Author Topic: Alarmist global warming claims melt under scientific scrutiny  (Read 1798 times)

Desertdog

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The truth will set you free and it looks like the truth is coming out.  High lights are mine.

Alarmist global warming claims melt under scientific scrutiny
http://www.suntimes.com/news/otherviews/450392,CST-EDT-REF30b.article
BY JAMES M. TAYLOR

In his new book, The Assault on Reason, Al Gore pleads, "We must stop tolerating the rejection and distortion of science. We must insist on an end to the cynical use of pseudo-studies known to be false for the purpose of intentionally clouding the public's ability to discern the truth." Gore repeatedly asks that science and reason displace cynical political posturing as the central focus of public discourse.
If Gore really means what he writes, he has an opportunity to make a difference by leading by example on the issue of global warming.

A cooperative and productive discussion of global warming must be open and honest regarding the science. Global warming threats ought to be studied and mitigated, and they should not be deliberately exaggerated as a means of building support for a desired political position.

Many of the assertions Gore makes in his movie, ''An Inconvenient Truth,'' have been refuted by science, both before and after he made them. Gore can show sincerity in his plea for scientific honesty by publicly acknowledging where science has rebutted his claims.

For example, Gore claims that Himalayan glaciers are shrinking and global warming is to blame. Yet the September 2006 issue of the American Meteorological Society's Journal of Climate reported, "Glaciers are growing in the Himalayan Mountains, confounding global warming alarmists who recently claimed the glaciers were shrinking and that global warming was to blame."

Gore claims the snowcap atop Africa's Mt. Kilimanjaro is shrinking and that global warming is to blame. Yet according to the November 23, 2003, issue of Nature magazine, "Although it's tempting to blame the ice loss on global warming, researchers think that deforestation of the mountain's foothills is the more likely culprit. Without the forests' humidity, previously moisture-laden winds blew dry. No longer replenished with water, the ice is evaporating in the strong equatorial sunshine."

Gore claims global warming is causing more tornadoes. Yet the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change stated in February that there has been no scientific link established between global warming and tornadoes.

Gore claims global warming is causing more frequent and severe hurricanes. However, hurricane expert Chris Landsea published a study on May 1 documenting that hurricane activity is no higher now than in decades past. Hurricane expert William Gray reported just a few days earlier, on April 27, that the number of major hurricanes making landfall on the U.S. Atlantic coast has declined in the past 40 years. Hurricane scientists reported in the April 18 Geophysical Research Letters that global warming enhances wind shear, which will prevent a significant increase in future hurricane activity.

Gore claims global warming is causing an expansion of African deserts. However, the Sept. 16, 2002, issue of New Scientist reports, "Africa's deserts are in 'spectacular' retreat . . . making farming viable again in what were some of the most arid parts of Africa."

Gore argues Greenland is in rapid meltdown, and that this threatens to raise sea levels by 20 feet. But according to a 2005 study in the Journal of Glaciology, "the Greenland ice sheet is thinning at the margins and growing inland, with a small overall mass gain."  In late 2006, researchers at the Danish Meteorological Institute reported that the past two decades were the coldest for Greenland since the 1910s.

Gore claims the Antarctic ice sheet is melting because of global warming. Yet the Jan. 14, 2002, issue of Nature magazine reported Antarctica as a whole has been dramatically cooling for decades. More recently, scientists reported in the September 2006 issue of the British journal Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society Series A: Mathematical, Physical, and Engineering Sciences, that satellite measurements of the Antarctic ice sheet showed significant growth between 1992 and 2003. And the U.N. Climate Change panel reported in February 2007 that Antarctica is unlikely to lose any ice mass during the remainder of the century.

Each of these cases provides an opportunity for Gore to lead by example in his call for an end to the distortion of science. Will he rise to the occasion? Only time will tell.


James M. Taylor is senior fellow for environment policy at the Heartland Institute

Thor

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Re: Alarmist global warming claims melt under scientific scrutiny
« Reply #1 on: July 01, 2007, 08:04:03 AM »
Gore won't let "FACTS" get in his way. He has an agenda. Of course, one of the companies he's involved with sells those "carbon credits". Can we say "FRAUD"??
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mountainclmbr

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Re: Alarmist global warming claims melt under scientific scrutiny
« Reply #2 on: July 01, 2007, 06:22:47 PM »
There you go stirring up those with latent Marxist beliefs by poking them with a stick.
Just say no to Obama, Osama and Chelsea's mama.

