Author Topic: Why vote for anybody but Ron Paul?  (Read 83479 times)

Len Budney

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Re: Why vote for anybody but Ron Paul?
« Reply #25 on: September 14, 2007, 11:15:27 AM »
You might want to research how online polls can be slammed by one and only one person with the right skill set or mere access to msdos/linux shell scripts.

That's probably true of some polls--namely, the ones coded by incompetents. Any web developer worth his salt will log IP addresses and forbid multiple votes from a single IP, or if possible will require a logged-in user with a unique email address in order to vote. Those measures can be circumvented, but not by your average script kiddy.

It's no secret that RP supporters "Freep" political polls. When I see a link to a poll, I often pop over and vote for RP myself, and I'm sure others do too. I don't vote multiple times, but out of curiosity I've cleared cookies and reloaded, and when I've checked, I get the message, "Your IP has already voted" OWTTE.

On the other hand, I'm sure that "Hillraisers" also "Freep" polls for Billary. It's impossible to say whether the result is a wash or not, but you would generally expect the results to be vaguely correlated with the candidate's actual popularity: if Giuliani supporters outnumber RP supporters by 50:1, and a poll is posted to forums where Giuliani's and RP's respective supporters hang out, you'd expect the proportion of folks rushing over to vote would be somewhere in the ballpark of 50:1 in Giuliani's favor. If you firmly believe that some hacker is voting multiple times, then you'd expect pro-Giuliani hackerbots to outnumber pro-RP hackerbots by roughly 50:1, and again you'd expect a relative wash.

Since that's clearly not happening, one might cast about for an explanation. Keeping the made-up ratio of 50:1 for Rudy, and supposing that RP beats Rudy by 3:1 in internet polls, the following are some possible explanations:

1) Perhaps the average RP supporter is 150x more likely to go vote in a poll he sees posted online. (This seems doubtful, though.)

2) Perhaps skilled hackers are 150x more likely to support RP than Rudy. (I can't begin to guess whether that's plausible or not.)

3) Perhaps each RP supporter, on average, votes 150 times in Internet polls for each Rudy supporter's single vote. (They must have lots of time on their hands.)

4) Perhaps voters who support Rudy are 150x less likely to use the Internet in the first place. Maybe they're all teamsters, and after a hard day at the loading dock they're just too worn out to bother going online.

5) Perhaps Rudy supporters aren't even reading political sites. Maybe they're all at MySpace hooking up, while every single RP supporter is busy reading LewRockwell.com and spamming Digg. So maybe the RP supporters are 150x more likely even to know the poll is out there.

6) Perhaps Internet users are much more likely to be libertarian than the average person. This is a variant of #4 above, more or less.

7) Then again, it's possible that the relative support isn't 50:1 after all.

The disparity between online unscientific polls and offline (presumably scientific) polls is too great to be ignored; something is going on there. But I would hesitate to offer glib explanations. I suspect that #5, #6 and #7 all play a part in the true explanation. Proving it would be tough. Translating that into election predictions would be even tougher; we'd have to figure out the relative likelihood of Internet users voting, compared to the general population, just for starters.

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Euclidean

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Re: Why vote for anybody but Ron Paul?
« Reply #26 on: September 14, 2007, 11:32:15 AM »
The examples don't really compare though.  TJ's action didn't involve a prolonged government boondoggle to occupy a foreign nation with no apparent strategy.  TJ didn't throw billions of $$$ after it either.  I don't have a history book handy but I think that war started in 1803 and ended in 1805, and was only undertaken because the previous administration was paying tribute to criminals and TJ had no "good" way of solving the problem.  And as much as I admire TJ, I believe he tried to force two wrongs into a right in that situation, even if I am sympathetic to his sticky situation.

Saddam is gone.  Why are we still there?  Nation building?  While nation building an ally in the region with a secular government first seemed like a good idea to me, it's now apparent that Iraq isn't going to be another Japan.  We rebuilt Japan in 6 years and after the first 2 years or so, our troops started to trickle out as the situation improved.  We went in, in 2003, do you think Iraq is going to be ready for Coalition forces to pull out in 2 years?  We tried, by God we tried as well as anyone can try, we sent the best people in the world in masses and masses and they are still doing everything for those people, but it's obvious to me that Iraq doesn't want prosperity or western civilization.  That fight is centuries if not millennia old, we're not going to roll in and solve it any time soon.

As for Bush's motivation, We know the support for the anti US regime is coming from Iran.  Why are we still in Iraq?  Why aren't we blasting the Saudis and other known terrorists?  These actions speak loudly to me.  He could at least speak to these issues coherently.  Even if his motivation is not foul, he's clearly incompetent at best.

