Author Topic: Go plan re-assessment should things get bad  (Read 1263 times)

Lennyjoe

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Go plan re-assessment should things get bad
« on: March 21, 2022, 06:13:27 PM »
Current events got me busy re-evaluating our go kits so I’ve been busy assessing our wares and reorganizing what we do have.

Haven’t gone full prepper mode but feel it’s good to have some sort of plan should things go south.  We have 4 of our adult girls living in our area and I’ve always been the family organizer for bad situations.  The other 2 adult kids (1 son and 1 daughter) are in Arizona and I’ve been coaching them on preparing for the worst.  Their fall back is a friends remote farm in New Mexico.

Things I’ve been working on:
Fall back location should events dictate moving from Ohio.
- USAF base within 15 miles that will most likely be on the initial nuke salvo list
- Have an RV and truck capable to be on the road within an hour if need be
- - will need to load water, food provisions for 30 days and clothing
- - already has additional camping gear, water purification filters and fire starters

- Remote farm in WV 4 hours away with some provisions for 30 days.  Rally point for all of us in Ohio and only a tank full of gas away.
- - has spring water, fuel storage and generators
- - camping gear, water purification filters and fire starters
- - additional ammo stockpile provided by all of our families that are planning on rallying there. 

Each kid has the following kits ready for them for personal protection:
- 1 AR15 with ammo can
- - ammo can contains 750 rounds, 6 magazines and stripper clips
- 1 pistol (already on hand)
- - ammo can with 200 rounds of PP ammo and 4 extra magazines
- Hand held radio with spare batteries

I know it’s minimal right now but we’ve been adding things here and there as time, money permit.  One thing I want to add to the fall back location is more comms equipment so that’s on our short list.

Hopefully things will never get to the point where we have to withdraw but at least having a minimal plan and provisions will allow us to get thru the initial wave of terror.

Anyone else doing a re-assessment of their back up plan.

Hawkmoon

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Re: Go plan re-assessment should things get bad
« Reply #1 on: March 21, 2022, 06:18:05 PM »
What's your choice for the hand-held radios?
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RoadKingLarry

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Re: Go plan re-assessment should things get bad
« Reply #2 on: March 21, 2022, 06:23:43 PM »
Quote
- Remote farm in WV 4 hours away with some provisions for 30 days.  Rally point for all of us in Ohio and only a tank full of gas away.

You really need to be prescient about bugging out to a remote location and be there well before the SHTF or really even looks like the *expletive deleted*it really looks like it's gonna hit the fan or someone else local will have taken it over before you get there.

Always get a chuckle when I hear city folks talk about bugging out to the country if things go bad. A few get seriously pissed off when I point out that we're already here and don't really need them or their mouths to feed.
If ye love wealth better than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, go home from us in peace. We ask not your counsels or your arms. Crouch down and lick the hands which feed you. May your chains set lightly upon you, and may posterity forget that you were our countrymen.

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Northwoods

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Re: Go plan re-assessment should things get bad
« Reply #3 on: March 21, 2022, 07:05:11 PM »
You really need to be prescient about bugging out to a remote location and be there well before the SHTF or really even looks like the *expletive deleted*it really looks like it's gonna hit the fan or someone else local will have taken it over before you get there.

Always get a chuckle when I hear city folks talk about bugging out to the country if things go bad. A few get seriously pissed off when I point out that we're already here and don't really need them or their mouths to feed.

For the generic city folk, yeah, those types are set for a rude awakening.  In Lenny’s case though, it’s a family property and presumably he’s either the owner, part owner, or has an invitation from the owner already.  And his kids sound like they have pre-arrangements with the remote farm on their destination plan.
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Ben

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Re: Go plan re-assessment should things get bad
« Reply #4 on: March 21, 2022, 07:10:23 PM »
You really need to be prescient about bugging out to a remote location and be there well before the SHTF or really even looks like the *expletive deleted*it really looks like it's gonna hit the fan or someone else local will have taken it over before you get there.

This would be my advice as well, given that it looks like bugging out is a primary part of your plan. Once the SHTF, your chances of making it to your location are drastically, drastically reduced.

Bugging in (depending on the event) might be a better option if you don't leave well before the SHTF. The farther away your location, the worse your odds. Do you have a backup plan for the likely scenario of possibly having to abandon your vehicles somewhere along your route? Bicycles or similar to get you through blocked roads? Well-stocked but not too heavy rucks and good hiking boots if you have to hoof it? Ways to conceal your rifles so as not to draw attention to yourselves while hoofing it?

