Prediction: Ammo is going to get more scarce.

[Jocassee]

I don't think its any secret that we are printing money like its going out of style (and it is). Nor that on the current track we are set to experience enormous levels of inflation.

Portions of the right-wing populace are strung very tight right now. It seems to me that whenever FOX (and its editorials)* get around to making inflation or pending inflation a daily item on their broadcasts, the fear factor is going to ratchet up even higher than the 100 Days.

I have never experienced inflation or even a recession but I gather that the results are harrowing. If the strain on society begins to allow some elements to believe that collapse is even remotely possible, I believe ammunition will be impossible to find.

Discuss, add to, or correct if necessary.

*Not ragging on Fox, its just that everyone else will be behind the curve a few weeks at the least for fear of making BHO look bad.

[slingshot]

I have never experienced inflation or even a recession but I gather that the results are harrowing.

Ah youth.  The US typically has a recession about ever 8-10 years as I recall.  Some are seemingly small and certainly not noticed by children in traditional families sheltered from the realities of life. Rampant inflation is another matter and the last time that was part of American lives was in the mid 1970's to mid-1980's.  The Fed significantly raised interest rates to reduce the money supply.  It started in the Carter years and ended during Reagan's presidency.  It was not uncommon for people to buy a home and finance it at 18-20% interest.  My home loan was at 12.5% and that was considered exceptionally low.  You could get regular savings account interest of 15-18% if you looked around then.  Remember the Savings & Loan crisis?  Probably not.....    This time it is likely to be more painful. 

As far as ammunition goes, who knows?  Many people won't have money for food let alone ammunition.

[vaskidmark]

Neither recession, inflation nor economic collapse are going to have much effect on ammunition availability in the short to medium run.  We are already seeing that manufacturers are trying to crank out as much as they can but are unable to keep up with demand, and that buyers are willing to accept almost any price increase in order to purchase ammo.

In the very long run, adjusted for tin-foil hattery, ammo could come to replace paper currency.  Or, ammo could be used to make the need for paper currency/credit (at the national & international levels) no longer necessary.  I honestly do not see that as a probability, as much as there are those who are talking a shooting revolution as the response to a continuing economic morass such as we are seeing currently.  Believe it or not, Zimbabwe is my weather-glass.

What I forsee (like I need Madame Cleo for this) is more small purchases (higher costs + less available discretionary funds) being held, and less recreational shooting, along with a possible reduction in recreational hunting.  Trainers are going to offer more airsoft- and simunitions-based work.  Possibly drive-bys will involve less spray&pray and we will actually see aimed fire.  Either that or drive-bys will be replaced by ambushes, although I see both using up about the same amount of ammo.  I do not see gangs getting into sniping.

On a personal level, I'm shooting about half a box (25 rounds) for every 2 I buy.  I'm not hoarding - honest I'm not.  I'm holding on to prescious metals as an investment.  That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

stay safe.

skidmark

[Vodka7]

Technically we're borrowing money like it's going out of style.  We haven't really been printing any.

Some people, Peter Schiff chief among them, have been pointing out that there are relatively few countries who can A) afford to buy our debt, and B) are willing to do so.  Our main lenders (Japan and China are by far the biggest, followed by the Middle East) aren't that well off either, and China and places like Saudi Arabia aren't exactly our biggest fans politically.

The way I see it, we're still the world's biggest consumers.  Can you really imagine China, Japan, or any OPEC country lasting long if suddenly Americans couldn't afford cheap plastic crap, flat screen TV's, or gas?  They all know that if we go, they go, so it's in their interests to keep us propped up with cheap loans.

[Jocassee]

 Believe it or not, Zimbabwe is my weather-glass.

People keep saying this but I just don't see it. I've read a text or two on Zim and I lived in South Africa for a few years.

What has gone on in Zim is a total collapse of society on every level imaginable. Class, government, family, economy, agriculture, infrastructure, EVERYTHING. Not even in the case of Weimar did we see what basically amounts to intentional destruction of a country. At least Germany was still a country. Zim is not, and never again will be a country, but a kingdom ruled by whomever can get the Neo-Marxist lords to cooperate--just like medieval Britain and France.

We will not--actually can not--by virtue of our American mindset and traditions (not the least of which is firearms ownership) reach the level of Zim or even Weimar without an uprising (probably peaceful--again by virtue of mindset and traditions).

The million-dollar question is...will our politicians be able to stop the now-inevitable train wreck that is American fiscal policy, by virtue of the simple fact that the public becomes more aware of it and puts pressure on them? I do not know, because the habits of half a century and more are so ingrained that only a few (Ron Paul etc) can even envision the massive change to policy that would necessitate.

If they cannot, there will be a Second Republic--not something I desire, because I do not think we can do it right twice in a row.

[zahc]

I believe ammunition will be impossible to find.

Wait, it's already impossible to find.

[RevDisk]

I don't think its any secret that we are printing money like its going out of style (and it is). Nor that on the current track we are set to experience enormous levels of inflation.

Uh huh. 

