Another take on it: The Republic of China did help us out in WW2 with Japan to an extent, and then we left them swinging in the wind when the communists decided to finish their take over of the main land in 1948. That came back to haunt us in 1950 during the Korean war when the PRC intervened on behalf of the DPRK (NorK's). It'd be a pretty dick move if we left the Republic of China (Taiwan) to get bludgeoned by the communists
a second time. ETA:
This is interesting.
Can the military buffs give a little insight on the PRC's current Naval, more importantly 'anti'Naval capabilities?
Also, what air power projection capabilities do they have over Taiwan? IIRC Argentina had a tough time keeping aircraft in the combat area due to lack of fuel resupply and a very distant airbase, that may have tipped the scales.
Are we ready and willing to take out strategic point targets inside mainland China? If so, how would the Chinese respond? How itchy is the Chinese nuclear trigger finger? How far would neocon types be willing to go if a couple of carrier fleets get beaten up?
Their submarines are getting there, but they're not quite there yet. The nuke boats are relatively young in regards to technological maturity and most of their diesel sub fleet is, or is based on, Russian export material which I'd list as about a generation behind the current state of the art. Victor: U.S.
Surface combatants. Well, they've got plenty of em. Mostly smaller craft, destroyers/frigates/corvettes and a mess of coastal patrol craft. Lack of carriers is a non-issue for them since they're not operating away from their own turf and subsequent air bases. They managed to steal the
entire collection electrical schematics for the Arleigh-Burke class destroyers a while back, so I'd consider the efficacy of the SPY-1 radars suspect in relation to jamming systems and the like. A massive barrage of anti-ship cruise missiles though, from say our four SSGN's, would still play merry hell with their surface fleet. Victor: Probably the U.S.
Their amphib capability is pretty bare and undeveloped (but again, they're working on it) compared to ours but could probably jump the straight if they weren't substantially opposed. A mess of infantry deployed ATGM's on the beaches could probably put a rather serious dent in any surface landings, friendly surface/air/sub combatants would stall it entirely. Victor: Taiwan/U.S.
Air assets are coming along at an accelerated pace courtesy stealing other peoples (ours mostly) tech. I'd give even odds on air superiority unless we committed our active F-22 squadrons to the issue. And then you have to ask: Where will we operate those from? Additionally they do have a few copies of the F-22 ripoff (J-20) up and flying and are planning to build more. They've also already successfully copied and produced large numbers of Russian Gen 4/5 jet fighters. The Para drops or helicopter insertion of troops is well within their capability. Victor: Eh, could go either way.