Armed Polite Society
Main Forums => The Roundtable => Topic started by: WLJ on May 10, 2024, 08:49:10 AM
-
Got a big one, several actually, on the way.
https://www.spaceweather.com/
ARE WE ABOUT TO EXPERIENCE A NEW CARRINGTON EVENT? No. AR3664 is indeed a 'Carrington-class' sunspot, but the CMEs it hurled toward Earth over the past few days are not as potent as the monster CME of Sept. 1, 1859. NOAA says we might experience a severe geomagnetic storm when the CMEs arrive this weekend. If geomagnetic storms were hurricanes, 'severe' would be category 4. The Carrington Event was category 5 or greater. So this is no Carrington Event. Even so, category 4 is pretty intense--if it happens. Stay tuned for some great auroras! Aurora alerts: SMS Text
FIVE CMEs ARE HEADING FOR EARTH: Great sunspot AR3664 has hurled an astonishing five CMEs toward Earth. They're all in this frenetic 2-day coronagraph movie from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO)
...
The two bright objects are Jupiter (left) and Venus (right). The CMEs will miss those planets and hit Earth instead.
According to a NOAA forecast model, the first three CMEs could merge for form a "Cannibal CME." Cannibal CMEs form when fast-moving CMEs overtake and gobble up slower CMEs in front of them. Internal shock waves created by such CME collisions do an good job sparking geomagnetic storms when they strike Earth's magnetic field.
The Cannibal CME is expected to arrive on May 11th. It alone could spark a strong (G3) geomagnetic storm. With two more CMEs following close behind, storm levels could become extreme (G4), sparking auroras at mid- to low-latitudes across Europe and the USA.
:
-
The one thing to remember about "category 4 vs category 5" is that the Carrington event occurred in a time pre-sensitive electronics. The simple electronics of the time were affected, but also easily repaired / brought back online. Who knows where the line is, but I suspect the modern world will be majorly affected by something some degree more than we have experienced, but some degree less than Carrington.
-
Well it’s been nice visiting with you all.
I guess we all go Amish 05/11
-
When they say "geomagnetic storms," does that mean actual, like, thunderstorms? Will there be more, less, or no difference in "regular" atmospheric storm activity?
If I had to guess, I'd expect that the extra excitation would tend to dissipate the atmospheric charges causing lightning, so there'd be fewer lightning strokes across the planet.
Yes, no, maybe?
Pardon my ignorance.
Terry, 230RN
-
It's supposed to be good naked eye viewing in my AO, starting at dusk. They don't mention if it's civil, nautical, or astronomical, so that can mean anything from 2130-2300 this time of year. Tough going for a dude who's normally in the rack by 2130. :laugh:
-
We were warned
https://www.wired.com/story/sun-storm-end-civilization/
-
G5
(https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/styles/pad_sides_large/public/top_news/G5%20Alert%20-%20May%2010%2C%202024%20%282%29_2.png?itok=5LFRmYtZ)
-
For kicks I'm going to start randomly checking my GPS error. A G5 storm could bump error up towards the old selective availability days of the '90s.
-
(https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/animations/ovation/north/latest.jpg?time=1715390821000)
-
Oh cool, I might get to see … nope, cloudy.
-
Oh cool, I might get to see … nope, cloudy.
Raining.
Bummer.
-
Any one blame climate change yet?
(https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/styles/pad_sides_large/public/top_news/R3%20Event%2003%20May%20%20%281%29.png?itok=zK8OHver)
-
It should be spectacular here in Minnesota, but there's so much light pollution here I can barely even see any stars. :mad: Everyone has their overly-bright porch lights on, my neighbor has motion activated security flood lights that stay on most of the time, plus the city replaced the old street lights with LED fixtures that have a lot of light spill. This used to be a really dark street just a couple of years ago and I could see the Milky Way on a clear night.
-
40N, 105W 11:50 PM MDT nothing here, but 76% cloud cover. Someone should have told the Weather Service to make sure it was clear tonight and tomorrow night.
I wonder what it looks like from the space station.
I guess I had a dumb question about atmospheric weather up above.
Terry, 230RN
-
Looking at sat images nearly the entire country was overcast
-
I saw nothing at dusk, but when I got up at 0100 to pee (freakin' old age!) I looked out the window and saw greyscale action with my naked eye. I was too lazy to go outside though. I went out at 0430 this morning and couldn't see anything with my naked eye, but put on the NODs and got some video action. Obviously no colors under NODs, but (after a few seconds of gratuitous satellite footage) you can see some upward appearing motion of the EM storm.
https://youtu.be/e7Mqq8huyrU
I should have read up on photographing the aurora. I saw people posting some really cool color images from not too far away from me. Apparently the trick is a time exposure with a dSLR or night mode with a phone. Interestingly, I did use my phone (not on night mode), and when looking through the phonecam sensor, the (still greyscale) aurora was really going off, but in the photos I took, you can barely see anything.
