jfruser,
You make a more logical attack on my statement than makattack does. Would you agree with me if I said that the oil fields off our coasts, on the north slope and what is contained in the Rockies oil shale is a finite resource? What do we do when that finite resource runs out? My problems with oil relate solely to the fact that we buy the majority of what we use overseas, it is vulnerable while being shipped, and we don't have enough of it here within our borders to make us self sufficient.
1. Yes, they are a finite resource.
2.
In general, what will happen is what makattak describes, unless some green freak with political power uses gov't and the threat of death to force a different outcome.
In particular, I do not know (and do not much care*) which energy source replaces petroleum products. That point is a couple of centuries out (8 generations or so, given current usage rates and ability to exploit what is there) unless some other source comes online that is both cheaper per unit energy and superior is some significant way (portability, etc.)
[* I really don't worry much about "oil running out" in the big sense. makatak explained why: when the price approaches a certain point, substitutes will be more attractive and eventually take over from petroleum the same way petroleum took over from whale oil. Also, anyone who took an astronomy course knows that eventually, the Sun will run out of hydrogen. Why no great BFD over that? It has about the same effect on us at this point in history as does running out of oil.]
Your worry about our "oil imports from overseas" is overwrought, IMO. We import more from Canada than we do from the entire Persian Gulf. While Hugo Chavez might rail against the USA, he will no more stop selling us oil than he will cut off his dangly bits. Same thing with Mexico. They need our dollars more than we need their oil.
Matter of fact, every source in the W Hemisphere is about as secure as any resource can be, which amounts to 46% of total petro imports, 27% of total petro used.
If we count
all sources I would consider "secure" (excludes any Asian, ME, African source), the number bumps to 49% of all petro imports, 29% of total petro used, or 71% of "secure imported" & domestic petro.
So, discounting the Rocky Mtn oil shale and the Canadian oil sands, new oil fields like those off the Cali coast can cover a significant portion of the 29% of our imported oil that is not as secure as we'd like. The postulated 5% of annual oil use from the Cali field would be a little over 1/6 of the proportion of our "insecure import" gap. Toss in another such find in the parts of the Gulf of Mexico where we are currently barred from exploitation, and you are 1/3 of the way there.
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_impcus_a2_nus_ep00_im0_mbbl_a.htmSource (thousands of bbl oil & such annually) 2008 2008_pct_imported 2008_pct_total_(58%_imported)
Annual Total U.S. Imports 4711238 100% 58%
Non-OPEC Countries 2530488 54% 31%
OPEC Countries 2180750 46% 27%
Canada 899935 19% 11%
Persian Gulf Countries 868516 18% 11%
Saudi Arabia 560705 12% 7%
Mexico 475545 10% 6%
Venezuela 435769 9% 5%
Nigeria 362263 8% 4%
Iraq 229300 5% 3%
Algeria 200192 4% 2%
Angola 187761 4% 2%
Russia 169415 4% 2%
Virgin Islands 117191 2% 1%
Brazil 94261 2% 1%
United Kingdom 85415 2% 1%
Ecuador 80714 2% 1%
Kuwait 76988 2% 1%
Colombia 73238 2% 1%
Netherlands 61142 1% 1%
Chad 38080 1% 0%
Libya 37467 1% 0%
Norway 37303 1% 0%
France 32468 1% 0%
Belgium 31472 1% 0%
Aruba 31341 1% 0%
Equatorial Guinea 28289 1% 0%
Azerbaijan 27152 1% 0%
Congo (Brazzaville) 24694 1% 0%
Trinidad and Tobago 23268 0% 0%
Gabon 21430 0% 0%
Italy 19423 0% 0%
Germany 19192 0% 0%
Korea 17657 0% 0%
Argentina 17595 0% 0%
Spain 16370 0% 0%
Australia 12880 0% 0%
Peru 12172 0% 0%
Finland 11885 0% 0%
Vietnam 10628 0% 0%
Sweden 10153 0% 0%
Indonesia 8068 0% 0%
Oman 6765 0% 0%
Belarus 6630 0% 0%
China 5628 0% 0%
Egypt 5605 0% 0%
Guatemala 5394 0% 0%
Cameroon 5341 0% 0%
Thailand 5148 0% 0%
Lithuania 4891 0% 0%
Kazakhstan 4466 0% 0%
Netherlands Antilles 3732 0% 0%
Japan 3421 0% 0%
Estonia 3410 0% 0%
Ivory Coast (Cote d'Ivore) 3298 0% 0%
Tunisia 3114 0% 0%
Portugal 2989 0% 0%
Turkey 2827 0% 0%
Malaysia 2789 0% 0%
Ukraine 2756 0% 0%
Bahama Islands 2610 0% 0%
Jamaica 2439 0% 0%
Latvia 2347 0% 0%
Israel 2313 0% 0%
Syria 2303 0% 0%
China, Taiwan 2125 0% 0%
India 2040 0% 0%
Denmark 1731 0% 0%
El Salvador 1667 0% 0%
United Arab Emirates 1474 0% 0%
Bolivia 1239 0% 0%
Ireland 1186 0% 0%
Greece 1082 0% 0%
Mauritania 995 0% 0%
Costa Rica 957 0% 0%
Belize 952 0% 0%
Ghana 831 0% 0%
Turkmenistan 809 0% 0%
Singapore 649 0% 0%
Bulgaria 635 0% 0%
Cyprus 604 0% 0%
New Zealand 571 0% 0%
South Africa 511 0% 0%
Brunei 356 0% 0%
Panama 348 0% 0%
Morocco 321 0% 0%
Niue 313 0% 0%
Pakistan 307 0% 0%
Georgia 92 0% 0%
Midway Islands 79 0% 0%
Malta 67 0% 0%
Senegal 65 0% 0%
Romania 49 0% 0%
Qatar 49 0% 0%
Uruguay 37 0% 0%
Poland 32 0% 0%
Hungary 22 0% 0%
Yemen 0% 0%
Tonga 0% 0%
Togo 0% 0%
Switzerland 0% 0%
Swaziland 0% 0%
Spratly Islands 0% 0%
Slovakia 0% 0%
Puerto Rico 0% 0%
Philippines 0% 0%
Papua New Guinea 0% 0%
Namibia 0% 0%
Kyrgyzstan 0% 0%
Hong Kong 0% 0%
Guinea 0% 0%
Croatia 0% 0%
Cook Islands 0% 0%
Congo (Kinshasa) 0% 0%
Chile 0% 0%
Burma 0% 0%
Benin 0% 0%
Barbados 0% 0%
Bahrain 0% 0%
Austria 0% 0%
Albania 0% 0%