This is how I know Obama will win.

[Perd Hapley]

Results from New Hampshire have been in for a while now, and nobody has bothered to comment. As I had feared, no leader has emerged for us to unite behind. We have one dull candidate who is "our best chance to beat Obama," we have Ron Paul, and we have a smattering of conservative-ish candidates without much support. It's 2008 again, and we're sick of having the same conversation we've been having for four years.

The only question is whether Obama has enough hype left.

[Monkeyleg]

I was listening to a portion of Sean Hannity's radio show yesterday, and he mentioned a poll that showed that a majority of Americans don't want Obama re-elected. I don't know which poll it was or what the questions were.

In Romney's speech after winning New Hampshire, he went after Obama, and probably gave some clues as to how he'd campaign against Obama. It sounded pretty good.

He's not my pick--I don't have one any longer--but I'll vote for him if need be.

[Jamie B]

Yea, but that $1,000,000,000 that Barry has raised will buy a lot of advertising....

[TommyGunn]

Oh, please ..... I DO NOT WANT TO HAVE TO MOVE TO COSTA RICA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

And this goes WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY beyond blaming Fistful!!!!

[Monkeyleg]

Yea, but that $1,000,000,000 that Barry has raised will buy a lot of advertising....

True enough. But no president since Roosevelt has been re-elected with an unemployment rate over 7.2%.

Even with the campaign cash, Obama can be beaten. Whether Romney is the one to do it, I don't know.

[longeyes]

Well, tell us what Obama is going to do with the half of America who refuse to be serfs.

[MillCreek]

True enough. But no president since Roosevelt has been re-elected with an unemployment rate over 7.2%.

Even with the campaign cash, Obama can be beaten. Whether Romney is the one to do it, I don't know.

Spot on.  I continue to believe that the economy and unemployment will be the primary deciders of this election, absent a new war. 

[RevDisk]

Spot on.  I continue to believe that the economy and unemployment will be the primary deciders of this election, absent a new war. 

Ayep. But Republicans can snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

Beating an incumbent isn't easy to begin with, even with the economy. Romney might be smart enough to harp on the economy/unemployment rather than family values stuff

[slingshot]

Ron Paul has indicated that he doesn't want to run as a third party candidate in 2012.  But this is all it would take to ensure that Obama wins in November.  Ron Paul has quite a bargaining chip as far as the Republican platform ends up being or he simply will become a very rich man.

Romney is likely to have problems winning in the South.  But the fractured nature of the overall support for any candidate is not very uplifting.  But this is the process and it is playing out.

[Fitz]

Here's what people don't understand:


it DOESNT MATTER

at this point, the worthless teet-suckers who drain the working class like leeches outnumber us greatly.


They will continue to vote themselves money from public funds.

We are at the point where no decent candidate will win.

[S. Williamson]

Well, tell us what Obama is going to do with the half of America who refuse to be serfs.

What the heck do you mean "refuse to be"? 

We all already are.

[AJ Dual]

Results from New Hampshire have been in for a while now, and nobody has bothered to comment. As I had feared, no leader has emerged for us to unite behind. We have one dull candidate who is "our best chance to beat Obama," we have Ron Paul, and we have a smattering of conservative-ish candidates without much support. It's 2008 again, and we're sick of having the same conversation we've been having for four years.

The only question is whether Obama has enough hype left.

Actually, until the actual convention, I'm not going to hold my breath.

Greats like Reagan, and Milqtoasts like McCain have both come from behind or "nowhere" in the primary process.

[RocketMan]

The unemployment rate has dropped from 9.1% to 8.5% in the last 90 days.  Granted, most of that drop is on paper only, due to unemployment insurance benefits drying up and people giving up on searching for work.  Real employment numbers have crept up only marginally.
But this trend will continue, and the media will hype it to the point where Obama can ride it to reelection.  Get ready for four more years of The One.

[roo_ster]

Ayep. But Republicans can snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

Never can dismiss that factor.

[Blakenzy]

People really, really shouldn't vote for Romney as if he were some diametrically opposed alternative to Obama. He's just a different color of the same shill. Just take a look at his funding and compare that to Obama's. Look at his track record. Do it. If politics were like NASCAR, Romney would be considered Obama's teammate, because he would be running all the same corporate patches on his racing suit.

Screw it, if it's Romney vs Obama, I'm going third party. It's not throwing away your vote if you actually like the candidate. Voting for some one you can't stand out of fear is what a wasted vote really is.

As a final thought, I don't think Obama is a well planted incumbent. A lot of his former supporters, particularly the young folk who made the 2008 election for him, have HAD IT with his unfulfilled promises. You can only promise "Hope n' change" once.

[MechAg94]

IMO, don't give up yet.  It was a foregone conclusion months ago that Romney would likely win New Hampshire.  It doesn't matter.  If starts winning South Caroline and other Southern states, then you can say he is the likely nominee. 

