Author Topic: The sturm maybe getting a little drang.  (Read 2097 times)

Scout26

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The sturm maybe getting a little drang.
« on: October 31, 2015, 10:30:25 PM »
http://news.yahoo.com/german-governments-ability-act-threatened-merkel-deputy-says-085934177--business.html

One needs a brief primer on German Politics.   There are three major parties in Germany: Christian Democrat Union, Christian Social Union, and the Social Democrats.  There are also minor parties: Free Democrats, Alliance90/Greens, and The Left; they generally get about 5% of the vote and usually have a role as "kingmakers".

Just so you can tell your players here's the scorecard (Ben correct me if I'm off on anything.)  

CDU- The major Center-Right party of Germany (except Bavaria) Produced Adenauer, Kohl and Merkel, among others as Chancellors.
CSU- The major Center-Right Party of Bavaria, sister to the CDU at the Federal level, and tends to be a little more rightish then the CDU.
These two would be the "Republicans" although more to the right then the current US versions.
Social Democrats- The Major Center Left party of Germany (no separate party in Bavaria).  Think Democrats, but actually not as far left as the US Democrats.

Minor Parties:
Free Democrats- These are the Tea Party libertarians.   Free market folks along with Human rights.
The often works together with the CDU/CSU to form the government.  (Although the FDP went into the .gov with the SPD from '69-'82.  Go figure.)
Alliance 90/The Greens-  All they seem to give a *expletive deleted*it about is Nuclear Power and their hatred for it.  They angle for that Ministerial job.
The Left- Pretty much straight up Commies and Socialists.

Now German elections are quite different as each person has two votes.  
Quote
The federal legislature in Germany has a one chamber parliament—the Bundestag (Federal Diet); the Bundesrat (Federal Council) represents the regions and is not considered a chamber as its members are not elected. The Bundestag is elected using a mixed member proportional system. Voters have two votes: with their first they elect a member of Bundestag for their constituency, with the second they vote for a party. Subject to a party obtaining a minimum threshold vote, the overall seat assignment in the Bundestag is proportionally distributed according to the second (party) votes. A party who wins more districts in a given state than it is entitled to according to the number of party votes it received in that state keeps these "overhang" seats.

So to clarify.   Half the seats are won by one of the guys on the ballot who won the election in your district.  The other half are divided among the parties based upon the "Second Vote" breakdown, with only those parties getting at least 5% of the votes getting seats.  

This second vote is what most of the smaller parties angle in on.   IIRC, they asked you to use your "Second Voice" to vote for them.   Simply because they knew that their guy they ran in your district would get killed between the two major parties, but in getting that "Second Voice" vote, they could still get a few (or quite a few) seats in the Bundestag.  Enough to often play at least Kingmaker, or better, in forming a Government.  

Which is why this article is interesting.  There's a growing split between the CDU and CSU due to the fact that the Bavarians are feeling the brunt of the Immigrant Invasion.   Their social services are being stretched to beyond the breaking point while the Northern (and eastern) more states are only getting a trickle (Plus the fact that the vast majority of former US military bases, which are perfect for housing large numbers of folks in a fairly small footprint are also in.......Bavaria  (Hesse and Rhineland-Westphalia would be 2-3 or 3-2 on that list).    And should the CSU get honked off enough, they may walk out of the government.  Which means, Hans and Franz get to vote fairly soon after being overrun with about million immigrants.    Which means they can use their "Second Voice" to Vote for someone not one of the major parties.  Like one of those Donald Trump-like anti-immigrant parties.

Now remember at any given time there were ~300,000 Americans running around the German Countryside, however, the differences between US Soldiers and the Immigrants are shocking.

