Author Topic: More Global Warming Skeptics  (Read 80612 times)

MechAg94

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Re: More Global Warming Skeptics
« Reply #75 on: May 20, 2007, 05:07:26 AM »
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Scientists aren't lobbyists.  They are researchers.
Only when they are fully funded.   laugh laugh
“It is much more important to kill bad bills than to pass good ones.”  ― Calvin Coolidge

wacki

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Re: More Global Warming Skeptics
« Reply #76 on: May 20, 2007, 08:26:49 AM »
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Scientists aren't lobbyists.  They are researchers.
Only when they are fully funded.   laugh laugh

I hear this argument so often but I'd love to see the empirical evidence for this.  Why exactly do you believe this?

cassandra and sara's daddy

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Re: More Global Warming Skeptics
« Reply #77 on: May 20, 2007, 06:10:26 PM »
history channel has a special on now about drastic climate change. interesting

richyoung

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Re: More Global Warming Skeptics
« Reply #78 on: May 21, 2007, 04:59:49 AM »
carebear, can't say I agree about the socialist asses thing, it may be true.

The worst case scenario thing is a problem I have too. I made reference above to the Gulf Stream and the various theories that have been posited that global warming could shut it down and thus radically shift the European climate, for the worse, extremely quickly.

More alarmist horsepucky.  The only way tot stop the Gulf Stream is to:

A.  Move the continents
B.  Empty the Atlantic Ocean.
C.  Stop the Earth from revolving about its axis.


Anyone who claims otherwise is either deliberately deceptive, or completely ignorant of the most basic Newtonian physics.

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richyoung

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Re: More Global Warming Skeptics
« Reply #79 on: May 21, 2007, 05:05:38 AM »
Scientists aren't lobbyists. 


The heck they aren't.  Nothing loosens the public purse strings like "You're all gonna DIE! .... .... .... (maybe.  We need $$$ to study it.)"  See: Ozone Hole.
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wacki

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Re: More Global Warming Skeptics
« Reply #80 on: May 21, 2007, 05:15:36 AM »
Scientists aren't lobbyists.


The heck they aren't.  Nothing loosens the public purse strings like "You're all gonna DIE! .... .... .... (maybe.  We need $$$ to study it.)"  See: Ozone Hole.

'I do not lobby for more climate funding. If you ask anyone who has actually interviewed me, they will say that what I say is "We don't need more research money to deal with the issue as to what needs to be done. ".' -Andrew Weaver Ph.D.

Btw your argument has been made before..... by the tobacco lobby.  As a side note here is a clip from one of my favorite movies:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aOyk-UwHiH4

Now doesn't your argument start to feel a little silly?

lots more countering this argument here:
http://www.logicalscience.com/skeptic_arguments/funding.html

richyoung

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Re: More Global Warming Skeptics
« Reply #81 on: May 21, 2007, 08:34:14 AM »
Scientists aren't lobbyists.


The heck they aren't.  Nothing loosens the public purse strings like "You're all gonna DIE! .... .... .... (maybe.  We need $$$ to study it.)"  See: Ozone Hole.

'I do not lobby for more climate funding. If you ask anyone who has actually interviewed me, they will say that what I say is "We don't need more research money to deal with the issue as to what needs to be done. ".' -Andrew Weaver Ph.D.

Btw your argument has been made before..... by the tobacco lobby.  As a side note here is a clip from one of my favorite movies:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aOyk-UwHiH4

Now doesn't your argument start to feel a little silly?

lots more countering this argument here:
http://www.logicalscience.com/skeptic_arguments/funding.html


Tris, Alar, "Unsafe at any speed", DDT, the Ozone Hole, "The Population Bomb", the 1970's 'Comming Ice Age"   AKA "The Catastrophic Cool-down" , Global Warming AKA "The Harrowing Heat-up", mercury in fish, Malthus,  "Acid Rain", eat margarine not butter, oops eat butter not margarine, brush your teeth sideways, brush your teeth up and down...no, I don't feel silly.  Who SHOULD feel silly is:

