Author Topic: The next Obama  (Read 80588 times)

longeyes

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Re: The next Obama
« Reply #275 on: November 19, 2012, 01:37:05 PM »
I am too young to remember those years. However, the demographic and cultural arguments stand. I do not see how Reps can attract young people, minorities, and women, with the current menu. Taking into account the younger generations and minorities will be an increasing part of the electorate, gaining their support is the only way to remain politically relevant.

I should have qualified to say "affect negatively long-term". Yeah, sure it will affect us, but we are sitting on a continent of resources, and likely a large amount of now extractable oil. We have relatively easy communication with another continent (South America) and if we keep a meaningful Atlantic fleet, also with Africa, and Europe. The Pacific distances are just too great. Why do we need to stick our noses in Asia and vie with China there?

Cut routes are not necessarily a bad thing. Look at the major examples in history. The Ottomans cut off land trade to the Orient. So, Europeans built ocean going ships, circled Africa, and discovered the Americas. I think that worked out pretty well for the Europeans. Not so much for the Ottomans. Similarly, the USSR essentially cut off itself and Eastern Europe from the rest of the world. The free societies of the West ultimately won the Cold War not by military superiority but through the nuclear deterrent, superior technology, and stronger economy.

The only real problem in terms of resources is China sits on some rare earths, which are needed in high-tech devices. We'll just have to find a technological way around it, if needed.

First off, the economic crisis simply pushed traditional parties out of the way to allow the Nazis access to power. The economic crisis did not prompt expansionism. Nazi Germany was doing pretty well economically before the war, although some historians maintain it would have been unsustainable. Expansionism had purely ethnic and political reasons, although Nazis talked about running out of space, which modern intensive agricultural methods would have solved. If anything, they had a lot of young population before WW1, which got culled in the war, then another smaller boom preceding WW2.

In contrast, China has the opposite demographic crisis - aging population. Because of one-child policy over decades, they are looking at a demographic heavily skewed towards the aging side. They will have to find a way to provide for those people or face upheavals. You can't fight wars with seniors, so this supports my thesis better. Furthermore, the economic crisis is one of planned economy and empty cities, when artificially boosted capacity outstrips domestic demand. No matter what happens, they cannot sustain that, unless they bomb their own cities, so they can rebuild them.

Normally, maybe. But for the past 11 years, military spending has been by far the bigger culprit.

Entitlements, however, are things that I promised to go back to. So, riddle me this. Reps are supposed to be fiscally conservative, yet they support Medicare and Medicaid, and I almost constantly see AARP ads in California about how "I am a senior, and a voter, so don't you be touching my drugs or benefits, or I kick your bum politician butt out of office." As a guy below 40, I look at this and just shake my head knowing those things cost hundreds of billions of dollars per year, and add to the national debt that will affect the second half of my life.

The trouble with all this is the "we" you posit.  You think that "we" is going to prosper under the circumstances you offer here?  

And youth does not ensure a strong and thriving culture or civilization.  It might just constitute a first-rate pool of slaves.  Remember that "seniors," with their aged limbs but eternally young technology, can press The Button and exterminate untold numbers of youngsters with the flick of a wrist.
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TommyGunn

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Re: The next Obama
« Reply #276 on: November 19, 2012, 01:38:44 PM »
The Brits were the world's policeman back in the 18th century. ;/

We didn't need them to protect us... from them.  And we didn't need some mythical 3rd party super-liberator-nice-guy-worlds-policeman Nation to save us from the Brits, either.  We found our own liberty.  The rest of the world can do the same.  The big reason most of our "nation building" attempts fail is because those countries don't WANT the governments we put in place for them.  It's wasted blood, and wasted treasure, borrowed from an army of accountants that have no love of our liberty.

OK.  Get ready for rule by countries that have no love of liberty. :facepalm:
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Ron

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Re: The next Obama
« Reply #277 on: November 19, 2012, 01:42:37 PM »
OK.  Get ready for rule by countries that have no love of liberty. :facepalm:

I'm already experiencing that, it isn't going to get better either IMHO.

