Israel Under Attack

[dogmush]

Yes... and the Western world is extremely atypical in that it is not very tribal at all. Which explains why we are willing to take immigrants from the most horrible cultures on Earth, and to pretend that they are just like us.  Witness the massive demonstrations in support of Hamas in some Western cities.

The immigration policies in the West are suicidal.

The west is pretty impressively tribal, we just don't tend to be ethnically tribal.  An d that's a recent thing.  Irish/German/Scandinavian/Chinese/Korean tribalism all the way down to enclaves they all lived in was a real thing until 50 years ago.  These days the obvious flippant observation would be to say wear a MAGA hat in Portland and let me know how the tribalism goes, but there are more throughout are whole history.  Protestant/Catholic is another obvious one in the history of the west.  In America, North/South is still a thing, as is Urban/Rural.  There's a TON of smaller "sub" tribes among our youth that are virulently cruel to each other.  Racial Tribes are on the rise all throughout the US and Western Europe.

They like to pretend they aren't, but the West is every bit as tribal as everyone else.  It's less obvious because we aren't, yet, at the point of civil unrest where tribal violence is tolerated and encouraged, but the tribal drive is just as strong in Skye the Blue-haired College girl as it is in Mohammad the Goat Herd.

My position is I don't support sending dogmush and his colleagues to potentially die defending, or supporting offensive actions in Israel.

I appreciate that.  I'm still hoping for a the next war to have good weather and alcohol.  Don't the British Virgin Islands need some more Democracy^tm?

[Angel Eyes]

One side benefit of the current war: it's bringing out the online anti-semites.

https://twitter.com/Never_Again2020/status/1712898912573370695

[WLJ]

The west is pretty impressively tribal, we just don't tend to be ethnically tribal.  An d that's a recent thing.  Irish/German/Scandinavian/Chinese/Korean tribalism all the way down to enclaves they all lived in was a real thing until 50 years ago.  These days the obvious flippant observation would be to say wear a MAGA hat in Portland and let me know how the tribalism goes, but there are more throughout are whole history.  Protestant/Catholic is another obvious one in the history of the west.  In America, North/South is still a thing, as is Urban/Rural.  There's a TON of smaller "sub" tribes among our youth that are virulently cruel to each other.  Racial Tribes are on the rise all throughout the US and Western Europe.

They like to pretend they aren't, but the West is every bit as tribal as everyone else.  It's less obvious because we aren't, yet, at the point of civil unrest where tribal violence is tolerated and encouraged, but the tribal drive is just as strong in Skye the Blue-haired College girl as it is in Mohammad the Goat Herd.

I would argue the west has been more nationalistic than tribal the past ~150+ years but also that the left seems to be determined to reverse that hiding it under a veil of internationalism. We've already seen some fruits of that effort with the US becoming increasing more divided into ltribal like groups centered on race, sexual orientation, environmentalism, political views, economics, etc... And they've done a pretty good job of turning those groups against each other.

[WLJ]

Videos supposedly showing Hamas blocking convoys trying to leave Gaza

Hamas 'stops civilians escaping northern Gaza' as hundreds of thousands flee for their lives: Israeli military says terrorists are blocking convoys as Netanyahu tells soldiers 'the next stage is coming' with UN warning Gaza is 'being pushed into an abyss'
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12632439/Hamas-stops-civilians-escaping-northern-Gaza-hundreds-thousands-flee-lives-Israeli-military-says-terrorists-blocking-convoys-Netanyahu-tells-soldiers-stage-coming-warning-Gaza-pushed-abyss.html

[dogmush]

I saw a video on OSINT this morning of a VBIED blowing up in trafic and closing one of the bridges out of Gaza.  It certainly seems like someone is intent on stopping any evacuation.

[WLJ]

I saw a video on OSINT this morning of a VBIED blowing up in trafic and closing one of the bridges out of Gaza.  It certainly seems like someone is intent on stopping any evacuation.

May be the same one I saw where Hamas is claiming Israel blew up the vehicle and attacking the escape routes. I wouldn't put it pass Hamas to be doing it themselves to block people from escaping and thus give Hamas more bodies to hide behind and  attempt to frame Israel both for blocking the escape routes and and killing civilians

[dogmush]

I can think of no credible reason the IDF would tell people to evacuate, postpone the invasion for folks to evacuate giving Hamas time to prepare defenses, then attack the evacuation convoys.