The dishonest pretenses I was speaking to wasn't the WMD thing.  The WMD theories come from the Clinton administration (there's a lovely quote by John Kerry about WMDs too).  Of course it speaks to Bush's (lack of) competency he'd take information from Clinton's administration but I digress. 

The pretense I take issue with was that Saddam was an active threat to the US and that the war in Iraq had something to do with terrorism when we already had known terrorists at large in other places. The real terrorists hated Saddam's regime because it was secular.  I say we should have let those evil bastards kill each other.

Any way you argue it, you can't really defend Bush's actions as Constitutional, ethical, or logical in the matter.  At the very best, I might be persuaded that he honestly screwed up on a truly massive scale, an action which is hardly exempt from scorn and criticism.

Mannlicher

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Re: Why vote for anybody but Ron Paul?
« Reply #27 on: September 14, 2007, 12:10:31 PM »
Were the probable consequences of Ron Paul's platform planks on National Security so serious, his simplistic and childish isolationist world view would be laughable.

SteveS

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Re: Why vote for anybody but Ron Paul?
« Reply #28 on: September 14, 2007, 12:29:27 PM »
While nation building an ally in the region with a secular government first seemed like a good idea to me, it's now apparent that Iraq isn't going to be another Japan. 

This portion of Iraq's Constitution seems problematic to me:

        Article (2):

        1st  Islam is the official religion of the state and is a basic source of legislation:

        (a) No law can be passed that contradicts the undisputed rules of Islam.

        (b) No law can be passed that contradicts the principles of democracy.

        (c) No law can be passed that contradicts the rights and basic freedoms outlined in this constitution.


How is this going to work? 
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Manedwolf

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Re: Why vote for anybody but Ron Paul?
« Reply #29 on: September 14, 2007, 12:58:48 PM »
Quote
         (a) No law can be passed that contradicts the undisputed rules of Islam.

        (b) No law can be passed that contradicts the principles of democracy.


Um. Sharia law is absolutely contradictory to democracy. I have no idea how that's supposed to work.

If you break the laws, you die. If you try to leave the religion, you die. That's...um...democratic...

Len Budney

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Re: Why vote for anybody but Ron Paul?
« Reply #30 on: September 14, 2007, 01:02:55 PM »
If you break the laws, you die. If you try to leave the religion, you die. That's...um...democratic...

What stops a democracy from having a death penalty? If enough Americans wanted it, they could repeal the "equal protection" clause and then make circumcision a capital crime. (They might get away without amending the Constitution, depending who sits in SCOTUS.)

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SteveS

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Re: Why vote for anybody but Ron Paul?
« Reply #31 on: September 14, 2007, 01:55:47 PM »
If you break the laws, you die. If you try to leave the religion, you die. That's...um...democratic...

What stops a democracy from having a death penalty? If enough Americans wanted it, they could repeal the "equal protection" clause and then make circumcision a capital crime. (They might get away without amending the Constitution, depending who sits in SCOTUS.)

--Len.


You are correct, but I have a hard time seeing how the Iraqi gov't will work under that Constitution.  Can democracy trump Islamic law?  Our Constitution allows for an amendment process, the Koran, I presume, doesn't.  The Soviet Constitution contained all sorts of rights that were never followed.  Will that happen here?
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Len Budney

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Re: Why vote for anybody but Ron Paul?
« Reply #32 on: September 14, 2007, 02:43:03 PM »
... I have a hard time seeing how the Iraqi gov't will work under that Constitution.  Can democracy trump Islamic law?

It doesn't have to. They're a constitutional republic (in theory, anyway), and their constitution includes the Koran. And they won't be amending it. A law kicking out the Jews would be unconstitutional in America, but it would probably be upheld in Iraq. That's every bit as constitutional as the US; it's just a different constitution.

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De Selby

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Re: Why vote for anybody but Ron Paul?
« Reply #33 on: September 14, 2007, 02:47:01 PM »
Quote
         (a) No law can be passed that contradicts the undisputed rules of Islam.

        (b) No law can be passed that contradicts the principles of democracy.


Um. Sharia law is absolutely contradictory to democracy. I have no idea how that's supposed to work.

If you break the laws, you die. If you try to leave the religion, you die. That's...um...democratic...

Uh, where did you get your conclusions as to what is "Sharia law"? 