1.  Anyone denying that water vapor is the predominent driver of the greenhouse effect on Earth - to the tune of in excess of 90% WHEN the reflective nature of cloud formations is taken into acount - which it ISN'T by those citing a less than 90% figure, (I submit deliberately disengenuously....)
2.  Anyone making trend claims in excess of 2 decades for global temperature, when we only have 3 decades of good data for a phenomenon we already KNOW swings between periodic Ice Ages and warm periods.
3.  Anyone who thinks CO2 is a LEADING indicator of rising temperatures - it is a TRAILING indicator.  Watch what hapens to your soda as it heats up - the ocean works the same way.
4.  Anyone who thinks mankind can have anything more than a local, temporary effect on climate.
5.  Anyone who thinks Kyoto Treaty would have made a signifigant difference in global temperature
6.  Anyone who thinks elevated CO2 levels are harmful.
7.  Anyone who thinks slightly elevated night-time temperatures during the growing season are harmful.
8.  Anyone who thinks longer growing seasons that extend further north and south are harmful.
9.  Anyone who believes Al Gore's propaganda movie.
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Iain

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Re: More Global Warming Skeptics
« Reply #82 on: May 22, 2007, 01:21:32 AM »
We've been through all this before, nothing that anyone could post is ever going to change your mind. For the sake of those interested though, there are one or two things that should be said. I'm not going to bother citing everything I put down here because what I'm about to write is what the mainstream scientific (and non-scientific) opinion is. If you're interested research somewhere other than Milloy's junkscience (or any other rabidly anti-environmentalist source) will clarify. As such, these are not my opinions, nor are they based on my understanding, they are what the scientific community is saying.

DDT was never banned for anti-malarial purposes in developing countries. Its agricultural use was restricted to slow down the rapid spread of resistance.

The so-called ozone hole is a real issue. What is commonly called the 'ozone hole' was not first observed in the 1950's and the mechanism is well understood.

The 'Ice Age' issue has already been addressed multiple times in this thread. It was not a widespread prediction, nor was it a mainstream opinion - to compare it to the literature on global warming is disingenuous.

The rest of the claims about global warming are neatly discussed here

Again, as non-scientists, non-experts in these disciplines, it all comes down to who you choose to believe. Wacki?
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wacki

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Re: More Global Warming Skeptics
« Reply #83 on: May 22, 2007, 02:38:43 AM »
Tris, Alar, "Unsafe at any speed", DDT, the Ozone Hole, "The Population Bomb", the 1970's 'Comming Ice Age"   AKA "The Catastrophic Cool-down" , Global Warming AKA "The Harrowing Heat-up", mercury in fish, Malthus,  "Acid Rain", eat margarine not butter, oops eat butter not margarine, brush your teeth sideways, brush your teeth up and down...no, I don't feel silly.  Who SHOULD feel silly is:

Tris: I'm not familiar with that controversy and I used it almost every day during my thesis
Alar: um...... the scientists defended alar while meryl streep when on a rampage
Any speed: again don't know anything about it, sounds statistical.....
mercury: that's a real problem and anyone that denies it needs to get their head checked
Malthus: not familiar, enlighten me please?
Acid Rain: Not even senator inhofe denies this.  Are you really a skeptic on this?

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2.  Anyone making trend claims in excess of 2 decades for global temperature, when we only have 3 decades of good data for a phenomenon we already KNOW swings between periodic Ice Ages and warm periods.

Ever heard of ice cores?

Quote
3.  Anyone who thinks CO2 is a LEADING indicator of rising temperatures - it is a TRAILING indicator.  Watch what hapens to your soda as it heats up - the ocean works the same way.

This is one of my favorite tests to see if someone doesn't understand the simple mechanism of positive feedbacks.  Your argument is like saying the methane released by the permafrost when it melts isn't a greenhouse gas because the earth was heating before the permafrost melted.  It never ceases to amaze me when people admit there is more than one greenhouse gas yet the one that not only correlates most accurately with recent temp swings but checks out perfectly with simple black body physics has nothing to do with the temperature increase.




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6.  Anyone who thinks elevated CO2 levels are harmful.

May I suggest that you move to venus then?  mean temp: 482°C, lots of CO2

Also, to deny ocean acidification by carbonic acid (CO2 driven) and the mass extinctions that will follow is to deny/ignore concepts taught in highschool level chemistry.    So wherever you are getting your information from I would certainly check out another source.  Also lets not forget the largest extinction known in history (96% of all marine species and 70% of all terrestrial animal species) was driven not by an asteroid but hyperactive volcanoes emitting CO2.  Google: "Great Dying" Tied to Global Warming.