Manedwolf

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Re: Alarmist global warming claims melt under scientific scrutiny
« Reply #3 on: July 02, 2007, 06:34:08 AM »
Two words. Carbon credits.

There's why the whole thing is being pushed. People getting paid millions to do...nothing, in a modern-day indulgence scam.

Paddy

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Re: Alarmist global warming claims melt under scientific scrutiny
« Reply #4 on: July 02, 2007, 03:03:11 PM »
Science basically sucks.  First, global warming, then no.  First, caffeine free coffee is good for you, then no.  First, antioxidants are good for you, then, no way they will freaking kill you.  Did I say science sucks?  No, it blows.

Sergeant Bob

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Re: Alarmist global warming claims melt under scientific scrutiny
« Reply #5 on: July 02, 2007, 03:16:24 PM »
Well, what I've been hearing lately is a lot of people now referring to "Global Climate Change". Makes it harder to  argue with them I guess. They can switch hit if they get into a bind trying to convince you of GW.

Kind of like being bi-sexual for them. If they don't have any success one way, they can switch to the other side. grin
Personally, I do not understand how a bunch of people demanding a bigger govt can call themselves anarchist.
I meet lots of folks like this, claim to be anarchist but really they're just liberals with pierced genitals. - gunsmith

I already have canned butter, buying more. Canned blueberries, some pancake making dry goods and the end of the world is gonna be delicious.  -French G

mountainclmbr

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Re: Alarmist global warming claims melt under scientific scrutiny
« Reply #6 on: July 02, 2007, 05:11:56 PM »
When their agenda has been apparent for at least 100 years. And when the solution to a "disputed" problem exactly fits their agenda, anyone who does not have their BS meter in full alarm mode is either one of them or is not paying attention. It is like reading this in Pravda and not thinking "what the hell are they trying to gain here?".
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Sergeant Bob

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Re: Alarmist global warming claims melt under scientific scrutiny
« Reply #7 on: July 02, 2007, 08:38:42 PM »
When their agenda has been apparent for at least 100 years. And when the solution to a "disputed" problem exactly fits their agenda, anyone who does not have their BS meter in full alarm mode is either one of them or is not paying attention. 

Like this?

Personally, I do not understand how a bunch of people demanding a bigger govt can call themselves anarchist.
I meet lots of folks like this, claim to be anarchist but really they're just liberals with pierced genitals. - gunsmith

I already have canned butter, buying more. Canned blueberries, some pancake making dry goods and the end of the world is gonna be delicious.  -French G

HankB

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Re: Alarmist global warming claims melt under scientific scrutiny
« Reply #8 on: July 03, 2007, 04:22:25 AM »
Well, what I've been hearing lately is a lot of people now referring to "Global Climate Change". Makes it harder to  argue with them I guess. They can switch hit if they get into a bind trying to convince you of GW.
I like the way the GW crowd makes predictions, and then comes up with all kinds of excuses why they're still right, even though their predictions were wrong.

Take the 2006 hurricane season . . . after Rita and Katrina, the GW crowd were all jumping up and down in unison, predicting that 2006 would be even worse for the USA, with more - and more intense - storms.

Actual number of hurricanes hitting CONUS in 2006? Zip. Zilch. Nada. A big goose egg.

I can see the GW alarmists doing damage control . . . Blame El Nino! (Uhhh . . . nope, not a factor. No El Nino yet.) Blame Cosmic Rays! (Uhhh . . . no, people won't swallow that.) Blame Volcanos! (Uh oh, no major eruptions we can point to . . . and people tend to notice these things.) Blame Sandstorms! (Uhhh . . .hey, that's not such a bad idea, especially since there's really no known effect on hurricanes that anyone can go back and check! That's it! Sandstorms in Africa - we've know for decades that sand CAN be carried aloft!! That's the ticket! Woo Hoo, We're still right!)
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Ron

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Re: Alarmist global warming claims melt under scientific scrutiny
« Reply #9 on: July 09, 2007, 06:41:07 AM »
The sky is falling!!!!! For GW advocates.


   


July 08, 2007
SCIENCE Magazine Waffles on Warming
By James Lewis
The American scientific establishment is starting to take baby steps away from taking sides in the politics of global warming. It's sad to have to read science articles for political spin, like some announcement by the Kremlin. But climate change has now become so politicized that SCIENCE magazine reflects at least as much politics as honest science. You have to read it for spin.