I keep seeing this claim repeated.  Where does support for the claim come from?
"Human existence being an hallucination containing in itself the secondary hallucinations of day and night (the latter an insanitary condition of the atmosphere due to accretions of black air) it ill becomes any man of sense to be concerned at the illusory approach of the supreme hallucination known as death."

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Re: Why vote for anybody but Ron Paul?
« Reply #34 on: September 14, 2007, 03:52:59 PM »
Quote
        (a) No law can be passed that contradicts the undisputed rules of Islam.

        (b) No law can be passed that contradicts the principles of democracy.

Looks like the sausage factory of representative government has started in Iraq to me.

There will be arguments, compromises and synthesis to make what appears to be contradictory philosophies work together all through the legislative process. Just because it doesn't look like our democratic republic doesn't mean it is doomed to failure. It is the beginning of freedom for the region. Baby steps working through the contradictions between their religion and freedom. Iraq has the potential to become a showcase for the success of "moderated" Islam and it's relationship to the modern world.

SteveS

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Re: Why vote for anybody but Ron Paul?
« Reply #35 on: September 14, 2007, 06:12:47 PM »
... I have a hard time seeing how the Iraqi gov't will work under that Constitution.  Can democracy trump Islamic law?

It doesn't have to. They're a constitutional republic (in theory, anyway), and their constitution includes the Koran. And they won't be amending it. A law kicking out the Jews would be unconstitutional in America, but it would probably be upheld in Iraq. That's every bit as constitutional as the US; it's just a different constitution.

--Len.


What about a ruling by one of the religious leaders on Islamic law that goes against democracy?  Who wins?  Maybe this does have potential, but I see more of a theocracy then a secular state.
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Mabs2

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Re: Why vote for anybody but Ron Paul?
« Reply #36 on: September 14, 2007, 06:18:22 PM »
The issue is that the war was started under illegal and dishonest pretenses, and was a political ploy and not motivated by any desire to fight terrorism or any noble cause at all.

We can't just let Bush do this and say it's okay.  Just because the armed forces are amazingly talented and can make something good out of something bad doesn't mean there's no reason to be critical.
Pretty much sums up my stance on the war, I think.
It was started unconstitutionally...but it was started, so we have to finish it.  I agree we are doing good works over there.  But I don't think it'd end well if we just up and pulled out completely all of a sudden.
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MechAg94

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Re: Why vote for anybody but Ron Paul?
« Reply #37 on: September 14, 2007, 08:14:45 PM »
You know I voted for Ron for Congress last time around.  Some of you arguing for him are making me regret that vote. 
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MechAg94

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Re: Why vote for anybody but Ron Paul?
« Reply #38 on: September 14, 2007, 08:17:02 PM »
The issue is that the war was started under illegal and dishonest pretenses, and was a political ploy and not motivated by any desire to fight terrorism or any noble cause at all.

We can't just let Bush do this and say it's okay.  Just because the armed forces are amazingly talented and can make something good out of something bad doesn't mean there's no reason to be critical.
Pretty much sums up my stance on the war, I think.
It was started unconstitutionally...but it was started, so we have to finish it.  I agree we are doing good works over there.  But I don't think it'd end well if we just up and pulled out completely all of a sudden.
While I disagree with just about everything else quoted, I do agree that pulling out now is not the answer.  However it was started, we have a responsibility as a nation to see it ended in the best way we can. 
“It is much more important to kill bad bills than to pass good ones.”  ― Calvin Coolidge

Len Budney

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Re: Why vote for anybody but Ron Paul?
« Reply #39 on: September 15, 2007, 02:23:33 AM »
What about a ruling by one of the religious leaders on Islamic law that goes against democracy?

A constitutional republic is NOT a democracy. A democracy can decide to kill Jews if the majority votes for it. A constitutional republic CAN'T, even IF a majority votes for it, if the Constitution says it can't. The second amendment is "against democracy"; if 51% of Americans want gun control, they still can't have it.

Same goes for Iraq. If 51% of Iraqis want to drink booze, too bad. Islam (and hence the Constitution) says they can't.

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SteveS

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Re: Why vote for anybody but Ron Paul?
« Reply #40 on: September 15, 2007, 03:37:37 AM »
I understand that, but it just seems like they are setting up 'theocracy-lite.'  I seriously doubt we will see much of a democracy in 10 years.  Do you really think that is a framework for a secular, free democracy, which is what was touted in the beginning.
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gaston_45

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Re: Why vote for anybody but Ron Paul?
« Reply #41 on: September 15, 2007, 05:31:35 AM »

Y'mean the polls that the Ron Zombies all pile on and tell each other to pile on and skew?  rolleyes

Oops, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fevHlTcg2X4

What's the next excuse?

