I've lived in Philly, NYC, and a few smaller towns, and I can tell you something you see in big cities with huge cigarette taxes that you don't see in smaller towns--readily available buy one get ones, and buy two get ones. The tobacco companies know that higher taxes mean a higher price per pack, so to keep people smoking and to avoid the tax, they give you a free pack. Even though the average price per pack here in Philly is like $5.50, I pay on average $3-4 a pack with the specials.
And while I have seen B1G1 and B2G1's in other areas, the quantities I'm talking about here are way, way above what you'd see anywhere else. There are two gas stations, a corner market, and a pharmacy within walking distance of my aparment, and I guarantee you all four of them will have at least two different brands with free packs every single day of the week (the pharmacy and corner store usually have about five brands with specials, and we're talking Marlboro and Newports here, not Kools or GPC's.)
So while the state gets a bit of money (nowhere near what they anticipate, of course), the consumer isn't really affected, and the tobacco companies have to suffer through a little bit less profit than they're used to. And of course, no one quits smoking.