Who will win in 2020?

[AZRedhawk44]

Hopefully the first pebble of an avalanche. Stay tuned.

It Appears There Was a Major Vote Counting Error in Arizona
https://townhall.com/tipsheet/katiepavlich/2020/11/04/it-appears-there-was-a-major-vote-counting-error-in-arizona-n2579447

How long before someone puts up that Kosh meme?

A lot of the affluent areas (Paradise Valley and Scottsdale) had poll workers telling people to vote with sharpies, and the tally machines don't count sharpies correctly.  It's assumed these are right-biased voters that have had their votes (temporarily?) nullified.

[WLJ]

The Hill
@thehill
·
21m
Pennsylvania Secretary of State Kathy Boockvar: "There are still millions of ballots to be counted."

Why is it Madam Secretary FL, TX, NY, CA, OH counted millions of votes in a matter of a handful of hours and you're taking days?

[WLJ]

A lot of the affluent areas (Paradise Valley and Scottsdale) had poll workers telling people to vote with sharpies, and the tally machines don't count sharpies correctly.  It's assumed these are right-biased voters that have had their votes (temporarily?) nullified.

Sharpiegate

[Angel Eyes]

We lost one if not two seats in the senate if I am not mistaken. You have a lot more faith in the Republicans in the Senate than I do.

https://townhall.com/tipsheet/guybenson/2020/11/04/the-libs-wasted-80-million-trying-to-defeat-cocaine-mitch-n2579334

[WLJ]

Trump campaign statement on Wisconsin

“Despite ridiculous public polling used as a voter suppression tactic, Wisconsin has been a razor thin race as we always knew that it would be. There have been reports of irregularities in several Wisconsin counties which raise serious doubts about the validity of the results. The President is well within the threshold to request a recount and we will immediately do so.”

- Bill Stepien, Trump 2020 campaign manager

[WLJ]

https://townhall.com/tipsheet/guybenson/2020/11/04/the-libs-wasted-80-million-trying-to-defeat-cocaine-mitch-n2579334

I can only imagine what they spent on the pile of mail I got, sometimes two or three mailings a day for the past month. Plus they lit my phone up with texts.

[Hawkmoon]

A lot of the affluent areas (Paradise Valley and Scottsdale) had poll workers telling people to vote with sharpies, and the tally machines don't count sharpies correctly.  It's assumed these are right-biased voters that have had their votes (temporarily?) nullified.

I wonder if they use the same type of machines my state uses. In past election, there was a special pen at each station where voters filled out their ballot. This election, the stations all still had the sign that says "USE SPECIAL PEN" -- but there were no special pens, because of COVID-19. I have no idea if my vote could be read or not. However, this state is solidly blue and has been for decades, so my vote didn't matter, anyway.

[WLJ]

This election is so 2020

[just Warren]

We really need to know who the Murder Hornets voted for.

[WLJ]

We really need to know who the Murder Hornets voted for.

Epstein did not sting himself

[WLJ]

Philip Melanchthon Wegmann
@PhilipWegmann
·
1m
Trump Campaign: "We have filed suit today in the Michigan Court of Claims to halt counting until meaningful access has been granted."

[Pb]

It looks like Trump is up in Michigan:

https://mielections.us/election/results/2020GEN_CENR.html

 

[cordex]

It looks like Trump is up in Michigan:

https://mielections.us/election/results/2020GEN_CENR.html

Why are the official numbers so different from all the news/compilation site numbers?  That site is showing 1.5 million fewer votes than other sites reporting on Michigan votes.

[RocketMan]

Per the Washington Post, exit polls show Trump getting 12% of the black vote...

Come to think about it, Biden's "If You Don’t Vote for Me, ‘You Ain’t Black’" gambit worked out for him after all.

[WLJ]

Why are the official numbers so different from all the news/compilation site numbers?  That site is showing 1.5 million fewer votes than other sites reporting on Michigan votes.

Yep, looks like old numbers.

[Ben]

So going by the current decision desk hq map, Biden=227, Trump=214. If we give Trump the projected red win states of PA, NC, and GA, that brings him to 265.

Without either WI, MI, or NV flipping from projected blue to red (they are very close, so it's possible), or finding out about really weird stuff in AZ and it going red, Trump would be done.

From the same map, all Biden needs are the currently projected in his favor states of WI, MI, NV, and AZ to just go to him, and he has 271. No red state flipping needed.

Without at least one currently projected blue state flipping, Trump can't win. I do hope a state flips. The way it looks, this senate will pass any gun control measure brought to them by a vote or two, and of course Biden will sign. The liberal R senators might vote against things like tax increases or more free stuff, but if you think someone like Susan Collins will vote against mag bans or AR bans in some form with Biden or Harris as president, I have a bridge for sale.

Again, going by decision desk. YMMV with other maps.

[WLJ]

CNN analyst wants Trump prosecuted for ‘crimes against democracy’ for daring to question the count

[WLJ]

Reports: County clerk in Michigan reviewing ‘apparently skewed result’ that may have given Dems thousands of votes intended for Trump & John James
https://twitchy.com/dougp-3137/2020/11/04/reports-county-clerk-in-michigan-reviewing-apparently-skewed-result-that-may-have-given-dems-thousands-of-votes-intended-for-trump-john-james/

[WLJ]

    Bronson Stocking | Nov 04, 2020 2:20 PM est

ABC has removed Arizona from a Biden win to "No Results."

[Pb]

Well, I have no idea what is happening.

I guess that is better than I felt this morning... maybe?   

[DittoHead]

So going by the current decision desk hq map, Biden=227, Trump=214. If we give Trump the projected red win states of PA, NC, and GA, that brings him to 265.

Without either WI, MI, or NV flipping from projected blue to red (they are very close, so it's possible), or finding out about really weird stuff in AZ and it going red, Trump would be done.

From the same map, all Biden needs are the currently projected in his favor states of WI, MI, NV, and AZ to just go to him, and he has 271. No red state flipping needed.

Sounds familiar...
 

[MillCreek]

The NYT is now reporting that Wisconsin went to Biden, and the current numbers are Biden 237 and Trump 214.

[MillCreek]

https://apps.npr.org/elections20-interactive/#/president

Associated Press just called Arizona for Biden.  Biden 248 and Trump 214.  

[dogmush]

https://apps.npr.org/elections20-interactive/#/president

Associated Press just called Arizona for Biden.  Biden 248 and Trump 214.  

AP had called Arizona pretty early this morning.  As of 1526 EST the AP still hasn't called NV, MI, PA, NC, GA, or AK, nor the race itself.  If we are going by their "calls" both outcomes are still possible.


Queue the recounts and lawyers that we all knew were coming anyway.

[MillCreek]

Queue the recounts and lawyers that we all knew were coming anyway.

In another thread, AZ called out the money spent on marketing in the campaign.  I see a lot of lawyer billable hours in the future! And the expensive Washington DC type lawyers.