Author Topic: I have this bad feeling.....  (Read 6546 times)

yesitsloaded

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I have this bad feeling.....
« on: July 09, 2008, 06:57:44 AM »
Is anyone else getting the bad feeling that we will be at war with Iran in the next year. Iran isn't a goon squad like Iraq was, they have a real military and possibly real nuclear weapons. They also don't take to kindly to us and don't mind demonstrating their weapons.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/meast/07/09/iran.missiles/index.html

 TEHRAN, Iran (CNN) -- Iran test-fired a long-range missile on Wednesday in response to what it says are threats from Israel and the United States, Iranian officials said.
The new version of the Shahab-3 missile is capable of reaching its main regional enemy Israel, Iran says.

The new version of the Shahab-3 missile is capable of reaching its main regional enemy Israel, Iran says.

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps test-fired a Shahab-3 missile and several other missiles during war games in the Persian Gulf called the Great Prophet III, according to Iran's state-run media and a U.S. military source.

"We want to tell the world that those who conduct their foreign policy by using the language of threat against Iran have to know that our finger is always on the trigger and we have hundreds and even thousands of missiles ready to be fired against predetermined targets," Gen. Hossein Salami, commander of the Revolutionary Guard ground forces, said on state TV.

"We will chase the enemies on the ground and in the sky and we are able react strongly to enemy's threats in shortest possible time."

William Burns, a senior U.S. State Department official, said Iran is "as serious ... a problem as any we face today."

The exercise comes a month after Israel conducted a military drill in the eastern Mediterranean involving dozens of warplanes, and the latest Iranian activities prompted concern from Israel and condemnation from the United States.

Iran occasionally tests missiles, but this firing comes amid international tensions over its nuclear aspirations.

The state-run Islamic Republic News Agency said "the war game was aimed at improving the combat readiness of Iran's armed forces. The 2,000-kilometers-range Shahab-3 missiles were tested to demonstrate Iran's capability in hitting its enemies accurately at the early stages of their probable attacks against the Islamic Republic." Video Watch footage of the missiles being fired »

The agency added: "Domestic and foreign political and military analysts believe that Shahab-3 is able to reach targets in the occupied lands in case of the Zionist regime's probable attacks against Iran's nuclear sites."

Iran's Press TV said the military "successfully test-fired new long and mid-range missiles." It mentioned the Shahab 3, "which can hit any target within a range of 2,000km." It said the missile was equipped with a one-ton conventional warhead.

"Nine highly advanced missiles with improved accuracy were simultaneously tested including the Zelzal and Fateh missiles with ranges of 400km and 170km respectively."

Press TV said troops were also involved in the maneuvers in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz areas.

A U.S. military official with knowledge of the testing counted the firing of seven missiles, one Shahab-3 and six shorter-range ballistic missiles. The testing took place over land, the official said.

The official, who noted that these kinds of tests had occurred before and were not unexpected, said the tests were tracked by U.S. intelligence.

Another military source said another Iranian exercise is under way inside the Persian Gulf with surface ships and submarines.

World powers, who suspect Iran is intent on building nuclear weapons, have offered economic and other incentives in exchange for the suspension of its enrichment program.

Iran, which says its nuclear program is strictly to produce energy, defends its right to proceed with enrichment.

There are worldwide worries that Israel, which is concerned by Iran's plans, is pondering a unilateral strike.

Israel's recent aerial military exercise was in part an effort to send a message that it has the capability to attack Iran's nuclear program.

The distance involved in the exercise was roughly the same as would be involved in a possible strike on the Iranian nuclear fuel plant at Natanz, a U.S. military official said.

In 1981, Israel attacked a nuclear facility in Iraq. Israel also struck a site in Syria that some say was a nuclear reactor under construction.

One Israeli Cabinet member, Shaul Mofaz, recently said it "will attack" Iran if the nuclear program was not halted.

Last week, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander, Gen. Mohammed Ali-Jaafari, said any strike against Iran's nuclear facilities would be regarded a the beginning of war.

At the same time, Iranian leaders are discounting the possibility of war. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, in Malaysia this week for a conference, told reporters Iran was trying to prevent a confrontation.

"We are making all-out efforts to expand peace and security in the world. You should not be concerned about a new war," he said on Tuesday.

Mark Regev, spokesman for Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, said it did not want conflict with Iran.

"But the Iranian nuclear program and the Iranian ballistic missile program must be of concern for the entire International community," Regev said.

The White House reacted strongly to the Iranian test-firing.

National Security Council spokesman Gordon Johndroe said: "Iran's development of ballistic missiles is a violation of United Nations Security Council resolutions and completely inconsistent with Iran's obligations to the world."

