Author Topic: Question about glacier melt  (Read 1318 times)

Ryan in Maine

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Question about glacier melt
« on: August 12, 2009, 04:26:45 AM »
Alright. I'm watching a show about global warming. They're really pushing melting ice caps and glaciers, etc. They are giving quotes, in feet (16'+), claiming rising sea levels.

In 5th grade, I learned that water is displaced by whatever is floating in it. So the volume of the oceans shouldn't be changed by whether or not the water is in solid or liquid form. That means the sea level won't change. Or rather, it won't be changed by any ice already floating in water. Only ice that melts and flows off of solid land would create a noticeable change.

So how much of the ice is in the water already vs. on land? Or can it be broken down that easily at all? Am I missing other factors?

charby

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Re: Question about glacier melt
« Reply #1 on: August 12, 2009, 08:28:33 AM »
There is a lot of ice covering land, such as Greenland and Antarctica. If those ice sheets were to melt, yes the level of the oceans would raise. I remember sometime ago when a sheet of ice broke off a shelf in Antarctica and when it finally melted it was predicted to raise the level of the oceans about the height of 3 playing cards. That is a lot of water if you think about it.

« Last Edit: August 12, 2009, 09:25:10 AM by charby »
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CNYCacher

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Re: Question about glacier melt
« Reply #2 on: August 12, 2009, 08:38:58 AM »
Total square mileage of the world's oceans: 177M mi2
Total square mileage of Africa: 12M mi2
How big is africa?:

12 ( 177 / 12 ) = 177

Specific gravity of Ice: 0.9

177 / 0.9 = 197

The amount of ice required to melt down to 12 feet of water covering the current ocean would cover Africa 197 feet thick.

This neglects the fact that this much water would cause the oceans to move inland, so the actual rise would be less than 12 feet, but if you would somehow get the ocean to stand up so there was a 12-foot wall of water at every shoreline, that is how much ice you could get to do it.

Sound probable?


If you can't get your head around how HUGE Africa is, imagine a sheet of ice 693 feet thick covering the USA.
« Last Edit: August 12, 2009, 08:42:55 AM by CNYCacher »
On two occasions, I have been asked [by members of Parliament], "Pray, Mr. Babbage, if you put into the machine wrong figures, will the right answers come out?" I am not able to rightly apprehend the kind of confusion of ideas that could provoke such a question.
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HankB

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Re: Question about glacier melt
« Reply #3 on: August 12, 2009, 09:35:00 AM »
If you can't get your head around how HUGE Africa is, imagine a sheet of ice 693 feet thick covering the USA.
Didn't we have something close to that over Canada and most of what's now the USA during the last ice age?

Good thing cavemen invented SUVs 10,000 years ago and melted all that ice . . .  :laugh:
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coppertales

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Re: Question about glacier melt
« Reply #4 on: August 12, 2009, 11:16:10 AM »
The reason the ice is melting at a more noticable rate is because all of the air pollution control programs over the last 50 years have cleaned up the air so the sun shines on the ice at a more intense level causing it to melt faster.  It is like living in snow country.  The sun doesn't melt much in January but as it climbs into the sky it shines more intense in March melting the snow more easily.  I wonder why those climate idiots can't figure this out.......chris3

41magsnub

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Re: Question about glacier melt
« Reply #5 on: August 12, 2009, 12:26:55 PM »
Glacial Melt?


Brad Johnson

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Re: Question about glacier melt
« Reply #6 on: August 12, 2009, 01:48:47 PM »
Alright. I'm watching a show about global warming. They're really pushing melting ice caps and glaciers, etc. They are giving quotes, in feet (16'+), claiming rising sea levels.
So how much of the ice is in the water already vs. on land? Or can it be broken down that easily at all? Am I missing other factors?

Almost the entire arctic ice cap already rests in the ocean. Even if you melted the entire artic cap the total volume of water remains the same, thus sea levels wouldn't change more than the volume difference of the ice vs the same mass of liquid water. Since the mass of ice is very small vs the mass of the entire ocean, the actual level change would be, at best, token.

There's also this teeny, tiny little turd in the punchbowl - while the Arctic ice cap is showing a reduction in area, the Antarctic cap is growing. The Global Warming crowd has a bad habit of not mentioning that.

