Poll

Who blew up Nord Stream 1 and 2?

Russians
9 (34.6%)
Germans
0 (0%)
USA
7 (26.9%)
Other power in europe
1 (3.8%)
Some non state actor
1 (3.8%)
China?
0 (0%)
Other
2 (7.7%)
No Clue
6 (23.1%)

Total Members Voted: 26

Author Topic: Who blew up Nord Stream 1 and 2?  (Read 4917 times)

Nick1911

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Who blew up Nord Stream 1 and 2?
« on: September 28, 2022, 10:23:29 PM »
Prediction time!

The Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines which connect Russian natural gas to continental Europe have developed significant leaks.  Seismic data suggests man made explosions were the cause. 

Who done it, and why?

Perd Hapley

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Re: Who blew up Nord Stream 1 and 2?
« Reply #1 on: September 28, 2022, 11:09:11 PM »
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zxcvbob

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Re: Who blew up Nord Stream 1 and 2?
« Reply #2 on: September 29, 2022, 12:51:11 AM »
I like Perd's reply :D  But Joe Biden said he was going to do this back in February; I think we should take him at his word on that. (would that be an act of war against Germany Denmark?)
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sumpnz

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Re: Who blew up Nord Stream 1 and 2?
« Reply #3 on: September 29, 2022, 01:37:57 AM »
LawDog makes a fairly compelling case for it being an accident caused by Russian negligence/incompetence.

K Frame

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Re: Who blew up Nord Stream 1 and 2?
« Reply #4 on: September 29, 2022, 06:23:19 AM »
I'm in the who cares camp.

Over the past several decades the US repeatedly warned Western Europe, especially Germany, not to get so goddamned cozy with, and dependent on, the Russians for their energy needs.

Now they're paying for that. Hard.

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Ron

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Re: Who blew up Nord Stream 1 and 2?
« Reply #5 on: September 29, 2022, 07:07:48 AM »
I'm in the who cares camp.


I'm in the who can really know camp.

All of our information comes from demonstrable liars in govmnt and media, so it's hard to make confident judgements. Even any "trustworthy" sources of information are hamstrung by the information chaos they're trying to sort through. Smokescreens, squid ink, fog of war, propaganda etc.

Everything is spy vs spy and all media is part of the battlespace. Our minds are part of the battlespace.



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MechAg94

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Re: Who blew up Nord Stream 1 and 2?
« Reply #6 on: September 29, 2022, 09:00:49 AM »
I think we will eventually know. 

I think it does matter considering the tensions being ramped up right now.  The democrat party was always the party that claimed to be anti-war, but the last couple of D Presidents seem to have few qualms about using it.  I am just concerned the current group in power assumes the worst consequences could never happen.  I hope we find there is no connection to the US, but I would be surprised by that. 

IMO, the better response to Russia using their fuel supply as leverage is to help our allies exploit competing fuel supplies (not just from the US) to lessen the importance of the Russian gas.  Since the Democrats are beholden to the "no fossil fuels" party line, they can't or won't touch that option.  They may not even consider it. 
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WLJ

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Re: Who blew up Nord Stream 1 and 2?
« Reply #7 on: September 29, 2022, 09:03:19 AM »


Why would Mexicans blow up the pipeline?
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Pb

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Re: Who blew up Nord Stream 1 and 2?
« Reply #8 on: September 29, 2022, 09:25:30 AM »
LawDog makes a fairly compelling case for it being an accident caused by Russian negligence/incompetence.

Where is that?  Thank you.

HankB

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Re: Who blew up Nord Stream 1 and 2?
« Reply #9 on: September 29, 2022, 09:29:00 AM »
. . .  The democrat party was always the party that claimed to be anti-war, but the last couple of D Presidents seem to have few qualms about using it.   . . .
Where do you get that? In modern times, Democrats have regularly supported wars, especially those where we have no obvious self-interest.  This includes pretty big wars like Truman in Korea and Johnson in Vietnam, down to Clinton sticking our noses in Somalia.

