So going by the current decision desk hq map, Biden=227, Trump=214. If we give Trump the projected red win states of PA, NC, and GA, that brings him to 265.
Without either WI, MI, or NV flipping from projected blue to red (they are very close, so it's possible), or finding out about really weird stuff in AZ and it going red, Trump would be done.
From the same map, all Biden needs are the currently projected in his favor states of WI, MI, NV, and AZ to just go to him, and he has 271. No red state flipping needed.
Without at least one currently projected blue state flipping, Trump can't win. I do hope a state flips. The way it looks, this senate will pass any gun control measure brought to them by a vote or two, and of course Biden will sign. The liberal R senators might vote against things like tax increases or more free stuff, but if you think someone like Susan Collins will vote against mag bans or AR bans in some form with Biden or Harris as president, I have a bridge for sale.
Again, going by decision desk. YMMV with other maps.