I don't mean to be a debbie-downer, but bugging out is just a sketchy option at the point that the S has HTF. FWIW, bugging out* was a primary option for me when I still lived in a condo in Santa Barbara, and the idea of having to do so was not pleasant, given the restricted routes I had out of there, with the plan being to make it to the folks' farm, 250 miles away. I even thought about stealing the fed.gov boat I had access to and heading to the Channel Islands.  :laugh:


*Bugging out of the condo was only for big nuclear bomb type SHTF stuff. Something like a few weeks without power from a natural disaster like an Earthquake, the plan was to bug-in as long as the condo was still standing.
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Fly320s

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Re: Go plan re-assessment should things get bad
« Reply #5 on: March 21, 2022, 07:25:59 PM »
Current events?

If you are worried about Putin launching nukes, no amount of prep or bugging out will save you.  Most of the US will be flattened if Russia's missles work. 

The odds of a nuclear war have increased recently, but they are still lottery-winning odds.  You are more likely to be a victim of a car crash or tree falling on you.

Put your energy towards surviving 5 to 7 years of recession instead
Islamic sex dolls.  Do they blow themselves up?

zahc

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Re: Go plan re-assessment should things get bad
« Reply #6 on: March 21, 2022, 07:30:50 PM »
Quote
If you are worried about Putin launching nukes, no amount of prep or bugging out will save you.  Most of the US will be flattened if Russia's missles work.

Citation needed. The US is enormous.

Bugging out is actually not the best strategy against nuclear strikes because it takes too long. The best thing to do is have a fallout shelter. This has all been well-studied.
Maybe a rare occurence, but then you only have to get murdered once to ruin your whole day.
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Fly320s

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Re: Go plan re-assessment should things get bad
« Reply #7 on: March 21, 2022, 08:05:17 PM »
Citation needed. The US is enormous.

Bugging out is actually not the best strategy against nuclear strikes because it takes too long. The best thing to do is have a fallout shelter. This has all been well-studied.

Russia has at least 1,600 active nuclear warheads.  https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction

The US has 326 cities with a population of 100,000 or more.  https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_cities_by_population

Then there are all of the known missle silos, ammo dumps, remote military bases, infrastructure choke points, dams, and lakes that can be targeted with the extra missles.

As inept as the Russians are, I bet they still have targeted every important site in the US.  There probably won't be much area that won't be directly affected, and there damn sure won't be any areas free from fallout.
Islamic sex dolls.  Do they blow themselves up?

Lennyjoe

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Re: Go plan re-assessment should things get bad
« Reply #8 on: March 21, 2022, 09:36:32 PM »
You really need to be prescient about bugging out to a remote location and be there well before the SHTF or really even looks like the *expletive deleted*it really looks like it's gonna hit the fan or someone else local will have taken it over before you get there.
Quote

Families farm so no issue there

Lennyjoe

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Re: Go plan re-assessment should things get bad
« Reply #9 on: March 21, 2022, 09:38:25 PM »
This would be my advice as well, given that it looks like bugging out is a primary part of your plan. Once the SHTF, your chances of making it to your location are drastically, drastically reduced.

Bugging in (depending on the event) might be a better option if you don't leave well before the SHTF. The farther away your location, the worse your odds. Do you have a backup plan for the likely scenario of possibly having to abandon your vehicles somewhere along your route? Bicycles or similar to get you through blocked roads? Well-stocked but not too heavy rucks and good hiking boots if you have to hoof it? Ways to conceal your rifles so as not to draw attention to yourselves while hoofing it?

I don't mean to be a debbie-downer, but bugging out is just a sketchy option at the point that the S has HTF. FWIW, bugging out* was a primary option for me when I still lived in a condo in Santa Barbara, and the idea of having to do so was not pleasant, given the restricted routes I had out of there, with the plan being to make it to the folks' farm, 250 miles away. I even thought about stealing the fed.gov boat I had access to and heading to the Channel Islands.
Quote

Obviously paying attention to current events helps determine when it’s time to go.  I’m not talking about jumping in the truck as the nuke leaves the launcher….

Lennyjoe

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Re: Go plan re-assessment should things get bad
« Reply #10 on: March 21, 2022, 09:40:26 PM »
Current events?

If you are worried about Putin launching nukes, no amount of prep or bugging out will save you.  Most of the US will be flattened if Russia's missles work. 

The odds of a nuclear war have increased recently, but they are still lottery-winning odds.  You are more likely to be a victim of a car crash or tree falling on you.

Put your energy towards surviving 5 to 7 years of recession instead

That too.  I’m talking about making a hasty retreat to safer areas.  I’m certainly thinking about long time survival as well.

Lennyjoe

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Re: Go plan re-assessment should things get bad
« Reply #11 on: March 21, 2022, 09:41:48 PM »
Bugging out is actually not the best strategy against nuclear strikes because it takes too long. The best thing to do is have a fallout shelter. This has all been well-studied.