And if you say "Yeah, But . . . " and bring up Republicans - you'd be right. Even nominally good GOP Presidents have fouled up. (e.g., Reagan in Lebanon)

As for who blew up the pipeline - I dunno. Tucker had an interesting take, and given what Biden actually said in the past - it's plausible. Also factor in the interests of those running the competing pipeline from Scandinavia. I'm not sure what the Russians would have to gain by blowing up the pipelines, since they could just turn off the flow . . . unless they're playing some doublethink PR game and want to blame someone else for freezing the EU this winter with a gas cutoff. Or maybe Ukrainians did it, so Russia's threatened gas cutoff would no longer be a factor in receiving aid from NATO/EU countries; this last would be an incredibly "high risk" maneuver with dire consequences for Ukraine if it came out. (Russia false flag maybe?)

Bottom line is - right now, we don't know whodunnit, or if it was an accident. MAYBE sometime we'll find out. Maybe.
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sumpnz

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Re: Who blew up Nord Stream 1 and 2?
« Reply #10 on: September 29, 2022, 09:44:42 AM »
Where is that?  Thank you.

Fascistbook.

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Re: Who blew up Nord Stream 1 and 2?
« Reply #11 on: September 29, 2022, 09:55:18 AM »
funny how this occurred right after Russia gets pushed back in places and simultaneously with the referendum vote in the disputed territories
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WLJ

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Re: Who blew up Nord Stream 1 and 2?
« Reply #12 on: September 29, 2022, 10:08:16 AM »
4th leak found and Russia knows who to blame

Quote
the Russian foreign ministry said the blasts had occurred in "zones controlled by American intelligence".

Nord Stream: Sweden finds new leak in Russian gas pipeline
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63071552

NS 1 hasn't transported gas since Russia shut it down "for maintenance"

Quote
The Nord Stream 1 pipeline - which consists of two parallel branches - has not transported any gas since late August when Russia closed it down, saying it needed maintenance.

Can you say distraction? I knew you could.
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zxcvbob

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Re: Who blew up Nord Stream 1 and 2?
« Reply #13 on: September 29, 2022, 10:10:45 AM »
Where do you get that? In modern times, Democrats have regularly supported wars, especially those where we have no obvious self-interest.  This includes pretty big wars like Truman in Korea and Johnson in Vietnam, down to Clinton sticking our noses in Somalia.

You must have misread it, because that's what he was referring to.  The anti-war talk is just talk to trick young people into voting for them; they love war just as much as the neocons.
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sumpnz

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Re: Who blew up Nord Stream 1 and 2?
« Reply #14 on: September 29, 2022, 10:31:07 AM »
Where is that?  Thank you.

Quote from: LawDog on Facebook
Ok, the Nord pipeline incidents.

Sigh. I shouldn't do this, but ...

I call them "incidents" for a reason. I grew up in overseas oilfields. I try to, by training, observe everything from as objectively neutral a viewpoint as possible.

In my experience when anything involving energy-industry hydrocarbons explodes ... well, sabotage isn't the first thing that comes to mind. And honestly, when it comes to a pipeline running natural gas under Russian (non)maintenance, an explosion means that it's Tuesday. Or Friday. Or another day of the week ending in "y".

"But, LawDog," I hear you say, "It was multiple explosions!"

Yes, 17 hours apart.

The Nord pipelines weren't in use. To me, that means it's time for maintenance! Hard to maintain pipes when product is flowing.

Pipelines running methane, under saltwater, require PMCS* quicker than you'd think, and more often than you'd believe.

I would bet a cup of coffee that any of the required weekly and monthly checks and services since the Russians took over have been pencil-whipped. (See Andreev Bay 1982.)

They officially shut it down in July of 2020 for maintenance, and had cornbread hell getting it back on-line, and "issues" with maintaining flow throughout the next year; shut it down again in July of 2021, with bigger "issues" -- we say "issues" because the Russians won't explain what these issues were -- and even more problems, including unexplained, major disruptions in gas flow in Dec21/Jan22; Feb 22; and April 22.

Yeah, there's problems with those lines. And these are the same folks that PMCS'd Chernobyl.

So. They've got pipelines with issues that are currently pressurised (with highly flammable, if not outright explosive, natural gas/methane), but not moving product. It's time to find out what those issues are.

And they blew up. My shocked face, let me show you it. Next time, tell Sergei to put out the cigarette before pulling a pressure test.

