The rouble is in trouble

[Balog]

Seems to me that this is a recipe for disaster. Economic problems in Russia mean Putin will need to rachet up the agit-prop and find an external enemy to distract folks from the internal issues.

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-30276353

[Angel Eyes]

My guess is the Ukrainians are in for it. 

Again.

[Hawkmoon]

I still think the U.S. and NATO blew it when they didn't pour reinforcements in when Russia invaded the Crimea. With our wimpy, Mr. Milquetoast president, Nero is fiddling while Rome is burning.

[Northwoods]

When I saw the thread title I thought John had misspelled rubble in reference to Fergistan. 

[Scout26]

Some of the more salient points in that Article.

1.  Demand from Chinese factories is down.  Almost to the point on China having a contracting economy.
2.  European Factory orders make Chinese orders look downright giddy.  I believe the term used was   
"The situation in euro area manufacturing is worse than previously thought... there is a risk that renewed rot is spreading across the region from the core."
3.  A huge oversupply (under demand) of oil is driving the price of crude to ~$60 per barrel and may drop further.  OPEC has decided not to cut production.  Therefore I predict that a few/some/many/most oil producing countries will also maintain and probably increase production to maintain their cashflow, driving the price still lower.  I predict it will bottom out at ~$40/barrel.

[zxcvbob]

When I saw the thread title I thought John had misspelled rubble in reference to Fergistan. 

I thought, "Barney's in trouble!"

[wmenorr67]

Some of the more salient points in that Article.

1.  Demand from Chinese factories is down.  Almost to the point on China having a contracting economy.
2.  European Factory orders make Chinese orders look downright giddy.  I believe the term used was   
"The situation in euro area manufacturing is worse than previously thought... there is a risk that renewed rot is spreading across the region from the core."
3.  A huge oversupply (under demand) of oil is driving the price of crude to ~$60 per barrel and may drop further.  OPEC has decided not to cut production.  Therefore I predict that a few/some/many/most oil producing countries will also maintain and probably increase production to maintain their cashflow, driving the price still lower.  I predict it will bottom out at ~$40/barrel.

See OPEC and especially Saudi to continue to flood the market to drive prices down with hope to crash our oil exploration efforts.  Make it where it isn't profitable then when we stop producing they cut production.

[roo_ster]

I still think the U.S. and NATO blew it when they didn't pour reinforcements in when Russia invaded the Crimea. With our wimpy, Mr. Milquetoast president, Nero is fiddling while Rome is burning.

Wondering how Ukraine is our business?  And how many bodies of water must be traversed before any water originating in Ukraine makes it to the North Atlantic?

NATO other than the USA does not have the ability to project power beyond its borders. 

[Scout26]

See OPEC and especially Saudi to continue to flood the market to drive prices down with hope to crash our oil exploration efforts.  Make it where it isn't profitable then when we stop producing they cut production.

I don't think so.  They need the money to fund their welfare economies.  They have huge numbers of unemployed young males.  It's easy to pay them to do nothing, but should they not be able to pay them to do that nothing, they might take out their anger on the existing governments. 

And given what they've observed in Egypt, Tunsia, Iraq, and Syria; both the Saudis and Iranians (along with the smaller gulf states and especially Venezuela) are willing to do anything to keep a lid on domestic issues.  I bet they even "cheat" on their production quotas to maintain their cashflow. Further driving down the prices of oil.   Wil that effecy US Production?  Probably.  As the margins decrease either less costly ways to extract will be developed or unprofitable operations will be terminated.   That might (and probably will) eliminate some jobs in the oil patch in the short term, but the oil will still be there for the extraction later.

Given that that area is currently the only one "growing" in this economy, that will hurt.  However, lower energy prices overall will be a net plus for the economy.

[MicroBalrog]

Wondering how Ukraine is our business?  And how many bodies of water must be traversed before any water originating in Ukraine makes it to the North Atlantic?

NATO other than the USA does not have the ability to project power beyond its borders. 

Need I list all the countries France is intervening in right now?

[Scout26]

France is not a NATO  member.  And they generally only intervene in their former colonies.

[MicroBalrog]

France is not a NATO  member.  And they generally only intervene in their former colonies.

France has been a NATO member for years. At one point they withdrew from some of the command structures established by NATO, but they have resumed full participation in 2009.

[roo_ster]

Need I list all the countries France is intervening in right now?

Force projection requires more than the ability to make unopposed landings at airfields and port facilities.

[charby]

I don't think so.  They need the money to fund their welfare economies.  They have huge numbers of unemployed young males.  It's easy to pay them to do nothing, but should they not be able to pay them to do that nothing, they might take out their anger on the existing governments. 

And given what they've observed in Egypt, Tunsia, Iraq, and Syria; both the Saudis and Iranians (along with the smaller gulf states and especially Venezuela) are willing to do anything to keep a lid on domestic issues.  I bet they even "cheat" on their production quotas to maintain their cashflow. Further driving down the prices of oil.   Wil that effecy US Production?  Probably.  As the margins decrease either less costly ways to extract will be developed or unprofitable operations will be terminated.   That might (and probably will) eliminate some jobs in the oil patch in the short term, but the oil will still be there for the extraction later.

Given that that area is currently the only one "growing" in this economy, that will hurt.  However, lower energy prices overall will be a net plus for the economy.

OMG we agree on something??  :)

Also I saw a new article that ExxonMobile can weather $40/barrel prices.

I'm wondering if cheaper oil was expected all along and it was just a bunch of clowns that drove the market up for financial gain or driven up to pay for investment to get the harder to get oil.