Brad
« Last Edit: August 12, 2009, 01:55:13 PM by Brad Johnson »
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CNYCacher

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Re: Question about glacier melt
« Reply #7 on: August 12, 2009, 02:00:01 PM »
thus sea levels wouldn't change more than the volume difference of the ice vs the same mass of liquid water

Floating ice does not raise water level as it melts, even though some pokes out the top.
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Ryan in Maine

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Re: Question about glacier melt
« Reply #8 on: August 12, 2009, 02:36:46 PM »
Charby:
Greenland was the first place that came to mind for me. What I'm trying to work out is how much of what melts on land will actually reach the ocean and how much will be trapped in glacial lakes or even man-made geography.

The height of three aces is definitely a lot of water when you consider how much of the Earth is covered by oceans.

CNYC:
That's an interesting way of looking at it. Africa with more square miles of land than the US + Europe + China. I don't want to imagine the US covered in 693 feet of ice. I already deal with northern Maine winters!

Hank:
*Rimshot*

Copper:
So, anti-air pollution = pro-ice melt? What's the math behind that one?

Brad:
The Antarctic ice cap contains over half of the Earth's fresh water, right? And it pretty much covers 99% of the continent, right? And if ice is building at a 2:1 ration vs. ice melting, that throws off a lot of scary research. 2008 had the biggest ice increase since records have been kept and 2009 is on track to break that record. That throws off a lot more the scary research. And all available evidence is pointing towards the Western sheet losing ice due to changes in ocean patterns. And the ice is actually so heavy that it's sinking the rock underneath. Etc. Etc. Etc.

Are scare tactics the only tactics these days?

Added:
I'm not the greatest with math, so I'm having a hard time with the "geographical math" that I'm trying to use to calculate how much predicted ice melt will make it to the ocean at all. Also having trouble calculating how much it will actually impact coastal populations all the continents.

Not having much luck.  :rolleyes:

Myself

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Re: Question about glacier melt
« Reply #9 on: August 12, 2009, 03:13:12 PM »
I know it is a bit of a topic shift, but what ever happened to the ozone hole that was so popular 20 years ago.  Could it be allowing more sunlight in to melt the ice?   :laugh:

I love how environmental disasters get canceled when nobody cares anymore.

Northwoods

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Re: Question about glacier melt
« Reply #10 on: August 12, 2009, 03:48:58 PM »
The biggest issue relating to sea level rise isn't the melting of the land based glaciers, its the thermal expansion of the existing liquid oceans.  As previously pointed out there just isn't that much ice on the land mass to cause these supposedly catastrophic changes in sea level.

Also, what may of the AGW alarmists gloss over if they even mention it at all is that the rise in sea level is, even in the worst case of the actually plausable scenarios, measured in perhaps as much as 1 meter per century.  That's 3/8" per year.  That would not make it all that hard to deal with relocating affected populations to higher ground. 

Under most plausable scenarios the rate is significantly slower that that, more like 1/10" inch or less per year.

Of course, the reality is that sea level has been flat or slightly declining for the last several years.  Any rise that had been seen appears to be most likely due to the same natural cycle that's led to the higher temps of the early and late 20th century, and the cooler temps of the 60's and 70's, and the apparent trend towards cooler temps going on now.

As to the Greenland ice, from what I've read, even if the glaciers are currently retreating their mass is actually increasing.  IOW, whatever extra is being lost due to calving at the face is being more than made up for with extra snow fall farther inland.  The retreating face being due more to local wind, ocean current, or other micro-climate effects than any change in global temperatures. 
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K Frame

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Re: Question about glacier melt
« Reply #11 on: August 12, 2009, 03:51:00 PM »
Eh. So Venice goes under water.

It will wash 700 years of pollution off all the buildings and monuments.
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Brad Johnson

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Re: Question about glacier melt
« Reply #12 on: August 12, 2009, 04:53:46 PM »
Floating ice does not raise water level as it melts, even though some pokes out the top.

Sorry, forgot to add that impurities trapped in the ice cause a slight difference in mass, changing the amount of water displaced per given volume of ice. The diff is so small as to be imperceptible by all but the most sensitive measuring equipment.

Brad
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BlueStarLizzard

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Re: Question about glacier melt
« Reply #13 on: August 12, 2009, 05:11:02 PM »
Eh. So Venice goes under water.

It will wash 700 years of pollution off all the buildings and monuments.

actually, i think its gonna go under water without the global warming/melting ice stuff. its sinking.
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