http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0709/25479.htmlGOP gets break as Bunning bows out
By: Manu Raju and Josh Kraushaar
July 27, 2009 04:28 PM EST
Sen. Jim Bunning’s decision to bow out of his tough Senate race gives the GOP new life in Kentucky, as the irascible senator succumbed to a quiet pressure campaign by top Republicans to push him out of the 2010 midterm elections.
In a parting shot at Senate GOP leadership, Bunning appeared to accuse fellow Kentuckian and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of freezing him out from the fundraising he would need to mount a serious Senate campaign. Bunning said that Washington Republicans had “done everything in their power” to force him out.
“To win a general election, a candidate has to be able to raise millions of dollars to get the message out to voters,” Bunning said. “Over the past year, some of the leaders of the Republican Party in the Senate have done everything in their power to dry up my fundraising. The simple fact is that I have not raised the funds necessary to run an effective campaign for the U.S. Senate.”
Bunning’s money numbers were remarkably weak leading up to this announcement — he raised just $567,000 through the end of June, a paltry sum for a sitting senator up for reelection and a far cry from the more than $21 million McConnell spent in his 2008 race. In recent months, Bunning has blamed McConnell for drying up funds for him back home.
McConnell had stayed silent about Bunning’s reelection hopes, declined to offer Bunning his endorsement, gave no staff help and didn’t donate a dime to Bunning’s struggling campaign. Some believe that McConnell actually prolonged Bunning’s presence in the race, since he sought to defy the powerful minority leader and continue his bid for a third term.
But in the end, McConnell, the ultimate Senate insider who is highly regarded in the state’s political establishment, trumped the often cantankerous junior senator. And McConnell now has the competitive race he wanted instead of a campaign heavily favoring the Democrats.
McConnell’s actions “made it harder for Bunning, because he had to give in to McConnell,” said Al Cross, a state political expert at the University of Kentucky. “If McConnell didn’t take the stance he did, you wouldn’t see as many Bunning contributors giving to [Trey] Grayson.”
In a statement, McConnell made no mention of the controversy and said he was “honored” to work with Bunning for two terms.
“His steadfast focus on serving the people of the commonwealth has been as unwavering as his conservative ideals,” McConnell said. “Kentucky is a far better place because of his service. While he may have decided not to run for reelection, I am confident that he will continue to be a valued member of our conference and contribute in meaningful ways for years to come.”
With that praise out of the way, McConnell can now get to work keeping Bunning’s seat in Republican hands.
Bunning’s retirement immediately transforms the Senate race, setting up a competitive GOP primary between two candidates: Grayson, the Kentucky secretary of state, and Rand Paul, the son of Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas). Cathy Bailey, the former U.S. ambassador to Latvia and wealthy former Bush fundraiser, is also considering the race but hasn’t decided whether to run.
Grayson is expected to announce his campaign kickoff later this week.
The Democrats are set for their own primary battle between state Attorney General Jack Conway — who has raised $1.3 million and has strong support from Louisville and most of the state party establishment — and Lt. Gov. Daniel Mongiardo, who narrowly lost to Bunning in 2004.
“Now it’s gone from going to a seat where it was a guaranteed Republican loss, and it’s now a tossup. We now have a 50 percent chance of winning,” said a senior GOP aide. “Politics is about more than convictions. It’s about being able to win.”
Kentucky traditionally votes Republican at the federal level, but Democrats still hold a significant registration advantage statewide. The state is home to many conservative Democrats who are pro-gun and anti-abortion and are skeptical of excessive government involvement. If dissatisfaction grows with the Obama administration’s spending and energy proposals — which would affect the coal-producing state — Republicans will have a better chance at keeping the seat.
A recent poll by Public Policy Polling, a Democratic firm, found Conway leading Bunning 42 percent to 33 percent — but he was ahead of Grayson by only 4 points, 37 percent to 33 percent. Mongiardo led Bunning 43 percent to 36 percent and trailed Grayson 40 percent to 36 percent, according to the poll.
Privately, top Republicans feared that the 77-year-old senator’s erratic behavior, poor fundraising and rock-bottom poll numbers would ensure he would have lost reelection in 2010. But the senator had for months resisted the pressure campaign and became increasingly confrontational with McConnell, who learned about the news just moments before Bunning’s announcement.
And Bunning had sent a number of mixed messages himself, especially when he blessed Grayson’s decision to form an exploratory committee to consider a bid.
“The fact that he put a competitor in the race against him and gave his blessing against him dramatically altered the fundraising dynamic in the race,” said Scott Jennings, a Kentucky-based GOP strategist who served as senior adviser to McConnell’s 2008 campaign. “Until then, he had no one against him, but when he put someone else in the race, that was what did him in. He hastened his own departure from the race.”
Bunning, one of the most conservative members of the Senate and a former Hall of Fame Major League Baseball pitcher, seems to be going out on his own terms, blasting away at his party’s establishment.
He said that he had always stood for Republican principles and cast votes thinking how they would affect Kentuckians, “not my next election or invitation to a D.C. cocktail party.”
In fact, Bunning spent his final weekend before announcing his retirement at the Baseball Hall of Fame ceremonies in Cooperstown, N.Y.
“The Republican Party needs more people with strong principles and convictions that can stand up to the temptations of political power that have engulfed so many of our leaders after they arrive inside the Beltway,” Bunning said.
And that stance could carry a risk for the GOP, said John David Dyche, a political expert in Kentucky who recently authored a biography on McConnell.
“Bunning leaves the race angry at McConnell, which poses some risk of a split within a Kentucky GOP that can ill afford it,” Dyche said.
© 2010 Capitol News Company, LLC
