Author Topic: Assassin Drones  (Read 306 times)

WLJ

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Assassin Drones
« on: September 23, 2024, 02:38:59 PM »
Ed Nash looks at the threat of Assassin Drones. We're really not ready for this
While he's at it he also brings up some other attempts that have disappeared from the news. Don't remember the forklift guy.

Assassin Drones; We Need to Talk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C-4hbI_1b2o
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MechAg94

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Re: Assassin Drones
« Reply #1 on: September 23, 2024, 04:42:56 PM »
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9R4lfDLcRow
Here is one past incident that everyone forgets. 


In general, no I don't think we are ready for this.  I am a bit surprised we haven't seen someone screwing around.  Maybe rigging a drone to drop fake grenades or something that makes a bang on impact. 

As far as SS, you would think they would have some form of jammer available.  However, I think I heard jammers and overcoming jammers is part of the battle in Ukraine right now.
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dogmush

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Re: Assassin Drones
« Reply #2 on: September 23, 2024, 08:13:36 PM »
1. FPV drones are harder to fly, at least in ACRO mode (the mode that let's you be all fast and zippy) than a lot of people give them credit for.

2. Commercial drones, with all the stabilization stuff to be easy to fly, have all kinds of GPS enabled limitations,  including the FAA TFRs that are published.  You can get around them, but it's not trivial.

3. The USSS undoubtedly has drone defensive equipment.  I have no idea if it's a broad overwhelming jammer type, or a more directional jammer/drone hijacker device, or both. Both types exist, and are available to the US.gov.

4. Drones actually emit quite a bit of RF and are pretty easy t9 detect in the area with the right equipment.   That equipment is a bit much for every combat vehicle in Ukraine, but easily in the reach of even private security. I'll bet Taylor Swift's detail has it just for the paparazzi issue.

5. In addition to all of the above, you have to make a light, functional IED for your drone.  Again not impossible or even very hard, but not something anyone can just do and get right on the first try.


Taken together, it's not a zero threat, or even a super low one, but gett8ng an "Assassin Drone" close enough to kill a president or candidate is probably way harder than that video makes it seem.  But like the rifle shot, you only get one shot, and there's as much, or more, to go wrong with an Assassin Dr9ne as a 200ish yd rifle shot.

MechAg94

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Re: Assassin Drones
« Reply #3 on: September 24, 2024, 10:32:54 AM »
1. FPV drones are harder to fly, at least in ACRO mode (the mode that let's you be all fast and zippy) than a lot of people give them credit for.

2. Commercial drones, with all the stabilization stuff to be easy to fly, have all kinds of GPS enabled limitations,  including the FAA TFRs that are published.  You can get around them, but it's not trivial.

3. The USSS undoubtedly has drone defensive equipment.  I have no idea if it's a broad overwhelming jammer type, or a more directional jammer/drone hijacker device, or both. Both types exist, and are available to the US.gov.

4. Drones actually emit quite a bit of RF and are pretty easy t9 detect in the area with the right equipment.   That equipment is a bit much for every combat vehicle in Ukraine, but easily in the reach of even private security. I'll bet Taylor Swift's detail has it just for the paparazzi issue.

5. In addition to all of the above, you have to make a light, functional IED for your drone.  Again not impossible or even very hard, but not something anyone can just do and get right on the first try.


Taken together, it's not a zero threat, or even a super low one, but gett8ng an "Assassin Drone" close enough to kill a president or candidate is probably way harder than that video makes it seem.  But like the rifle shot, you only get one shot, and there's as much, or more, to go wrong with an Assassin Dr9ne as a 200ish yd rifle shot.
According to the Feds, all these mass shooters have explosive devices and made them using instructions on the internet. 


On the #4, I have been a bit surprised there isn't a pretty simple gun system to target and shoot down drones just tracking them on their emissions.  I assumed it must be harder than I thought.
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dogmush

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Re: Assassin Drones
« Reply #4 on: September 24, 2024, 10:56:30 AM »
On the #4, I have been a bit surprised there isn't a pretty simple gun system to target and shoot down drones just tracking them on their emissions.  I assumed it must be harder than I thought.

Detection is easy, there are even handheld or pocket sized broad spectrum "hey there's a drone here" type devices hitting the battlefields now.  There are also devices to listen into the video transmission (if unencrypted) so you can see where it is and is looking.