People aren't going to vote for liberty when they can't even define what liberty means.
For the invisible things of him since the creation of the world are clearly seen, being perceived through the things that are made, even his everlasting power and divinity, that they may be without excuse. Because knowing God, they didn’t glorify him as God, and didn’t give thanks, but became vain in their reasoning, and their senseless heart was darkened. Professing themselves to be wise, they became fools.

TommyGunn

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Re: The next Obama
« Reply #278 on: November 19, 2012, 01:51:13 PM »
I am too young to remember those years. However, the demographic and cultural arguments stand. I do not see how Reps can attract young people, minorities, and women, with the current menu. Taking into account the younger generations and minorities will be an increasing part of the electorate, gaining their support is the only way to remain politically relevant.

I should have qualified to say "affect negatively long-term". Yeah, sure it will affect us, but we are sitting on a continent of resources, and likely a large amount of now extractable oil. We have relatively easy communication with another continent (South America) and if we keep a meaningful Atlantic fleet, also with Africa, and Europe. The Pacific distances are just too great. Why do we need to stick our noses in Asia and vie with China there?

Cut routes are not necessarily a bad thing. Look at the major examples in history. The Ottomans cut off land trade to the Orient. So, Europeans built ocean going ships, circled Africa, and discovered the Americas. I think that worked out pretty well for the Europeans. Not so much for the Ottomans. Similarly, the USSR essentially cut off itself and Eastern Europe from the rest of the world. The free societies of the West ultimately won the Cold War not by military superiority but through the nuclear deterrent, superior technology, and stronger economy.

The only real problem in terms of resources is China sits on some rare earths, which are needed in high-tech devices. We'll just have to find a technological way around it, if needed.

First off, the economic crisis simply pushed traditional parties out of the way to allow the Nazis access to power. The economic crisis did not prompt expansionism. Nazi Germany was doing pretty well economically before the war, although some historians maintain it would have been unsustainable. Expansionism had purely ethnic and political reasons, although Nazis talked about running out of space, which modern intensive agricultural methods would have solved. If anything, they had a lot of young population before WW1, which got culled in the war, then another smaller boom preceding WW2.

In contrast, China has the opposite demographic crisis - aging population. Because of one-child policy over decades, they are looking at a demographic heavily skewed towards the aging side. They will have to find a way to provide for those people or face upheavals. You can't fight wars with seniors, so this supports my thesis better. Furthermore, the economic crisis is one of planned economy and empty cities, when artificially boosted capacity outstrips domestic demand. No matter what happens, they cannot sustain that, unless they bomb their own cities, so they can rebuild them.

Normally, maybe. But for the past 11 years, military spending has been by far the bigger culprit.

Entitlements, however, are things that I promised to go back to. So, riddle me this. Reps are supposed to be fiscally conservative, yet they support Medicare and Medicaid, and I almost constantly see AARP ads in California about how "I am a senior, and a voter, so don't you be touching my drugs or benefits, or I kick your bum politician butt out of office." As a guy below 40, I look at this and just shake my head knowing those things cost hundreds of billions of dollars per year, and add to the national debt that will affect the second half of my life.

China has the , IIRC, the largest standing army on the face of the planet.  What they lack is any realistic way of projecting it, but they will be able to project themselves into the Western Pacific more and more over the next decade or two.
Again I recomend Nagorski's book about Hitler.  The other political parties were not so much pushed aside by the economic crises they were traunced by Hitler's national socialist movement, usually though those parties wound up being their own worst enemy.

Cutting trade routes is not going to be a good thing for us despite how europe reacted to what the Ottomans did.
Such an act might prompt a war.  It won't, of course, under Obama -- he'll simply apologize. [tinfoil]


There were demographic and cultural arguments made back in Nixon's day too.  They changed.  Everyone has a tendency to draw straight-line projections and assume this will pan out in time, but that isn't always true.

Certainly, getting the younger electorate on board is important, but it is important to educate them that we can no longer be an entitlement society without bringing it down on our ears.  We just can't afford it any longer.
That's going to be a hard case to sell.
MOLON LABE   "Through ignorance of what is good and what is bad, the life of men is greatly perplexed." ~~ Cicero

TommyGunn

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Re: The next Obama
« Reply #279 on: November 19, 2012, 01:55:35 PM »
I'm already experiencing that, it isn't going to get better either IMHO.
If you think what we have now is what I mean by "countries that have no love of liberty" then you have no idea in the world what real tyranny really is. 
People aren't going to vote for liberty when they can't even define what liberty means.