Johndroe mentioned that the U.S., Britain, France, Russia, China and Germany "are committed to a diplomatic path, and have offered Iran a generous package of incentives if they will suspend their uranium enrichment activities."

"They should also refrain from further missile tests if they truly seek to gain the trust of the world. The Iranians should stop the development of ballistic missiles, which could be used as a delivery vehicle for a potential nuclear weapon, immediately."
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U.S. Sen. John McCain, the Republican presidential candidate, said the tests "demonstrate again the dangers it [Iran] poses to its neighbors and to the wider region, especially Israel."

Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama said:"Iran is a grave threat. We have to make sure that we are working with our allies to apply tightening pressure economically on Iran at the same time as we start engaging in the kind of direct diplomacy that can lead them to standing down on issues like nuclear weapons."
I can haz nukular banstiks ? Say no to furries, yes to people.

Manedwolf

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Re: I have this bad feeling.....
« Reply #1 on: July 09, 2008, 06:59:21 AM »
Saber-rattling. The overblown speeches that followed demonstrate that.

Also, I think you can be assured that every single Iranian submarine has one of our attack subs right on its tail, and will never know it's there.

wmenorr67

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Re: I have this bad feeling.....
« Reply #2 on: July 09, 2008, 07:00:45 AM »
While many countries claim to have nuclear weapons, and may have even tested them, only one has had the balls to actually use not one but two.
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Dntsycnt

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Re: I have this bad feeling.....
« Reply #3 on: July 09, 2008, 07:08:57 AM »
"had the balls"?  We were the only ones who had them at the time.  Besides, I am personally quite glad that no one else "has the balls" to use nuclear weapons.

Marvin Dao

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Re: I have this bad feeling.....
« Reply #4 on: July 09, 2008, 07:17:13 AM »
Is anyone else getting the bad feeling that we will be at war with Iran in the next year. Iran isn't a goon squad like Iraq was, they have a real military and possibly real nuclear weapons. They also don't take to kindly to us and don't mind demonstrating their weapons.

Looking back at the Iran-Iraq War and at how well the relatively professional Iraqi army fared in Desert Storm, I suspect that Iran's conventional military forces aren't going to be much of an issue in a shooting war. As far as having nuclear weapons, I find that highly doubtful. If they did, we would have already had a North Korea style demonstration and invasion would be off the table for fear of a nuke strike at Israel or a US coastal city.

wmenorr67

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Re: I have this bad feeling.....
« Reply #5 on: July 09, 2008, 07:19:23 AM »
And know this.

Quote
Iranian shelling reported in northern Iraq

Quote
BAGHDAD, Iraq (CNN) -- Iranian artillery shells rained down on villages in northern Iraq Wednesday where Kurdish rebels were thought to be operating.

A security official with Iraq's Kurdish Regional Government in Sulaimaniya confirmed the information.

The early-morning shelling hit border villages in Qandil mountains area in Sulaimaniya province and there were no reports of casualties.

Authorities say the Party of Free Life of Kurdistan is based in the region.

It is is part of an alliance of Kurdish rebel groups that includes the Kurdistan Workers' Party, which conducts attacks against Turkey from northern Iraq.

The Kurdish region is a contiguous area that spread across Iraq, Iran, Syria and Turkey and the Kurdish rebels in those regions are fighting for an independent Kurdish state.


http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/meast/07/09/iran.iraq/index.html?iref=mpstoryview
There are five things, above all else, that make life worth living: a good relationship with God, a good woman, good health, good friends, and a good cigar.

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Manedwolf

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Re: I have this bad feeling.....
« Reply #6 on: July 09, 2008, 07:22:59 AM »
I'm seeing hilarious "Saw too many action movies" posts on other boards.

Like that IF Iran did an airburst with a nuclear weapon they probably don't have, it'd OMG make all the tankers' GPS systems crash and they'd all collide.

Um. No...the navigator would get out the sextant and use celestial navigation for the charts on the table instead. rolleyes

K Frame

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Re: I have this bad feeling.....
« Reply #7 on: July 09, 2008, 07:26:03 AM »
"had the balls"?  We were the only ones who had them at the time.  Besides, I am personally quite glad that no one else "has the balls" to use nuclear weapons.

The true effects of nuclear weapsons also weren't understood at the time, either.