That said, it sounds like some criticism of Romney is starting to peek around the establishment corner.  We'll how he holds up.

[slingshot]

One of my favorite quotes or parapharses from the Obama campaign was "They're drinking the juice."  I find this offensive and something a dictator might say.  That would be Obama's juice and I'm afraid there are enough idiots out there that believe he is the last hope for the working class to get him re-elected.  Unemployment rates are not likely to be any higher than they are now and they have come down slowly.  And there's the statement that the last administration (aka Bush) left us in much worse shape than we thought when I took office on the Hope and Change slogan.  Change we got... Hope we didn't.

[AJ Dual]

As a final thought, I don't think Obama is a well planted incumbent. A lot of his former supporters, particularly the young folk who made the 2008 election for him, have HAD IT with his unfulfilled promises. You can only promise "Hope n' change" once.

Yes, Obama's been losing most every poll made of him vs. "something with a pulse" (anyone in the GOP field) they care to put out. And no incumbent with his fundamentals in the polls or the economy has survived a second term since FDR.

He sold himself to the squishy middle as "something new and different" based on raw emotionalism based on skillful oratory, and nothing else. He can't get away with it a second time. Worse, he has to run against an "obstructionist" Congress, and Bush II, which will by then be four years in the past, not his actual opponent. Blacks are generally hit worse by economic conditions, and while I still expect 98% of actual black voters to vote for Obama, turnout will be depressed. Figuratively and literally. And my final thought on the "racial dynamic" of this election, there also was a factor of "See? Yes America WILL vote for a black guy!" to this, and now that it's been done, there's no groundswell to repeat it.

Well, maybe at least for another 230-odd years or so.  

I'm coming to realize that Ron Paul's good second place performance has got a lot to do with Left/Democrat spoiler votes. Despite what we think here, whoever wins the GOP nomination is likely looking at 3-1 odds of beating Obama.

I am NOT saying "vote for the guy", but like that other thread I started a few weeks back, thinking hard about what kind of coordinated response can be made to kick Mittens in the ass repeatedly for the next four years, and make him one of the few POTUS's in history that have actually swung to the right once coronated inside the Beltway, might be a good idea.

[Jamisjockey]

Well, tell us what Obama is going to do with the half of America who refuse to be serfs.

Half? What half?  The fact that Romney is even a viable GOP candidate speaks to the nature of the average Republican voter. 

I'd bet money that no more than 15% of Americans really believe in the minimialist federal model. 

[Tallpine]

Here's what people don't understand:


it DOESNT MATTER

at this point, the worthless teet-suckers who drain the working class like leeches outnumber us greatly.


They will continue to vote themselves money from public funds.

We are at the point where no decent candidate will win.

I understand.

Which is why I'm only sorta mildly interested in the campaign.

[zahc]

Ron Paul has indicated that he doesn't want to run as a third party candidate in 2012.  But this is all it would take to ensure that Obama wins in November. 

I can see your point, although I don't even think that would be a bad thing. I repeat: I'm not even sure that Mitt would be better than Obama. I will vote for Ron Paul in 2012, if I have to write him in, the way I did in 2008.

Ron Paul has quite a bargaining chip as far as the Republican platform ends up being or he simply will become a very rich man.

I think you a word out.

[Waitone]

It puzzles me the TEA types are strangely silent.  The very movement that breathed life into a moribund republican corpse has yet to be heard from.  That silence may very well be about to end once the campaign moves to SC.  Upstate SC is strong TEA territory.  The revolt against Gresham Barrett began there and eventuated in the election of a TEA darling, Nikki Haley; a mistake if ever there was one.  Up to this point TEA types have yet to be heard from and it surely hasn't had a chance to take a clean swing at Romney.  SC will provide that opportunity.

I'm not saying Romney will lose in SC.  SC has three distinct political districts.  The Northwest third of the state is heavily evangelical with lots of TEA influence.  The middle third of the state is democrat land and the coastal third is a giant RINO game preserve.

Romney may well win the state but it won't be without a black eye.  Ron Paul's chance for a breakout is as high in SC as it is anywhere else.  Like elsewhere, what happens to Paul depends to a large extent on Gingrich, Santorum, et al.  That explains why Paul said everyone but Romney and Paul should resign.  If we are to hear from the TEA movement is could well start in SC. 

One other observation.  Paul says he is not interested in a third party run.  It could be because the republican establishment has quietly passed the word that if Paul runs third party, party republicans will move heaven and earth to terminate Rand Paul career in politics. 

[Perd Hapley]

What is the TEA movement?

[RoadKingLarry]

What is the TEA movement?

Nothing but vapor trails showing lately.

[Monkeyleg]

Every one of the current crop of candidates has appealed to the Tea Party movement, some with more success than others. Some candidates have tried to claim to be part of the movement even as they've been part of the problem (see Gingrich, Newt).

I suspect the Tea Party folks are looking at the possibility of a second Obama term, and keeping quiet as their favorites have been knocked down.