True.  But those peoples' idea of what liberty is is what leads to "countries that have no love of liberty."  We're not there yet.
MOLON LABE   "Through ignorance of what is good and what is bad, the life of men is greatly perplexed." ~~ Cicero

kgbsquirrel

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Re: The next Obama
« Reply #280 on: November 19, 2012, 01:56:10 PM »
Fifth largest. The PRC hasn't had the single largest since they watched the worlds fourth largest get disassembled in 28 days back in 1991.

TommyGunn

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Re: The next Obama
« Reply #281 on: November 19, 2012, 02:00:03 PM »
Fifth largest. The PRC hasn't had the single largest since they watched the worlds fourth largest get disassembled in 28 days back in 1991.

I stand corrected.  It's still pretty good size and plenty ruthless -- ask the Dali Llama.
MOLON LABE   "Through ignorance of what is good and what is bad, the life of men is greatly perplexed." ~~ Cicero

longeyes

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Re: The next Obama
« Reply #282 on: November 19, 2012, 02:08:26 PM »
They know what liberty is: it's that tingling at the frontier of their nerve-endings.
"Domari nolo."

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TommyGunn

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Re: The next Obama
« Reply #283 on: November 19, 2012, 02:10:39 PM »
They know what liberty is: it's that tingling at the frontier of their nerve-endings.
  Okay.... I'll keep that in mind.  :lol:
MOLON LABE   "Through ignorance of what is good and what is bad, the life of men is greatly perplexed." ~~ Cicero

AZRedhawk44

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Re: The next Obama
« Reply #284 on: November 19, 2012, 02:11:50 PM »
I stand corrected.  It's still pretty good size and plenty ruthless -- ask the Dali Llama.

I normally hate being the red pen type, but mispelling this one always irks me.

Dalai Lama

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"But whether the Constitution really be one thing, or another, this much is certain - that it has either authorized such a government as we have had, or has been powerless to prevent it. In either case, it is unfit to exist."
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TommyGunn

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Re: The next Obama
« Reply #285 on: November 19, 2012, 02:13:43 PM »
I normally hate being the red pen type, but mispelling this one always irks me.

Dalai Lama

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Thanks....I knew I was spelling it wrong but had ZIP idea what was correct.   I apologize for your irkinessisity.  ;)
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Perd Hapley

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Re: The next Obama
« Reply #286 on: November 19, 2012, 02:26:48 PM »
I am too young to remember those years. However, the demographic and cultural arguments stand. I do not see how Reps can attract young people, minorities, and women, with the current menu. Taking into account the younger generations and minorities will be an increasing part of the electorate, gaining their support is the only way to remain politically relevant.


You keep saying that the GOP has to abandon its principles to stay relevant. What is the point of keeping the brand alive, while killing everything it stands for? Why not just switch allegiance to the Dems, which clearly have the branding and marketing you think it should aim for?

Ok, first let me ask if there is some part of the Republican Party that future demographics will support, and why do you think young people/immigrants will support that, and not the other things?
« Last Edit: November 19, 2012, 02:39:42 PM by fistful »
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Ron

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Re: The next Obama
« Reply #287 on: November 19, 2012, 02:27:30 PM »
If you think what we have now is what I mean by "countries that have no love of liberty" then you have no idea in the world what real tyranny really is.  
True.  But those peoples' idea of what liberty is is what leads to "countries that have no love of liberty."  We're not there yet.


Regarding tyranny,  the framework is in place, the institutions are in place, all that is needed is a little more time. Once those who have vague memories of what this country was supposed to stand for have shaken off their mortal coil the rest is just history.

History, written by the statists who will continue to mold the impressionable minds with their version of history. The true history will go down the memory hole with liberty and truth, swooooosh!

We are so far gone they are already rewriting history in real time. We watch it happen in the MSM, the stories they choose, the narratives they weave and the blatant lies they tell right to our faces.