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coppertales

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Re: I have this bad feeling.....
« Reply #8 on: July 09, 2008, 07:32:01 AM »
If Iran uses it's nuks, either us or Israel will educate them how to turn sand into glass.......chris3

yesitsloaded

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Re: I have this bad feeling.....
« Reply #9 on: July 09, 2008, 07:49:15 AM »
I was thinking more along the lines of Obama sending in a "peacekeeping" force that would quickly turn into the next Vietnam. We keep appeasing these jokers to the point of stupidity or we rattle sabers at them. The way to go about it is to speak softly and rain hell down and kill them all if need be as a last resort. This nation needs a third war going on like we need a submarine with a screen door.
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vaskidmark

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Re: I have this bad feeling.....
« Reply #10 on: July 09, 2008, 07:55:26 AM »
If Iran uses it's nuks, either us or Israel will educate them how to turn sand into glass.......chris3

Several years ago and several administrations ago I might have agreed with you.  Now, I'm not so sure about either country's resolve.

Rather than go into a detailed list of all the indicators that lead me to that conclusion, let me just say that I can no longer feel assured that internal and external politics will not be the primary force behind the decision to go nuclear, as opposed to gut-level, knee-jerk survival.

I say that because the known consequences of turning sand into glass are such that nobody who thinks about doing it will do so.  Only someone who operates at the reptilian-brain level of survival will be able to push the button.  Just my humble opinion based on growing up with "duck & cover" drills and umpteen psychopaths rattling their sabres but never doing anything out of (I hope) fear of retaliation.

We are less than 200 days from a change of admionistration.  No matter which of the presumptive candidates wins, I do not see either of them willing or capable of mongering war.

stay safe.

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RevDisk

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Re: I have this bad feeling.....
« Reply #11 on: July 09, 2008, 08:18:35 AM »
While many countries claim to have nuclear weapons, and may have even tested them, only one has had the balls to actually use not one but two.

You say that like it's a bad thing.  Nukes are something you don't play around with lightly.  For damn good reason.  "Balls" should never be a factor when it comes to nuclear weapons, and anyone who thinks so should be kept very very far away from them.  Thankfully, the mil still does very extensive psych testing on the nuke folks.  Though I've heard standards have been slipping. 


Quote
If Iran uses it's nuks, either us or Israel will educate them how to turn sand into glass.......chris3

Our stated policy is indeed to return fire if the US is hit with nukes.  It's our SOP, and I hope it stays SOP indefinitely.  Regardless of the personality of the president, I don't think most would have the 'balls', as wmenorr67 would phrase it, NOT to return fire in a nuclear exchange. 


Regarding the parent post.  Iranians are Persians first and foremost.  Ego and talking for hours are a natural past time.  Read up on the multitude of Roman wars with Persia for a detailed account.  Like North Korea, things are unlikely to really flare up.  But they rattle the sabers mainly for their own population.  Trying to create a unifying external enemy in order to cover up internal issues.  Obviously, ignoring what they say would be unwise, but so would be paying too much attention. 
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MechAg94

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Re: I have this bad feeling.....
« Reply #12 on: July 09, 2008, 08:33:18 AM »
I have seen some estimates that say Iran will be an oil importer within 10 years or so.  Their infrastructure is not in good shape. 
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Bogie

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Re: I have this bad feeling.....
« Reply #13 on: July 09, 2008, 08:34:27 AM »
Actually, Iraq's army scared Iran.
 
But we'll be hearing from 'em anyway. The leaders' major political rhetoric involves tweaking the tail of the Great Satan, and sooner or later, they're gonna have to do something. I suspect it will involve a test of the new president.
 
And the people who will do it are already here.
 
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HankB

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Re: I have this bad feeling.....
« Reply #14 on: July 09, 2008, 09:25:32 AM »
Our stated policy is indeed to return fire if the US is hit with nukes.  It's our SOP, and I hope it stays SOP indefinitely.  Regardless of the personality of the president, I don't think most would have the 'balls', as wmenorr67 would phrase it, NOT to return fire in a nuclear exchange. 
A President who did not retaliate - massively - with nukes should the US be hit with same wouldn't remain in the Oval Office very long.

The biggest worry about a war with Iran (besides the obvious effect on the world economy) is how we'd wage it - instead of flattening every power plant, bridge, telephone exchange, railroad yard, water works, sewage treatment plant, post office, radio & TV station, etc., I'm afraid we'd try to minimize infrastructure damage and pursue a "boots on the ground" occupation strategy. Expensive in both lives and treasure.
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taurusowner

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Re: I have this bad feeling.....
« Reply #15 on: July 09, 2008, 09:46:39 AM »
The biggest worry about a war with Iran (besides the obvious effect on the world economy) is how we'd wage it - instead of flattening every power plant, bridge, telephone exchange, railroad yard, water works, sewage treatment plant, post office, radio & TV station, etc., I'm afraid we'd try to minimize infrastructure damage and pursue a "boots on the ground" occupation strategy. Expensive in both lives and treasure.

