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Author Topic: Should be an interesting afternoon weather-wise  (Read 1242 times)

Brad Johnson

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Should be an interesting afternoon weather-wise
« on: May 19, 2015, 02:57:53 PM »
Dewpoints in the mid-60s, CAPE pushing past 2500, precipitable values approaching 2 inches, a low pressure area stalled to our northeast, and an impressively tight dryline with almost 40 deg F dewpoint swing over less than 40 miles. All we need is a little heat and things will become... exciting.

Morning clouds cleared a good bit earlier than expected. This has pushed up temps by 10 deg F in the last hour. Another 5 degs is likely enough to break mid-level capping and start the show, leaving plenty of nice sunny afternoon to keep pumping heat into things. Chasers will have a field day.

Brad
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bedlamite

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Re: Should be an interesting afternoon weather-wise
« Reply #1 on: May 19, 2015, 03:01:09 PM »
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Jamisjockey

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Re: Should be an interesting afternoon weather-wise
« Reply #2 on: May 19, 2015, 03:11:00 PM »
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JD

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wmenorr67

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Re: Should be an interesting afternoon weather-wise
« Reply #3 on: May 19, 2015, 03:12:19 PM »
Yeah they are expecting things to get interesting around here later tonight and all the way into the weekend.  Starting to feel like Groundhog Day around these parts.
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Re: Should be an interesting afternoon weather-wise
« Reply #4 on: May 19, 2015, 03:38:24 PM »
Forecast says we have a week's worth of rain to look forward to.

Not sure how we can still be in drought conditions, since I detect the squirrels starting to evolve gills.
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Brad Johnson

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Re: Should be an interesting afternoon weather-wise
« Reply #5 on: May 19, 2015, 09:50:40 PM »
Guess we dodged a bullet. Dry line has moved east of us taking severe weather chances with it. Looks like the folks from DFW metro area up through southern Oklahoma are getting their poop reinserted, though.

Brad
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It's all about the pancakes, people.
"And he thought cops wouldn't chase... a STOLEN DONUT TRUCK???? That would be like Willie Nelson ignoring a pickup full of weed."
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jim in anchorage

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Re: Should be an interesting afternoon weather-wise
« Reply #6 on: May 19, 2015, 09:58:19 PM »
Quote from: roo_ster on May 19, 2015, 03:38:24 PM
Forecast says we have a week's worth of rain to look forward to.

Not sure how we can still be in drought conditions, since I detect the squirrels starting to evolve gills.
:laugh:
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RoadKingLarry

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Re: Should be an interesting afternoon weather-wise
« Reply #7 on: May 19, 2015, 11:50:01 PM »
The lake where my boat lives is right at 10' above normal. The Corps of Engineers are working on the area below the dam and outflow is severely restricted. The area down stream of the spillway is already trying to flood so very little water can be let out of the lake. We are forecast for an addition 2"+ of rain. Things could get interesting on Oologah Lake in the next couple of weeks.
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Brad Johnson

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Re: Should be an interesting afternoon weather-wise
« Reply #8 on: May 20, 2015, 12:05:37 AM »
Checked levels this afternoon. Lake Texoma is seventeen feet above conservation pool level with much precip predicted in coming days. Wish we could port some of that up here on the plains. Lake Meridith is up almost 20 feet from three years ago. But all that means is it's only 76 feet low now.

Brad
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It's all about the pancakes, people.
"And he thought cops wouldn't chase... a STOLEN DONUT TRUCK???? That would be like Willie Nelson ignoring a pickup full of weed."
-HankB

roo_ster

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Re: Should be an interesting afternoon weather-wise
« Reply #9 on: May 20, 2015, 11:24:15 AM »
Quote from: Brad Johnson on May 20, 2015, 12:05:37 AM
Checked levels this afternoon. Lake Texoma is seventeen feet above conservation pool level with much precip predicted in coming days. Wish we could port some of that up here on the plains. Lake Meridith is up almost 20 feet from three years ago. But all that means is it's only 76 feet low now.

Brad

http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide
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roo_ster

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Brad Johnson

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Re: Should be an interesting afternoon weather-wise
« Reply #10 on: May 20, 2015, 02:01:49 PM »
Another good resource. Includes real-time levels/graphs.

http://waterdata.usgs.gov/tx/nwis/current?type=lake

Brad
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It's all about the pancakes, people.
"And he thought cops wouldn't chase... a STOLEN DONUT TRUCK???? That would be like Willie Nelson ignoring a pickup full of weed."
-HankB

Brad Johnson

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Re: Should be an interesting afternoon weather-wise
« Reply #11 on: May 26, 2015, 01:14:34 PM »
Our eastern counties will be a haven for roofers this afternoon. CAPES hovering very near 5KJ/KG. That's as high as I've ever seen it in the 25 yrs I've been keeping an eye on it. Fortunately mid atmospheric shear is minimal so not much potential for spinny nasty things. Unfortunately the high dewpoints and huge influx of gulf moisture are setting up a near-perfect scenario for very large and persistent non-rotating supercells. In other words, hail. Lots and lots of hail. Big. Friggin. Hail. Wx Svc chatter is predicting widespread baseball+ sizes with high probability of much larger stuff in not-so-isolated areas.

Brad
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It's all about the pancakes, people.
"And he thought cops wouldn't chase... a STOLEN DONUT TRUCK???? That would be like Willie Nelson ignoring a pickup full of weed."
-HankB

Jamisjockey

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Re: Should be an interesting afternoon weather-wise
« Reply #12 on: May 26, 2015, 05:12:33 PM »
We had pea hail last night.....

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JD

 The price of a lottery ticket seems to be the maximum most folks are willing to risk toward the dream of becoming a one-percenter. “Robert Hollis”
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