Truth? What is truth?
For the invisible things of him since the creation of the world are clearly seen, being perceived through the things that are made, even his everlasting power and divinity, that they may be without excuse. Because knowing God, they didn’t glorify him as God, and didn’t give thanks, but became vain in their reasoning, and their senseless heart was darkened. Professing themselves to be wise, they became fools.

TommyGunn

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Re: The next Obama
« Reply #288 on: November 19, 2012, 02:35:04 PM »
Regarding tyranny,  the framework is in place, the institutions are in place, all that is needed is a little more time. Once those who have vague memories of what this country was supposed to stand for have shaken off their mortal coil the rest is just history.

History, written by the statists who will continue to mold the impressionable minds with their version of history. The true history will go down the memory hole with liberty and truth, swooooosh!

We are so far gone they are already rewriting history in real time. We watch it happen in the MSM, the stories they choose, the narratives they weave and the blatant lies they tell right to our faces.

Truth? What is truth?

Ok, I guess it's all over with.  I'll sell my guns and burn my books ...my more, um, "tendentious" books and welcome our new overlords.  [popcorn]


:police: :police: :police: :police: :police: :police: :police: :police: :police:
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Ron

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Re: The next Obama
« Reply #289 on: November 19, 2012, 02:39:32 PM »
Unfortunately I don't have any guns to sell, they were all lost in a tragic boating accident   :P



For the invisible things of him since the creation of the world are clearly seen, being perceived through the things that are made, even his everlasting power and divinity, that they may be without excuse. Because knowing God, they didn’t glorify him as God, and didn’t give thanks, but became vain in their reasoning, and their senseless heart was darkened. Professing themselves to be wise, they became fools.

longeyes

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Re: The next Obama
« Reply #290 on: November 19, 2012, 02:43:04 PM »
Truth?

God is on the side of the better hackers.
"Domari nolo."

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Walt Kowalski: Ever notice how you come across somebody once in a while you shouldn't have messed with? That's me.

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TommyGunn

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Re: The next Obama
« Reply #291 on: November 19, 2012, 02:48:20 PM »
Truth?

God is on the side of the better hackers.

THREAD DRIFT! :P
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Monkeyleg

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Re: The next Obama
« Reply #292 on: November 19, 2012, 04:56:36 PM »
CAnnonneer, I'm sorry you don't like my analogy. It was the best I could come up with in my sleep-deprived state.

To answer your question, though, there are a whole slew of reasons why Romney lost, but conservatism isn't one of them.

First, Romney's history in Massachusetts worked against him with the conservative base. He was considered "Obama-lite", as so many here have referred to him. By the time he was able to articulate his conservative ideology--whether it was real or not--it was too late.

Second, the Obama campaign defined him early, painting him as a rich guy only looking to help his rich buddies. This wasn't true, and has never been true of Romney (his charitable contributions and charitable works show him to be much more compassionate than Obama will ever be). Nevertheless, Obama was able to embed that image of Romney in the public's mind.

Third, Romney's personality doesn't excite people. He didn't ignite passions. When he responded to Obama's "you didn't build that" remark, he showed passion for the first time in his campaign.

Fourth, Romney was being too nice. He was up against a campaign that would do anything to win (witness Benghazi), and Romney was using gentleman's rules. He should have used that third debate to politely call Obama out as a liar, and worse.

Obama also bought votes by pandering to various parts of the Democrat base, giving all of them something paid for by taxpayers. He used jealousy and class warfare to incite hatred on a level I don't think I've seen before. Obama ran one of the most vicious campaigns in political history. The constant charges of racism, the urgings to his followers to "get revenge", the smearing of primary candidates like Herman Cain, the outright lies, and the complicity of the media in covering up a scandal bigger than Watergate make this election one that will be viewed for decades as an example of the worst in politics.

Edited to add: A huge reason Obama won is that people know that painful cuts are necessary to keep our country from turning into Greece. Obama made people think that the necessary cuts will be made, but somebody else will feel the pain. When Romney spoke, those same people came away knowing they'd have to give up one or more of their public handouts.