No, we are not printing money like no tomorrow.  That would probably be cheaper.  When the government spends more than it has coming in, a treasury security is issued to cover the difference.  Someone hands cold, hard cash over to the US Treasury, and they get a security in exchange.  Essentially, it's the promise to pay back the full amount plus a fixed specified interest.

'Printed' money is an extremely small percent of the entire money supply.  I would be shocked if it was over 1%.

The US Treasury has never failed to pay off a security, and won't.  US Treasury issued securities have the highest rating in the world.  They are backed up by the US government and all of its assets. 

Now, you are correct that the US government is flooding the market with Treasury securities.  People predict anarchy when folks stop or sharply reduce buying T-bills.  Unlikely.  More likely reality is the normal supply and demand curve kicks in, and the Treasury must pay a higher interest rate. 

If people stop buying T-bills for some reason, yes, the government comes to a screeching halt.  They physically couldn't 'invent' enough money to cover their revenue needs.  The revenue shortfall is $1.8 trillion dollars, you can't exactly just print that large of an amount.

[drewtam]

I went to a presentation by our chief economist. He went over the economic numbers.

1. Inflation around the world is -0.5% to 3% at most.
2. The US is right on target at 2%.
3. The forecast is that inflation is not a concern.
4. The FED has increased the money supply by 2.5x

So I raised my hand and pointedly asked how that is possible...

His explanation is that money is a commodity; the de-leveraging and required increases in reserves by all banks created such a large demand that it soaked up all the new supply. So it may turn out that they balanced pretty well.

[Standing Wolf]

Aw, darn. Is the sky falling again?

[Telperion]

His explanation is that money is a commodity; the de-leveraging and required increases in reserves by all banks created such a large demand that it soaked up all the new supply. So it may turn out that they balanced pretty well.

Correct, for now. The Fed is engaged in quantitative easing (printing money), but if credit is being destroyed faster than it is being created, then the overall effect is still deflationary. The question is how will the Fed (and other central banks) know when to stop. Monetary and fiscal policy impacts always have a lag time. It is akin to driving a car where the brake and gas pedals take a few seconds to work. Right now the Fed is standing on the gas pedal. When they change their mind, there may not be enough time to stop.

[RevDisk]

Aw, darn. Is the sky falling again?

Na.  But the full retards in charge are trying their best to ensure it does happen.  Sigh, I guess no one ever told them to never go full retard.

[roo_ster]

Na.  But the full retards in charge are trying their best to ensure it does happen.  Sigh, I guess no one ever told them to never go full retard.

The default setting for human governance is "Retard."

I think all of human progress is just the very few moderately sane people suppressing the full retards for a moment or three, and taking a few steps forward.

Dark Ages occur when the few non-retards are killed off or suppressed for a long enough time for the retards to have at it without opposition for too long.

[CNYCacher]

In the event of a major collapse of our economy, zimbabwean inflation, etc.  I see the american people persevering by bartering, trading, laboring for food, etc.

Na.  But the full retards in charge are trying their best to ensure it does happen.  Sigh, I guess no one ever told them to never go full retard.

I see what you did there.

[K Frame]

You are obviously WAY too young to remember the 1970s and the early 1980s. That was nearly a frigging DECADE and a HALF of rotten economic performance, scared as hell people who were losing their jobs, two separate Arab oil embargos, Watergate, the Iran Hostage deal, mortgage rates hitting as high as 23%...

This is a goddamned walk in the park compared to that.

[K Frame]

"The default setting for human governance is "Retard."

The default setting for the human race is retarded.

[slingshot]

I sincerely hope the experts are right about the money supply. I dread 20% annual inflation.  Jimmy Carter enacted wage controls.....  that didn't work....  employers used that lever to not give raises when costs were inflating.  We don't need that official excuse again.   Back in those days, housing prices were increasing substantially and home buyers were encouraged to buy all the house they could afford to get the loan on as wages/salaries were increasing and in a few years, the monthly mortgage was not a huge problem it was at the start of the loan.  Then viable rate loans started to get more home buyers into the market...   Sound familiar?  I lost my butt back in those days as I did loose my job and sold my house at what it cost me 7 years earlier just to get out of the loan responsibility.  (The buyer defaulted on the loan in 6-months which I still chuckle about to myself.  Never made a single house payment.)  Home appreciation?  What's that?

[Waitone]

Irwin speaketh truth.  The 70's sucked.  It wasn't until half way through the 80's that things improved.

[T.O.M.]

Back to the OP about ammo, I cannot find ball ammo in 9mm or .38 on the shelves in Central Ohio.  The standard line from the man (or woman) behind the counter is that the last shipment was bought up as quickly as it was put on the shelves.  I can find the occassional  box of quality duty ammo, but generally is running around $1-$1.50 per round.  Not what I want to spend for putting holes in paper.

We get back to the basic issue of why demand is so high.  Fear.  Fear of government bans on guns and ammo.  Fears that the financial problems will lead to increased lawlessness.  In central Ohio, the financial problems are leading to cuts in law enforcement, which is making the demand for guns and ammo even higher, out of fears of chaos in the streets.

I wish that I had invested in the space for, and equipment for, reloading back when I had the chance, but instead I turned the space into a playroom for my sons.  Back then, I saw Blazer Brass 9mm for $6.99 a box.  Nveer thought that supply would dry up.