Shooting one down is trickier. You need either two linked DFing detectors with good separation, or some sort of active ranging device (RADAR, LIDAR, etc) than a guns, a powered turret, ammo source, and power source.  It pretty quickly becomes a something that is vehicle mounted, or at least transported, which limits it's usefulness to the Infantry and lone armored vehicles that are the main targets of frontline FPV type drones. 

Targets like that Russian ammo dump, or the Saudi Pipelines back in 2019 get autonomous drones with onboard targeting and position data, that are probably running dark RF wise, or a *very* narrow satcom transmission and so are harder to detect.

According to the Feds, all these mass shooters have explosive devices and made them using instructions on the internet. 


That's true, and they totally would have worked, and exploded not just fizzled, and were less than ~500 gram payload capacity that consumer drones have.  Nobody tested one, but trust them, those plans off the internet are good!

I'm half convinced that the FBI said the Butler shooter's IED would have worked because they were the FBI's plans, posted to entrap someone.


Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying drones aren't a threat, or that they could never be weaponized for assasinations.  As a Soldier who doctrine has hanging out within 10km of the Forward Edge of the Battle Area, drones and their emerging useage and doctrine terrify me.  But in the context of Lone Crazy Assassian in CONUS, there's some steep challenges.

French G.

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Re: Assassin Drones
« Reply #5 on: September 24, 2024, 12:30:28 PM »
I assume that at some point we get fpv drones that lock a visual target and terminal guide without external signal.

In a civilian landscape in ten years Amazon bots will be autonomously restocking the fridges of the elite. Israelis showed us how fun a man in the middle attack can be.
AKA Navy Joe   

I'm so contrarian that I didn't respond to the thread.

dogmush

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Re: Assassin Drones
« Reply #6 on: September 24, 2024, 02:32:35 PM »
Sure, That software could be written.  It already exists for .mil optically guided ordinance.  You still gotta get the drone within visual range, PID, and lock the target before hitting "Execute".  With a good drone camera, that's maybe 300yds or so.  500 at the outside if your target always wears something distinctive.  That's within the range of existing drone detectors, so even if it goes dark on terminal guidance, the targets will know you are there.

If I were going to be a really sneaky drone terrorist, I'd do a deep dive into Cell Phone communications, and what kind of signal they ping the tower with.  It's gotta have some kind of Identifier for what phone it is, and usually has the GPS coordinates in it.  Something that could decode and track that could theoretically passively track a target with high precision.  I don't know enough about commercial cell phone radio encryption to know if it would be an easy program or not, but every cell tower in every podunk country in the world can talk to my cell hone, so it can't be all that secure.

An example of cheap, easy drone surveillance you could carry this with you, or put it upon a building to monitor for drone control signals nearby:  https://www.ebay.com/itm/176257335592

For more money stuff like this exists in finished or kit form. https://ts2.store/en/anti-drone-systems/16024-sinton-stn-g3000-8-8-frequency-channel-anti-drone-gun.html?SubmitCurrency=1&id_currency=3&srsltid=AfmBOorzqWL28XnQKygqyW94WGemFSWMmQgOa9kmU8Ey7Ubkvm1G7cjLdAA

Perd Hapley

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Re: Assassin Drones
« Reply #7 on: September 24, 2024, 02:58:07 PM »
Would drones best be eliminated by using an attack drone, an attack drone of one's own?
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cordex

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Re: Assassin Drones
« Reply #8 on: September 24, 2024, 03:12:41 PM »
If I were going to be a really sneaky drone terrorist, I'd do a deep dive into Cell Phone communications, and what kind of signal they ping the tower with.  It's gotta have some kind of Identifier for what phone it is, and usually has the GPS coordinates in it.  Something that could decode and track that could theoretically passively track a target with high precision.  I don't know enough about commercial cell phone radio encryption to know if it would be an easy program or not, but every cell tower in every podunk country in the world can talk to my cell hone, so it can't be all that secure.
Historically that's been the realm of active MITM attacks like Stingray-type devices which tend to have to use lower-security protocols like 2G or 3G and have to force protocol downgrades to get to live location tracking for modern phones.  Stingrays can pull IMSI as clear text theoretically from 2G-4G.  Once you have IMSI you can do standard RF direction finding to find the location.

Pulling GPS coordinates would typically require full decryption of the Mobile/Network communication and I'm not aware of that being easily doable on 4G/5G networks.  5G actually conceals the IMSI (technically called a SUPI for 5G) with an encrypted SUCI, although I'm sure there are ways around it.  I'm pretty sure both 4G and 5G have mutual authentication which makes MITM much harder.

