Author Topic: Evidence of alien life expected in next few decades  (Read 18873 times)

Ben

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Re: Evidence of alien life expected in next few decades
« Reply #50 on: April 08, 2015, 09:14:46 PM »
The jury is still out on that.  

Not that it matters in any practical sense.  Even the smallest estimates of a finite universe are still colossally humongously huge, which doesn't change the argument in any meaningful way.  

Indeed. The very, very, very, tiny 48 billion or so years worth of the universe that we can even see contains 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 stars. That's just stars, not planets, planetoids, asteroid, moons, etc. The Hubble has been finding multiple planets around stars like crazy over the last few years. These are incomprehensibly large numbers of surfaces that could potentially support life, may support life in the future, or could have supported life in the past. It's a four dimensional game of hide and seek.
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Andiron

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Re: Evidence of alien life expected in next few decades
« Reply #51 on: April 08, 2015, 10:00:22 PM »


Like Millcreek, I hope I'm still around to see positive proof, even if it is only microscopic. It would be neat though, if the first image is of a Europan fish swimming in front of the probe camera.  :laugh:

What you guys said.  That would be too cool.  And we've still got time, if NASA can get it's crap together.
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Re: Evidence of alien life expected in next few decades
« Reply #52 on: April 08, 2015, 10:03:05 PM »
Indeed. The very, very, very, tiny 48 billion or so years worth of the universe that we can even see contains 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 stars. That's just stars, not planets, planetoids, asteroid, moons, etc. The Hubble has been finding multiple planets around stars like crazy over the last few years. These are incomprehensibly large numbers of surfaces that could potentially support life, may support life in the future, or could have supported life in the past. It's a four dimensional game of hide and seek.

The big assumption is that life arises from inanimate matter due to as rooster says, the pixie dust of time.

And arguing if it maybe could happen, it did happen, because infinity, doesn't seem very scientific to me.

Personally If we locate life or signs of life outside of earth I would be excited and feel honored to be alive during such a momentous occasion in our history.

Under most probable scenarios I can think of I don't see where the discovery would change or threaten my views on the source or nature of life.



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Ben

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Re: Evidence of alien life expected in next few decades
« Reply #53 on: April 08, 2015, 10:13:55 PM »
The big assumption is that life arises from inanimate matter due to as rooster says, the pixie dust of time.

Time is only one factor. It's the infinite, or very large finite, number of possible combinations of elements in the correct "crucible" if you will. It also doesn't have to be the same combination that led to life on Earth. It doesn't necessarily need to be carbon based either.

http://www.dailygalaxy.com/my_weblog/2011/05/stephen-hawking-on-non-carbon-based-alien-life.html
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Firethorn

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Re: Evidence of alien life expected in next few decades
« Reply #54 on: April 08, 2015, 10:39:53 PM »
The big assumption is that life arises from inanimate matter due to as rooster says, the pixie dust of time.

And arguing if it maybe could happen, it did happen, because infinity, doesn't seem very scientific to me.

There's an old thought experiment known as the Drake Equation.  There are even calculators that will tell you how many civilizations should be around as a resultThis one even estimates how far apart they would be.

We know it DID happen, because of us.  The question is thus whether it's happened(or will happen) elsewhere.  The sheer number of stars in our universe simply means that even if you plug state lottery level odds into the unknowns, while you might end up with us being the only intelligent life in the Milky Way, it's unlikely that we're the only one in the Galaxy.  Meanwhile, while still rare, planets with life, just not 'intelligent' life, would be relatively common.

Plugging in 10% for most of the variables gives an expected separation between communicative civilizations of almost 3k ly.  That's far enough that it's probable that we'd have a long while before we could detect them - we've only been listening, kinda-sortof, for less than 100 years.

Perd Hapley

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Re: Evidence of alien life expected in next few decades
« Reply #55 on: April 09, 2015, 12:15:46 AM »
Quote
What you guys said.  That would be too cool.  And we've still got time, if NASA can get it's crap together. get done boosting Islamic self-esteem, and go back to space exploration.

fixy-ricky-ticky
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Re: Evidence of alien life expected in next few decades
« Reply #56 on: April 09, 2015, 03:13:02 AM »
No surprising, and not indicative of a negative.  In the early solar system, elements and isotopes did fractionate w.r.t. Orbital radius, (one reason why inner planets are rocky, outer are less so), so it's not that weird that isotopic differences between hydrogen isotopes and thus water (especially given the relative mass differences) on inner planets (regardless of being deposited by cometary bodies during accretion or not) would be different than cometary bodies on higher semi major axis orbits (like what are seen today).