Also not sure how or why the IDF would use a VBIED that originated in Gaza for such a hypothetical attack

Hamas, on the other hand, has a very clear motive to keep civilians in Gaza, and existing IED resources in Gaza.

[WLJ]

I can think of no credible reason the IDF would tell people to evacuate, postpone the invasion for folks to evacuate giving Hamas time to prepare defenses, then attack the evacuation convoys.

Also not sure how or why the IDF would use a VBIED that originated in Gaza for such a hypothetical attack

Hamas, on the other hand, has a very clear motive to keep civilians in Gaza, and existing IED resources in Gaza.

Excacty

But on the car matter if the car blew up by VBIED vs missile Hamas knows that much of the media either can't tell the difference or don't care and will run with Hamas's narrative.

[Pb]

They like to pretend they aren't, but the West is every bit as tribal as everyone else.

I don't think that's really true, though I suppose it is a matter of degree, rather than kind.  The WEIRDest People in the World: How the West Became Psychologically Peculiar and Particularly Prosperous Joseph Henrich is very interesting book on the issue.

[Ron]

The immigration from '68 onward destroyed the remains of American tribalism that was already in decline.

We are not a people or tribe of one nation, but many peoples from many nations. There isn't even the counterfeit tribalism of civic nationalism left anymore. Turns out the idea of a propositional nation is a lie.

Prepare for chaos as the USA becomes every tribe, every man for himself and everything that hasn't broken yet will eventually stop working.

So yes, the USA is tribal, it has many many tribes and they don't all get along. End stage empire stuff.

[Hawkmoon]

May be the same one I saw where Hamas is claiming Israel blew up the vehicle and attacking the escape routes. I wouldn't put it pass Hamas to be doing it themselves to block people from escaping and thus give Hamas more bodies to hide behind and  attempt to frame Israel both for blocking the escape routes and and killing civilians

That was my first (and only) thought on these reports.

[K Frame]

I love how so many on the "Israel is evil" path keep saying that Israel is killing innocent people in Gaza.

Gazans elected Hamas to power in 2006.

They put into power a terrorist organization that has repeatedly attacked Israel by targeting civilians, including women and children.

Gazans are responsible for the recent Hamas attack by allowing the organization to come to, and maintain power.

It is, in many ways, how Stalin saw it as the Red Army approached Germany... Only the unborn are innocent.

[JTHunter]

I wouldn't put it pass Hamas to be doing it themselves to block people from escaping and thus give Hamas more bodies to hide behind and  attempt to frame Israel both for blocking the escape routes and and killing civilians.

Various sources have had similar opinions on that probability. 

[cordex]

I am perfectly clear who has initiated this latest round of killing (and so many before). I will in no way assuage the guilt of the men who planned the attack or the people who chose them to head down that road, but I’m also not so blinded by hate that I can’t hurt for the innocent people that will die or have their already difficult lives shattered because of the Israeli response.

Or the children that will grow up hating the Jew for their pain and loss enough to restart the cycle of violence as soon as they come of age.

Like Ukraine there will be no winners to this war.

[JTHunter]

I am perfectly clear who has initiated this latest round of killing (and so many before). I will in no way assuage the guilt of the men who planned the attack or the people who chose them to head down that road, but I’m also not so blinded by hate that I can’t hurt for the innocent people that will die or have their already difficult lives shattered because of the Israeli response.

Or the children that will grow up hating the Jew for their pain and loss enough to restart the cycle of violence as soon as they come of age.

Like Ukraine there will be no winners to this war.

Well put.

[dogmush]

It is, in many ways, how Stalin saw it as the Red Army approached Germany... Only the unborn are innocent.

So Israel is operating on Stalin's philosophy?   Might not be the win you intended.


Palestine and Israel are at war. They have been for quite some time.  In war ( every war, for all time ) civilians have been killed, because that's how the world works.  Sometimes they are targeted to attempt to convince the other country to give up, sometimes they just catch collateral rounds.

This is how the world works.  The west needs to stop trying to ascribe Good and Evil to it.