1.  PVT Snuffy was rich.  And just as in any good garrison town in the US, outside the main gate, the Local National economy around bases were geared to relieve GI's from as much of their money, as quickly as possible.  I can't see these immigrants spending at the anywhere NEAR the level of the US Solider/Airman.
2.  We hired lots of Local Nationals to work for us.   I had more LN's; Translators, Typists, Clerks and secretaries then I did Military when I worked at the Provost Marshal's office.  
3.  Many of the older folks had seen or knew of someone who had experienced treatment first hand from the Russians after War II, and they were pretty happy to have us there.   So if those boys from across the pond are willing to die for me, I'm okay with their rock music and crude manners, just spend more money..  
4.  We paid for whatever damage we caused and worked hard to be good neighbors and trusted allies.  While quite a few of the older Germans absolutely loved us, along with all the little kids, many of the mid-aged Germans did not however, NOT like us.   Yes, we were the brash kids that got your daughter pregnant or took her away from you and back to land of the Big PX and Round Door Knobs and occasionally we trashed your yard/farm.   But we really did love your daughter (and she loved us), and we handed you a nice pile of cash when we came back and apologized for driving over your Azaleas and putting ruts in your fields, that you easily plowed out come spring.  Oh, and sorry about that chicken, but seriously DM11,000 for ONE chicken?!?!?!

Where was I.  Oh, the rise of the "Neo-Right" anti-immigrant parties.   Should some of the smaller Right-wing Anti-Immigrant parties get their acts together and merge, with a strong "Second Voice" campaign, they could cause quite a bit of mischief as Kingmakers to change German Immigration Policies and perhaps even EU policies.  What was it Tam said,
Quote
The Euros have a proven zero-to-jackboots time lower than just about anybody on the planet. The migrant muzzies might want to think about what happens when they get Hans and Pierre feeling good and scared and backed into a corner.
??

Yeah, should the immigrants push things just a bit too far, and they probably will at some point sooner rather than later, they might themselves find out that the Aloha Snack Bar chain has been permanently closed, and a new string of Gasthauses opening from Aleppo to Baghdad and points south....

edited: to correct typos and add clarity
« Last Edit: December 06, 2016, 08:33:36 AM by scout26 »
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Get up to the roundhouse on the cliff-top standing.
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Sweet memories to drive us on,
for the motherland.

Scout26

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Some days even my lucky rocketship underpants won't help.


Bring me my Broadsword and a clear understanding.
Get up to the roundhouse on the cliff-top standing.
Take women and children and bed them down.
Bless with a hard heart those that stand with me.
Bless the women and children who firm our hands.
Put our backs to the north wind.
Hold fast by the river.
Sweet memories to drive us on,
for the motherland.

dogmush

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Re: The sturm maybe getting a little drang.
« Reply #2 on: November 01, 2015, 07:53:13 AM »
Semi related:

http://www.breitbart.com/london/2015/10/28/shotguns-virtually-sold-austria-sales-fuelled-fear-migrant-crisis/


I think Tam is correct, I just worry that the cops and bleeding hearts will end up going jackboot on their nationalist neighbors.  I also (selfishly, I suppose) REALLY hope we don't get pulled into whatever ethnic cleansing Europe fires up.

RoadKingLarry

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Re: The sturm maybe getting a little drang.
« Reply #3 on: November 01, 2015, 08:20:44 AM »
I shudder to think which side of that mess Obama would put us on.
If ye love wealth better than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, go home from us in peace. We ask not your counsels or your arms. Crouch down and lick the hands which feed you. May your chains set lightly upon you, and may posterity forget that you were our countrymen.

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brimic

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brimic

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Re: The sturm maybe getting a little drang.
« Reply #5 on: November 01, 2015, 09:28:07 AM »
Quote
One of the few people, in fact, who seem enthusiastic about the plan for Sumte is Holger Niemann, 32, an admirer of Hitler and the lone neo-Nazi on the elected district council. He rejoices at the opportunities the migrant crisis has offered.

“It is bad for the people, but politically it is good for me,” Mr. Niemann said of the plan, which would leave the German villagers outnumbered by migrants by more than seven to one.

Quote
Reinhold Schlemmer, a former Communist who served as the mayor here before and immediately after the collapse of East Germany, said people like Mr. Niemann would “have been put in prison right away” during the Communist era.

“Now they can stand up and preach,” he said. “People say this is democracy, but I don’t think it is democracy to let Nazis say what they want.

