I wanna be a meteorologist

[Monkeyleg]

Yeah, I know. Everybody says that at least a hundred times.

I needed to put down a second treatment of a fungicide on my front lawn. The stuff isn't cheap at $100 a bag, which will do two treatments. It's supposed to be watered in lightly, but not a lot.

The forecast for Saturday was sunny, then a 40% chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. Sunday was 60% chance of thunderstorms all day. Today, tomorrow and Wednesday were supposed to be sunny.

I checked the forecasts about every hour all weekend and today, and  they didn't change. So today I put down the fungicide. Then I noticed the sky clouding up and getting darker. I checked the forecast and, sure enough, they're calling for a 20% chance of thunderstorms. I don't know where they get the 20%, as when I look at the radar the storms are all over the place. It will probably be 80% in a couple of hours, when the meteorologists look at the radar.

I'd do better to ask someone plugging a slot machine in Vegas.

[Hawkmoon]

I think it's ironic that the weather forecasts on the evening news when I was a kid in the fifties (long before weather radar and all the other technology) were generally more accurate than what we get today. Heck, my grandfather could just look at the clouds at sunset and predict the weather for tomorrow better than today's "meteorologists."

[230RN]

Yeah, but now they've got Weather Girls on TV.

[Harold Tuttle]

thunderstorms are a severe localized event

we have thunderstorms forecast for the county today

it may rain cats and dogs for 10 minutes at my office and be clear at home.

Last summer i videoed a rain line across a parkinglot.
It was dry where my Jeep was parked and a downpour 10 yards away.
When I left, I drove into the rain inundation got on a highway and with in 50 yard i drove into sunshine.

[HankB]

I think it's ironic that the weather forecasts on the evening news when I was a kid in the fifties (long before weather radar and all the other technology) were generally more accurate than what we get today. Heck, my grandfather could just look at the clouds at sunset and predict the weather for tomorrow better than today's "meteorologists."

I'm a bit younger than you (substitute "sixties" for "fifties") but I could have written an otherwise identical post. Dad was in the Army Air Corps during WWII, and I remember him telling me that his group's weather men were better than what we had in "modern" times with radar and satellites.

I've noticed lately that the TV weather readers frequently begin their forecast with "A computer model says . . . " so when the forecast is a bust, they can (of course) blame the computer; it's not THEIR fault, after all.

And I wish I had a nickel for every time I've heard one of them say something along the lines of  "Today's low was 45 degrees, currently we're at 37 . . . " 

[KD5NRH]

I've noticed lately that the TV weather readers frequently begin their forecast with "A computer model says . . . " so when the forecast is a bust, they can (of course) blame the computer; it's not THEIR fault, after all.

Exactly; the real meteorologists back in the day had to pay some f'ing attention to what's actually going on instead of having the computer to blame everything on.

Reminds me of the good old days when the local radio station's weather report was almost always preceded by the sound of someone either opening the door or pulling up the blinds to look outside.

[HankB]

Exactly; the real meteorologists back in the day had to pay some f'ing attention to what's actually going on instead of having the computer to blame everything on.

Reminds me of the good old days when the local radio station's weather report was almost always preceded by the sound of someone either opening the door or pulling up the blinds to look outside.

Legend had it that one of the Chicago stations improved the accuracy of their current forecast when they moved the weather center to a room with a window.

I've often thought that weather reports would be more entertaining if they were done outside, with no roof . . . and the weatherman had to be dressed based on his forecast from 24 hours earlier. 

[230RN]

Son2 mentioned that the other night, the tornado sirens went off at 3AM because of a "computer glitch."  So they said the next day.

"Yeah, sure," he wisecracked. "Blame it on the computer.  Probably someone's nose just hit the button when they dozed off."

[cassandra and sara's daddy]

Dad was a research meteorologist for 35 years. Still dabbles 25 years after retiring. I call for forecast he says check the rock. Rock wet rain. Rock white snow. In the good old days their forecasts were much less specific and not that accurate even then.


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[lupinus]

Legend had it that one of the Chicago stations improved the accuracy of their current forecast when they moved the weather center to a room with a window.

I've often thought that weather reports would be more entertaining if they were done outside, with no roof . . . and the weatherman had to be dressed based on his forecast from 24 hours earlier. 

sounds like a hell of a game show

[230RN]

I are now qualified as a weather expert.  Started to smell the dumpster.  Holiday yesterday, no garbage pickup.  Sez I to me, "Betcha the wind is from the northeast."

Checked the weather site graph.  Sho' 'nuff, I was right.

[vaskidmark]

Yeah, but now they've got Weather Girls on TV.

Were it not for the weather girls on AFVN-TV I would never have been able to operate my "community tv antenna" racket - $0.50 for a monthly subscription and you could see up the weather girl's miniskirt.  Also, you could get OJT from "Combat!" and "The Rat Patrol".  No subscription and good luck getting anything other than snow using your integral whip antenna.  (Aluminum foil "bowties" sometimes let you see what might be a human body in the snow - sometimes.)

stay safe.

[KD5NRH]

Son2 mentioned that the other night, the tornado sirens went off at 3AM because of a "computer glitch."  So they said the next day.