Also, it's a matter of time in how one phrases the argument, as cometary impacts during accretion is simply part of accretion, (and thus the basis of the non-extraterrestrial water theory) while others regard the extraterrestrial water to occur after the main body solidified.  Two sides of the same coin.
Since any ice-ball is properly termed a comet, regardless of what side you agree with, any water on earth was likely frozen out, condensed, accreted into ice-balls, and then deposited in the growing or already formed planet...so "water from comets" is (while ambiguous in terms of time) pretty much accurate.

The other argument is that earth now, and even more so during formation is unable to gravitationally capture hydrogen on a long term basis (net loss is greater than net gain), so accreating hydrogen and then reacting it with a created oxygen to form water over time doesn't pass muster.  In fact, due to charged particle impacts and UV disassociation of water, we actually continually lose hydrogen even now.
(And helium as well, which is why it's so important to recycle it/not vent it...once vented, it's gone).

Something I've been wondering, how huge of a ball of ice would it have to be to create the amount of water that there is.
Why do some people even think that the water came from somewhere else?
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Re: Evidence of alien life expected in next few decades
« Reply #57 on: April 09, 2015, 03:30:27 AM »
The theories I've read about don't try to suggest all our water came in one big delivery.
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Re: Evidence of alien life expected in next few decades
« Reply #58 on: April 09, 2015, 04:15:05 AM »
Something I've been wondering, how huge of a ball of ice would it have to be to create the amount of water that there is.

On earth?

As a liquid, it would be 860 miles wide.

http://earthsky.org/earth/if-you-made-a-sphere-of-all-earths-water-how-big-would-it-be

Freeze it, and it would be a sphere of close to 960 miles wide, since ice increases in volume by about 9%.

Quote
Why do some people even think that the water came from somewhere else?

It's thought that shortly after the earth formed there was a period called the Late Heavy Bombardment, when the Earth was struck regularly with a large number of asteroids and comets. We know both asteroids and comets have a fair amount of water, so it's theorized quite a bit of earth's water could have come from that period.
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charby

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Re: Evidence of alien life expected in next few decades
« Reply #59 on: April 09, 2015, 08:02:34 AM »
Why do some people even think that the water came from somewhere else?

Ever try to make water?
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charby

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Re: Evidence of alien life expected in next few decades
« Reply #60 on: April 09, 2015, 08:12:42 AM »
fixy-ricky-ticky

If it wasn't for the Muslims and their science/mathematics/medicine (and libraries), there would have been a lot of knowledge lost during the dark ages when anything non Christian was destroyed. 
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brimic

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Re: Evidence of alien life expected in next few decades
« Reply #61 on: April 09, 2015, 08:25:11 AM »
If it wasn't for the Muslims and their science/mathematics/medicine (and libraries), there would have been a lot of knowledge lost during the dark ages when anything non Christian was destroyed. 

Who do you think was doing most of the destroying?
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Re: Evidence of alien life expected in next few decades
« Reply #62 on: April 09, 2015, 08:37:13 AM »
All you need in any of these probability equations is for something in the numerator to approach zero or something in the denominator to approach infinity and you end up with bupkis.  As with global warming models, I smell a whole lot of bending the calculations to find the desired result.

And as with global warming I think it serves a purpose similar to religion or helps satisfy some folks' religious impulses.  Kind of like other nerd-pocalypse scenarios like the singularity.
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charby

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Re: Evidence of alien life expected in next few decades
« Reply #63 on: April 09, 2015, 08:39:27 AM »
Who do you think was doing most of the destroying?

The same group who was doing all the persecutions and executions of heretics, the catholic church. Started with Constantine and really didn't change when they couldn't stop the movement around Martin Luther.

Church even promoted a northern crusade to rid northern Europe of pagans.
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Re: Evidence of alien life expected in next few decades
« Reply #64 on: April 09, 2015, 08:43:27 AM »
If it wasn't for the Muslims and their science/mathematics/medicine (and libraries), there would have been a lot of knowledge lost during the dark ages when anything non Christian was destroyed. 

The same group who was doing all the persecutions and executions of heretics, the catholic church. Started with Constantine and really didn't change when they couldn't stop the movement around Martin Luther.