Is there a possibility of sabotage? Yeah. Especially in the current world situation -- but folks thought the Kursk went down because of hostile actions, too.

So, yes, hostile actions are a possibility, but mass amounts of explosive hydrocarbon gas + 300 feet down under salt water + shitty Russian maintenance = "Nobody could have possibly seen this coming", and yet another entry into the extensive Wikipedia page on "Soviet/Russian disasters".

*PMCS: Preventative Maintenance Checks and Services

.
.
.


Nord, part 2.

(Because I'm masochistic, that's why).

"But what issues could happen in an undersea pipeline that could cause ruptures?"

Oh, my sweet summer child. Many, many, many.

However, in this case involving a natural gas pipeline under the pressure of 300 to 360 feet (8.85 atmospheres to 10.6 atm.) of water, I'd like you to turn your eyes towards a fun little quirk of nature called "methane hydrates".

Well, actually, I'd like you to meditate upon "hydrate plug", but give me a moment.

Under certain circumstances of pressure, temperature, and water presence natural gas/methane will form solid hydrates, with concomitant amounts of fun.

For the Chinese definition of fun, anyway.

Keeping hydrates from forming is a constant battle, requiring vigilance, expertise, diligence, and constant water removal. If any of these things slack at any time -- you're getting hydrate formation.

The presence of solid hydrates in a pipeline can cause flow issues (causing cracks), destabilize the pipe itself (more cracks), and cause fires (bad. Very Bad), but the big issue (pun intended) is when you form enough hydrates that it blocks the pipe entirely (see: Hydrate plug, above).

A hydrate plug is one massive pain in the ass to remove, and removal of said hydrate plugs is not a task to be undertaken by idiots, rank amateurs, morons, the terminally unlucky, or stupid people.

The Recommended Best Practice to clear a hydrate plug is a vvveeerryyy slllooowww depressurisation from BOTH ENDS, SIMULTANEOUSLY.

As the line reaches one standard atmosphere, heat is transferred to the plug from the environment, and the plug begins to melt, starting at the plug/wall interface.

However, if you are a national gas company with institutional paranoia, a Nationalised aversion to looking weak or asking for help, and a Good Idea Fairy fueled by vodka -- well, you can depressurise the pipe from one end.

The hydrate plug will still melt at the plug/wall junction, but when it does, the pressurised side will launch the plug (five feet in diametre, and the same density as water ice) at almost 200 miles an hour down the pipe towards the depressurised side.

When this plug bullet hits a bend in the pipe -- well, it doesn't stop, nor does it change direction easily. It's going to make a hole.

What's even more fun is when somebody figures out what's happening and slams the valves closed ahead of that fast-moving plug. It's called the Diesel Effect, and it's basically a large amount of lovely, flammable natural gas suddenly compressed well above the ignition point between a fast-moving chunk of hydrate and a closed valve.

Boom. Big bada-boom.

Another fun thing that occurs to usually-intelligent people is to "gently warm the area of pipe where the plug is".

Don't do this. Methane hydrates disassociate really, really rapidly in the presence of heat. A pocket of gas will form somewhere inside the plug, next to the pipe wall, and the massive, localised pressure increase will rupture the pipe, spilling vapourised natural gas all over your heat source. (See "Bada-boom, above.)

Finally, for some reason, bureaucrats, politicians, amateurs, the alcohol-inspired, and idiots (but I repeat myself) always want to "Just blow that *expletive deleted*ing plug out of the pipe".

Don't do this. Ever. Just ... don't.

charby

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Re: Who blew up Nord Stream 1 and 2?
« Reply #15 on: September 29, 2022, 10:52:12 AM »
I'm guessing sub-par construction and lack of maintenance. Just like a lot of infrastructure here.
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Re: Who blew up Nord Stream 1 and 2?
« Reply #16 on: September 29, 2022, 11:27:56 AM »
If you search “Russian oil field accidents” on YouTube you get a bunch of videos on Russian oil workers getting killed on the job. Their safety practices are basically nonexistent.
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Re: Who blew up Nord Stream 1 and 2?
« Reply #17 on: September 29, 2022, 11:32:57 AM »
Speaking as someone who does not know diddly squat about natural gas pipelines, I learned a lot from LawDog's post and can see how perhaps this was shoddy Russian maintenance work.
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HankB