Conservative ideology is never out of date. It's what this country was built on. Progressivism is a relatively new concept, and it's had to be disguised over the years in order to reach the point where it is now unremarkable that half the population is demanding that the other half give them significant portions of the fruits of their labor. It's almost a given that those who pay nearly all of the taxes are painted as villains, and portrayed as not giving their "fair share" when the other half pays no share. (Of course, those at the top of the progressive ladder get a pass on their wealth, no matter how it was accumulated. Joe Kennedy the Irish gangster, John Kerry the Gigolo, George Soros and Warren Buffet, crooked players both of them, get a pass).

Quote
My point is that as its economy worsens, a modern country cannot become more conservative. Conservatism thrives in prosperous countries. We are not prosperous enough to maintain or develop conservatism. The election results confirm my observation.

To the contrary, progressivism can only be maintained in a prosperous society, unless the people are content to live in misery (see USSR). You can't get blood from a turnip. As the economy worsens, conservatism is the only alternative to bankruptcy, whether the 50% feeding at the public trough like it or not.


« Last Edit: November 19, 2012, 05:08:01 PM by Monkeyleg »

Ron

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Re: The next Obama
« Reply #293 on: November 19, 2012, 06:27:14 PM »
What is commonly called progressivism is not relatively new. New name, old ideas.

State enforced collectivism run by an elite oligarchy is as old as human history.  
For the invisible things of him since the creation of the world are clearly seen, being perceived through the things that are made, even his everlasting power and divinity, that they may be without excuse. Because knowing God, they didn’t glorify him as God, and didn’t give thanks, but became vain in their reasoning, and their senseless heart was darkened. Professing themselves to be wise, they became fools.

Perd Hapley

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Re: The next Obama
« Reply #294 on: November 19, 2012, 06:33:05 PM »
What is commonly called progressivism is not relatively new. New name, old ideas.

State enforced collectivism run by an elite oligarchy is as old as human history.  


This is so. "Conservatism" is the actual progressivism/liberalism.
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kgbsquirrel

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Re: The next Obama
« Reply #295 on: November 19, 2012, 06:37:40 PM »
I normally hate being the red pen type, but mispelling this one always irks me.

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If I ever own a llama I'm naming it Dalai.  :laugh:

Monkeyleg

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Re: The next Obama
« Reply #296 on: November 19, 2012, 06:52:00 PM »
Progressivism as we now know it is the product of the Marxists of the late 19th/early 20th centuries, with their ideas being embraced by the Progressive Party born in WI, codified into laws by Wilson and Roosevelt, made en vogue by the Kennedy's and celebrities, and now exposed for all to see by Obama. It's not the same as the serfdom of the Middle Ages.

Perd Hapley

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Re: The next Obama
« Reply #297 on: November 19, 2012, 07:03:33 PM »
Progressivism as we now know it is the product of the Marxists of the late 19th/early 20th centuries, with their ideas being embraced by the Progressive Party born in WI, codified into laws by Wilson and Roosevelt, made en vogue by the Kennedy's and celebrities, and now exposed for all to see by Obama. It's not the same as the serfdom of the Middle Ages.

Except that it is.
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Ron

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Re: The next Obama
« Reply #298 on: November 19, 2012, 07:05:36 PM »
Progressivism as we now know it is the product of the Marxists of the late 19th/early 20th centuries, with their ideas being embraced by the Progressive Party born in WI, codified into laws by Wilson and Roosevelt, made en vogue by the Kennedy's and celebrities, and now exposed for all to see by Obama. It's not the same as the serfdom of the Middle Ages.

...and the end result is the oligarchs (government elites and crony capitalists) tend their human farm(s) using collectivist schemes repeating the same patterns found in history. Keeping the farm animals fed, happy and well taken care of has increased productivity!  

The crony capitalist welfare state is modern feudalism.

  
For the invisible things of him since the creation of the world are clearly seen, being perceived through the things that are made, even his everlasting power and divinity, that they may be without excuse. Because knowing God, they didn’t glorify him as God, and didn’t give thanks, but became vain in their reasoning, and their senseless heart was darkened. Professing themselves to be wise, they became fools.

Monkeyleg

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Re: The next Obama
« Reply #299 on: November 19, 2012, 07:29:54 PM »
It is except that the people really do have the ability to vote their "masters" out of office. They don't do it, though. They just trade their freedom for Obamaphones.