War is nearly always about land and resources.
Ukraine is too strategically placed for Russia to roll over and let it be absorbed into the western empire. I don't deny that energy and it being a breadbasket is important but the EU/NATO thing is huge to them.
Russia’s government revenue is something like 43%+ from oil and natural gas.
GDP is close to 50% energy.
Ukraine’s tariffs and development of Black Sea natural gas (oddly now 80% controlled by Russia after they annexed Crimea) and shale fields (most of which are found in the Donbas region which - coincidentally Russia decided needed to be protected from Ukraine) threaten a not insignificant chunk of that revenue.
Given that, assuming Putin couldn’t control Ukraine’s energy policy through soft power, and if NATO/EU had been off the table: Does he still invade?
I think yes - probably faster. Western interest in Ukraine makes invading more dangerous and expensive, not less.
Of course, the flip side is absent western interest it is likely he
could have controlled Ukraine with soft power.