SCIENCE magazine is the flagship journal of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, which is the professional advocacy group for scientists in the United States. SCIENCE is both the profession's political journal (telling readers how to get government grants, for example), and it also has original findings. So it has an openly political side, as well as a real science side.

The last issue of SCIENCE is waffling like mad on the global warming fad, warning its readers that it may not be so settled a question. Under the headline "Another Global Warming Icon Comes Under Attack," SCIENCE writer Richard Kerr writes:

    "...a group of mainstream atmospheric scientists is disputing a rising icon of global warming, and researchers are giving some ground." ...

    "Robert Charlson of the University of Washington, Seattle, (is) one of three authors of a commentary published online last week in Nature Reports: Climate Change. ... he and his co-authors argue that the simulation by 14 different climate models of the warming in the 20th century is not the reassuring success IPCC claims it to be."

(IPCC is the supposed international scientific consensus document on global warming - JL).

    "... In the run-up to the IPCC climate science report released last February ... 14 groups ran their models under 20th-century conditions of rising greenhouse gases. ... But the group of three atmospheric scientists ... says the close match between models and the actual warming is deceptive. The match "conveys a lot more confidence [in the models] than can be supported in actuality," says Schwartz. [....]

    "Greenhouse gas changes are well known, they note, but not so the counteracting cooling of pollutant hazes, called aerosols. Aerosols cool the planet by reflecting away sunlight and increasing the reflectivity of clouds. Somehow, the three researchers say, modelers failed to draw on all the uncertainty inherent in aerosols so that the 20th-century simulations look more certain than they should." [Italics added]

What? "Somehow" they missed the biggest unknown factor in climate prediction?

Highly qualified climate scientists have long warned that warming estimates have at least one giant question mark: Water vapor and other tiny particles in the atmosphere. By failing to include reliable estimates of such "hazes" (not necessarily pollutants, as the article says), global warming models are likely to err wildly on the side of warming. It's the unseen elephant in the living room.
The SCIENCE article therefore finally admits what scientific critics have been saying for years.

Interested readers should also take a good look at the graph in the SCIENCE article, which superficially seems to support the global warming story. But notice the vertical bars at the right side of the graph, which show the "90 percent confidence interval" --- the chances that the graph line is actually where it is shown to be. Turns out that the orange confidence interval includes all the points on the graph between 1930 and 2000... meaning that we can't tell that any of those points are different from each other with even 90 percent certainty. And that's not even including the big Black Hole of water vapor.

Now "90 percent confidence" might sound like a lot. But in standard scientific publications a 95 percent confidence level is the minimum acceptable level. The reason is that one can just run a study 10 times, and achieve a 90 percent confidence level purely by chance. So we normally demand a higher standard of proof --- at least 95 percent confidence. The data in the SCIENCE graph therefore does not meet routine scientific standards.

Many scientists will read this item as a red flag, cautioning that all is not well in the global warming game.

Happy Earth Day - and never forget that telling the truth is the first, indispensible step toward wise management of our resources.

James Lewis blogs at http://www.dangeroustimes.wordpress.com/

Page Printed from: http://www.americanthinker.com/2007/07/science_magazine_waffles_on_wa.html at July 09, 2007 - 11:33:08 AM EDT

Jamisjockey

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Re: Alarmist global warming claims melt under scientific scrutiny
« Reply #10 on: July 09, 2007, 07:29:09 AM »
Well, what I've been hearing lately is a lot of people now referring to "Global Climate Change". Makes it harder to  argue with them I guess. They can switch hit if they get into a bind trying to convince you of GW.

Kind of like being bi-sexual for them. If they don't have any success one way, they can switch to the other side. grin

Climate change is a fact.  And it has been for 60 million years.  The Earth is in a constant state of change.  How much of it is our fault is the only thing up for debate (which I think little of it is our fault). 
While I think we have the ability to destroy the planet, we're not doing it.   Third world countries are.  They dump anything and everything into the water, the soil and the atmospshere.  We (the industrialized countries) certainly aren't the problem.  Nor are we the solution.
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Ron

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Re: Alarmist global warming claims melt under scientific scrutiny
« Reply #11 on: July 09, 2007, 07:41:22 AM »
Quote
Climate change is a fact

I agree, the Earth heats up, the Earth cools down, it has it's own rythem that science is only beginning to understand.

