say that?
Wake up, the situation has been different for a long time. It's all over, we've moved on—the brilliant operation of the great commander in Kursk is finished. No one really understood the goals of this operation, but certain objectives were achieved—a lot of military equipment was destroyed, plus elite military units were wiped out. And (as they say) another million or two million North Koreans were destroyed, though almost no one saw them, but a lot were definitely wiped out.

Ron

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3520 on: March 14, 2025, 06:38:39 AM »
I'm not confident that Trump can escape this tar baby.
For the invisible things of him since the creation of the world are clearly seen, being perceived through the things that are made, even his everlasting power and divinity, that they may be without excuse. Because knowing God, they didn’t glorify him as God, and didn’t give thanks, but became vain in their reasoning, and their senseless heart was darkened. Professing themselves to be wise, they became fools.

K Frame

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3521 on: March 14, 2025, 07:08:41 AM »
I saw that Putin wants assurances that Ukrainian troops will withdraw from Kursk. I didn't see anything about Putin promising to withdraw Russian troops from the Ukrainian territories they occupy.


That's because Russian troops are occupying NO Ukrainian territory, in Putin's mind.

Ukraine is, according to him, and always has been, part of traditional Russia and must be treated as such.

His "special military operation" was nothing more than a naked land grab designed to reincorporate Ukraine into the greater Russian sphere. Had it been successful (as was his naked land grab for Crimea), he would have kicked off planning for the next naked land grab.

Everything I've seen out of him tells me that his only goal was to push as many boundaries as possible to try to reassemble the greater part of the Soviet Union into a new Russian empire.

MAGA unto others as you would have them MAGA unto you!

Dogs are our link to paradise. They don’t know evil or jealousy or discontent. To sit with a dog on a hillside on a glorious afternoon is to be back in Eden, where doing nothing was not boring—it was peace. — Milan Kundera


The gift which I am sending you is called a dog, and is in fact the most precious and valuable possession of mankind
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cordex

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3522 on: March 14, 2025, 09:32:20 AM »
My criticisms are that our policies and the types of of support we provided Ukraine provoked Russia into action.
Do you believe that the only actor with any agency is the US?  I tend to think both Russia and Ukraine have the capacity for more than a merely reflexive response to US action, but maybe you just see them as mindless NPCs.

Ukraine cozying up to non-Russian-aligned nations for defense likely contributed to Russia's decision to invade prior to that coming to pass, but absent a Ukrainian government they could directly puppet, I believe Russia likely would have invaded anyway.  Russia's decision to invade was not as overly simplistic as you make it out to be.  They have (and have expressed) motivations well beyond "self-defense against encirclement!"  And that leaves out the unstated but glaringly obvious economic motivations.

This article is a more recent breakdown of his assertions with which I mostly tend to agree.

https://www.unz.com/article/who-caused-the-ukraine-war/
Of all the perspective in the world, that is certainly one of them.

Again, US and NATO actions absolutely featured into Russian decision making, just as Britain making nice with Poland influenced Hitler's decision to invade Poland.  However, if Poland had rebuffed Britain, I don't think for a second that Hitler and Stalin would have shrugged and looked elsewhere to invade.  Nor do I think that Ukraine could have avoided this invasion short of becoming a vassal state of Russia.

Instead of recognizing western actions as a component of the decision, you and Mearsheimer simplistically assume it is the only factor, completely underselling Russia's internal dynamics, its neo-Imperial goals, and its critical need to control competing European oil and gas reserves - the core economic force which drives Russia. 

I'd note that taken together, the Donbass and Crimea account for something like 80% of Ukraine's natural gas reserves, 90% of its natural gas production, and 63% of Ukraine's coal reserves, plus a chunk of their oil.  Isn't it an amazing coincidence that those are also the specific regions that have Russian backed separatist movements?

Among other weaknesses, your framing of the issue requires the acceptance of the following absurd assumptions:
1. Russia has a right to control its neighbors.
2. Russia is a mindless automaton, responding only to NATO stimuli.
3. Ukraine only desires to turn westward because of US influence as opposed to having legitimate self-interest that would be served in not being a Russian puppet.

My complaint is not that you criticize US foreign policy, it is that you only criticize US foreign policy.  Russia's lies, atrocities, manipulations, and choices are all ignored, or worse blamed on the US.  You lay this war at the feet of the US while washing clean the feet of the actual invader.

