Could America fight a War?

[Hutch]

To re-hash and expand on some of the points made:

With satellite technology as good as it is, and with SOSUS and other technical intellgence gathering assets in place, a sucker-punch by the PRC aimed at forcing us to the bargaining table is just not conceivable.  If there was an A-Sat attack, and a corresponding cyber-attack on our C3I, that in itself would set our spidey-sensing all a'tingling, looking for the other shoe (or bomb) to drop.  Trying to imagine the PRC attempting a coup de main attack against Western (or Japanese) territory just exceeds the scope of my imagination.  The PRC doesn't have sealift or blue-water capability to sustain and protect it against the USN.

Why?  What would the PRC gain?  They don't want our land, or our resources, they want our money.  As fast as we're shoveling it over to them, why would they intervene?  With the balance of trade they run with us, they can buy anything they want, oil, metals, intellectual property, anything, and pay for it with USD.

All that said, the reverse is certainly not true.  If it was in our absolutely vital national interest, we could raise the U.S. flag on any spot on Earth.  We may not be able to keep it there forever, but there are no forces on the planet that can withstand a determined assault by us. 

[Monkeyleg]

Not trying to veer the thread too far, but the Chinese don't need to launch a military assault against us. They could bring us to our knees by selling our T-bonds.

[Gewehr98]

Or just cut off our supply of computer parts and WalMart wares. 

[MicroBalrog]

Not trying to veer the thread too far, but the Chinese don't need to launch a military assault against us. They could bring us to our knees by selling our T-bonds.

Wouldn't this cause the value of the T-bonds to drop to far, far below what America originally got on them?

[vaskidmark]

As the originator of PRC-as-boogeyman in this discussion, I'd like to say something and then ask a question.

I picked PRC as the boogeyman because I could not think of any other country that might be capable of actually assaulting the USA.  I have always enjoyed the mental image of Mongolian hordes riding ponies across the Bering Sea ice.

Since we are all pretty much in agreement that PRC would have little to gain by actually invading the USA, who else can we select as potental boogeymen?

stay safe.

skidmark

[Gewehr98]

Kalifornistan expanding its borders? 

[Strings]

>Since we are all pretty much in agreement that PRC would have little to gain by actually invading the USA, who else can we select as potental boogeymen?<

Way back when, did anyone around the globe really see us becoming the powerhouse that we are today? Certainly not the British...

[roo_ster]

HUMINT ain't cheap.  None of the INTs are, but HUMINT especially so.  People tend to get killed getting the info...

Agreed, 100%.

I am intentionally picking the weak sister of all our intel means...because most our other intel means range from "pretty good" to "best in class."

One necessary (but insufficient) requirement for robust HUMINT is that the chain of command all the way up & down has some balls.  This is why post-(Eugene) McCarthy Democrat administrations always allow it to wither on the vine and very few Republican administrations ever manage it.  Toss in a risk-averse spook bureaucracy(1) and we are stuck with spooks working out of the embassy who don't speak the local language kissing up to local ministry functionaries...and CIA has no one on the ground in Iraq/Iran/Nextfightistan.

Curse Rumsfeld if you want, he understood our extant humint programswere worthless and worked to develop a DOD humint capacity.




(1) Given the way that the lefties & BHO/any Dem admin wants to prosecute CIA & other executive branch folk for policy disagreements, I can't entirely blame them.

[MicroBalrog]

>Since we are all pretty much in agreement that PRC would have little to gain by actually invading the USA, who else can we select as potental boogeymen?<

Way back when, did anyone around the globe really see us becoming the powerhouse that we are today? Certainly not the British...

Tom Paine did. And Franklin did - and early on, he saw himself as a British citizen and tried to prevent dissolution.

[Hutch]

Upon reflection, we're thinking about this all wrong.

The next time we sally a major military formation into a shooting battle, it's most likely to be to protect something seen as our vital national interest somewhere other than the CONUS.  A redux of the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, somewhere else.  Maybe the PRC engages in a scuffle in the East Indies, or the Syrians/Egyptians decide to look up the Israelis again.  We need oil from the ME, and the Iranians are in a position to stop the flow.  Hmmmm.... anybody heard if Tom Clancy is writing any more books?  Seems like many of his turn out to have been a prediction.

As another alternative, maybe it would be a border war with a Mexico that has fallen to drug lords.

[wmenorr67]

Agreed, 100%.

I am intentionally picking the weak sister of all our intel means...because most our other intel means range from "pretty good" to "best in class."

One necessary (but insufficient) requirement for robust HUMINT is that the chain of command all the way up & down has some balls.  This is why post-(Eugene) McCarthy Democrat administrations always allow it to wither on the vine and very few Republican administrations ever manage it.  Toss in a risk-averse spook bureaucracy(1) and we are stuck with spooks working out of the embassy who don't speak the local language kissing up to local ministry functionaries...and CIA has no one on the ground in Iraq/Iran/Nextfightistan.

Curse Rumsfeld if you want, he understood our extant humint programswere worthless and worked to develop a DOD humint capacity.




(1) Given the way that the lefties & BHO/any Dem admin wants to prosecute CIA & other executive branch folk for policy disagreements, I can't entirely blame them.

