Cost comparison - hybrid equivalent MPG

[Brad Johnson]

A lunch conversation with a friend who works at a Toyota dealership provoked a thought experiment. Our discussion concerned the replacement of a hybrid's battery pack at 90K or so miles, and what the actual equavalent MPG would be if you factored that cost as a "fuel" cost.

It works out like this...

Hybrid avg MPG - (selected arbitrarily)
Lifetime avg fuel cost per gallon - $2.69
Avg mileage for replacement battery pack - 90,000
Avg cost for replacement battery pack - $8,000

Total actual consumption (90K @ 40 mpg) - 2250 gallons
Total actual fuel cost (2250 gallons @ 2.69 per gallon) - $6,052.50 (6.73 cents per mile)
Total cost including replacement battery pack - $14,052.50 (15.61 cents per mile)

Equivalent fuel volume ($14,052.50 total cost @ 2.69 per gallon) - 5223.98 gallons
Equivalent fuel mileage (5223.98 gallons consumed over 90K miles) - 17.23  miles per gallon.

Brad

[Azrael256]

Yup, that matches what I've heard.  Electric cars have been tried before, and they all failed for the same reason.  Batteries just aren't that good yet.

[mtnbkr]

Same here.

That said, a good thing about hybrids is that they get people to change their thinking about how a car should be designed.  As the tech improves and people no longer think they need a V8 to drive around town, overall economy will improve.  

For the time being, you're probably better off buying a car with a 4cyl engine and making sure your tires are properly inflated.  My 4cyl 5spd Camry gets 35mpg on the interstate with two passengers plus the driver at 75mph (did that twice this weekend).  Even though it's a 4cyl, it has no problem maintaining that speed or accelerating to pass other cars.  That's not bad considering it can carry 5 people and a ton of luggage.

Chris

[client32]

I did this experiment a while back, but I'll redo for a good exercise.
All info from Honda Website

Honda Civic Sedan
$14,760
30/40

Honda Civic Hybrid Sedan
$22,150
49/51

Given:
250,000 miles
$3.00 per gallon


Car:                  Hybrid Sedan       Sedan

                             Highway
Gallons used             4,902           6,250
$ on gas                14,706          18,750
Total cost of car       36,856          33,510

                             City

Gallons used             5,102           8,333.3
$ on gas                15,306          25,000
Total cost of car       37,456          39,760



Don't forget that this is if you run the car out to 250,000 miles.  
If I screwed up the math, let me know.

Actual quote from the hone civic hybrid web page:
Hybrid owners are known for their smart thinking

[Jamisjockey]

My used, 2003 Hyundai Elantra cost $8900.  It gets 33mpg average (higher on long highway drives).
I drive 22 miles each way to work, 5 days a week.  At $2.70 a gallon I'll spend just $936 on commuting in a year.

[zahc]

I drive a 99 Corolla that gets 35 highway without fail, even with three guys and the rest of the space crammed full of their toys. Delivering pizza I get almost thirty. And I paid 500 for the car. It's not that slow either, it's just fast enough to not be annoying. I think the manual transmission helps on both the speed perception and mileage.

I chatted with a faculty member with one of the hybrids on the way to class. A whopping 45-55mpg. I don't thinks so.

[crt360]

"The problem, Gerald, is that ever since you got a hybrid car, you've gotten so smug that you love the smell of your own farts!" - Randy Marsh, South Park

Don't overlook the smug problem.

[mtnbkr]

If I screwed up the math, let me know.

Unless Honda's batteries are much better than the Toyota ones, you've left out at least one battery replacement.  That's an additional $8k on the hybrid side.  The accepted wisdom is a new battery every 100k or so.

Chris

[client32]

If I screwed up the math, let me know.

Unless Honda's batteries are much better than the Toyota ones, you've left out at least one battery replacement.  That's an additional $8k on the hybrid side.  The accepted wisdom is a new battery every 100k or so.