But if it makes you feel better, I'm not a fan of Al Gore or Kyoto.

wacki

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Re: More Global Warming Skeptics
« Reply #84 on: May 22, 2007, 02:55:04 AM »
Again, as non-scientists, non-experts in these disciplines, it all comes down to who you choose to believe. Wacki?

I really dislike asking this question.  We have only discussed the top 3 skeptics.  These are the best and most active skeptics in the world and yet one of them (Michaels) screwed up highschool level math and fraudulently edited Hansen's graphs.  I hope everyone here can agree on this.  Again, these are the top three.  Once you get away from these three the quality of the skeptics/deniers goes downhill at alarming speeds.  Most of these guys are remnants from the "tobacco doesn't cause cancer" industry campaign.

If you can't understand the science of climate change (which isn't that hard, time consuming yes, but not that hard) then I suggest people do a little research into the history of the skeptics and see if you want to trust someone that doesn't believe tobacco causes cancer.

wacki

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Re: More Global Warming Skeptics
« Reply #85 on: May 22, 2007, 02:59:58 AM »

3.  Anyone who thinks CO2 is a LEADING indicator of rising temperatures - it is a TRAILING indicator.  Watch what hapens to your soda as it heats up - the ocean works the same way.

A much more thorough retort than what I wrote earlier:
http://www.logicalscience.com/skeptic_arguments/lags-not-leads.html

Plenty of pictures as well as some scary stats.

Iain

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Re: More Global Warming Skeptics
« Reply #86 on: May 22, 2007, 03:12:05 AM »
wacki - that's essentially what I am saying. Even without going through any efforts to understand the basic science (and I have been doing so in recent months) one can fairly quickly ascertain where the debate amongst the scientific community is at. There isn't much debate scientifically about issues that are hotly debated amongst the public where the same names that you mention frequently occur.

To go back to Russell, I'm a non-expert and my formal science education ended (rather gloriously though) at 18, I can't hold too much as certain when I don't understand it. What I can do is question why the claims of Singer, Lindzen and others (notably Milloy) are so unquestioningly accepted by non-experts. They represent a tiny portion of the scientific community and they are very much out on a limb.

Without examining the science in detail, their minority position does not necessarily make them wrong, but it does mean (to me at least) that their opinion should be regarded as much less certain by non-experts than that to which they object.
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wacki

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Re: More Global Warming Skeptics
« Reply #87 on: May 22, 2007, 04:04:37 AM »
What I can do is question why the claims of Singer, Lindzen and others (notably Milloy) are so unquestioningly accepted by non-experts. They represent a tiny portion of the scientific community and they are very much out on a limb.

Here is a nice quote from milloy back when the ozone layer is controversial:

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The problem with this theory is that the chlorine molecules in Freon are heavier than air; they settle to the ground upon release - many tens of thousands of feet below the ozone layer.
- Freon Superstitions, Washington Times, May 18, 1999 Steven Milloy

While it is true that chlorine is heavier than air the difference isn't that great.  To give you an idea how meaningless the difference is, here is a satellite picture of a dust storm:




This dust will travel all the way across the atlantic and land in Panama.  Now, what is heavier sand or freon gas?  His argument is so dumb because you can just hop in a balloon and run a test for CFCs.  We have satellites that can see the CFCs in the upper atmosphere.  These are the kind of jarringly stupid mistakes these hacks make all the time.  So many of these 'consensus skeptics' are either incompetent scientists or incompetent liars.  And it amazes me that the public hasn't caught on to just how bad the skeptics are.  This is especially true when Exxon is giving out $10,000 rewards to anyone willing to debate climate change.  I think I've seen one, and only one, climate change skeptic that wasn't either incompetent or habitually misleading while actually engaging in scientific debate.  And yet these hacks get more airplay per person in mainstream news than the real scientists.

