Do you realize for much of my life the democrats held congress? I have seen these epitaphs being written before. "It's the end of conservatism." "The days of the republican party are over." It was HORRIBLE after Nixon left office. We had two rather incompetent presidents afterwords -- the second one especially so.
I am too young to remember those years. However, the demographic and cultural arguments stand. I do not see how Reps can attract young people, minorities, and women, with the current menu. Taking into account the younger generations and minorities will be an increasing part of the electorate, gaining their support is the only way to remain politically relevant.
You don't see how closing down trade routes would affect our econmy? Good grief. Historians will hash out the reasons why.
I should have qualified to say "affect negatively long-term". Yeah, sure it will affect us, but we are sitting on a continent of resources, and likely a large amount of now extractable oil. We have relatively easy communication with another continent (South America) and if we keep a meaningful Atlantic fleet, also with Africa, and Europe. The Pacific distances are just too great. Why do we need to stick our noses in Asia and vie with China there?
Cut routes are not necessarily a bad thing. Look at the major examples in history. The Ottomans cut off land trade to the Orient. So, Europeans built ocean going ships, circled Africa, and discovered the Americas. I think that worked out pretty well for the Europeans. Not so much for the Ottomans. Similarly, the USSR essentially cut off itself and Eastern Europe from the rest of the world. The free societies of the West ultimately won the Cold War not by military superiority but through the nuclear deterrent, superior technology, and stronger economy.
The only real problem in terms of resources is China sits on some rare earths, which are needed in high-tech devices. We'll just have to find a technological way around it, if needed.
it recounts how two economic downturns fed Germany's Nazi Party's rise to power and the subsequent WW2. They had "looming economic and demographic crises" as well -- and that is what helped feed their powerlust. China has, already, the totalitarian government, so the rest ought to be so easy "a caveman could do it."
First off, the economic crisis simply pushed traditional parties out of the way to allow the Nazis access to power. The economic crisis did not prompt expansionism. Nazi Germany was doing pretty well economically before the war, although some historians maintain it would have been unsustainable. Expansionism had purely ethnic and political reasons, although Nazis talked about running out of space, which modern intensive agricultural methods would have solved. If anything, they had a lot of young population before WW1, which got culled in the war, then another smaller boom preceding WW2.
In contrast, China has the opposite demographic crisis - aging population. Because of one-child policy over decades, they are looking at a demographic heavily skewed towards the aging side. They will have to find a way to provide for those people or face upheavals. You can't fight wars with seniors, so this supports my thesis better. Furthermore, the economic crisis is one of planned economy and empty cities, when artificially boosted capacity outstrips domestic demand. No matter what happens, they cannot sustain that, unless they bomb their own cities, so they can rebuild them.
Maintaining a strong military is NOT what is killing us economically. It's the entitlement society that doing that. Should we somehow magically get that pert under control the military expenditures won't kill us.
Normally, maybe. But for the past 11 years, military spending has been by far the bigger culprit.
Entitlements, however, are things that I promised to go back to. So, riddle me this. Reps are supposed to be fiscally conservative, yet they support Medicare and Medicaid, and I almost constantly see AARP ads in California about how "I am a senior, and a voter, so don't you be touching my drugs or benefits, or I kick your bum politician butt out of office." As a guy below 40, I look at this and just shake my head knowing those things cost hundreds of billions of dollars per year, and add to the national debt that will affect the second half of my life.