To blame man for GW is arrogant IMHO.

Sindawe

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Re: Alarmist global warming claims melt under scientific scrutiny
« Reply #12 on: July 11, 2007, 02:47:06 PM »
Thats the way science works RileyMC.  If later data proves the original hypothesis to be bunk, you come up with a new hypothesis that fits all the facts.

Of course, that is NOT how mass-media works.  Just last night I was watching some edumicated talking head lament the accelerated rate of Greenlands glaciers flowing into the sea and how its all humanities fault.  Gots to sell them Carbon credits before the marks catch on to the scam! 

Well, at least I was during the commercial breaks of watching Mike Rowe lament getting covered in snake poo.
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Re: Alarmist global warming claims melt under scientific scrutiny
« Reply #13 on: July 11, 2007, 03:23:13 PM »
Quote
Greenlands glaciers flowing into the sea

The beginnings of turning Greenland green again. I'll start worrying about global warming getting to be too much when Greenland turns from green to brown.

Death Valley had a mild climate and large lakes 10,000 years ago. Look at it now. Who's fault is that?
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mountainclmbr

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Re: Alarmist global warming claims melt under scientific scrutiny
« Reply #14 on: July 11, 2007, 06:56:57 PM »
Human induced Climate Change, previously known as Global Warming, previously known as Global Cooling or industrial winter, previously used as an excuse by Aztec's to sacrafice innocent victims on top of pyramids to cure crop failures. Those who do not learn the lessons of history will be the invited guests on top of the pyramid.
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Rudy Kohn

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Re: Alarmist global warming claims melt under scientific scrutiny
« Reply #15 on: July 11, 2007, 06:59:25 PM »
On a related note, I wanted to highlight one of the new buzzphrases being used by the global warming people:  "positive feedback," since it hasn't been mentioned yet.

Basically, they hypothesize that warming trends will cause changes to various things--undersea frozen methane deposits, overall reflectivity changes due to climate change, et cetera.  The idea is that a slight change may push us over the "edge," and cause further change to occur at an accelerating rate.

This doesn't seem to hold water--there have been far warmer periods than now, and, if the hypothesis is correct, it should have stayed that way.

The thing about climates is... shift happens. (bad pun rolleyes)  Considering that only 30 years ago people were worried about a new ice age, it seems overzealous to go crazy over slight changes over short periods (like decades).  Certainly, "stop everything!" is not a good solution.  The forward march of technology will do more for the world and for mankind in the long run.

HankB

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Re: Alarmist global warming claims melt under scientific scrutiny
« Reply #16 on: July 12, 2007, 03:43:35 AM »
Quote
Greenlands glaciers flowing into the sea

The beginnings of turning Greenland green again. . . .
Like it was when the Vikings first arrived, circa 800 AD? Their Greenlanish (Greenlandish?) colonies thrived for centuries until the arrival of the Little Ice Age . . .
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Firethorn

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Re: Alarmist global warming claims melt under scientific scrutiny
« Reply #17 on: July 14, 2007, 06:23:53 AM »
I have to agree with the others here...

From science/history classes in school, I learned about the time of the dinosaurs, when the earth was much more tropical than it is now.  I learned about the ice ages - including ones recent enough that there was a bridge between the asian and american continents because the glaciers came down do far.

These cycles happened when man barely knew about fire, much less how to become industrialized or know how to build enough, farm enough, to have real effects on climate.  Beavers in many respects were better dam builders at the time, for example.

I'd tend to say that we've only had accurate climate readings in the last 100 years or so.  Global readings for the last 50.  Past that point we do have many data points, but they're of questionable accuracy.  Early scholars didn't necessarily understand the need to keep the thermometer away from a fire, or out of direct sunlight.  They were relatively poorly calibrated.  50 years is a drop in the bucket when you're looking at cycles that are in the thousands to millions of years; long term trends that are affected by things like tetonic plate movement that results in a new mountain range, turning formerly green areas into deserts and vice versa.

You go further back to things like ice cores and tree rings, and you have only approximations.  Much like people talk about ballistic fingerprinting, the results of these measurements are only approximations of broad trends.

In short, I think climate science still has a long way to go, and Al Gore is actually damaging it by politicalizing the issues.  Much of the climate hysteria comes from groups dependent upon that very hysteria for funding.