Church even promoted a northern crusade to rid northern Europe of pagans.


That's funny right there. 
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Andiron

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Re: Evidence of alien life expected in next few decades
« Reply #65 on: April 09, 2015, 09:00:58 AM »

fixy-ricky-ticky

 :lol:

If it wasn't for the Muslims and their science/mathematics/medicine (and libraries), there would have been a lot of knowledge lost during the dark ages when anything non Christian was destroyed. 

http://www.politifact.com/texas/statements/2010/aug/01/michael-sullivan/michael-sullivan-says-nasa-administrator-said-main/

Fistful's humorous fix had nothing to do with Islam's prior contribution to science.  NASA director stuck his foot in his mouth a few years ago. 
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charby

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Re: Evidence of alien life expected in next few decades
« Reply #66 on: April 09, 2015, 09:13:47 AM »
That's funny right there. 

Because its true? The early Christian Catholic-State was a bunch of self serving aholes that wanted to keep the masses down and profit for themselves.
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charby

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Re: Evidence of alien life expected in next few decades
« Reply #67 on: April 09, 2015, 09:20:32 AM »
:lol:

http://www.politifact.com/texas/statements/2010/aug/01/michael-sullivan/michael-sullivan-says-nasa-administrator-said-main/

Fistful's humorous fix had nothing to do with Islam's prior contribution to science.  NASA director stuck his foot in his mouth a few years ago. 

Yea I remember that, I also remember they corrected themselves about helping the Muslim faith celebrate their contribution to science and mathematics.
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makattak

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Re: Evidence of alien life expected in next few decades
« Reply #68 on: April 09, 2015, 09:40:48 AM »
If it wasn't for the Muslims and their science/mathematics/medicine (and libraries), there would have been a lot of knowledge lost during the dark ages when anything non Christian was destroyed. 

Sooo... while complaining about an overbroad generalization of Muslims, you make the same about Christians and specifically the Catholic (large C) church.

I think St. Augustine and Thomas Aquinas might have a little something to talk to you about "destroying all things not Christian." Further the thousands (tens of thousands?) of monks that spent most of their life painstakingly transcribing works of the Romans and Greeks (pre-Christian!) have a nit to pick as well.
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MechAg94

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Re: Evidence of alien life expected in next few decades
« Reply #69 on: April 09, 2015, 09:43:08 AM »
Because its true? The early Christian Catholic-State was a bunch of self serving aholes that wanted to keep the masses down and profit for themselves.
That may be true, but they weren't the ones who destroyed the library of Alexandria or a lot of other stuff.  What ancient knowledge is the Catholic Church accused of destroying?  Yes, they wanted to control the Christian Faith and consolidate power, but that sort of thing wasn't exactly unique in the ancient world.  

Also, how much of that "Muslim" knowledge was developed by Muslims versus taken from people they conquered/slaughtered or gained through trade from India or China?  I think I was told stuff like that about Muslims when I was younger also.  I don't think it was true or at least not the whole truth.
« Last Edit: April 09, 2015, 10:51:03 AM by MechAg94 »
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birdman

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Re: Evidence of alien life expected in next few decades
« Reply #70 on: April 09, 2015, 11:31:05 AM »
Indeed. The very, very, very, tiny 48 billion or so years worth of the universe that we can even see contains 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 stars. That's just stars, not planets, planetoids, asteroid, moons, etc. The Hubble has been finding multiple planets around stars like crazy over the last few years. These are incomprehensibly large numbers of surfaces that could potentially support life, may support life in the future, or could have supported life in the past. It's a four dimensional game of hide and seek.

Not the Hubble, Kepler.  Kepler views a large area of sky continuously and looks for transits, Hubble has a really REALLY small FOV so it is a poor survey instrument.

Just wait till the metric-butt-loads of data from the LSST hit!

Something I've been wondering, how huge of a ball of ice would it have to be to create the amount of water that there is.
Why do some people even think that the water came from somewhere else?

Because it couldn't have come from somewhere else...it either was early bombardment during accretion, or later bombardment, but since it would be virtually impossible for the earth to accrete free hydrogen, it literally had to come from ice.

Ben

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Re: Evidence of alien life expected in next few decades
« Reply #71 on: April 09, 2015, 11:51:21 AM »
Not the Hubble, Kepler.  Kepler views a large area of sky continuously and looks for transits, Hubble has a really REALLY small FOV so it is a poor survey instrument.