This.  War with Iran would be very easy.  The peace afterward would be much harder.  Since the US seems to have adopted a "let's help rebuild" approach to war-fighting, we won't just leave it a destroying their army.  We should, but we won't.  If we instead took a "attack us or our allies, we'll #### you up, end of story" strategy, then the whole situation becomes much less complicated.

lupinus

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Re: I have this bad feeling.....
« Reply #16 on: July 09, 2008, 10:12:23 AM »
War with Iran wouldn't be any harder then war with Iraq.  And I believe we have the balls to nuke if nuked, I am even more sure Israel has the balls to do so.

And I'm sorry, but....

Quote
Gen. Hossein Salami
laugh
That is all. *expletive deleted*ck you all, eat *expletive deleted*it, and die in a fire. I have considered writing here a long parting section dedicated to each poster, but I have decided, at length, against it. *expletive deleted*ck you all and Hail Satan.

Headless Thompson Gunner

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Re: I have this bad feeling.....
« Reply #17 on: July 09, 2008, 10:37:17 AM »
We're already at war with Iran through proxies.  It might simplify matters tremendously to be at war with Iran overtly and directly.  "Get it on and get it over with," as they say.

Grandpa Shooter

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Re: I have this bad feeling.....
« Reply #18 on: July 09, 2008, 10:39:27 AM »
 


Regarding the parent post.  Iranians are Persians first and foremost.  Ego and talking for hours are a natural past time.  How is that any different than what we see every day on the internet?   [/b]  But they rattle the sabers mainly for their own population.  Trying to create a unifying external enemy in order to cover up internal issues.  Hasn't our own goernment been doing that since 9 1 1?
[/quote][/b]

doc2rn

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Re: I have this bad feeling.....
« Reply #19 on: July 10, 2008, 08:25:13 AM »
Three words, due to the terrain, that the Air-Chair bubbas need to remember "Fuel-Air-Bombs". Maybe this time they will get it right.

Leatherneck

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Re: I have this bad feeling.....
« Reply #20 on: July 10, 2008, 01:07:45 PM »
If we went to war with Iran, their military would be effective for--at best--12 hours. From there on, it would be mopping up. Militarily, that is. I have no idea what external consequences there would be in the ME and worldwide, and I don't think an occupation would go any easier than the one in Iraq has gone, if we opted to do that. Unless, of course, we were willing to take the gloves off with the Iranian populace.

TC
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macadore

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Re: I have this bad feeling.....
« Reply #21 on: July 10, 2008, 01:58:55 PM »
The biggest worry about a war with Iran (besides the obvious effect on the world economy) is how we'd wage it - instead of flattening every power plant, bridge, telephone exchange, railroad yard, water works, sewage treatment plant, post office, radio & TV station, etc., I'm afraid we'd try to minimize infrastructure damage and pursue a "boots on the ground" occupation strategy. Expensive in both lives and treasure.

This.  War with Iran would be very easy.  The peace afterward would be much harder.  Since the US seems to have adopted a "let's help rebuild" approach to war-fighting, we won't just leave it a destroying their army.  We should, but we won't.  If we instead took a "attack us or our allies, we'll #### you up, end of story" strategy, then the whole situation becomes much less complicated.

Tell it brother!!!

RevDisk

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Re: I have this bad feeling.....
« Reply #22 on: July 10, 2008, 03:22:58 PM »
If we went to war with Iran, their military would be effective for--at best--12 hours. From there on, it would be mopping up. Militarily, that is. I have no idea what external consequences there would be in the ME and worldwide, and I don't think an occupation would go any easier than the one in Iraq has gone, if we opted to do that. Unless, of course, we were willing to take the gloves off with the Iranian populace.

TC

Thing is, Iran has had a couple years of monitoring our counterinsurgency doctrine.  It'd be rather unlikely that they haven't been keeping notes and making preperations?  If Iran had half a degree of intelligence, they'd tell their soldiers to instantly disperse if the US invaded.  Take your AK, go home, use insurgent tactics after the initial invasion.

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taurusowner

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Re: I have this bad feeling.....
« Reply #23 on: July 10, 2008, 04:03:58 PM »
That's only if we decided to pull more surgical crap like we have been doing.  If we waged war WWII style, even their insurgency would have no chance.

grampster

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Re: I have this bad feeling.....
« Reply #24 on: July 10, 2008, 04:05:11 PM »
Google Stratfor.  They have some interesting takes on the ME.
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