Our old ones would sometimes trigger when rain made it past the 40 year old seals on the control boxes.  Lovely feature when you're dealing with a woman who's already a bit panicky and the siren down the street from her house triggers every time there's a 3-4 hour drizzle.

[Jocassee]

I have found weather reports here in upstate SC to be pretty reliable 2-3 days out. Occasionally I will catch them in a lie but it is usually obvious when I wake up in the morning what the weather will be. Helps that we have an excruciatingly predictable weather pattern here.

[cordex]

Out of curiosity, in the Good Ol' Days when meteorologists were reliable, how did they do so much better?  What non-computerized models did they apply that can't be applied today with better technology and better data?

[vaskidmark]

Out of curiosity, in the Good Ol' Days when meteorologists were reliable, how did they do so much better?  What non-computerized models did they apply that can't be applied today with better technology and better data?

They looked at the sky both in the morning and at sundown, and read the telegraphs from folks to the west of them who said what their weather was like.  They also only forcast 24-48 hours out.  Mostly what they did was save the city folks from having to climb all the way up to the roof twice a day.

Computer-based forecast models stretch out as much as 45 days ahead.  There's a lot of variability that far ahead.

I'm more concerned with the jokers who tell me there's a 20% chance of light showers when it's coming down in buckets.  It's like they don't bother to look put a window any more.  (What's worse, they have those "Some Business That Sponsors Them Weather Net"s that put guages and CCTV cameras all over the area - and still they are amazed when they pull up the video feed and notice it does not match the computer model of what the weather should be.

I can't find the clip. but in Good Morning, Vietnam there is a scene where they discuss the weather report saying it will be cooler - something about the fact that it was 103* yesterday and will only be 102* today.  Only weatherpersons could get worked up about that.

stay safe.

[cassandra and sara's daddy]

When a forecast covers an area and says 20 percent if it rains in 1/5 of the area it's correct.


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[Scout26]

We used to joke that being a weatherman on AFN in Germany was the easiest job in the world.


"It's going to rain/snow tomorrow."

[cordex]

They looked at the sky both in the morning and at sundown, and read the telegraphs from folks to the west of them who said what their weather was like.  They also only forcast 24-48 hours out.  Mostly what they did was save the city folks from having to climb all the way up to the roof twice a day.

Right, but that's not better/more accurate than we have today.

Computer-based forecast models stretch out as much as 45 days ahead.  There's a lot of variability that far ahead.

Totally agree, but that is more an issue of pushing the envelope of available techniques rather than being worse at their job now than back when, isn't it?

I'm more concerned with the jokers who tell me there's a 20% chance of light showers when it's coming down in buckets.  It's like they don't bother to look put a window any more.

As Harold mentioned, thunderstorms and rain can be very localized.  Just a couple days ago I was driving back to work and noticed a couple of tiny droplets on my windshield.  The sun was shining and the pavement was dry.  About 100 yards ahead it was absolutely pouring down and traffic was splashing through puddles.  The significant rain stayed north of that intersection all day.

Given a forecast for a multi-county region, it may well be that on average there is a 20% chance of rain for the region.  Some of the region may get a lot of rain and some nothing at all, but that isn't so much a weakness of the forecast as it is trying to apply a simple description to a large area affected by a complex system.

[onions!]

I'm surprised that no one has mentioned how totally geeked out weatherpeople get when something out of the ordinary rolls in.
In West Michigan if there's hail they get a little excited.
Funnel clouds over the Lake and they get a spark in their eyes.
Tornado?Woo boy!Interesting,lets show pics of downed trees!
Polar Vortex?OMG!Their on air time gets quadrupled and they get to go into educator mode.It's amusing and irritating at the same time.

If we had hurricanes or lots of tornadoes they'd be insufferable!

I observed one in the wild a few years back.He was,with family,at a Meijer store.He had the same smiling demeanor that he has on air.It was disgusting.The forecast is wrong most of the time for anything more than a couple days out.I wanted(I really did!) to make a smart aleck comment.He was just so genuinely nice that I couldn't.*sigh*
 

[Monkeyleg]

As Harold mentioned, thunderstorms and rain can be very localized.  Just a couple days ago I was driving back to work and noticed a couple of tiny droplets on my windshield.  The sun was shining and the pavement was dry.  About 100 yards ahead it was absolutely pouring down and traffic was splashing through puddles.  The significant rain stayed north of that intersection all day.

On one motorcycle trip out west, I was returning through Nebraska. Through the entire state there was a thunderstorm to the south of me. It couldn't have been more than a couple miles away. I could see the rain. Every time I appeared to be driving into it, the highway curved away and kept the storm a couple miles to the south. Never seen anything like that.

[HankB]

When I still lived in Chicago, on many occasions during the winter I shoveled 6" or more of the weathermans's partly cloudy skies off my sidewalk.

Being a TV weatherman in a major market has got to be a dream job - salary well into 6 figures, an intern does your maps, you only have to paraphrase the National Weather Service (perish the thought you'll work up a forecast yourself like they did a few decades back) . . . and competence is neither expected nor required.

[230RN]

". . . and competence is neither expected nor required. "




Riiiiight.

[Monkeyleg]

She sure looks competent to me.

[HankB]

She sure looks competent to me.

Her boyfriend, when shopping for her Christmas gift, was given this advice: "Get her something you can both enjoy, like a tight sweater."