Not sure what your background is but calling HUMINT the weak sister in the INTEL community isn't true.  I know for a fact that HUMINT is probably the closest guarded sister of them all.  Those that work in it put their lives on the line daily and even with my TS/SCI, I rarely get to mess in the HUMINT world without being blindfolded before getting to the room so to speak.

[taurusowner]

My original question was geared more towards capabilities, not geopolitical probabilities.  As a soldier, everything I see about the Army is geared towards fighting terrorists with ancient AKs.  We hardly do NBC traning, we don't training to fight against massive amounts of well equipped troops, all of our vehicles are meant to stop IEDs.  The Army has trimmed itself into the leaner faster more technological and automated army it is today, in order to fight terrorists.  My question is, is the current US military, capable of fighting a military that isn't made up of a handful of ill equipped zealots?

[MillCreek]

^^^ I am this very moment reading a number of books about biological warfare and boy does that give me a pucker factor.  Although weaponizing mass amounts of BW is the real engineering trick, you can do a lot with a little.  I also read some articles just recently casting doubt on the recent US anthrax attacks as being solely attributable to Dr. Bruce Ivins.  I sure hope that our lack of military and civilian preparedness for NBC warfare, especially the B and the C, doesn't come back to bite us some day.

[MechAg94]

My original question was geared more towards capabilities, not geopolitical probabilities.  As a soldier, everything I see about the Army is geared towards fighting terrorists with ancient AKs.  We hardly do NBC traning, we don't training to fight against massive amounts of well equipped troops, all of our vehicles are meant to stop IEDs.  The Army has trimmed itself into the leaner faster more technological and automated army it is today, in order to fight terrorists.  My question is, is the current US military, capable of fighting a military that isn't made up of a handful of ill equipped zealots?

IMO, we could.  

However, any army (ours included) that has not fought a major war against a truly capable military in a long time will have to relearn a lot of old lessons as well as new ones.  The question is how good our leadership will be able to adapt and learn.
As far as our equipment, I figure some of it will perform poorly and some it will perform excellently.  No one is going to have a perfect array of equipment.  

My other thought was about the sheer amount of money and material that goes into a truly modern army or navy.  How many countries out there could not only afford to build it, but afford to risk it in action.  Russia is certainly not a country to be left out of the discussion.  IMO, Russia and China are serious adversaries, but I am not sure either of them is a threat outside their own area of the world at least right now.

That is one reason I never had a problem with the military spending money on R&D trying to make sure we had the most capable planes and vehicles we can.  It makes it more likely we would win or stop any initial engagement; or more importantly, make it less likely anyone would try.

[Zardozimo Oprah Bannedalas]

I can't see China invading the mainland US, but they would like to have Taiwan. I figure that a fight between China and the US would be similar to the Falklands - short, violent, and limited in scope.

[roo_ster]

Not sure what your background is but calling HUMINT the weak sister in the INTEL community isn't true.  I know for a fact that HUMINT is probably the closest guarded sister of them all.  Those that work in it put their lives on the line daily and even with my TS/SCI, I rarely get to mess in the HUMINT world without being blindfolded before getting to the room so to speak.
[/quote

Oh, its value is great, but our ability to engage in it is weak and it has been demonstrated to be weak time & time again.

[MechAg94]

Here are a couple videos that show are martial preparedness for all to see!!!!


http://www.collegehumor.com/video:1928396

http://www.collegehumor.com/video:1928396

[Balog]

Imho if a major power capable of a multi-regional conflict arose we'd nuke them.

[Gewehr98]

Taurusowner's question has been asked before. 

The current DoD/JCS ops plan has been to fight and win Two Major Theater Conflicts (peer level) + Homeland Defense, simultaneously.  As far as I know, that's still the game plan.  Iraq and Afghanistan aren't considered peers in that scale, and don't come close to the forces and logistics planned for such large-scale conflicts.  They're a draw on resources, sure, but NOT the major theater conflicts as planned for by the big heads in the Puzzle Palace. 

[MicroBalrog]

The current DoD/JCS ops plan has been to fight and win Two Major Theater Conflicts (peer level) + Homeland Defense, simultaneously.  As far as I know, that's still the game plan.  Iraq and Afghanistan aren't considered peers in that scale, and don't come close to the forces and logistics planned for such large-scale conflicts.  They're a draw on resources, sure, but NOT the major theater conflicts as planned for by the big heads in the Puzzle Palace. 

They sure do think big.

[Gewehr98]

Well, yeah...

Compared to Israel, everything we do over here is big, MB. 

[Strings]

Well, so long as they don't plan on a major land war in Asia, we should be fine... 

[roo_ster]

Last month DOD & POTUS shinola-canned the "two MTW" concept and pared it down to one MTW.

[MechAg94]

Taurusowner's question has been asked before. 

The current DoD/JCS ops plan has been to fight and win Two Major Theater Conflicts (peer level) + Homeland Defense, simultaneously.  As far as I know, that's still the game plan.  Iraq and Afghanistan aren't considered peers in that scale, and don't come close to the forces and logistics planned for such large-scale conflicts.  They're a draw on resources, sure, but NOT the major theater conflicts as planned for by the big heads in the Puzzle Palace. 

Didn't that philosophy pre-date the draw down of forces in the 90's?  Do we still have the manpower to do that?

[Gewehr98]

According to my sources in the Puzzle Palace, the two-war construct is actually still in effect, even if they're giving lip-service to the smaller plan. My guess is they're just going to give it a name change.