Ron

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3523 on: March 14, 2025, 06:45:44 PM »
Do you believe that the only actor with any agency is the US?  I tend to think both Russia and Ukraine have the capacity for more than a merely reflexive response to US action, but maybe you just see them as mindless NPCs.

Ukraine cozying up to non-Russian-aligned nations for defense likely contributed to Russia's decision to invade prior to that coming to pass, but absent a Ukrainian government they could directly puppet, I believe Russia likely would have invaded anyway.  Russia's decision to invade was not as overly simplistic as you make it out to be.  They have (and have expressed) motivations well beyond "self-defense against encirclement!"  And that leaves out the unstated but glaringly obvious economic motivations.
Of all the perspective in the world, that is certainly one of them.

Again, US and NATO actions absolutely featured into Russian decision making, just as Britain making nice with Poland influenced Hitler's decision to invade Poland.  However, if Poland had rebuffed Britain, I don't think for a second that Hitler and Stalin would have shrugged and looked elsewhere to invade.  Nor do I think that Ukraine could have avoided this invasion short of becoming a vassal state of Russia.

Instead of recognizing western actions as a component of the decision, you and Mearsheimer simplistically assume it is the only factor, completely underselling Russia's internal dynamics, its neo-Imperial goals, and its critical need to control competing European oil and gas reserves - the core economic force which drives Russia. 

I'd note that taken together, the Donbass and Crimea account for something like 80% of Ukraine's natural gas reserves, 90% of its natural gas production, and 63% of Ukraine's coal reserves, plus a chunk of their oil.  Isn't it an amazing coincidence that those are also the specific regions that have Russian backed separatist movements?

Among other weaknesses, your framing of the issue requires the acceptance of the following absurd assumptions:
1. Russia has a right to control its neighbors.
2. Russia is a mindless automaton, responding only to NATO stimuli.
3. Ukraine only desires to turn westward because of US influence as opposed to having legitimate self-interest that would be served in not being a Russian puppet.

My complaint is not that you criticize US foreign policy, it is that you only criticize US foreign policy.  Russia's lies, atrocities, manipulations, and choices are all ignored, or worse blamed on the US.  You lay this war at the feet of the US while washing clean the feet of the actual invader.

I have no interest in defending myself against all your strawman and reframing arguments.

Regarding Putin I will respond though. I've spent years at APS ranting about the intelligence agencies running the US and world. My only opinion of Putin is he is a KGB intelligence agent who views my country as an adversary. He is no friend to me.

My position is purely a pragmatic position. An economic free zone with geopolitical neutrality would have been much preferred to what we have now. I would have rather seen us get bogged down in diplomatic talks and horse trading in an effort to avoid military conflict than call the KGB guys bluff and plow forward towards potential hot war.   

We called his bluff for what? So we can send more of our most patriotic men to die in Europe in the name of NATO expansion?

I'm done with the retarded policies and wars that have no clear US security interests undergirding them.

 
For the invisible things of him since the creation of the world are clearly seen, being perceived through the things that are made, even his everlasting power and divinity, that they may be without excuse. Because knowing God, they didn’t glorify him as God, and didn’t give thanks, but became vain in their reasoning, and their senseless heart was darkened. Professing themselves to be wise, they became fools.

cordex

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #3524 on: March 14, 2025, 09:27:49 PM »
I have no interest in defending myself against all your strawman and reframing arguments.
It is not my intent to strawman you.  Your stated position has been pretty simplistic and straightforward, but if I misunderstood a piece of it then I’m sorry. Not sure what your complaint is regarding reframing.  Am I supposed to unquestioningly accept your framing of the issue regardless of its faults and weaknesses?
Regarding Putin I will respond though. I've spent years at APS ranting about the intelligence agencies running the US and world. My only opinion of Putin is he is a KGB intelligence agent who views my country as an adversary. He is no friend to me.
I must have missed your contemporary condemnations of him. The only party I have seen you blame is the US for our attempts at swaying Ukraine toward the west. As far as I have seen you have removed any and all responsibility for the invasion from Russia.
My position is purely a pragmatic position. An economic free zone with geopolitical neutrality would have been much preferred to what we have now.
Is it your understanding that this was ever a serious option?  I mean, sure, if that was a choice, absolutely.

But was that a realistic choice?