Ben

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Re: Alarmist global warming claims melt under scientific scrutiny
« Reply #18 on: July 14, 2007, 02:12:58 PM »
Quote
climate hysteria comes from groups dependent upon that very hysteria for funding.

Like this little ditty that was in my work email box this morning from one of the environmental NGOs that think the best way to lobby is to bulk email to every .gov email address on the planet.

------------------------

Heres a very effective add to help visualize CO2 emissions.  Click on this site and watch the black balloons ad.  Then check out todays NY Times story on Als climate change website and his climate change, ad-campaign idea.

                     Wxxxx

 

http://www.climateprotect.org/ah12

 

New York Times

Create-an-Ad Contest Aims to Push Climate Message

By JOHN M. BRODER

Published: July 13, 2007

WASHINGTON, July 12  Saving the planet is hard work, Al Gore says, and somebody has to sell the idea.

As a follow-up to last weekends Live Earth concerts he helped promote, Mr. Gore is sponsoring a competition to create a series of television and Internet ads to raise awareness on the issue of climate change.

Mr. Gore said in an interview Thursday that governments were moving much too slowly to address what he calls the global warming crisis. He said he hoped to use a sophisticated and well-financed advertising campaign to motivate people in the United States and around the globe to demand immediate action on the greenhouse gases that scientists say are cooking the planet.

The best way to reach public hearts and minds, the former vice president said, is through the time-tested medium of advertising.  The way nations and societies make up their minds in the modern age has much more to do with mass advertising than many of us purists would like, but thats the reality, Mr. Gore said by telephone from California. Since we face a true planetary emergency, we have to give the planet a P.R. agent.

Mr. Gore, through his environmental group, the Alliance for Climate Protection, has sent invitations to advertising agencies to submit 15-, 30- and 60-second ecospots explaining the global warming phenomenon and urging action to address it, at either the local or national level. The alliance is soliciting entries from anyone with a camera or video-editing capabilities.

Submissions are due by Sept. 12, and the spots will be judged by a panel of activists, scientists and celebrities like Cameron Diaz and George Clooney. The alliance may choose to broadcast several of the entries; a Toyota Highlander hybrid S.U.V. will be awarded for the best spot. (Contest details are at www.current.tv/ecospot/.)

Mr. Gore said that the ads would begin showing this fall as the vanguard of what he said would be a three- to five-year campaign to ignite global action on the issue. He said he hoped some ads would run as public service announcements during time donated by television stations.

Mr. Gore said he planned to raise millions of dollars to place paid spots on commercial and cable television. He added that he expected wide distribution through his cable channel, Current TV, and on the Internet though YouTube, MySpace and various sites devoted to environmental causes.

Its going to have very serious funding behind it for a significant period of time. We are not playing around with this, he said. It is designed to move the United States and the rest of the world past a tipping point beyond which a majority of political, business and civic leaders compete to offer genuinely effective solutions to the climate crisis.

He cited as an example of an effective spot a 45-second ad known as Black Balloons that illustrates how normal household tasks like brewing coffee or watching television contribute to global warming because they are powered by the burning of fossil fuels. The spot culminates with a thick cloud of black balloons representing carbon dioxide emissions swirling into the sky.

The ad originated in Australia as part of a local educational project in the state of Victoria. A version on the alliance Web site (at www.climateprotect.org/ah12/) was given a new voice-over by the actor Tommy Lee Jones, Mr. Gores college roommate and longtime friend.

Mr. Gore cited as a precedent the years-long campaign against smoking sponsored by the government and nonprofit health groups. He also said that individuals rather than big advertising agencies might generate the most effective ads.  Greg Stern, chief executive of Butler, Shine, Stern & Partners, an advertising agency in Sausalito, Calif., endorsed the idea of user-generated content, particularly on an issue that stirs intense emotions.

Tapping into the passion on this topic is brilliant, said Mr. Stern, a pioneer in user-generated advertising. The idea of turning to consumers to spread the word is very smart. It might even preclude the need for an ad agency.  Mr. Stern had one criticism, however. Its unfortunate that the prize in the end is an automobile, he said, even if its a hybrid.
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Desertdog

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Re: Alarmist global warming claims melt under scientific scrutiny
« Reply #19 on: July 14, 2007, 05:09:16 PM »
My submission would consist of a movie showing a person looking out of the window viewing a scene of trees in full leaf and flowers in full bloom with blizzard conditions at the same time.
The scroll under the scene would say "The CO2 problem has been solved."