I'm calling for a Thunderdome match.
"now you see that evil will always triumph, because good is dumb" -Dark Helmet

"AK47's belong in the hands of soldiers mexican drug cartels"-
Barack Obama

Ben

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Re: The sturm maybe getting a little drang.
« Reply #6 on: November 01, 2015, 11:38:38 AM »

Just so you can tell your players here's the scorecard (Ben correct me if I'm off on anything.)  

You seem to be more up on the political procedures than I am.  :laugh:

As to your thesis, I have to agree. I haven't emailed with any cousins over the last few weeks, so don't have the "resident view" of the current crisis, but Bavaria does tend to get the ass end of these deals. The Turks are a good example. Even my more liberal relatives were pretty up in arms over that mass migration in the 80s-90s. When the only way you can afford to build a house is to do a large part of the work yourself, but a migrant moves in down the street into state built housing (that's bigger than yours) for free (while not working), then has four kids to get the extra state money that lets them drive a Mercedes while you drive your VW Golf, it can grind the gears of even the most liberal. This current "migration" seems to be a good deal more insidious, especially given the German Federal influence.

Bavaria is for the most part one of the more conservative areas of Germany. Munich can be a little like "San Francisco light",  but otherwise the region is made up of a lot of people from smaller communities that all grew up in conservative religious (mostly Catholic) households. So while they may tend socialist for things like health care, and while grumbling about it, be okay with higher taxes for "the good of the state", they mostly still have a very strong ethic regarding not putting up with gadabouts that won't work and won't integrate, let alone paying for them.

Berlin seems to see things differently. Taking advantage of that little village of 100 people mentioned above is a good example (notice it's at the old East German border). In many ways you can think of Bavaria as being Texas or Arizona, with Berlin (DC), touting the socialist progressive world traveler view that makes them feel good, and to some extent look good on the world stage, while sticking the negatives of their policies on the borders of regions far removed from the Capitol.

Again using that small village as an example, much of Germany is still small towns. Whereas you can stick 50,000 "refugees" into a city of 1,000,000 and while causing problems, not have them insurmountable to the point of residents losing it, when you stick 1000 into a town of 3000, have them not integrate and see a rise in crime, that's when you will get people saying, "You know, that Hitler guy may have been on to something..."
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Scout26

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Re: The sturm maybe getting a little drang.
« Reply #7 on: November 01, 2015, 05:29:53 PM »
Again to expand that was(is) one thing I admired about the German election system.

I was there in the late 80's and there was an election going on.  Helmut Kohl (CDU/CSU) vs some sacrificial lamb of the SPD.  The question really wasn't if Ol' Helmut and the CDU/CSU was going to win, but by how much.   The SPD and the FDP focused on winning the "Zweitstimme" election. 

Here's a better description (from the 2013 election) if anyone is interested.:

http://blogs.canoe.com/parker/news/how-to-figure-out-a-german-election-as-if-anyone-could/
Some days even my lucky rocketship underpants won't help.


Bring me my Broadsword and a clear understanding.
Get up to the roundhouse on the cliff-top standing.
Take women and children and bed them down.
Bless with a hard heart those that stand with me.
Bless the women and children who firm our hands.
Put our backs to the north wind.
Hold fast by the river.
Sweet memories to drive us on,
for the motherland.

Battle Monkey of Zardoz

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Re: The sturm maybe getting a little drang.
« Reply #8 on: November 01, 2015, 06:00:52 PM »
Yep. It's boiling over there. And when the Bavarians have had enough, the will go full *expletive deleted*it hammer on the problem. I have friends in Bayreuth, was stationed there and lived there for almost 8 years. They are not happy.
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Andiron

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Re: The sturm maybe getting a little drang.
« Reply #9 on: November 01, 2015, 06:56:33 PM »
They need to find their spines soon, or it won't matter.
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just Warren

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Re: The sturm maybe getting a little drang.
« Reply #10 on: November 01, 2015, 08:52:36 PM »
Perhaps their will will triumph.
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Boomhauer

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Re: The sturm maybe getting a little drang.
« Reply #11 on: November 01, 2015, 09:01:16 PM »
Quote
a migrant moves in down the street into state built housing (that's bigger than yours) for free (while not working), then has four kids to get the extra state money that lets them drive a Mercedes while you drive your VW Golf, it can grind the gears of even the most liberal.