[cordex]

Interesting translation and analysis of the Hamas OPORD:
https://ryanmcbeth.substack.com/p/inside-the-hamas-operations-order

[K Frame]

"So Israel is operating on Stalin's philosophy?   Might not be the win you intended."

Did I say they were? Do I think they are?

No.

It's pretty obvious that they are not given that they're providing pre-strike warnings and have issues warnings to Gazans to evacuate.

It's my evaluation that there are no "innocent" Gazans.

[dogmush]

Interesting translation and analysis of the Hamas OPORD:
https://ryanmcbeth.substack.com/p/inside-the-hamas-operations-order

That was interesting.  Thank you.  I'm going to throw him $5 for that one.

[WLJ]

Yeah, it's been pretty clear this operation was not something they cobbled together in an afternoon.

Now what has got me wondering is that they had to know what Israel's reaction was going to be so do they have a phase 2 waiting in the wings? I find it hard to believe that with all the time and care they took in planning this that their plan was to just kill some civilians and take hostages thus triggering a reaction from Israel and then just run back to Gaza to hide and wait. What have they got waiting ?

[dogmush]

Yeah, it's been pretty clear this operation was not something they cobbled together in an afternoon.

Now what has got me wondering is that they had to know what Israel's reaction was going to be so do they have a phase 2 waiting in the wings? I find it hard to believe that with all the time and care they took in planning this that their plan was to just kill some civilians and take hostages thus triggering a reaction from Israel and then just run back to Gaza to hide and wait. What have they got waiting ?

They are going to attempt to draw the IDF into a protracted urban engagement that will go a long way towards nullifying the IDF's advantages in armor and air power.  If they can tie down a bunch of the IDF and deny them the ability to maneuver, ideally in close terrain that counters the IDF's sensor superiority they can inflict quite a bit of damage with infantry, light weapons and IEDs.  They are also doing it on their home field, where they've had plenty of time to prep the battlefield, build defenses and choke points, and plan ambushes.

On the Strategic front if they get the IDF to engage in Gaza, and kill a bunch of non-combatants (say non-combatants that were prevented from leaving by VBIED attacks at border chokepoints) they think they it's likely they can draw other Arab countries into the war, giving the Palestinians enough allies to defeat Israel, and take a good portion of the Southern Israel to make a new country.

ETA  For some perspective: The Second battle of Fallujah is a decent corollary.  It was an Urban battle between a modern technological force vs. a much lighter equipped force of irregulars (armed by Iran) in a city the insurgents had had time to prepare defenses in.  It's obviously much smaller.  Fallujah is 25 sqkm, where as Gaza City alone is 45 sqkm and the whole Strip is 365 sqkm.  Fallujah took 13,000 Coalition troops two weeks to mostly secure, and another month after that to actually secure, against ~4500 insurgents. We could also effect a 100% blockade of Fallujah, where as Gaza has a coast and an Egyptian border that is much harder to close.  Hamas has, at best estimate, 30,000-40,000 fighters in Gaza, and a metric shitton of explosives and small arms. The IDF has a bit under 200,000 active forces, and a bit under 500,000 Reservists.  Hamas thinks they can lure the IDF into a big enough incursion that they can pin down and destroy a good portion of it in the favorable terrain. 

[Ben]

I'm finding it interesting that the FBI and administration are both publicly stating credible Hamas related domestic terror threats. Given their history, I would have expected them to downplay the threat.

https://www.theepochtimes.com/us/fbi-warns-of-domestic-threats-linked-to-israel-hamas-war-urges-law-enforcement-to-watch-out-for-lone-actors-5510416

[WLJ]

I'm finding it interesting that the FBI and administration are both publicly stating credible Hamas related domestic terror threats. Given their history, I would have expected them to downplay the threat.

https://www.theepochtimes.com/us/fbi-warns-of-domestic-threats-linked-to-israel-hamas-war-urges-law-enforcement-to-watch-out-for-lone-actors-5510416

Someone in the admin will be along shortly to issue a statement that they meant to say white supremacists

[WLJ]

Which reminds me.
Has anyone tired to compare this to J6 yet? We all know J6 was much worse.

[bedlamite]