[coppertales]

The gun show I went to last weekend had plenty of ammo, a first, however, it was not cheap.  There were primers too, expensive.  I expect the same at the show this weekend because it will be a bigger show......chris3

[Ben]

two separate Arab oil embargos, Watergate, the Iran Hostage deal, mortgage rates hitting as high as 23%...

I can excuse young people on this somewhat, because reading about history isn't the same as living it. I can't excuse the politicians who are crying "end of the world" now that were waiting in the same gas lines as me (admittedly in the back seat of the car listening to my dad cuss about the damn government) during gas rationing and paying the same 18% mortgage that I paid on the first house I ever bought. Not to mention we were all preparing to freeze to death in the coming Ice Age.

This is indeed a walk in the park, relatively speaking.

[charby]

Back then, I saw Blazer Brass 9mm for $6.99 a box.  Nveer thought that supply would dry up.

I thought the same when WWB was $9.99 for a 100 round box three years ago at Walmart. Now its $19.98 if you can find it.

[tokugawa]

" A walk in the park?"  You guys have been smokin' too much hopium.  That is like saying "this ain't too bad "as you pass the 22nd story in free fall.  Every single economic indicator is screaming "RUN"! "HIDE"!

 Do you think the the Chinese were laughing at Giethner for no reason when he assured them thier assets were safe?   
 
   We are losing 600,000 jobs a month. -The Gov. is borrowing half of every dollar it spends.-Tax receipts are down 34% year over year. -The deficit will soon approach our entire GDP.- The unfunded liabilities for entitlement programs are equivalent to the value of the entire USA. -Two more alt arm reset bumps  are coming, and a hell of a lot of folks are underwater already. - Imports and exports are down hugely.-
 This list of doom goes on and on- but this thing is going to get way, way worse and I expect it to be a decade long.  Every attempt is being made to put a positive shine on it- We know quite well how the MSM sucks up to the PTB.  The financial blogs have a very different take.

  Along with this we have a popular marxist in power who is consolidating political power with great speed. Like the new "cyber czar", UNDER WHITE HOUSE CONTROL. Like the moving of the Census, UNDER WHITE HOUSE CONTROL. Like the moving of the Forest service, from Agriculture(income)  to Interior(greenies) . Like the nationalizing of the auto industry- and the banks. -And the appointment of marxist minions throughout. And a press so supine with moaning estacy they will not say a word in criticism .  Can you imagine how the would have ripped BUSH if he said the Constitution was 20 centuries old? Or the US having 57 states?
 
 We are in for a real rough ride.  Some may feel it is OK because they personally have not been affected yet- but the time is coming when this is going to wash over us all. 
 
 
 
 
 
 

[K Frame]

"Every single economic indicator is screaming "RUN"! "HIDE"!"

Again, you really need to acquaint yourself with the 1970s. The HISTORIC 1970s/1980s, and compare them to your HYSTERICAL 2000s.

Who knows, this period may well turn out to be worse than the 1970s/early 1980s, but right now it is not. It's just people like you who are in screaming fits of fear who are ASSUMING that this is just the entry into the end of the world as we know it and that we're all going to end up being owned by the Chinese and living in mud huts.

No period of economic turmoil is exactly like any other period, but unfortunately it seems like the attitudes of the people never change.

Back in the 1990s when things slowed down after Gulf War I lots of people were screaming at the top of their lungs, just as you are right now, that it was end times and that America was finished as an economic power.

Look. We have no clue what the future is going to bring with this period of economic turmoil.

But people like you certainly don't help anyone by going all cataonic with fear and predicting the imminent, unavoidable doom of the American economy.

So, my advice to you, and everyone else, is get your heads out of your butts, get your emotion selector out of "Fear/Panic" mode, and change your shorts.

[brimic]

Along with this we have a popular marxist in power who is consolidating political power with great speed. Like the new "cyber czar", UNDER WHITE HOUSE CONTROL. Like the moving of the Census, UNDER WHITE HOUSE CONTROL. Like the moving of the Forest service, from Agriculture(income)  to Interior(greenies) . Like the nationalizing of the auto industry- and the banks. -And the appointment of marxist minions throughout. And a press so supine with moaning estacy they will not say a word in criticism .  Can you imagine how the would have ripped BUSH if he said the Constitution was 20 centuries old? Or the US having 57 states?

This might still sound tin foil hattish right now, but I forsee restrictions on food to be coming soon after the banks fold or are nationalized. If Mao was able to starve 50 million people to death in an agrarian society, it should be a walk in the park to restrict distribution of food in a highly industrial and technological society.  Someone should mark this post to revisit it in 2 years to see if I'm right (unless the internet czar pulls the plug on such internet prattle by then).

[K Frame]

No, someone should again tell you all to get your heads out of your asses, get your fear switch out of "paranoid/we're doomed," and stop trying to do your best impersonation of Cpl. Hudson's "We're on an express elevator to hell; going down! Hey, maybe you haven't been keeping up on current events, but we just got our asses kicked! That's it man, game over man, game over! What the heck are we gonna do now? What are we gonna do?"