Author Topic: Geomagnetic storm alert issued 5-10-24  (Read 1198 times)

WLJ

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Geomagnetic storm alert issued 5-10-24
« on: May 10, 2024, 08:49:10 AM »
Got a big one, several actually, on the way.

https://www.spaceweather.com/

Quote
ARE WE ABOUT TO EXPERIENCE A NEW CARRINGTON EVENT? No. AR3664 is indeed a 'Carrington-class' sunspot, but the CMEs it hurled toward Earth over the past few days are not as potent as the monster CME of Sept. 1, 1859. NOAA says we might experience a severe geomagnetic storm when the CMEs arrive this weekend. If geomagnetic storms were hurricanes, 'severe' would be category 4. The Carrington Event was category 5 or greater. So this is no Carrington Event. Even so, category 4 is pretty intense--if it happens. Stay tuned for some great auroras! Aurora alerts: SMS Text

FIVE CMEs ARE HEADING FOR EARTH: Great sunspot AR3664 has hurled an astonishing five CMEs toward Earth. They're all in this frenetic 2-day coronagraph movie from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO)
...

The two bright objects are Jupiter (left) and Venus (right). The CMEs will miss those planets and hit Earth instead.

According to a NOAA forecast model, the first three CMEs could merge for form a "Cannibal CME." Cannibal CMEs form when fast-moving CMEs overtake and gobble up slower CMEs in front of them. Internal shock waves created by such CME collisions do an good job sparking geomagnetic storms when they strike Earth's magnetic field.

The Cannibal CME is expected to arrive on May 11th. It alone could spark a strong (G3) geomagnetic storm. With two more CMEs following close behind, storm levels could become extreme (G4), sparking auroras at mid- to low-latitudes across Europe and the USA.
:
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Ben

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Re: Geomagnetic storm alert issued 5-10-24
« Reply #1 on: May 10, 2024, 09:09:07 AM »
The one thing to remember about "category 4 vs category 5" is that the Carrington event occurred in a time pre-sensitive electronics. The simple electronics of the time were affected, but also easily repaired / brought back online. Who knows where the line is, but I suspect the modern world will be majorly affected by something some degree more than we have experienced, but some degree less than Carrington.
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Kingcreek

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Re: Geomagnetic storm alert issued 5-10-24
« Reply #2 on: May 10, 2024, 10:41:18 AM »
Well it’s been nice visiting with you all.
I guess we all go Amish 05/11
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230RN

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Re: Geomagnetic storm alert issued 5-10-24
« Reply #3 on: May 10, 2024, 05:27:27 PM »
When they say "geomagnetic storms," does that mean actual, like, thunderstorms?  Will there be more, less, or no difference in "regular" atmospheric storm activity? 

If I had to guess, I'd expect that the extra excitation would tend to dissipate the atmospheric charges causing lightning, so there'd be fewer lightning strokes across the planet.

Yes, no, maybe?

Pardon my ignorance.

Terry, 230RN
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Ben

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Re: Geomagnetic storm alert issued 5-10-24
« Reply #4 on: May 10, 2024, 06:28:51 PM »
It's supposed to be good naked eye viewing in my AO, starting at dusk. They don't mention if it's civil, nautical, or astronomical, so that can mean anything from 2130-2300 this time of year. Tough going for a dude who's normally in the rack by 2130.  :laugh:
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Tuco

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WLJ

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Re: Geomagnetic storm alert issued 5-10-24
« Reply #6 on: May 10, 2024, 09:17:33 PM »
G5

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Ben

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Re: Geomagnetic storm alert issued 5-10-24
« Reply #7 on: May 10, 2024, 09:24:17 PM »
For kicks I'm going to start randomly checking my GPS error. A G5 storm could bump error up towards the old selective availability days of the '90s.
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WLJ

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Re: Geomagnetic storm alert issued 5-10-24
« Reply #8 on: May 10, 2024, 09:28:58 PM »
"Sometimes I think the surest sign that intelligent life exists elsewhere in the universe is that none of it has tried to contact us".
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cordex

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Re: Geomagnetic storm alert issued 5-10-24
« Reply #9 on: May 10, 2024, 09:31:27 PM »
Oh cool, I might get to see … nope, cloudy.

Hawkmoon

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Re: Geomagnetic storm alert issued 5-10-24
« Reply #10 on: May 10, 2024, 09:47:23 PM »
Oh cool, I might get to see … nope, cloudy.

Raining.

Bummer.
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WLJ

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Re: Geomagnetic storm alert issued 5-10-24
« Reply #11 on: May 10, 2024, 10:28:21 PM »
Any one blame climate change yet?