I remember growing up during the Cold War days when fallout shelters were part of the normal discussion. 

Nick1911

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Re: Go plan re-assessment should things get bad
« Reply #12 on: March 21, 2022, 10:03:02 PM »
Contingency planing should start from the particular contingency being addressed.  What you do in one situation is totally inappropriate in others.  Lennyjoe - what contingencies are you interested in addressing?

Personally, I don't plan to leave my home in any contingency the area becomes NBC uninhabitable.  There are a couple reasons for this.  The property itself is spacious enough and far enough away from high population density that I feel fairly secure.  It is close enough to a low SES area that low level property crime could become an issue in economic collapse.  But history has shown that folks in those areas generally prefer to burn their own communities down in times of real unrest.  But, more than all that, my resources are here.  Tools, equipment, energy sources, materials... it's all accumulated here.  I'd be starting at a massive disadvantage going elsewhere.

To the question of nuclear combat - we are probably closer to it than any time since the end of the cold war, but it still remains a highly improbable event.  There's a lot of escalations between the current Ukraine war and nuclear detonations on US soil.  That said, keep an eye on it, because things can develop quickly.  "There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen"  (Gods, forgive me for quoting Lenin, but it does fit)

If you're serious about planning for the contingency of nuclear combat, I suggest reading Nuclear war survival skills, available for free, here.  The material is dated, but nuclear weapons are much the same as they ever have been, and the information about how to deal with them is too.  At a minimum, think about what you will do for shelter and information.

Where exactly gets hit, if it's airburst or surface burst, and weather conditions will dictate much about fallout.

cordex

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Re: Go plan re-assessment should things get bad
« Reply #13 on: March 21, 2022, 10:49:53 PM »
Russia has at least 1,600 active nuclear warheads.  https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction

The US has 326 cities with a population of 100,000 or more.  https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_cities_by_population

Then there are all of the known missle silos, ammo dumps, remote military bases, infrastructure choke points, dams, and lakes that can be targeted with the extra missles.

As inept as the Russians are, I bet they still have targeted every important site in the US.  There probably won't be much area that won't be directly affected, and there damn sure won't be any areas free from fallout.
I don’t know what current Russian nuclear doctrine is, but one reason for the US building our arsenal so large was the idea that many important targets would likely need to be targeted with multiple munitions. Between the risks of interception, failure of the device, and repeat hits being necessary for hard targets, the idea was to increase chance of success via what initially seems like massive overkill.

My guess is thar Russia holds to that but more so. Their weapons are likely not as well maintained, and our interception ability is significantly better than Soviet capabilities were.

Just to say that one missile per target probably isn’t a reasonable assumption to make.

French G.

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Re: Go plan re-assessment should things get bad
« Reply #14 on: March 21, 2022, 11:54:26 PM »
You really need to be prescient about bugging out to a remote location and be there well before the SHTF or really even looks like the *expletive deleted*it really looks like it's gonna hit the fan or someone else local will have taken it over before you get there.

Always get a chuckle when I hear city folks talk about bugging out to the country if things go bad. A few get seriously pissed off when I point out that we're already here and don't really need them or their mouths to feed.

Yeah, I am not from here but I am here now. All the northern virginia jeep tribe passes through as they pretend to rough it. Autonomous supply delivery systems.


My plans aren't great but we will make do. I will be at the pinnacle when I can organize enough people to shut down all the roads in the county. Already studying my local bridge, east/west traffic stops for 20 miles north and south without that bridge except for not well understood back roads.
AKA Navy Joe   

I'm so contrarian that I didn't respond to the thread.

Ben

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Re: Go plan re-assessment should things get bad
« Reply #15 on: March 22, 2022, 08:25:51 AM »
I know there's a lot of nuke talk with Putin and all, but I still submit that a more likely scenario would be a major cyberattack on infrastructure. A nuke attack on the US would almost certainly lead to a nuclear counterattack. With a cyberattack, even if there is a counterattack, I think Russia is less tied into their infrastructure than the US is, and could better survive such an attack.

That is, even if it could be easily pinned on them. It's more likely to know who launched a nuke. Not so with a cyberattack. Right now would be a perfect time for China, NK, or terrorists (with the help of a big player) to launch a cyberattack on us.
"I'm a foolish old man that has been drawn into a wild goose chase by a harpy in trousers and a nincompoop."

Lennyjoe

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Re: Go plan re-assessment should things get bad
« Reply #16 on: March 22, 2022, 10:46:47 AM »
So it’s more than just nuke talk that I’m preparing for.  Any major event that would cause my family to displace to a secondary location is what I’m preparing for.