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Re: Who blew up Nord Stream 1 and 2?
« Reply #18 on: September 29, 2022, 11:44:02 AM »
Speaking as someone who does not know diddly squat about natural gas pipelines, I learned a lot from LawDog's post and can see how perhaps this was shoddy Russian maintenance work.
I have the same lack of experience in natural gas pipelines as Millcreek.  But in reading the explanation, I understand ruptures, but I'm not sure where the explosions come from unless there's oxygen in the pipeline. Dieseling? Even diesels need regular air, not just diesel vapors to work, don't they?

Allowing air or oxygen into a methane pipeline seems remarkably unstable to me . . . and I don't see where that would come from underwater.

Not doubting the explanations, it's just that there seems to be some information missing that may be obvious to a petrochemical engineer, but isn't to me.
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Nick1911

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Re: Who blew up Nord Stream 1 and 2?
« Reply #19 on: September 29, 2022, 11:46:31 AM »
I have the same lack of experience in natural gas pipelines as Millcreek.  But in reading the explanation, I understand ruptures, but I'm not sure where the explosions come from unless there's oxygen in the pipeline. Dieseling? Even diesels need regular air, not just diesel vapors to work, don't they?

Allowing air or oxygen into a methane pipeline seems remarkably unstable to me . . . and I don't see where that would come from underwater.

Not doubting the explanations, it's just that there seems to be some information missing that may be obvious to a petrochemical engineer, but isn't to me.

I'm right there with you.

He did mention the possibility of a kinetic event when the plug dislodges.  I do not know if the seismic analysis would show "it looks like an explosion" if this were the root cause, though.

WLJ

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Re: Who blew up Nord Stream 1 and 2?
« Reply #20 on: September 29, 2022, 11:47:48 AM »
If a "maintenance" accident it seems like it would be pretty easy to back track to see if any Russian pipeline maintenance ships were in the area.
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ConstitutionCowboy

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Re: Who blew up Nord Stream 1 and 2?
« Reply #21 on: September 29, 2022, 11:52:13 AM »
Anybody got a match?  [popcorn]

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dogmush

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Re: Who blew up Nord Stream 1 and 2?
« Reply #22 on: September 29, 2022, 11:57:58 AM »
If there's  a methane hydrate involved there's water in that that can disassociate to free oxygen.  For that matter, if the rupture is energetic enough, it could probably free some oxygen from the surrounding water.

MechAg94

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Re: Who blew up Nord Stream 1 and 2?
« Reply #23 on: September 29, 2022, 12:24:48 PM »
Where do you get that? In modern times, Democrats have regularly supported wars, especially those where we have no obvious self-interest.  This includes pretty big wars like Truman in Korea and Johnson in Vietnam, down to Clinton sticking our noses in Somalia.

And if you say "Yeah, But . . . " and bring up Republicans - you'd be right. Even nominally good GOP Presidents have fouled up. (e.g., Reagan in Lebanon)

As for who blew up the pipeline - I dunno. Tucker had an interesting take, and given what Biden actually said in the past - it's plausible. Also factor in the interests of those running the competing pipeline from Scandinavia. I'm not sure what the Russians would have to gain by blowing up the pipelines, since they could just turn off the flow . . . unless they're playing some doublethink PR game and want to blame someone else for freezing the EU this winter with a gas cutoff. Or maybe Ukrainians did it, so Russia's threatened gas cutoff would no longer be a factor in receiving aid from NATO/EU countries; this last would be an incredibly "high risk" maneuver with dire consequences for Ukraine if it came out. (Russia false flag maybe?)

Bottom line is - right now, we don't know whodunnit, or if it was an accident. MAYBE sometime we'll find out. Maybe.
I don't disagree with you.  Just that most anti-war protestors and such have always been in the Dem party even though a lot of Dem politicians are not anti-war and have started a lot of low level wars that expanded.

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Re: Who blew up Nord Stream 1 and 2?
« Reply #24 on: September 29, 2022, 12:26:57 PM »
Anybody got a match?  [popcorn]

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