Chris

I left it out on purpose.  I should have put another given that all maintance cost would be zero for this.

I did this in a college class when one of the students mentioned wanting a hybrid for the gas milage.  It was an eye opener for most of the sheep .... I mean students.  I then asked the initial student why he/she wanted a hybrid, the response was environment .... More fun.

[mtnbkr]

I left it out on purpose.  I should have put another given that all maintance cost would be zero for this.

Fair enough.

Chris

[Northwoods]

Hybrid avg MPG - (selected arbitrarily)
Lifetime avg fuel cost per gallon - $2.69
Avg mileage for replacement battery pack - 90,000
Avg cost for replacement battery pack - $8,000

Total actual consumption (90K @ 40 mpg) - 2250 gallons
Total actual fuel cost (2250 gallons @ 2.69 per gallon) - $6,052.50 (6.73 cents per mile)
Total cost including replacement battery pack - $14,052.50 (15.61 cents per mile)

Equivalent fuel volume ($14,052.50 total cost @ 2.69 per gallon) - 5223.98 gallons
Equivalent fuel mileage (5223.98 gallons consumed over 90K miles) - 17.23  miles per gallon.

Bump that average fule milage up to 50, and extend the battery life to 100k (more in line with published figures, even though yours are more realistic) and the "equivalent fuel milage" is 20.1mpg.  Considering that virtually any non-hybrid example of the same (economy class) cars are rated for a minimum of probably 25mpg in the city and it doesn't take a genius to see the fallacy of the hybrid from an economic standpoint.  Even factoring in the (IIRC) $3500 tax credit that is (or was) available that still only gives you 27.2mpg equiv.   Keep the car to 250k (so add another battery replacement) and the number goes to 25.9mpg.  Of course, if you only keep the car for 75k, you can get the tax credit, the fuel savings and pawn the battery replacement costs off onto someone else.  Lots of ways to make it look better (or worse) depending on the assumptions you make.  Hmmm, maybe the cost comparisons aren't so simple.  Still an interesting thought exercise.

[RaggedClaws]

It's so funny that this was posted yesterday, since I was doing a cost comparison for the Toyota Highlander V6 4WD versus its hybrid version yesterday on a whim.  Assuming the cost of gas at $3.00 per gallon and 12,000 miles driven per year (more than I drive these days), it would take 14 years (167K miles) to break even with the upfront price differential ($6590 more for the hybrid version).  

Raising the cost of gasoline to $5.00 per gallon, it would take 8 years (100K miles) to break even.  That's not figuring in the cost of a new battery, which would be incurred before the break-even point in either scenario, and that is assuming the MPG figures at www.fueleconomy.gov are realistic.

I didn't figure in the tax credit though.

[The Rabbi]

What happens to the calculations if you bump the gas price to $6/gal, which is where it is in Germany right now?
I am not disagreeing that the hybrids are a feel-good solution, just asking about other scenarios.

[RaggedClaws]

In my scenario (Toyota V6 4WD), with a gas price of $6 per gallon, it would take 83K miles to break even (almost 7 years at 12K miles per year).  

Again, this does not figure in any tax advantages to buying a hybrid vehicle, nor any difference in maintenance costs (including the cost of a new battery).

By the way, my calculations assumed 50/50 highway/city driving since that's about what I do and it was simple to calculate

[Brad Johnson]

At $6 per gallon the hybrid equivalent MPG is 25.12

Brad

[Iain]

Diesel.

We discussed this on THR the other day, I was surprised to read that diesels aren't that common over your way. A friend has got 47mpg averaged over 40,000 miles out of his.

[mtnbkr]

The only problem is that diesel in cars tends to be found in smaller cars where a gas engine would perform nearly as well.  In addition, diesel is roughly the same price as premium unleaded, erasing much of the savings over gasoline.  I played with the numbers and it wasn't much of a savings if any.

Chris

[Iain]

I'm a little surprised by that, diesel is more expensive than petrol here but diesel cars are selling in ever increasing numbers. This friend drives a Vauxhall Vectra with a 2.2 engine, it's not a 5l V8 but it's a moderately big car.