The Rabbi

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Re: More Global Warming Skeptics
« Reply #88 on: May 22, 2007, 04:31:47 AM »
But again, no one talks about how scientists get feted and get good press when they excoriate the Bush Administration for failing to ratify the piece of drekk known as Kyoto.
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richyoung

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Re: More Global Warming Skeptics
« Reply #89 on: May 22, 2007, 04:39:44 AM »
We've been through all this before, nothing that anyone could post is ever going to change your mind. For the sake of those interested though, there are one or two things that should be said. I'm not going to bother citing everything I put down here because what I'm about to write is what the mainstream scientific (and non-scientific) opinion is. If you're interested research somewhere other than Milloy's junkscience (or any other rabidly anti-environmentalist source) will clarify. As such, these are not my opinions, nor are they based on my understanding, they are what the scientific community is saying.

DDT was never banned for anti-malarial purposes in developing countries. Its agricultural use was restricted to slow down the rapid spread of resistance.

True - but disengenuous.  As explained in the American Council On Science and Health article, "THE DDT BAN TURNS 30  Millions Dead of Malaria Because of Ban, More Deaths Likely "  By Todd Seavey :


"WHO IS PREVENTING DDT USE?

Despite the cost in human lives, many groups stubbornly defend the ban. While the World Health Organization, the National Academy of Sciences, and UNICEF have recommended continued DDT use, influential organizations such as the Norwegian Development Agency, the Swedish International Development Agency, the Swedish Aid Agency, and USAID  the sorts of groups from whom some poor nations such as Belize, Mozambique, and Madagascar receive the majority of their public health money  continue to insist that DDT be left out of malaria-control efforts.

Countries have found themselves faced with malaria upsurges due to pressure from such international aid organizations to avoid DDT use, according to a report in the March 11, 2000 British Medical Journal. The use of DDT in Mozambique, noted the Journal, "was stopped several decades ago, because 80% of the country's health budget came from donor funds, and donors refused to allow the use of DDT."

The WHO estimates that malathion, the cheapest alternative to DDT, costs more than twice as much as DDT and must be sprayed twice as often, while another mosquito-fighting chemical, deltamethrin, is over three times as expensive, and the highly effective propoxur costs twenty-three times as much. For countries with minimal public health budgets, dependent on foreign aid, such substitutes are impractical. More importantly, there is no compelling public health reason to substitute these chemicals for DDT, which as stated is harmless to humans. "

So, de-facto, there IS a ban - and millions are dead - due to the same type of "Junk Science" that Global Warming is.  How many are we gonna kill for THAT false god?

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The so-called ozone hole is a real issue. What is commonly called the 'ozone hole' was not first observed in the 1950's and the mechanism is well understood.

The ozone hole is a NON-ISSUE.  It can only occur at the South Pole, at the end of the Polar night, due to the polar vortex and the required temps.  There is NOTHING at the South Pole to be effected by small increase in UV radiation, which, by the way, more UV hits the South Pole in the middle of the Polar Summer, due to the more favorable angle of incidence of the sunlight, DESPITE the lack of any "ozone hole".

Quote
The 'Ice Age' issue has already been addressed multiple times in this thread. It was not a widespread prediction, nor was it a mainstream opinion - to compare it to the literature on global warming is disingenuous.

Bubba, I lived through it.  It was on TV, in the Reader's Digest, in the Sunday newspaper suppliments - ALL OVER.  The only difference was there was SOME semblance of scientific restraint - unlike now.


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wacki

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Re: More Global Warming Skeptics
« Reply #90 on: May 22, 2007, 04:53:05 AM »
But again, no one talks about how scientists get feted and get good press when they excoriate the Bush Administration for failing to ratify the piece of drekk known as Kyoto.

I will admit that the mass media does push Kyoto.  But that is a political position the 'elite media' seems to love.  I personally can't stand the idea and even the people that designed Kyoto will now admit it isn't working and is flawed.

What I'm angry about is the fact that Pat Michaels can perform such an obvious acts of fraud (1: editing graphs to make Hansen look like he was wrong, 2: debunking climate models that simply don't exist ) and yet the media seems not only completely oblivious but gives this guy twice as much airtime as any other climatologist.  Then there is the fact that Milloy has a permanent position at Fox.  Or how about the fact that Scientific American has invited the editors of the Wallstreet Journal Editorial board for a discussion with top climatologists about how the climate works.  They gave the invitation to the WSJ because of the  countless crappy editorials they were printing.  The invitation has been open for several years and it has not been accepted.  6 months ago scientific american changed the invitation to a challenge. 

http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?chanID=sa006&articleID=000D5C47-C124-1509-805C83414B7FFDB0

Their challenge has still gone unanswered.  If that's not an obvious indication that the WSJ editorial board doesn't give a damn about truth then I don't know what is.  Yet amazingly, the public doesn't seem aware of just how bad the situation is.

wacki

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Re: More Global Warming Skeptics
« Reply #91 on: May 22, 2007, 04:54:47 AM »
Bubba, I lived through it.  It was on TV, in the Reader's Digest, in the Sunday newspaper suppliments - ALL OVER.  The only difference was there was SOME semblance of scientific restraint - unlike now.