If they figured it out it would be worth a ton of money.

dogmush

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Re: Assassin Drones
« Reply #9 on: September 24, 2024, 04:02:51 PM »
I was kinda thinking that the actor would get the decryption keys either from the manufacturers (if actor is a first world nation-state) or by stealing them from someplace like "West Djibouti 5G wireless provider" (if actor is a non-nation state) rather than attempting to crack the encryption.

cordex

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Re: Assassin Drones
« Reply #10 on: September 24, 2024, 05:03:30 PM »
I guess I had something altogether different in mind when you said "sneaky drone terrorist".  Yeah, first world nation states are going to first world nation state and no mistake.

As far as stealing some sort of decryption keys from a little provider and using that to decrypt passively intercepted cell signals, I think the authentication process is a touch more complicated and robust than that.  For 4G/5G, the user equipment mutually authenticates cryptographically against the user's home network when it establishes the connection.  Even if you're roaming and the visited network routes the traffic, it is still end-to-end encrypted between the user equipment and their provider's core network. 

I don't think every podunk microcell or regional provider has a magic set of keys that decrypts everything.  You might be able to get a target's phone to communicate through your hardware, but because the visited network is not a trusted entity when it comes to the key exchange, they're not privy to the contents of the data exchange without cracking the encryption.  Or at least, that's the way it is supposed to work.

dogmush

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Re: Assassin Drones
« Reply #11 on: September 24, 2024, 08:57:55 PM »
Cool.  Learn something new everyday.

Question though.   I'm not really try8ng to decrypt the traffic. Just the some of the  metadata.  When i fire up my Verizon cell phone in South Africa, and someone in Florida calls my number, the local SA provider knows my phone is there, and routes the call to me in Johannesburg.

That would imply that at least my phone's identity is being given to the SA tower in a manner it can recognize,  so I can get the call, no?

For targeting data a signal that says " this is phone 867-5309" would be all you really need.

Now I really want to know what is 8n the signal you ping a tower with, and how encrypted is it.

cordex

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Re: Assassin Drones
« Reply #12 on: September 25, 2024, 05:55:47 AM »
It depends on protocol. We think of the difference between 2G, 3G, 4G and 5G as strictly performance based, but security features heavily into the differences too.

Older protocols use IMSI as plaintext. The earlier the protocol, the easier it is to get to unique IMSI, hence why Stingrays try to force protocol downgrades.

5G changes that game by using an encrypted temporary identifier that replaces the unique ID. The visited network then has to take that ID to the home network and ask them to decrypt and validate it within their core (and make sure your account is current, and that you have minutes, etc).

Even with IMSI you don’t get a target location directly, so you are back to having to use RF location finding (triangulation for direction, signal strength and timing advance for distance, or a mobile platform using signal strength and the mobile platform’s location to hone in) to feed your sneaky drone targeting solutions.  GPS/GLONASS/Galileo/BeiDou/QZSS/IRNSS based location data is encrypted along with other data.

On one of the servers at work I have tower-based phone triangulation data that the FBI’s CAST pulled from a cell provider on a criminal case. It is pretty good, but I’m not sure it is generally good enough for targeting a tiny attack drone.

Long story short, if you are extremely concerned about cell security, get an OS that lets you prevent protocol downgrade attacks and accept that you’re not going to have coverage where there aren’t modern networks.
« Last Edit: September 25, 2024, 10:55:52 AM by cordex »

Bogie

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Re: Assassin Drones
« Reply #13 on: September 25, 2024, 08:40:29 AM »
It isn't that hard to get a drone to fly somewhere. I suspect we're also going to see GPS targeting for "grid square eraser" types of attacks.
 
The hard part, for us at least, is locating the mortar rounds for them to drop.
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cordex

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Re: Assassin Drones
« Reply #14 on: September 25, 2024, 09:05:51 AM »
You don't need precise targeting to erase a grid square ...

dogmush

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Re: Assassin Drones
« Reply #15 on: September 25, 2024, 10:15:04 AM »
It isn't that hard to get a drone to fly somewhere. I suspect we're also going to see GPS targeting for "grid square eraser" types of attacks.
 
The hard part, for us at least, is locating the mortar rounds for them to drop.

It's going to take a LOT of drones to recreate an Arc Light.  That's not really what we're talking about here.