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Re: Why vote for anybody but Ron Paul?
« Reply #42 on: September 15, 2007, 10:21:47 AM »
This stinks on ice:

Quote
On the other hand, I agree that it's unlikely he'll win, for a simple reason: pretty much everyone who gets his paycheck from Uncle Sam can be expected to vote against Ron Paul. And that's almost half the country right there.

I humbly submit that anyone who takes in more government money than he pays out in taxes should be prohibited from voting. That would include most defense contractors, almost all government employees, and everyone on the dole. Their bread is buttered on the wrong side.

Yeah, we retired military types are such statist morons.  Oops, pardon me, just washed my brain, can't do a thing with it.   rolleyes

On second thought, this rubs me very wrong. Do people actually read what they're typing on internet forums these days?  Half the country (about 150 million souls, last I checked) gets their paycheck from Uncle Sam?  Not hardly, and why are government employees not deserving of the right to vote, specifically?



Let me offer some assistance in preventing further instances of foot-in-mouth disease. I'm going to say this once folks, and it's not just for Len's sake. Lest we forget, Mike laid out some fairly basic ground rules for this new Politics Place. Consider your audience and fellow forum members - they represent a varied and diverse slice of society. Think twice, post once.  Wink

(Yes, there are more than a few government employees and pensioners here at APS, and I don't particulary care to offend them, either.  It's rude, and not the way we do things at APS, period.)
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Len Budney

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Re: Why vote for anybody but Ron Paul?
« Reply #43 on: September 15, 2007, 10:51:53 AM »
Quote
I humbly submit that anyone who takes in more government money than he pays out in taxes should be prohibited from voting. That would include most defense contractors, almost all government employees, and everyone on the dole. Their bread is buttered on the wrong side.

Yeah, we retired military types are such statist morons.  Oops, pardon me, just washed my brain, can't do a thing with it.   rolleyes

I can't control whether you take offense, but the fact is that roughly 1/2 of all Americans profit directly from tax dollars. Cutting government spending means cutting their pay. The vast majority of them will not vote to cut the program which pays for their groceries. Restricting the franchise to net tax losers, and excluding net tax gainers, is of course offered tongue in cheek.

More seriously, though, I blame the ones doing the stealing much more than the ones receiving the proceeds of the theft. Many of the latter are as innocent as the barber that cut Al Capone's hair. They're paid with the fruits of crime, but they aren't themselves criminals. The real answer is to shut down Al Capone, not to arrest his barber for receiving stolen funds. In the same way, the federal government needs to be shut down, or at least shrunk to a fraction of its current size. They're the ones doing the stealing.

That WILL meet with resistance though. Al Capone's barber may have been sad to lose such a good tipper; the same for his maid, his landscaper and his accountant. In the same way, net tax gainers will be sad to see their gravy train shut down, and many of them will whine about it. They'll naturally offer the most altruistic reasons why their programs are vital and should be preserved, of course.

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Gewehr98

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Re: Why vote for anybody but Ron Paul?
« Reply #44 on: September 15, 2007, 11:26:52 AM »
Ok, here's how it's going to work, Len.

You can indeed control whether or not you offend folks here at APS.  I'm retired military with a healthy pension, and another moderator is a current government contractor.  That doesn't even begin to address the others here who pay taxes on their government paychecks. (Yes, it's taxable income)

Forgive me if I didn't consult with you 20+ years ago prior to my last career - my bad. However, saying my livelihood and other members' chosen professions come from theft is not how we make friends here.  You may think it's funny, or tongue-in-cheek.  When Market Anarchists take over the world, then we'll revisit who does and doesn't have a sense of humor.

We know you like stirring the pot from your THR days.  Just watch how vigorously you stir it here, and who you splatter with it, capiche?  I wouldn't want you to stir yourself right out of APS.

As Mike stated, the Politics Place will be quite seriously moderated.  The succcess and longevity of this particular subforum hinges on how well we conduct ourselves.  I'd prefer we didn't leave the starting gates already fouled up. 
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Len Budney

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Re: Why vote for anybody but Ron Paul?
« Reply #45 on: September 15, 2007, 11:48:18 AM »
Ok, here's how it's going to work, Len.

Are you speaking as a moderator, or as the forum's owner? Or are you speaking personally in a private capacity?