I challenge you to find 1 single assessment report that predicted global cooling via the NAS, Scope, MIT, or some other scientific organization.  Good luck finding one.

http://www.wmconnolley.org.uk/sci/iceage/
http://logicalscience.blogspot.com/2006/11/wooden-stake-in-newsweeks-global.html

You need to separate the scientist from the media just like you separate the truth about firearms from the media.

richyoung

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Re: More Global Warming Skeptics
« Reply #92 on: May 22, 2007, 05:04:06 AM »
Tris, Alar, "Unsafe at any speed", DDT, the Ozone Hole, "The Population Bomb", the 1970's 'Comming Ice Age"   AKA "The Catastrophic Cool-down" , Global Warming AKA "The Harrowing Heat-up", mercury in fish, Malthus,  "Acid Rain", eat margarine not butter, oops eat butter not margarine, brush your teeth sideways, brush your teeth up and down...no, I don't feel silly.  Who SHOULD feel silly is:

Tris: I'm not familiar with that controversy and I used it almost every day during my thesis

Tris was chemical used to make fabric flame-resistant.  At one point, it was "alleged" to cause cancer (what doesn't?), so alarmed parents god rid of their child's pajamas, curtains, and bedclothes treated with Tris.  Result - extra deaths due to fire....


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Alar: um...... the scientists defended alar while meryl streep when on a rampage
Any speed: again don't know anything about it, sounds statistical.....

That was the book that made Ralph Nader famous - a slur upon the VW Beetle and the Chevy Corvair.  The Beetle survived the junk science attack - the Corvair didn't.

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mercury: that's a real problem and anyone that denies it needs to get their head checked

It may be a real problem, but it's NOT caused by industrial man.  Do the math - all the mercury ever used by man would fit easily into 30 box cars.  See the ocean?  See how big it is?  30 boxcars of ANYTHING is literaly a drop in the ocean.  Not to mention the fact that we GET mercury (and asbestos, and everything else...) from natural mineral deposits that are... constantly eroding into the sea.  How do we know that man is not the problem?  Because we went THROUGH this bullpucky already in the early 70's - it turned out that the women CLAIMING to get excess mercury from fish were eating fish to loose weight, and were also taking (and overdosing) on diuretics that containd...wait for it...MERCURY.  Top that off when archeologists found 10,000 year-old anchovy remains that had...  wait for it...  EXACTLY THE SAME LEVELS OF MERCURY AS MODERN ANCHOVIES.  That was enough tot put the stake in the heart of this PARTICULAR lie, until a few years ago, when it resurfaced.
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Malthus: not familiar, enlighten me please?

What?  Google not working?  Malthus was the dude that said civilization was doomed because if cities continued to grow in population, the inhabitants would be buried in horse manure above their heads due to the cartage requirements.  Among other stupidity.

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Acid Rain: Not even senator inhofe denies this.  Are you really a skeptic on this?

Some lakes are naturally acidic.  In those areas, little to no fish grow.  Guess what "Adirondack" means in English? It means "Bark eater".  See, the Indians living there had no fish in their acidic lakes, so they had to eat bark - and I'm fairly sure it wasn't due to all the pre-pilgrim coal-fired electric generators.  I * DO * recall it was the Canadians who made a big deal out of it - at the same time Canada had a huge surplus of hydroelectric power they wanted to sell south....things that make you go, "hmmm"...


Quote
Quote
2.  Anyone making trend claims in excess of 2 decades for global temperature, when we only have 3 decades of good data for a phenomenon we already KNOW swings between periodic Ice Ages and warm periods.

Ever heard of ice cores?


Yep.  Ice cores prove that CO2 is a trailing indicator of warming.  They are not precise enough to use for climate modeling, for a variety of reasons.