[Harold Tuttle]

american diesel fuel's current formulation is a maintenance issue in the new european TDI engines

VW is taking it as a loss leader to gain US market share

[roo_ster]

Of course, if you only keep the car for 75k, you can get the tax credit, the fuel savings and pawn the battery replacement costs off onto someone else.

IMO, trading off a hybrid at 75K miles will not "...pawn the battery replacement costs off onto someone else," I'd bet.  The owner will likely eat that cost in reduced resale value of the hybrid.  High-mile (70K+) hybrids will be worth bupkis, while their non-hybrid equivalents still have a goodly portion of their value.  I'm sure we have all been astonished at how a 100K+ Honda Accord still commands serious $$$.  That is because they likley have another 150K miles left before a major, costly repair.

To give some perspective, the most cherry 1998 Honda Civic 4 dr EX with 80K miles (10k/year) commands* $6510, while an average example commands $5300.  If that car was a hybrid, it would have an $8000 sword of Damocles hanging over it that will fall at any time.  How much would YOU pay for such a vehicle?  Likely, its only value would be to a "U-Pull-It" parts yard.  Say, $1000.  You can add $5510 ($6510-$1000) to the cost of owning that hybrid (in lost resale/trade-in value).  You never really know the true cost of your vehicle until you resell it or trade it in.

If you really want to save $$$ on fuel, buy a a diesel.

* kbb.com.  I know that to get accurate market value, you gotta shop the car in your particular market, but this is close enough for our purposes.

[Headless Thompson Gunner]

People who buy hybrids don't do it for the (nonexistent) economic advantage.  They do it beecause they're greenies who hate gasoline and carbon dioxide.  Conventional gasoline cars are "immoral."  Hybrids are more "socially responsible" and "earth-friendly."

The extra cost of ownership associated with the hybrid is, in their estimations, the price you pay for "doing the right thing."

It's more about social acceptance and mutual self-gratification than any tangible or practical improvement.

[mtnbkr]

I hope they keep buying them.  The more people buy them, the more incentive companies have in making this work.  I think they'll eventually give us the full benefit that's being promised now.  

Chris

[richyoung]

The "full benefit" of millionso f tones of acid-laden battery packs to be disposed of.    Think they don't what your dead flashlight batteries in the garbage?  Where are you gona put that dead hybrid battery pack?

[RaggedClaws]

I found some interesting information on the Hybrid Tax Credit...

http://taxes.about.com/od/deductionscredits/a/hybridtaxcredit.htm

Page 3 of the article lists the actual one-time credit for various models.  It is interesting to note that this credit phases itself out once a manufacturer has sold a certain number of hybrid cars (60,000).  

The Toyota Highlander V6 4WD Hybrid has a maximum credit of $2600.  Assuming I can take full advantage of this (there are alot of limitations), then at best it will lower the upfront price differential from $6590 to $3990.

With gas at $6 per gallon and my other assumptions the same, it would take over 4 years to break even (50K miles).  With gas at $3 per gallon, it would take over 8 years to break even (100K miles).  In the latter case, the battery would have to be replaced before the break-even point.

[mtnbkr]

The "full benefit" of millionso f tones of acid-laden battery packs to be disposed of.    Think they don't what your dead flashlight batteries in the garbage?  Where are you gona put that dead hybrid battery pack?

I was thinking more along the lines of batteries that aren't polution nightmares and that last upwards of 200k miles before a replacement is necessary.  I was also thinking about hybrids or similar vehicles that could get much greater gas mileage than current models.  In other words, I was talking about what continuous refinement of the technology could bring us in the future.  Just like the car industry in it's infancy, we'll have fits and starts and even dead end technology.  However, just like the auto industry went from the Stanley Steamer to Honda Accords, we'll go from current hybrid technology to something that works so well we'll wonder why anyone would use something else.

Chris