Worst case, nuclear threats to the point of switch pull.  Realizing that there may be a decision point well before the actual launch that would want me to move my family to safer grounds.  Also realizing that even that location may not survive, but it’s better than being right in the general vicinity of a first tier target (military base).

Could even be something like cyber attacks that cripple the economy where feast and famine prevails in order to survive.  Having my family trapped in a big city may not be the best thing.  Again, making the decision at the right time is key, well before things like gas becomes so scarce that people will kill each other for a gallon of it.

Is it overkill or fearmongering to even think of such things?  Paranoia or over reaction?  Maybe not but being minimally prepared for such things doesn’t hurt. 

Ben

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Re: Go plan re-assessment should things get bad
« Reply #17 on: March 22, 2022, 10:55:54 AM »
Again, making the decision at the right time is key, well before things like gas becomes so scarce that people will kill each other for a gallon of it.

I've mentioned it before, but depending on the event,  I believe there would be some "buffer time", whether you are bugging out or in, when people will still think paper money is more important than things, and you could probably find enough people with dollar signs for eyes who will sell you 5 gallons of gas for $500. Or a case of canned soup for $100.

That might be a good time to take off or hunker down, and would also be a good case for keeping a couple thousand dollars in twenties and hundreds handy to take advantage of the greed.
"I'm a foolish old man that has been drawn into a wild goose chase by a harpy in trousers and a nincompoop."

French G.

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Re: Go plan re-assessment should things get bad
« Reply #18 on: March 22, 2022, 11:03:49 AM »
I think there is a buffer time when things are still kinda working where you roast any plastic card you have to buy things. I already have things but I don’t run myself to bankruptcy every month.

After that it is cash for the slow witted that take it, then barter. I don’t ever want to have to steal to survive but in a truly large scale pockylips if I don’t see tracks into all those usually unoccupied camps I will assume the guests won’t ever be coming. The rest that run to the hills without a place to land require way less ethics to deal with.
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Ben

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Re: Go plan re-assessment should things get bad
« Reply #19 on: March 22, 2022, 11:18:06 AM »
Yeah, good thought. Plastic first, then cash.

Though depending on the attack, plastic might not work. I saw that on a small scale many years ago. I think it was shortly after I started grad school. A communications satellite used for financial transactions went temporarily offline for some of the West Coast.

All of the relatively new at the time card readers at the gas pumps stopped working. I didn't know what was going on other than my regular gas station had a line going out the door. There was a note on the pump that the readers were down and that you had to pay inside. They were still taking cards, but using the old fashioned paper receipt  non-electric card machines to run receipts after they called the card company for every person's credit card to verify the card and get a code.

That was the big line. They had another sign inside that said cash still worked, and I was able to hand an attendant $20, get my gas, and go. Some of those people in line were probably waiting 30 min or more to get their card approved the old fashioned way. I learned from the news that evening what had happened.
"I'm a foolish old man that has been drawn into a wild goose chase by a harpy in trousers and a nincompoop."

French G.

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Re: Go plan re-assessment should things get bad
« Reply #20 on: March 22, 2022, 11:30:16 AM »
Oh I have seen that too, apparently you have to explain in crayon that after the hurricane your card no worky with no power. But if the lights are on max the cash advance, max the atm, then buy as much as you can haul with the card.
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Nick1911

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Re: Go plan re-assessment should things get bad
« Reply #21 on: March 22, 2022, 11:49:19 AM »
I'm not convinced that cyber attacks would lead to quite the infrastructure collapse that people fear.

Coms and payment systems?  Could go down for a while, or be spotty.  Water and energy?  Eh, that's been assessed and studied pretty well, there's a lot of redundancy built in.

Lennyjoe

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Re: Go plan re-assessment should things get bad
« Reply #22 on: March 22, 2022, 12:36:31 PM »
What's your choice for the hand-held radios?

We have several small handheld BAOFENG BF-888S Two Way Radios for short distance but those require charging so they’re fine as long as I have some place to charge.

Also have some stronger AA battery Midland LXT500VP3 Two Way Radios for back up.

Finally, I have a Baofeng Dual Band FM transceiver handheld and a smaller Baofeng UV6R, both loaded with local ham frequencies. 

Also have CB’s available for both of our vehicles.

Nothing set yet at the farm but we’re working on that. 

I’m not much of a comms guy so there’s a whole lot of education needed on that part. 

Bogie

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Re: Go plan re-assessment should things get bad
« Reply #23 on: March 22, 2022, 09:04:47 PM »
Make friends with your neighbors.
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Lennyjoe

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Re: Go plan re-assessment should things get bad
« Reply #24 on: March 22, 2022, 09:26:15 PM »
Make friends with your neighbors.

My neighbors are sheep amongst the wolves.  At least 3 of the 4 are…