Quote
Quote
3.  Anyone who thinks CO2 is a LEADING indicator of rising temperatures - it is a TRAILING indicator.  Watch what hapens to your soda as it heats up - the ocean works the same way.

This is one of my favorite tests to see if someone doesn't understand the simple mechanism of positive feedbacks.  Your argument is like saying the methane released by the permafrost when it melts isn't a greenhouse gas because the earth was heating before the permafrost melted.  It never ceases to amaze me when people admit there is more than one greenhouse gas yet the one that not only correlates most accurately with recent temp swings

Repeat after me..."Correlation is NOT proof of caustation.  Correlation is NOT proof of a relationship."  Keep repeating until it sinks in...

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but checks out perfectly with simple black body physics has nothing to do with the temperature increase.


Big ball of fire in sky.  No thermostat. 


Quote
Quote
6.  Anyone who thinks elevated CO2 levels are harmful.

May I suggest that you move to venus then?  mean temp: 482°C, lots of CO2

CO2 is PLANT FOOD - they need it like we need oxygen.  Higher CO2 levels, greater drop yields.
[/quote]
Also, to deny ocean acidification by carbonic acid (CO2 driven) and the mass extinctions that will follow is to deny/ignore concepts taught in highschool level chemistry.    So wherever you are getting your information from I would certainly check out another source.  Also lets not forget the largest extinction known in history (96% of all marine species and 70% of all terrestrial animal species) was driven not by an asteroid but hyperactive volcanoes emitting CO2.  Google: "Great Dying" Tied to Global Warming.

But if it makes you feel better, I'm not a fan of Al Gore or Kyoto.
[/quote]

Perhaps you are unaware that CO2 levels have been many times the present level in the past with no ill effects for life?
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richyoung

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Re: More Global Warming Skeptics
« Reply #93 on: May 22, 2007, 05:13:12 AM »
Bubba, I lived through it.  It was on TV, in the Reader's Digest, in the Sunday newspaper suppliments - ALL OVER.  The only difference was there was SOME semblance of scientific restraint - unlike now.

I challenge you to find 1 single assessment report that predicted global cooling via the NAS, Scope, MIT, or some other scientific organization.  Good luck finding one.

I trust the National Science Board will do?

"[edit] 1974 and 1972 National Science Board
The Washington Post reports that in 1974 the National Science Board, the governing body of the National Science Foundation, stated:[13]

During the last 20 to 30 years, world temperature has fallen, irregularly at first but more sharply over the last decade.
This statement is correct (see Historical temperature record) although the Washington Post quotes it with disapproval. The Post says the Board had observed two years earlier:

Judging from the record of the past interglacial ages, the present time of high temperatures should be drawing to an end . . . leading into the next glacial age. "

Games, set, match.

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wacki

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Re: More Global Warming Skeptics
« Reply #94 on: May 22, 2007, 05:20:17 AM »
Games, set, match.

Why don't you paste the entire quote.  More specifically the sentence right after the words you quoted.

Judging from the record of the past interglacial ages, the present time of high temperatures should be drawing to an end ... leading into the next glacial age. However, it is possible, or even likely, than human interference has already altered the environment so much that the climatic pattern of the near future will follow a different path. . .

Certainly not a prediction of gloom and doom.  Just an exploration of possibilities.  The tone back then was v different than it is now.

wacki

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Re: More Global Warming Skeptics
« Reply #95 on: May 22, 2007, 05:28:45 AM »
richyoung,

You didn't make the distinction between mercury poisoning and human vs. natural emissions.  I'm not educated enough on mercury emissions to comment but mercury poisoning is a real problem.

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They are not precise enough to use for climate modeling, for a variety of reasons.

Ice cores are accurate for temperature reading to 1/9th of a degree C.  CO2 readings from the cores are accurate to less than 1 part per million.


Quote
Perhaps you are unaware that CO2 levels have been many times the present level in the past with no ill effects for life?

And exactly what time period are you talking about?  Certainly not at a time when humans were around.

I could say a lot more but I have work to do.

richyoung

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Re: More Global Warming Skeptics
« Reply #96 on: May 22, 2007, 05:39:35 AM »
Games, set, match.

Why don't you paste the entire quote.  More specifically the sentence right after the words you quoted.

