As a final thought, I don't think Obama is a well planted incumbent. A lot of his former supporters, particularly the young folk who made the 2008 election for him, have HAD IT with his unfulfilled promises. You can only promise "Hope n' change" once.
Yes, Obama's been losing most every poll made of him vs. "something with a pulse" (anyone in the GOP field) they care to put out. And no incumbent with his fundamentals in the polls or the economy has survived a second term since FDR.
He sold himself to the squishy middle as "something new and different" based on raw emotionalism based on skillful oratory, and nothing else. He can't get away with it a second time. Worse, he has to run against an "obstructionist" Congress, and Bush II, which will by then be four years in the past, not his actual opponent. Blacks are generally hit worse by economic conditions, and while I still expect 98% of actual black voters to vote for Obama, turnout will be depressed. Figuratively and literally. And my final thought on the "racial dynamic" of this election, there also was a factor of "See? Yes America WILL vote for a black guy!" to this, and now that it's been done, there's no groundswell to repeat it.
Well, maybe at least for another 230-odd years or so.
I'm coming to realize that Ron Paul's good second place performance has got a lot to do with Left/Democrat spoiler votes. Despite what we think here, whoever wins the GOP nomination is likely looking at 3-1 odds of beating Obama.
I am NOT saying "vote for the guy", but like that other thread I started a few weeks back, thinking hard about what kind of coordinated response can be made to kick Mittens in the ass repeatedly for the next four years, and make him one of the few POTUS's in history that have actually swung to the right once coronated inside the Beltway, might be a good idea.