Quote
You can indeed control whether or not you offend folks here at APS.  I'm retired military with a healthy pension, and another moderator is a current government contractor.  That doesn't even begin to address the others here who pay taxes on their government paychecks. (Yes, it's taxable income)

When I say that money is taken by force from A, and then given to B, I'm stating a fact. Calling the forcible takings "taxes" doesn't change that particular fact. When I observe that taking money by force is immoral, and is also known as "theft," I'm stating a moral opinion, but one which comes pretty directly from the definition of "theft." My conscience impels me to call immorality by its proper name, so I will in fact do this. I have NOT, however, directed any personal attack at any individual, and the fact that you choose to take what I say personally doesn't alter that fact.

Quote
Forgive me if I didn't consult with you 20+ years ago prior to my last career...

Why do you feel some sort of need to justify yourself to me? I neither have, nor want, any authority over you, and can't imagine why my opinions should cause you to lose any sleep.

Quote
However, saying my livelihood and other members' chosen professions come from theft is not how we make friends here.  You may think it's funny, or tongue-in-cheek.

My reference to the franchise was tongue-in-cheek. Taxation IS theft, and there's nothing tongue-in-cheek about that. As I clearly stated, however, receiving tax money doesn't automatically make one a thief. Please don't place that construction on my words, since I never said it--and in fact have said the opposite.

Quote
We know you like stirring the pot from your THR days.  Just watch how vigorously you stir it here, and who you splatter with it, capiche?  I wouldn't want you to stir yourself right out of APS.

Again with authoritarian and threatening language. I ask once again if you're acting in some sort of official capacity, or if you're just talking smack.

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Paddy

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Re: Why vote for anybody but Ron Paul?
« Reply #46 on: September 15, 2007, 01:13:35 PM »
Quote
When I say that money is taken by force from A, and then given to B, I'm stating a fact. Calling the forcible takings "taxes" doesn't change that particular fact. When I observe that taking money by force is immoral, and is also known as "theft," I'm stating a moral opinion, but one which comes pretty directly from the definition of "theft." My conscience impels me to call immorality by its proper name, so I will in fact do this.

Taxes aren't going away anytime soon, so you'd might as well get used to them. Otherwise, you're going to be unhappy for a loooooooooooong time.  The ability to accept reality is an essential component of the maturation process.

Len Budney

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Re: Why vote for anybody but Ron Paul?
« Reply #47 on: September 15, 2007, 01:53:25 PM »
Quote
When I say that money is taken by force from A, and then given to B, I'm stating a fact. Calling the forcible takings "taxes" doesn't change that particular fact. When I observe that taking money by force is immoral, and is also known as "theft," I'm stating a moral opinion, but one which comes pretty directly from the definition of "theft." My conscience impels me to call immorality by its proper name, so I will in fact do this.

Taxes aren't going away anytime soon, so you'd might as well get used to them. Otherwise, you're going to be unhappy for a loooooooooooong time.

You're not telling me anything new. The world isn't converting to Christ anytime soon, either. The welfare state isn't going away. Socialism isn't going away in Europe, and socialized medicine is very probably coming in the US. The US itself stands at best a 50/50 chance of surviving another century, and if it falls, the earth probably won't see the RKBA again for hundreds of years. There's even a chance that the RKBA will vanish in the US. Men have been murdering since Cain.

In short, anyone who believes in ideals of justice is going to be unhappy for a loooooong time. The world has never been without injustice, and it will continue that way long after we're both dead (unless Messiah comes first).

Quote
The ability to accept reality is an essential component of the maturation process.

Accepting reality is not the same thing as approving it. I accept that the world is full of rape and murder, too--but you won't catch me condoning it.

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MechAg94

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Re: Why vote for anybody but Ron Paul?
« Reply #48 on: September 15, 2007, 03:47:27 PM »
Why don't y'all go back to telling us how accurate internet polling is.  That was at least entertaining.  Cheesy
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Re: Why vote for anybody but Ron Paul?
« Reply #49 on: September 15, 2007, 05:20:54 PM »
Or we could resume commence discussion on what gaston_45 had to say and the video he posted showing that the voting on the televised debates that was done by phone, limited vote based on phone number. And Ron Paul stilled recived a majority of the votes. I read a great article about why national polls may be faulty in thier numbers.

As cell phones become more and more widespread, more and more people use that as thier main and only phone. I only use a cell phone as does my roommate, girlfriend, and many other people I know. No pollsters do not have access to these numbers, and relent to using landlines, and those who they reach on landlines are a more disconnected bunch and are more unlikely to have heard of Ron Paul as it seems that the MSM is hell bent on giving Julianin and Romney the most face time.

Yes, the "J" was intentional, if curious, do a youtube search for rudy in a dress.
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