[Scout26]

It is a world wide commodity.  Driven by supply and demand.  Like everything else.  However, like food, it is one that is in demand by nearly everyone.

With Canada becoming a large net exporter, the US much more self-sufficient then ever before, along with Russia selling oil to China for Rubles, Britain getting most of it's oil from the North Sea along with Libya producing for basically France, the demand for oil from the (rest) of the Middle East is diminished.

Throw in a global economy in recession (with that reduced demand) and you get what is happening now.  Over supply and under demand.  Prices have dropped and will continue to drop.   They will stay low because of the reasons I previously stated.  The OPEC countries need cashflow to prop up their economies, if that amount of money is not there, then they will simply pump more oil to maintain that cashflow.   Putin could be a in world of trouble at home if the Ruble continues to fall as it's forcing Russia into recession.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/francescoppola/2014/12/03/how-to-destroy-a-currency-russian-style/

I'm simply surprised that Obama hasn't taken credit for falling oil prices yet*, even though prices would have dropped more and sooner had he opened up public lands (ANWR) and the areas offshore on all coasts to drilling. 


* Although his environmentalist friends are probably pulling their hair out.   Cheap hydrocarbon based energy is their biggest enemy.

[MicroBalrog]

Force projection requires more than the ability to make unopposed landings at airfields and port facilities.

What does it require that France does not have?

[AJ Dual]

What does it require that France does not have?

Logistics tail in depth, defense in depth. Air power projection at intercontinental/cross-ocean distances. Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't believe France has a ton of capability beyond reaching N. Africa, and some of it's islands and former colonies, or acting as part of a coalition like in Afghanistan.

But inherent in the idea is that "force projection", at least as I think the American media and political class considers the term, is a nation and it's military that's capable of action when opposed on a theater-wide basis, or by a peer-level military power, not just one that's trying to quash some asymmetrical warfare and insurgencies, or dealing with ;individual rogue third-world nations and failed states.

Although that particular assumption is untested, since obviously there hasn't been such theater-scale war or conflict since WWII, and despite the Cold War, other than proxy engagements, that buildup and deployment happened largely under peacetime conditions and open seas.

(although the Soviets certainly backed down when it became clear we were deadly serious and ready to go if need be during the Cuban Missile Crisis)

[roo_ster]

Logistics tail in depth, defense in depth. Air power projection at intercontinental/cross-ocean distances. Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't believe France has a ton of capability beyond reaching N. Africa, and some of it's islands and former colonies, or acting as part of a coalition like in Afghanistan.

But inherent in the idea is that "force projection", at least as I think the American media and political class considers the term, is a nation and it's military that's capable of action when opposed on a theater-wide basis, or by a peer-level military power, not just one that's trying to quash some asymmetrical warfare and insurgencies, or dealing with ;individual rogue third-world nations and failed states.

Although that particular assumption is untested, since obviously there hasn't been such theater-scale war or conflict since WWII, and despite the Cold War, other than proxy engagements, that buildup and deployment happened largely under peacetime conditions and open seas.

(although the Soviets certainly backed down when it became clear we were deadly serious and ready to go if need be during the Cuban Missile Crisis)

This.  Also...

Flying in your troops on chartered airline flights into a friendly airfield is not an example of "force projection." 

Taking an airfield held by capable, hostile forces and being able to airlift a light infantry brigade into the AO in a few days and then being able to keep them supplied while they are conducting operations in hostile territory...using only your country's airlift capabilities is an example of force projection.    Bonus points if the hostile forces have decent anti-air capabilities. 

Similar tasks WRT heavy brigades and sealift against a hostile shore and/or port facility.

"Force projection" entails more than just militant powerpoint briefings.

Recent examples of NATO/W Europe's lack of force projection include the Libyan bombing campaign.   Pretty much undo-able without the USA.  And that was merely across the Med Sea.

[SADShooter]

This.  Also...

Flying in your troops on chartered airline flights into a friendly airfield is not an example of "force projection." 

Taking an airfield held by capable, hostile forces and being able to airlift a light infantry brigade into the AO in a few days and then being able to keep them supplied while they are conducting operations in hostile territory...using only your country's airlift capabilities is an example of force projection.    Bonus points if the hostile forces have decent anti-air capabilities. 

Similar tasks WRT heavy brigades and sealift against a hostile shore and/or port facility.

"Force projection" entails more than just militant powerpoint briefings.

Recent examples of NATO/W Europe's lack of force projection include the Libyan bombing campaign.   Pretty much undo-able without the USA.  And that was merely across the Med Sea.

And let's not forget that the aircraft they did deploy to launch strikes had to ask for munitions from the U.S. midway into operations because they ran out.

[41magsnub]

An immediate effect of the ruble falling - prostitutes in Murmansk are much more expensive now!   http://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-news-from-elsewhere-30311546

[Scout26]

An immediate effect of the ruble falling - prostitutes in Murmansk are much more expensive now!   http://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-news-from-elsewhere-30311546

But mail-order Russian brides should be cheap !!!

 

[RoadKingLarry]

What does it require that France does not have?

Balls, spine, intestinal fortitude.

[Balog]

Not looking good for the Russkies.

http://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/this-is-what-a-currency-collapse-looks-like-shopping-frenzy-we-have-a-lot-of-rubles-losing-value-every-second_12172014

[brimic]

But mail-order Russian brides should be cheap !!!

 

Yay!
But they all have AIDS.
Awww!

[Ron]

Yay!
But they all have AIDS.
Awww!

The whole national character has been debased and ruined by the outlawing of religious freedom and the decades of cultural Marxism.

It is a country of lies, deceptions and corruption.

I don't care how hot she is; if she is morally vacuous I'm running away!