Sorry, yup - my bad.
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Re: Evidence of alien life expected in next few decades
« Reply #72 on: April 09, 2015, 12:08:16 PM »
There's an old thought experiment known as the Drake Equation.  There are even calculators that will tell you how many civilizations should be around as a result.  This one even estimates how far apart they would be.

We know it DID happen, because of us. The question is thus whether it's happened(or will happen) elsewhere.  The sheer number of stars in our universe simply means that even if you plug state lottery level odds into the unknowns, while you might end up with us being the only intelligent life in the Milky Way, it's unlikely that we're the only one in the Galaxy.  Meanwhile, while still rare, planets with life, just not 'intelligent' life, would be relatively common.

Plugging in 10% for most of the variables gives an expected separation between communicative civilizations of almost 3k ly.  That's far enough that it's probable that we'd have a long while before we could detect them - we've only been listening, kinda-sortof, for less than 100 years.

No, we know we are here but can only speculate on our origins.

We actually really know little to nothing. We have some good working theories.

Our cosmology and our working understanding of evolution is very limited. Science speculates that life arose from inanimate matter but has no proof.  

Adapting an old saying to the modern reliance on probabilities that can be manipulated by inputs.

There are lies, damnable lies and probabilities.
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Re: Evidence of alien life expected in next few decades
« Reply #73 on: April 09, 2015, 12:51:01 PM »
Because its true? The early Christian Catholic-State was a bunch of self serving aholes that wanted to keep the masses down and profit for themselves.

No, because it is ignorant anti-Roman Catholic kool-aid.  And protestant and then anti-clerical political propaganda.

Now, don't get me wrong, I am not a Roman Catholic and, in fact, consider the office of the Roman Pope to be but one instance of an anti-christ.  So, not exactly a Roman apologist here.  But I am interested in facts and getting things right, especially in the face of laughable and laughably easy to debunk propaganda.

Let us get a few things in order.

1. The Christian church did not go around destroying non-Christian works as policy in antiquity, the Dark Ages, Middle Ages, or Renaissance.  The Christian church had its beginnings in the Levant and spread throughout the Mediterranean first and incorporated pagan philosophers where it saw fit.  Plato and Aristotle top among the pagans.  See Augustine of Hippo and Thomas Aquinas for some serious chewing on pagan philosophy as applied to the early and Medieval Church.  The very existence of these men, their works, and the thread that connects them across roughly 1000 years debunks your assertions.

2. During and after the fall of the western Roman empire, fluency and literacy in languages outside of the vernacular and church Latin declined.  The last translation of pagan Greek writers into Latin done in the West for centuries was done in the late 6th century AD.  Those served the Dark Age & Medieval church for centuries...and were known to be originally written by non-Christians.  Those following would not have known a non-Christian book written in Greek from a Christian book written in Greek.  Because they could not read Greek.  If it wasn't in Latin, they likely could not read it.

3. Many Pagan and Christian books were lost during the fall of western Rome and the Dark Ages.  Primarily due to:
a. Declining prosperity that reduced population, literacy, and the infrastructure necessary to support luxuries like private libraries.
b. Deliberate destruction by PAGAN raiders sacking monasteries for treasure and destroying what they could not put to use.  Like pretty much all of the books.
c. Aforementioned decline in literacy in Greek and other tongues leading to not knowing the value of not losing some books.

4. Muslims were not the primary keepers of non-Latin Western knowledge during the Dark Ages.  That was done mostly by the Eastern Roman Empire / the Byzantine Empire / Constantinople.  Constantinople held on until the 1400s and became a go-to destination when those in the lands of the former western empire recovered enough to be curious about more than living hand-to-mouth, starting in the AD1000s and really picking up steam in the AD1200s.  Those nasty Roman Catholics set sail to Constantinople, learned Greek and other foreign tongues, and brought them back to the West.  Yes, there were some copies gleaned from the Muslims, but the better ones and more came from "The Greeks" as the Byzantines were known.  Also, libraries in the West were raided for books that had somehow managed to survive.  That (re-discovery of forgotten books) happened several times and allowed later Renaissance writers to shamelessly plagiarize earlier writers and claim the innovations as their own.