Judging from the record of the past interglacial ages, the present time of high temperatures should be drawing to an end ... leading into the next glacial age. However, it is possible, or even likely, than human interference has already altered the environment so much that the climatic pattern of the near future will follow a different path. . .

Certainly not a prediction of gloom and doom.  Just an exploration of possibilities.  The tone back then was v different than it is now.


Yes.  You might remember I already noted more scientific restraint.  What you fail to acknowledge is that I have provided you with what you claim does not exist.
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wacki

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Re: More Global Warming Skeptics
« Reply #97 on: May 22, 2007, 05:42:29 AM »
Yes.  You might remember I already noted more scientific restraint.  What you fail to acknowledge is that I have provided you with what you claim does not exist.

Only on a technicality.  I should have used the word *imminent* like William Connolley does.  The challenge still stands.  The fact is the NAS, MIT, etc all said we where clueless.

then:
Unfortunately, we do not have a good quantitative understanding of our climate machine and what determines it's course. Without this fundamental understanding, it does not seem possible to predict climate-neither in short-term variations nor in any in its larger long-term changes.-The National Academy of sciences 1974
http://logicalscience.blogspot.com/2006/11/wooden-stake-in-newsweeks-global.html

Even Steven Schneider, the leader of the "global cooling movement" said:
...we just don't know enough to chose definitely at this stage whether we are in for warming or cooling--or when. -
http://stephenschneider.stanford.edu/Publications/PDF_Papers/Schneider1977.pdf

When even the leader of the 'conspiracy' says "we don't know" then I think you are very far off the mark by claiming the scientific community, as a whole, was wrong.




richyoung

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Re: More Global Warming Skeptics
« Reply #98 on: May 22, 2007, 06:33:38 AM »
richyoung,

You didn't make the distinction between mercury poisoning and human vs. natural emissions.  I'm not educated enough on mercury emissions to comment but mercury poisoning is a real problem.

Only if you are ODing on water pills - NOT from fish, and certainly NOT due to man.

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They are not precise enough to use for climate modeling, for a variety of reasons.

Ice cores are accurate for temperature reading to 1/9th of a degree C.  CO2 readings from the cores are accurate to less than 1 part per million.


Wrong0, me bucko.  See the following:

The ice-core man

LAWRENCE SOLOMON
Financial Post
LawrenceSolomon@nextcity.com

Once upon a time, and for millennia before then, carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere were low and stable. Then came the industrial revolution and CO2 levels began to rise. The more man industrialized, the more that CO2  and the temperature  rose. In the last half century, with industrialization at unprecedented levels, CO2 reached levels unprecedented in the human history. This is the story of global warming.

This story is a fable, says Zbigniew Jaworowski, past chairman of the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation, a participant or chairman of some 20 Advisory Groups of the International Atomic Energy Agency and the United Nations Environmental Program, and current chair of the Scientific Committee of the Central Laboratory for Radiological Protection in Warsaw.

Dr. Jaworowski agrees that CO2 levels rose in the last half century. Starting in 1958, direct, real-time measurements of CO2 have been systematically taken at a state-of-the-art measuring station in Hawaii. These measurements, considered the worlds most reliable, are a good basis for science by bodies like the UNs Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the agency that is co-ordinating the worldwide effort to stop global warming.

But the UN does not rely on direct real-time measurements for the period prior to 1958. The IPCC relies on icecore data  on air that has been trapped for hundreds or thousands of years deep below the surface, Dr. Jaworowski explains. These ice cores are a foundation of the global warming hypothesis, but the foundation is groundless  the IPCC has based its global-warming hypothesis on arbitrary assumptions and these assumptions, it is now clear, are false.

Ice, the IPCC believes, precisely preserves the ancient air, allowing for a precise reconstruction of the ancient atmosphere. For this to be true, no component of the trapped air can escape from the ice. Neither can the ice ever become liquid. Neither can the various gases within air ever combine or separate.

This perfectly closed system, frozen in time, is a fantasy. Liquid water is common in polar snow and ice, even at temperatures as low as -72C, Dr. Jaworowski explains, and we also know that in cold water, CO2 is 70 times more soluble than nitrogen and 30 times more soluble than oxygen, guaranteeing that the proportions of the various gases that remain in the trapped, ancient air will change. Moreover, under the extreme pressure that deep ice is subjected to  320 bars, or more than 300 times normal atmospheric pressure  high levels of CO2 get squeezed out of ancient air.