Sounds a little like here

« Last Edit: November 01, 2015, 09:19:54 PM by Boomhauer »
Quote from: Ben
Holy hell. It's like giving a loaded gun to a chimpanzee...

Quote from: bluestarlizzard
the last thing you need is rabies. You're already angry enough as it is.

OTOH, there wouldn't be a tweeker left in Georgia...

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BLOOD FOR THE BLOOD GOD! SKULLS FOR THE SKULL THRONE! AND THROW SOME STEAK ON THE GRILL!

roo_ster

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Re: The sturm maybe getting a little drang.
« Reply #12 on: November 01, 2015, 09:13:57 PM »
Perhaps their will will triumph.

Leni willin' and the creek don't rise.
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roo_ster

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just Warren

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Re: The sturm maybe getting a little drang.
« Reply #13 on: November 01, 2015, 09:22:56 PM »
I strongly advise against bloodletting to solve political issues except at the gravest extremes but I'm a realist enough to know that this is one of those things that will just suddenly start and no one will be able to stop once it gets going.
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roo_ster

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Re: The sturm maybe getting a little drang.
« Reply #14 on: November 01, 2015, 09:36:04 PM »
I strongly advise against bloodletting to solve political issues except at the gravest extremes but I'm a realist enough to know that this is one of those things that will just suddenly start and no one will be able to stop once it gets going.

Oh, it will eventually stop.  Just hard to figure out "where."
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roo_ster

“Fallacies do not cease to be fallacies because they become fashions.”
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Scout26

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Re: The sturm maybe getting a little drang.
« Reply #15 on: November 02, 2015, 01:42:37 PM »
Yep. It's boiling over there. And when the Bavarians have had enough, the will go full *expletive deleted*it hammer on the problem. I have friends in Bayreuth, was stationed there and lived there for almost 8 years. They are not happy.

615th MP Co?
Some days even my lucky rocketship underpants won't help.


Bring me my Broadsword and a clear understanding.
Get up to the roundhouse on the cliff-top standing.
Take women and children and bed them down.
Bless with a hard heart those that stand with me.
Bless the women and children who firm our hands.
Put our backs to the north wind.
Hold fast by the river.
Sweet memories to drive us on,
for the motherland.

MechAg94

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Re: The sturm maybe getting a little drang.
« Reply #16 on: November 02, 2015, 10:49:24 PM »
I strongly advise against bloodletting to solve political issues except at the gravest extremes but I'm a realist enough to know that this is one of those things that will just suddenly start and no one will be able to stop once it gets going.
It seems that naked force and real threats are the only things that really get the attention of the commie leftists. 
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Andiron

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Re: The sturm maybe getting a little drang.
« Reply #17 on: November 03, 2015, 08:53:29 PM »
It seems that naked force and real threats are the only things that really get the attention of the commie leftists. 
 
That's one of the truest statements I've read in a while.  And it's applicable to many groups besides socialists. 

Most of the people on that side of the argument are idiots,  and it doesn't pay to assume they should know better.
"Leftism destroys everything good." -  Ron

There is no fixing stupid. But, you can line it up in front of a wall and offer it a last smoke.

There is no such thing as a "transgender" person.  Only mental illness that should be discouraged.

Scout26

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Re: The sturm maybe getting a little drang.
« Reply #18 on: November 15, 2015, 10:01:33 PM »
I'm giving this one CPR before it gets all zombiefied.

Given the events in Paris, Merkel's "All Y'All, kommen Sie hier, bitte" is going to come up against a chorus of "Hmmmm, Ich denke nicht." from her own party come Monday morning.  It'll be interesting to see if she still pushes "Open Borders", and if there's a call for a vote of No Confidence...

Interesting times indeed.

 
Some days even my lucky rocketship underpants won't help.


Bring me my Broadsword and a clear understanding.
Get up to the roundhouse on the cliff-top standing.
Take women and children and bed them down.
Bless with a hard heart those that stand with me.
Bless the women and children who firm our hands.
Put our backs to the north wind.
Hold fast by the river.
Sweet memories to drive us on,
for the motherland.