5. There was no "Christian Catholic-State."  Yes, Christianity became approved state religion for the Western Roman Empire after Constantine, but ecclesiastical governance was mostly separate from state gov't, leading to friction between them.  And the developing Christian states in the West had no unified state gov't. Also, the Great Schism happened in AD1054, which separated Roman Catholicism from Eastern Rite / upper case "O" Orthodox Church.  Thus: the largest, longest-lived, and most closely aligned with the state church was not the Roman church, but the Easter Rite church.  The one that never forgot Greek and preserved the books of the pagan writers through antiquity, the Dark Ages, and the Middle Ages through into the Renaissance.

6. It was intellectual innovation in the Middle Age Roman Church that laid the foundation for modern science.  Again, beginning in the AD1000s and accelerating in the AD1200s.  The primary intellectual revolution and paradigm shift was performed by theologians, as theology was the ultimate course of study and the best minds went into theology.  They allied their understanding of God, God's creation, and God's Laws with early pagan logic/reason, science and philosophy and made modernity literally thinkable.

7. The lands conquered by Islam had an inverse intellectual arc from the West.  The lands they conquered many times had great intellectual traditions and communities: Bagdad, Damascus, the Levant, Spain, etc.  For a while, the tumult generated much intellectual ferment as these established and somewhat moribund communities were infused with intellectually curious Muslim go-getters.  This, however, did not last and the more Islamicised a city became, the more squashed its intellectual life.  Those that managed to stay out of the drive for Muslim orthodoxy held out the longest.  Still, it was a downward arc, just as the West was recovering.

8. The fathers of the Reformation (Luther, Calvin, Zwingli) were, more or less, concerned with getting Christianity right.  After they died and folk separated out, follow-on Protestants with other motives took up the printing press and used propaganda to make political hay, partly by turning the RC church into an anti-intellectual monster.  And the RCs wrote similar things about the Protestants.

9. The anti-clerical sorts from the Renaissance onward used those talking points and expanded on them even unto this day.

10. The Renaissance was a reactionary movement against too much reason and logic in the RC church and intellectual life.  The Medieval RC Church took pagan logic and philosophy books, went all Spinal Tap(1), and turned the Logic Amps up to "11."  Besides, rigorous logic is hard

===================================================

A fine resource is Hannen's God's Philosophers: How the Medieval World Laid the Foundations of Modern Science ( http://www.amazon.com/Gods-Philosophers-Medieval-Foundations-Science-ebook/dp/B003B02OJQ/ref=sr_1_3?ie=UTF8&qid=1428589896&sr=8-3&keywords=foundations+of+modern+science )

A nice review/overview can be found here:
http://www.strangenotions.com/gods-philosophers/

Hannen was not the first to document all this, but he is the most readable.  I have read several of the earlier works he relied on and they were informative but a bit dry. They are mentioned in Hannen's bibliography and the review linked above.  Hannen is quite enjoyable to read.



(1)
Nigel Tufnel: The numbers all go to eleven. Look, right across the board, eleven, eleven, eleven and...
Marty DiBergi: Oh, I see. And most amps go up to ten?
Nigel Tufnel: Exactly.
Marty DiBergi: Does that mean it's louder? Is it any louder?
Nigel Tufnel: Well, it's one louder, isn't it? It's not ten. You see, most blokes, you know, will be playing at ten. You're on ten here, all the way up, all the way up, all the way up, you're on ten on your guitar. Where can you go from there? Where?
Marty DiBergi: I don't know.
Nigel Tufnel: Nowhere. Exactly. What we do is, if we need that extra push over the cliff, you know what we do?
Marty DiBergi: Put it up to eleven.
Nigel Tufnel: Eleven. Exactly. One louder.
Marty DiBergi: Why don't you just make ten louder and make ten be the top number and make that a little louder?
Nigel Tufnel: [pause] These go to eleven.
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roo_ster

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Re: Evidence of alien life expected in next few decades
« Reply #74 on: April 09, 2015, 01:18:13 PM »
If it wasn't for the Muslims and their science/mathematics/medicine (and libraries), there would have been a lot of knowledge lost during the dark ages when anything non Christian was destroyed. 

If you are alluding to the library at Alexandria there is a lot of misinformation out there about that also.

http://www.ancient.eu/article/207/
For the invisible things of him since the creation of the world are clearly seen, being perceived through the things that are made, even his everlasting power and divinity, that they may be without excuse. Because knowing God, they didn’t glorify him as God, and didn’t give thanks, but became vain in their reasoning, and their senseless heart was darkened. Professing themselves to be wise, they became fools.