-
Family members got some good photos last night surprisingly enough. I really didn't expect we'd see much this far south and was too lazy to go out and check. I'm going to run up the hill a little tonight where the northern horizon is very visible. Maybe I'll get lucky and see some remnants of the aurora.
-
F'm going to run up the hill a little tonight where the northern horizon is very visible. Maybe I'll get lucky and see some remnants of the aurora.
People only 100 miles NE of me were reporting "360deg auroras". From my place, it was only visible in the North. I'm going to try again tonight as well, and will try to suck it up and be out there at zero dark thirty.
-
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/g5-conditions-reached-yet-again
(https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/styles/pad_sides_large/public/top_news/Copy%20of%20G5%20Alert%20Template.png?itok=gWrQIAnk)
(https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/styles/pad_sides_large/public/top_news/X-class%20Flares%20Continue%20to%20Occur.png?itok=JtMhAfeP)
-
Two G5s in rapid secession and so far no major problems that I've seen.
More storms on the way
-
Damn that global warming.
-
Damn that global warming.
First an earthquake then an eclipse and now this. I guess when Betelgeuse blows we can finally sue the oil companies out of business.
-
Now we know the truth!
Clever: Jews Charging Up Space Laser Tell Everyone Those Are Just The Northern Lights
https://babylonbee.com/news/clever-jews-charging-up-space-laser-tell-everyone-those-are-just-the-northern-lights
-
Elon reporting some degraded service with Starlink. No other details.
-
On another place I visit someone mentioned that they were 50 years old and this is the first time they saw the Aurora Australis and was wondering what caused them.
By far the most entertaining and surprisingly accurate answer was: It is the sun farting and the earth's atmosphere getting dutch ovened.
It somehow works. :rofl:
bob
-
...
-
Looks like it will hit G5 and K9 (the highest number of the K scale) between 0900-1200 zulu tonight/tomorrow morning. Instead of peeking outside late tonight, I think I'll just hit the rack early and get up at 0400.
Also, I found a neat smartphone astrophotography guide from NASA if anyone is interested:
https://spacemath.gsfc.nasa.gov/SMBooks/AstrophotographyV1.pdf
-
https://twitter.com/johnkonrad/status/1789133901991965067
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GNRHzO8WkAAlsqn?format=jpg&name=900x900)
-
Near Golden CO: 88% to 94% cloud cover until dawn. Thus far, to 11:59 MDT Satrday, no comm or power problems . Will be rainy-ish all day Sunday. Told Son 2 to wish Wife1 happy Mother's Day.
-
This morning was about the same intensity as yesterday in my AO. Yesterday, the show was directly North and lower in the sky. This morning, it was NE and higher in the sky. I still haven't been able to get color images. Though this morning under NODs, there was a meteor shower going on simultaneously, so that was kinda cool.
-
On another place I visit someone mentioned that they were 50 years old and this is the first time they saw the Aurora Australis and was wondering what caused them.
By far the most entertaining and surprisingly accurate answer was: It is the sun farting and the earth's atmosphere getting dutch ovened.
It somehow works. :rofl:
bob
Tell your curious friends it's the same thing as what goes on in a neon sign... but bigger.
Terry, 230RN
-
I looked very early Sunday Morning, and although we had a clear sky, nothing was showing here, even under NODs or with a digital camera sensor. My aunt in North FL syas she saw some at her place though, so it looks like we just missed them. My Parents in Alaska didn't see anything due to AK's very on brand overcast and cold drizzle springtime weather.
I'm not too sad, because I've seen the lights a lot, but it's cool that a lot of folks got to see them for the first time. They are pretty neat to watch.
Side Note: I already saw on Twitter this morning that they were fake. The.gov (and probably the jooz) fired up HAARP on Friday and made the lights. The idea is to normalize them in the south, and then they can just make them appear when they have their grid killing event to [insert nefarious goal here] and blame it on a "solar flare". It's basically just like COVID you sheep. Wake up! Man the internet has some high test crazy sometimes.
-
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GNRhjS7acAA1R2-?format=jpg&name=900x900)
-
^ LOL !
Light that one !
-
Got lucky with this one
Region 3664 not done yet! Produces X8.7 flare...largest of the solar cycle!
published: Tuesday, May 14, 2024 17:29 UTC
Region 3664 produced yet ANOTHER X-ray flare as it moves beyond the Western solar limb!! This time, it was an X8.7 flare, the largest of this solar cycle! Due to its location, any CME associated with this flare will likely NOT have any geomagnetic impacts on Earth. As always, stay tuned to our website for updates! **CORRECTED for magnitude 8.7, not 8.8**
-
Did we all just catch a bit more radiation? Should we remind the folks who hate green energy about that?