Because of these various properties in ancient air, one would expect that, over time, ice cores that started off with high levels of CO2 would become depleted of excess CO2, leaving a fairly uniform base level of CO2 behind. In fact, this is exactly what the ice cores show.

According to the ice-core samples, CO2 levels vary little over time, Dr. Jaworowski sates. The ice core data from the Taylor Dome in Antarctica shows almost no change in the level of atmospheric CO2 over the last 7,000 to 8,000 years  it varied between 260 parts per million and 264 parts per million.

Yet other indicators of past CO2 levels, such as fossil leaf stomata, show that CO2 levels over the past 7,000 to 8,000 years varied by more than 50 parts per million, between 270 and 326 parts per million. We also know that there have been great fluctuations in temperature over that time period  the Little Age just 500 years ago, for example. If the icecore record was reliable, and CO2 levels reflected temperatures, why wouldnt the ice-core data have shown CO2 levels to fall during the Little Ice Age? 

Dr. Jaworowski has devoted much of his professional life to the study of the composition of the atmosphere, as part of his work to understand the consequences of radioactive fallout from nuclear-weapons testing and nuclearreactor accidents. After taking numerous ice samples over the course of a dozen field trips to glaciers in six continents, and studying how contaminants travel through ice over time, he came to realize how fraught with error ice-core samples were in reconstructing the atmosphere. The Chernobyl accident, whose contaminants he studied in the 1990s in a Scandinavian glacier, provided the most illumination.

This ice contained extremely high radioactivity of cesium-137 from the Chernobyl fallout, more than a thousand times higher than that found in any glacier from nuclear-weapons fallout, and more than 100 times higher than found elsewhere from the Chernobyl fallout, he explained. This unique contamination of glacier ice revealed how particulate contaminants migrated, and also made sense of other discoveries I made during my other glacier expeditions. It convinced me that ice is not a closed system, suitable for an exact reconstruction of the composition of the past atmosphere.

Because of the high importance of this realization, in 1994 Dr. Jaworowski, together with a team from the Norwegian Institute for Energy Technics, proposed a research project on the reliability of trace-gas determinations in the polar ice. The prospective sponsors of the research refused to fund it, claiming the research would be immoral if it served to undermine the foundations of climate research.

The refusal did not come as a surprise. Several years earlier, in a peer-reviewed article published by the Norwegian Polar Institute, Dr. Jaworowski criticized the methods by which CO2 levels were ascertained from ice cores, and cast doubt on the global-warming hypothesis. The institutes director, while agreeing to publish his article, also warned Dr. Jaworowski that this is not the way one gets research projects. Once published, the institute came under fire, especially since the report soon sold out and was reprinted. Said one prominent critic, this paper puts the Norsk Polarinstitutt in disrepute. Although none of the critics faulted Dr. Jaworowskis science, the institute nevertheless fired him to maintain its access to funding.

Is there an alternative to ice-core samples, which are but proxies from which assumptions about the historical composition of the atmosphere can be made? Yes, there are several other proxies, and they lead to different findings about CO2, Dr. Jaworowski states. But we dont need to rely on proxies at all.

Scientists from numerous disciplines have been examining CO2 since the beginning of the 19th century, and they have left behind a record of tens of thousands of direct, real-time measurements. These measurements tell a far different story about CO2  they demonstrate, for example, that CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere have fluctuated greatly, and that several times in the past 200 years CO2 concentrations have exceeded todays levels.

The IPCC rejects these direct measurements, some taken by Nobel Prize winners. They prefer the view of CO2 as seen through ice.

Lawrence Solomon is executive director of Urban Renaissance Institute and Consumer Policy Institute, divisions of Energy Probe Research Foundation.



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Perhaps you are unaware that CO2 levels have been many times the present level in the past with no ill effects for life?

And exactly what time period are you talking about?  Certainly not at a time when humans were around.

That would kind of indicate that the level of CO2 can vary wildly WITHOUT human influence, nicht var?

Those who beat their swords into plowshares will plow for those who don't...

cassandra and sara's daddy

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Re: More Global Warming Skeptics
« Reply #99 on: May 22, 2007, 06:51:37 AM »
ouch laugh