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zxcvbob

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Re: Geomagnetic storm alert issued 5-10-24
« Reply #12 on: May 10, 2024, 11:48:58 PM »
It should be spectacular here in Minnesota, but there's so much light pollution here I can barely even see any stars.  :mad:  Everyone has their overly-bright porch lights on, my neighbor has motion activated security flood lights that stay on most of the time, plus the city replaced the old street lights with LED fixtures that have a lot of light spill.  This used to be a really dark street just a couple of years ago and I could see the Milky Way on a clear night.
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230RN

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Re: Geomagnetic storm alert issued 5-10-24
« Reply #13 on: May 11, 2024, 01:54:58 AM »
40N, 105W  11:50 PM MDT nothing here, but 76% cloud cover.  Someone should have told the Weather Service to make sure it was clear tonight and tomorrow night.

I wonder what it looks like from the space station.

I guess I had a dumb question about atmospheric weather up above.

Terry, 230RN
WHATEVER YOUR DEFINITION OF "INFRINGE " IS, YOU SHOULDN'T BE DOING IT.

WLJ

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Re: Geomagnetic storm alert issued 5-10-24
« Reply #14 on: May 11, 2024, 08:10:26 AM »
Looking at sat images nearly the entire country was overcast
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Ben

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Re: Geomagnetic storm alert issued 5-10-24
« Reply #15 on: May 11, 2024, 08:34:05 AM »
I saw nothing at dusk, but when I got up at 0100 to pee (freakin' old age!) I looked out the window and saw greyscale action with my naked eye. I was too lazy to go outside though. I went out at 0430 this morning and couldn't see anything with my naked eye, but put on the NODs and got some video action. Obviously no colors under NODs, but (after a few seconds of gratuitous satellite footage) you can see some upward appearing motion of the EM storm.

https://youtu.be/e7Mqq8huyrU

I should have read up on photographing the aurora. I saw people posting some really cool color images from not too far away from me. Apparently the trick is a time exposure with a dSLR or night mode with a phone. Interestingly, I did use my phone (not on night mode), and when looking through the phonecam sensor, the (still greyscale) aurora was really going off, but in the photos I took, you can barely see anything.
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RocketMan

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Re: Geomagnetic storm alert issued 5-10-24
« Reply #16 on: May 11, 2024, 09:54:02 AM »
Family members got some good photos last night surprisingly enough.  I really didn't expect we'd see much this far south and was too lazy to go out and check.  I'm going to run up the hill a little tonight where the northern horizon is very visible.  Maybe I'll get lucky and see some remnants of the aurora.
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Ben

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Re: Geomagnetic storm alert issued 5-10-24
« Reply #17 on: May 11, 2024, 10:09:26 AM »
F'm going to run up the hill a little tonight where the northern horizon is very visible.  Maybe I'll get lucky and see some remnants of the aurora.

People only 100 miles NE of me were reporting "360deg auroras". From my place, it was only visible in the North. I'm going to try again tonight as well, and will try to suck it up and be out there at zero dark thirty.
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WLJ

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WLJ

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Re: Geomagnetic storm alert issued 5-10-24
« Reply #19 on: May 11, 2024, 11:35:23 AM »
Two G5s in rapid secession and so far no major problems that I've seen.
More storms on the way
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RocketMan

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Re: Geomagnetic storm alert issued 5-10-24
« Reply #20 on: May 11, 2024, 01:01:13 PM »
Damn that global warming.
If there really was intelligent life on other planets, we'd be sending them foreign aid.

Conservatives see George Orwell's "1984" as a cautionary tale.  Progressives view it as a "how to" manual.

My wife often says to me, "You are evil and must be destroyed." She may be right.

Liberals believe one should never let reason, logic and facts get in the way of a good emotional argument.

WLJ

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Re: Geomagnetic storm alert issued 5-10-24
« Reply #21 on: May 11, 2024, 01:11:36 PM »
Damn that global warming.

First an earthquake then an eclipse and now this. I guess when Betelgeuse blows we can finally sue the oil companies out of business.
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WLJ

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Re: Geomagnetic storm alert issued 5-10-24
« Reply #22 on: May 11, 2024, 01:41:50 PM »
Now we know the truth!

Clever: Jews Charging Up Space Laser Tell Everyone Those Are Just The Northern Lights
https://babylonbee.com/news/clever-jews-charging-up-space-laser-tell-everyone-those-are-just-the-northern-lights
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WLJ

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Re: Geomagnetic storm alert issued 5-10-24
« Reply #23 on: May 11, 2024, 02:53:03 PM »
Elon reporting some degraded service with Starlink. No other details.
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BobR

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Re: Geomagnetic storm alert issued 5-10-24
« Reply #24 on: May 11, 2024, 03:13:02 PM »
On another place I visit someone mentioned that they were 50 years old and this is the first time they saw the Aurora Australis and was wondering what caused them.

By far the most entertaining and surprisingly accurate answer was: It is the sun farting and the earth's atmosphere getting dutch ovened.

It somehow works.   :rofl:


bob